7th INTERNATIONAL FORUM ON TOURISM STATISTICS
9-11 June 2004, Stockholm (Sweden)
tourismforum@scb.se
NEW RESEARCH LINES ON TOURISM INFORMATION
SYSTEMS: POTENTIAL DEMAND ANALYSES
LUIS VALDÉS1, EMILIO TORRES2, EDUARDO DEL VALLE3
Tourism Information System of Asturias
University of Oviedo
Abstract: Studies on Potential Demand detect and analyse quantitatively and
qualitatively the future tourism trends of the potential source markets, providing
both private and public policy makers with valuable information for their
decision-making. The methodology of Potential Demand Analysis develops an
analysis procedure which collects information on the current demand and services,
the socio-economic characteristics of the potential source markets, their holiday
habits, the image they have about the destination and the type of product and
service which are likely to be demanded. This synthesis allows the design of new
products and services, as well as the adaptation of tourist infrastructures to that
Potential Demand. The Tourism Information System of Asturias (SITA) has been
developing this kind of studies since 2000 and this paper aims at presenting the
main scientific and technical features of this methodology, the advantages and
disadvantages, the difficulties and the solutions the SITA has experienced.
I. INTRODUCTION
Traditionally, the main components of a Tourism Information System (TIS) are
based on three fundamental pillars: the analysis of current tourism demand, the analysis
of current offer and the macroeconomic analysis of tourism activity (WTO, 2002). In
the last ten years several experiences, more or less complete, have been carried out and
among them the regional system SAETA (Aurioles, 2000) and the Asturian SITA
(Valdés, 1997) in Spain.
1
Director
Sub-director
3
Coordinator
Tourism Information System of Asturias
C/ Tomás y Valiente 1, E-33201 Gijón (SPAIN)
http://www.sita.org
e-mail: sita@correo.uniovi.es
2
However, the growing needs for information to help private and public policymakers in decision-making require new measuring tools which allow a better
knowledge of the tourism activity and its implications. We can distinguish four broad
research areas the TIS will have to deal with in the near future:
 Tourism in private accommodation (Laimer, 1999; Javor & Kalcic, 2000
Cortina et al., 2002; Gismondi & Mirto, 2002; Valdés & Torres, 2003).
 Further deepening in methodologies of tourist expenditure estimation (WTO,
2000; Canadian Tourism Commission et al., 2002; Valdés et al., 2003).
 Tourism
sustainability
indicators
(OECD,
1993;
Dupeyras,
2002;
EUROSTAT, 2002; Ministerio del Medio Ambiente, 2003).
 Potential Demand Analyses.
In this sense, the Tourism Information System of Asturias (SITA) has been going
into the aforementioned research lines to enhance the recognition of Tourism’s socioeconomic importance and its future role as a major provider of jobs and economic
growth, and, in particular, since 1999 it has implemented several statistic operations to
know the Potential Demand of the region, given the need of public and private policymakers to carry out short- and long-term policies.
Traditionally, the study of the tourist demand has been outlined from the
viewpoint of the destination, that is, analysing the habits of the visitors' trip, their
preferences, attitudes, behaviours and valuations during their trip in the visited place.
Research in destination presents clear advantages of time and cost, allowing to structure
and to know the profile and the behaviours of the visitors of a region. However, it is
necessary to recognize its descriptive limitation, because although it analyses the
behaviour of the consumers of products and tourism services of the current visitor, it
does not detect the potential. This descriptive approach obviates new segments of
visitors involving a weakness in tourism commercialisation plans as they repeatedly
influence in the same markets and tourism typologies.
The Demand Analyses regarding Potential Destination (PDA) should be framed in
this context. Said analyses solve these lacks and substantially improve knowledge of the
tourism demand. Basically they consist in research on the characteristics of the trips of
2
the residents in a city and the fundamental aims are determining and segmenting the
potential of that concrete geographical market, taking as reference the perceptions on a
concrete destination, generically denominated Potential Destination. The Tourism
Information System of Asturias has defined and analysed four large blocks of potential
source markets of visitors to Asturias applying the PDAs regarding Asturias, a region
located in the north of Spain, as a Potential Destination: the Atlantic market (Valdés,
2002c), the Castilian market (Valdés, 2002d, 2002d), the Cantabrian market (Valdés,
2002a, 2002e) and the Levantine (Valdés, 2003) (Figure 1).
In this type of Analyses, there are two main problems to solve. The first difficulty
is the determination of well defined geographical areas. These must be previously
valued and evaluated by means of an exploratory analysis which foresees interest in
them with a view to obtaining valid PDAs. This should enable the carrying out of an
appropriate tourism promotion plan in these markets and adaptation of the offer in the
Potential Destination. The second inconvenience of this type of studies is that it is not
based on current behaviours, as it is the case of surveys in destination, but on past
experiences and on future perceptions, and therefore they should be treated with the
right amount of consideration and caution, especially when it is sought to quantify
potentials markets.
Figure 1: Potential markets for Asturias.
Castilian
market
La Coruña
Vigo
Bilbao
León
Oporto
Atlantic
market
San Sebastián
Cantabrian
market
Palencia
Burgos
Valladolid
Valencia
Levantine
market
3
In this work the main methodological characteristics of the PDAs developed by
the Tourism Information System of Asturias are presented. The approach of this
research line has meant the methodological design of PDAs paying special attention to
the principles and guidelines characteristic of scientific research. This research is
developed in five phases: establishment and definition of the objectives of the research,
determination of the geographical environment of interest, survey design, analysis of the
information and dissemination of results. Below, the most relevant characteristics in the
different phases of this research line are detailed.
II. OBJECTIVES OF THE POTENTIAL DEMAND ANALYSIS
The PDAs carried out by SITA have five fundamental objectives:
i) Determination of the geographical environment of interest;
ii) Analysis of the holiday habits of the residents;
iii) Study of their holiday habits with regard to the destination;
iv) Evaluation of their choice dynamics of tourist destinations;
v) Forecasting the frequency and characteristics of trips in source with regard to
the Potential Destination.
The methodology proposed for the attainment of these objectives is based on a
socio-economic analysis of the resident population of the geographical environment
considered of interest, on the study of the current behaviour of the visitors to this region
in the destination and in the design of a survey in the place of residence.
4
III. DETERMINATION OF THE GEOGRAPHICAL ENVIRONMENT OF INTEREST
The first phase to carry out a PDA regarding a Potential Destination consists of
the identification, as a market of interest, of points or geographical areas where the
second phase, consisting of a survey of the resident population, will be developed. Like
this, the determination of such geographical environments is carried out based on four
fundamental principles:
1. The geographical principle of vicinity, in time and / or distance is the first
essential element when thinking about the capturing of new tourism markets,
more so if one of the objectives of the tourism plan of the Potential Destination
is to obtain a deseasonalization of the tourist activity. Analysis of the main
communication routes, usually overland and air, the frequency of public
transport services, as well as the characteristics of the journey are essential
elements to determine the geographical areas of interest. In the case of public
and private transport, both overland – car, bus and train – and air, Aza and
Valdés (2003) have developed a specific methodology which analyses the
flows of travellers with Asturias as destination or source.
2. A second approach to establish the geographical environment of interest is
based on secondary statistical sources elaborated by Statistical Institutes, Local
Observatories, Chambers of Commerce, etc. and which present the main
socio-demographic characteristics of the resident population of the region:
number of inhabitants, income per head, employment rate, distribution of age /
population, etc..
3. The third research axis quantifies the current importance of this source market
regarding the Potential Destination (Valdés et al., 2001).
4. Lastly, the fourth variable of analysis in this first phase consists of analysing
the services and products which the tourists of the source market consume in
the Potential Destination, by means of a survey in destination which
determines the main characteristics of the current demand (Torres et al., 2002).
5
Independently of these objective considerations, certain analysis in other
geographical environments can also be carried out in function of institutional needs and
of the tourism policies of the different governments or organisms in charge of tourism
promotion.
IV. METHODOLOGY OF THE SURVEY
Once the geographical environment of the PDA is specified regarding a Potential
Destination, the following phase consists of the design of a survey in said environment
which contributes information on the resident’s holiday habits and the dynamics of their
election of the tourist destination.
Like this, and following the proposed objectives (knowledge of holiday habits, of
choice of destinations and of perceptions, attitudes and experiences), it is established
that the object population of this survey are the residents over 18 years of age who
travel for holiday or leisure reasons. The absence of the sample frame means the design
of a combined sampling of quotas plan, in function of age, sex and neighbourhood
residence, and of random routes. To obtain data without seasonal bias, usually the
duration of the fieldwork is limited habitually to ten consecutive days in low tourist
season with a maximum sampling error of 5% at the confidence level of 95%.
The amount of information required for the analysis of potentiality implies that
the best procedure to obtain it is by means of a personal interview structured by means
of a questionnaire. This is made up of a total of 28 questions and it identifies the object
population's main tourism habits as for the planning of holiday trips, their perspectives
and perceptions on the Potential Destination
The obtained information is structured in six areas of knowledge or of interest: the
population's holiday habits, dynamics of choice of destination, knowledge of the
Potential Destination, configuration of a trip to the Potential Destination, comparative
analysis between regions and classification variables. This information allows, among
other things, to identify potential visitors, to generate new products or to adapt the offer
to the potential demand and to configure certain specific actions of tourism promotion.
6
Breaking down the different informative blocks, according to the variables which they
are composed of, the following areas of knowledge are obtained (Figure 2):
a) Geographical environment. Are all those variables referring to the
geographical localization of the interviewee: city, neighbourhood, autonomous
community.
b) Holiday habits. Are the group of variables which reveal the fundamental
characteristics which conform the tourist trips that the residents habitually
carry out like for example the duration and frequency of their trips, the
destinations of the trips, the type of accommodation used and the activities
which they carry out during their free time.
c) Choice dynamics of a destination. Are the variables which describe the process
that leads to the selection of one place or another as a tourist destination.
These consist of choice reasons, in the design of the trip, in the aspects of the
accommodation, in the search for information and in the reasons for renting
the accommodation.
d) Journey to the Potential Destination. Is a block of variables which tries to
identify the degree of knowledge of the Potential Destination based on the
realization of previous trips to the Potential Destination. The main purpose for
the trip, the availability of some private accommodation in the Potential
Destination and the season or frequency of the trip are analysed.
e) Configuration of the trip to the Potential Destination. Are those variables
which describe a hypothetical trip to the Potential Destination like the
possibility or wish of the interviewee to choose it, the organization of the trip,
the search for information, the configuration of the trip and the price which
they would be willing to pay for it in function of a series of parameters like
accommodation type, type of board and the inclusion of excursions and
transfers to the Potential Destination.
f) Perceptions on the Potential Destination. Is the group of variables which
shows the degree of knowledge, the ideas or the interior feelings which result
from previous visits to the Potential Destination and other bordering regions,
7
or from the image they have in the event of not having visited. This highlights
the weaknesses and strengths of the Potential Destination as opposed to other
competitor regions.
Figure 2: Variables of the questionnaire.
AREAS OF KNOWLEDGE
GEOGRAPHICAL ENVIRONMENT
HOLIDAY HABITS
CHOICE DYNAMICS OF DESTINATION
PREVIOUS VISITS TO THE POTENTIAL
DESTINATION
CONFIGURATION OF THE TRIP TO THE
POTENTIAL DESTINATION
PERCEPTIONS OF THE POTENTIAL
DESTINATION
VARIABLES
























CONTROL VARIABLES



City
Realization area
Autonomous community
Duration of the trip
Destination
Accommodation type
Frequency of the trips
Activities
Sport activities contracted
Reasons for choice of the destination
Design of the trip
Aspects of the accommodation
Search for information
Reasons for renting the accommodation
Reason for the trip
Private accommodation in the Potential Destination
Possibility of choosing Potential Destination
Organization of the trip to Potential Destination
Search for information
Configuration of the trip to Potential Destination
Concepts / ideas on Potential Destination
Visited bordering regions
Weaknesses of Potential Destination as opposed to other
communities
Strengths of Potential Destination as opposed to other
regions
Sex
Age
Profession
V. DESCRIPTIVE RESULTS
The results of the research are structured in a descriptive analysis and in action
recommendations. This methodology allows us to describe the general configuration of
the habits of the travellers from the source market, how the configuration of a trip to the
Potential Destination would be and the perceptions which they have of the Potential
Destination (Figure 3).
8
Figure 3: Outline of descriptive results for the potential destination.
Type of trip in function of its duration
a) G
GENERAL
Short trips
Long weekends /
Bank holidays
Medium length trips
Long stay trips
e CONFIGURATION
OF THE TRIP
n
e
r
Destinations
Nearby regions
Other destinations
Type of accommodation
Type of accommodation according to
destination
Frequency of trip according to destination
Choice reasons of a destination
Configuration of the trip
Activities
Sport activities contracted
Importance of aspects of accommodation
Search for information
Reasons for contracting one type of accommodation or another
a
l
c CONFIGURATION
OF THE TRIP TO
o POTENTIAL
DESTINATION (PD)
n
Main purpose for trip
Private accommodation in PD
Possibility to choose
accommodation in PD
Theoretic planning of the trip to
PD
Global
City hotels
Rural accommodation
f
i
PERCEPTIONS ON
g THE POTENTIAL
DESTINATION (PD)
u
Organization of the trip to PD
Search for information
Estimated price of trip
Accommodation in the PD
Type of board
Excursions and transfers
Concepts / ideas on PD
Bordering regions visited
Weaknesses of PD as opposed to other regions
Strengths of PD as opposed to other regions
ration of the trip.
In this block of results a description of the habits followed by the residents during
their trips in function of their duration is carried out, of the most frequent destinations,
the type of accommodation chosen. Other aspects analysed are reasons for choice of
destination, the configuration of the trip, activities carried out, sport activities
contracted, the importance of aspects of the accommodation, the search for information
and the reasons for renting one accommodation or another. In short, the following
characteristics are detailed:
9
a.1) Type of trip in function of its duration. The distribution of frequencies of the
most habitual configuration of trips is obtained according to their duration (short trips,
long weekends and bank holidays, medium length and long trips). As each type of trip
presents characteristics which are very different from those of specific tourist
behaviours it is necessary to analyse them separately according to the nearness of the
destination, the type of accommodation used and the frequency of the trip.
 Destinations. Are the most frequent destinations in general terms, and are
classified into four groups: in the same province, in the autonomous
community, in near autonomous communities and in other destinations.
Analysing the obtained results, the place which represents the Potential
Destination can be valued within the group of destinations. Usually in short
trips the most frequent destinations are near to the place of residence of the
interviewee, while for trips of a longer duration, destinations which are further
away are preferred, that is to say, the duration of the trip and the distance to
the destination hold an inverse relationship.
 Accommodation type. According to the duration of the trip, the type of
accommodation used is obtained (hotel, rural tourism, camp site, second home,
houses of family and friends) (Figure 4).
Figure 4: Type of accommodation.
10
 Accommodation type according to destination An analysis of the type of
accommodation chosen according to the destination is carried out, and like this
the variation of accommodation type is detected according to the distance to
the destination.
 Frequency of trip according to destination. The relevance of a market not only
resides in its size but also in its mobility. For this, the frequency with which
trips are carried out in function of the elected destination is fundamental.
a.2) Choice reasons of a destination. The reasons which lead tourists to choose
one destination or another are analysed, falling upon the most influential, such as
climate, recommendations, heritage both natural and cultural, price, etc. The mentioned
reasons are checked to see if they fit in with the configuration of the current offer of the
Potential Destination and if not, opportune measures are suggested to adapt that offer to
the potentialities of the demand.
a.3) Configuration of the trip. Valuation of importance. In the design of a trip it is
important to know which are the most significant aspects that are considered in its
elaboration and planning, paying attention to the valued elements, such as accessing
information and the contracting of the trip through travel Agencies, the interest for
weekend offers, the acceptance of vouchers or discount checks in the accommodation or
having tourism packages.
a.4) Activities. For an integral design of the trip it is convenient to know the
activities which the tourists carry out during their holidays.
a.5) Sport activities contracted. In the case of tourists interested in doing sport
activities it is necessary to know which they would be willing to contract with the
purpose of adapting the offer to the necessities of the demand.
a.6) Importance of aspects of the accommodation. This is the valuation which is
attributed to certain accommodation aspects and it identifies which attributes are most
relevant for the consumer, such as for example price, comfort, setting, services, etc.
(figure 5).
11
Figure 5: Importance of aspects of the accommodation.
Activities
Architecture
and design
Extra services
Valued
aspects
Setting and
environment
Price
Comfort of
facilities
Others
a.7) Search for information. It is fundamental to know the most used method in
the search for information about the chosen destination by the residents, because in
function of the obtained results the most convenient advertising media can be suggested,
be it press, radio, specialized pamphlets, etc.
a.8) Reasons for renting one accommodation or another. One of the most relevant
variables to design the commercialisation of an establishment comes from knowing the
reasons which motivate tourists to rent one accommodation or another. The coding and
analysis of the main reasons are an essential determinant element for later promotion
recommendations and adaptation of the tourist offer.
b) Configuration of the trip to the Potential Destination.
In a second descriptive block, the positioning of the Potential Destination in the
originator market is presented according to the perceptions shown by the tourists from
the source market.
12
b.1) Main purpose for the trip. In the case of the interviewee having previously
carried out trips to the Potential Destination, the purpose for this trip is asked, because
in some cases it can be indicative of the motivations for possible future trips to the
Potential Destination.
b.2) Private accommodation in the Potential Destination. This refers to the
possibility which the interviewed citizens have of using non-regulated accommodation,
this is, second home or houses of friends and family in the Potential Destination. For
those people who have private accommodation, their trips in function of the period of
the year in which they use it are characterized, showing whether non-seasonal use
exists.
b.3) Possibility to travel to the Potential Destination. With this variable, the
potentiality of the source market regarding the Potential Destination for carrying out
future visits is identified. By means of a scale of three values (no possibility, perhaps,
and very probably) an indicator of the potentiality of the Potential Destination is
provided which will be related to the perception on the Potential Destination.
b.4) Organization of the trip to the Potential Destination. In the event of wishing
to go to the Potential Destination on holiday, it is interesting to know what the
organization of the trip, as to the use of tourism intermediaries or not, would be (tourism
package, travel agencies, acquaintances, on one’s own account, etc.) in order to
establish the most appropriate strategies in commercialisation (Figure 6).
Figure 6: Organization of the trip to the potential destination.
13
b.5) Search for information to travel to the Potential Destination. This variable
identifies the most used means for obtaining information on the Potential Destination
and falls upon the advertising media with greater penetration, studying the relationship
to the means used for a search for information of an arbitrary destination (Figure 7).
Figure 7: Where would information be looked for in the case of wishing to
travel to the potential destination?
Search for information
on destination
Tourism offices
Travel agencies
Books/guides
Internet
Friends and family
Others
b.6) Planning of the trip to the Potential Destination. This is the most frequent
configuration as for accommodation type, board, activities, transfers and prices which
the travellers of the object city of the study are willing to pay for a weekend trip and for
a stay of one week for a standard trip.
 Estimated price of the trip. Minimum, middle and maximum prices are
estimated which on average the travellers from the source market are willing
to pay for a weekend trip and for a stay of one week. The knowledge of the
different levels of prices allows a price policy and services coherent with these
preferences to be designed ( Figure 8).
14
Figure 8: Estimated price of the trip.
Estimated price of trip
Weekend
Long stay
Mean
Mean
Standar deviation
Standard deviation
 Accommodation in the Potential Destination. This variable shows which
accommodation type the tourists of the source market would prefer for their
stay in the Potential Destination.
 Board. The managerial sector is interested in knowing the type of board
(accommodation only, accommodation and breakfast, half board or full board)
which these potential tourists would choose for a weekend or vacation stay.
 Excursions and transfers. The inclusion or not of excursions and transfers
during the stay in the Potential Destination can show differences according to
its duration, for which a frequency chart with both types of trip can be
interesting to compare them.
c) Perceptions of the Potential Destination.
The third analysis block works with the ideas or concepts of the image of the
Potential Destination which the tourists who have previously travelled to the region
have as well as those who have not yet done so. Like this it will be verified if the image
which the Potential Destination tries to transmit coincides with the one really perceived.
15
c.1) Concepts / ideas on the Potential Destination. The ideas or concepts which
make up the image of the Potential Destination are of special interest for the design of
promotional campaigns, verifying the real perception of the Potential Destination
among the residents of the source market.
c.2) Nearby regions visited. An essential element to study possible market
competitors consists of determining if the bordering regions to the Potential Destination
receive more or less visitors, and like this be able to design a strategy, of either
cooperation, or of differentiation, according to the importance of the competitor
markets.
c.3) Weaknesses of the Potential Destination as opposed to other regions. To
identify the weakest factors of competitiveness in the Potential Destination regarding
other destinations and to influence them, the highlighted positive perceptions of the
different direct competitor regions of the Potential Destination over the Potential
Destination is described.
c.4) Strengths of the Potential Destination opposed to other regions. On the
contrary, to analyse the strengths of the Potential Destination, the most positive aspects
of the Potential Destination are described as opposed to the other regions. Like this, the
key elements of the region’s competitiveness within the national tourist offer can be
shown.
VI. CONCLUSIONS
The public and private organisms in charge of tourism administration and
promotion demand more and more specific and detailed studies, with a special interest
in those guided to deseasonalize tourist activity.
Potential Demand Analyses are valid instruments to provide the necessary and
required information in the decision making of different social agents, both at the level
of tourism administration and the managerial sector. They contribute information about
the potentiality of tourism growth of a destination for each concrete source market,
identifying the tourism habits of the source market, the tourism package which would
16
be demanded in the destination and the perceptions and sensations which the destination
transmits to the travelling population of the source market.
From the tourism administration, which intervenes in environments of activity
planning and of tourism promotion of a destination, the obtained results allow to
structure useful and valuable information for the programming of institutional or
managerial tourism promotion campaigns, to evaluate the source capacity of potential
tourists of that market and to carry out an estimation of the possible growth in the
number of visitors from this region to the Potential Destination in the short term. The
image of that destination regarding the potential market, allows the structure of more
direct and more specific communication policies, highlighting the excellent aspects of
the destination.
From the managerial environment, this type of market research is a valuable
source of information for the configuration of marketing policies in all their aspects,
product, price, distribution and communication. They permit an estimation of the
optimum duration of the trip to the Potential Destination for the residents of the source
market, and in accordance with their preferences, tourism programs with the alternatives
and products expected by the visitors are considered, evaluating the profitability of
these packages or tourism services. Also, the main attractiveness of the Potential
Destination is identified as opposed to other regions and those products or services
which are still not well known or valued enough.
The experience developed by the Tourism Information System of Asturias has
solved the methodological difficulties inherent to this type of studies in a satisfactory
way, adding and integrating this research line to the traditional studies of Supply and
Demand.
17
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