TOYOTA MOTOR (ADR)
TIMELINESS
SAFETY
TECHNICAL
5
2
5
Lowered 7/22/16
Raised 5/20/16
Lowered 8/19/16
BETA 1.00 (1.00 = Market)
High:
Low:
RECENT
PRICE
NYSE-TM
104.9
70.9
135.1
94.5
138.0
104.5
9.5 RELATIVE
DIV’D
Median: 18.0) P/E RATIO 0.65 YLD 3.4%
117.42 P/ERATIO 12.2(Trailing:
117.6
55.4
87.7
56.8
92.0
67.6
93.9
60.4
93.4
67.3
134.9
93.2
129.3
103.4
145.8
105.0
122.3
97.8
VALUE
LINE
Target Price Range
2019 2020 2021
LEGENDS
7.0 x ″Cash Flow″p ADR
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Options: Yes
Shaded area indicates recession
400
320
2019-21 PROJECTIONS
200
160
120
100
80
60
Ann’l Total
Price
Gain
Return
High 200 (+70%) 16%
Low 150 (+30%) 10%
Insider Decisions
NOT REPORTED
40
% TOT. RETURN 7/16
U.S. Institutional Decisions
3Q2015
163
to Buy
to Sell
140
Hld’s(000) 20378
4Q2015
148
167
19367
1Q2016
129
193
17691
Percent
shares
traded
3
2
1
1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
124.00 133.00 120.00 106.00 107.00 117.00 117.00 99.86
57.55 58.87 71.45 90.68 95.71 99.22 106.69 145.77
6.39
5.62
7.47 11.18 11.19 12.36 14.24 21.20
2.92
2.28
3.52
6.47
6.62
7.38
8.68 12.93
.40
.42
.60
.83
.97
1.31
1.80
2.33
1.92
3.87
4.64
7.81
9.92 18.61 13.35 15.30
31.00 29.87 32.82 42.88 46.66 49.81 55.70 65.82
1842.5 1825.0 1805.0 1804.5 1805.0 1805.0 1800.0 1800.0
27.7
25.9
14.6
9.1
11.6
12.0
13.5
8.9
1.80
1.33
.80
.52
.61
.64
.73
.47
.5%
.7%
1.2%
1.4%
1.3%
1.5%
1.5%
2.0%
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 3/31/16
192038 262394
14.2% 18.4%
Total Debt $116043 mill. Due in 5 Yrs $83500
11712 14883
mill.
13927 23284
LT Debt $83426 mill. LT Interest $4600 mill.
24.9% 38.8%
(36% of Cap’l)
7.3%
8.9%
Pension Assets 3/16 $19.6 bill. Oblig. $27.4 bill.
Pfd Stock None
143.0 1452.0
53059 59706
Common Stock 3146.8 mill. shares (equivalent
100263 118470
to 1573.4 mill. American Depositary Receipts) E
9.1% 13.1%
13.9% 19.7%
MARKET CAP: $185 billion (Large Cap)
CURRENT POSITION 2013
2014 3/31/16 11.0% 16.0%
21%
18%
($MILL.)
Cash Assets
Receivables
Inventory (FIFO)
Other
Current Assets
Accts Payable
Debt Due
Other
Current Liab.
ANNUAL RATES
of change (per ADR)
Sales
‘‘Cash Flow’’
Earnings
Dividends
Book Value
Fiscal
Year
Begins
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Fiscal
Year
Begins
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Calendar
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
41445 43477 19032
19772 17577 17566
18398 17817 17808
73004 70636 95015
152619 149507 149421
21490 20093 20082
75549 74707 32617
45511 42163 84185
142550 136963 136884
Past
10 Yrs.
5.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
6.0%
Past Est’d ’11-’14
5 Yrs.
to ’19-’21
4.5%
4.5%
13.0% 11.5%
13.0% 22.5%
3.0% 18.5%
4.5%
4.5%
ANNUAL SALES ($ mill.) B
Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31 Mar.31
65684 61745 60424 61615
58395 56259 56362 55864
57201 59310 61011 60466
65094 60000 61000 60906
61000 62000 62000 63000
EARNINGS PER ADR B C
Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31 Mar.31
3.94
2.82
3.15
1.86
3.66
3.11
3.17
2.37
3.36
3.21
3.32
2.39
3.54
2.00
2.00
2.06
2.45
2.50
2.50
2.65
GROSS QUARTERLY DIV’DS PAID D
Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31
-.757 - .730
-1.263 - 1.273
-1.956 - 1.273
-2.012 - 1.628
-2.015
Full
Fiscal
Year
249468
226880
237988
247000
248000
Full
Fiscal
Year
11.77
12.31
12.28
9.60
10.10
Full
Year
1.49
2.54
3.23
3.64
99.13
133.46
6.88
d2.84
2.74
15.11
65.41
1566.0
--3.4%
208995
9.8%
15221
d4448
-NMF
7224.0
64150
102425
NMF
NMF
NMF
NMF
93.04
129.90
11.13
1.44
1.18
9.85
71.01
1568.0
NMF
NMF
1.5%
203687
12.0%
15204
2251.0
31.8%
1.1%
25660
75402
111347
1.2%
2.0%
.7%
67%
82.78
145.68
10.91
1.89
1.22
12.97
83.76
1568.0
40.5
2.58
1.6%
228427
12.0%
14138
2965.0
NMF
1.3%
12492
77561
131329
1.4%
2.3%
1.0%
57%
82.19
142.80
10.38
2.20
1.27
11.77
85.04
1583.4
34.0
2.13
1.7%
226106
10.8%
12992
3450.0
60.6%
1.5%
6565.0
73516
134645
1.7%
2.6%
1.1%
55%
94.05
148.13
14.66
7.24
1.99
13.25
81.56
1583.7
11.7
.74
2.3%
234601
13.9%
11750
11465
30.7%
4.9%
9276.0
78020
129166
5.5%
8.9%
6.5%
27%
103.00 120.17 110.00
157.41 144.20 151.40
19.43 19.84 20.70
11.77 12.31 12.28
3.28
3.64
3.23
16.41 17.72 13.15
88.65 93.44 101.80
1584.9 1573.4 1572.0
9.8
10.1
10.3
.52
.51
.58
2.7%
2.9%
2.7%
249468 226880 237988
17.0% 15.3% 19.5%
12146 11738 13200
18653 19474 19304
27.4% 25.2% 39.0%
8.6%
8.1%
7.5%
10069 12537 11200
82990 83426 85000
140495 147013 160000
8.5% 11.0%
8.4%
13.3% 13.2% 12.0%
10.5% 10.1% 10.5%
24%
28%
21%
105.00
157.05
18.25
9.60
4.00
13.20
103.90
1573.0
105.00
157.55
19.15
10.10
4.35
13.30
106.75
1574.0
Bold figures are
Value Line
estimates
247000 248000
17.5% 18.0%
13600 14200
15100 15910
39.0% 39.0%
6.1%
6.4%
11400 11900
86000 87000
163400 168000
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
9.5%
7.5%
8.0%
32%
33%
THIS
STOCK
VL ARITH.*
INDEX
-16.4
-8.4
36.2
4.8
25.2
69.0
© VALUE LINE PUB. LLC
19-21
Translation Rate (Yen/$)A
Sales per ADR B
‘‘Cash Flow’’ per ADR
Earnings per ADR B C
Gross Div’ds Decl’d/ADR
Cap’l Spending per ADR
Book Value per ADR
Equiv ADRs Outst’g E
Avg Ann’l P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Ann’l Div’d Yield
Sales ($mill) B
Operating Margin
Depreciation ($mill)
Net Profit ($mill)
Income Tax Rate
Net Profit Margin
Working Cap’l ($mill)
Long-Term Debt ($mill)
Shr. Equity ($mill)
Return on Total Capital
Return on Shr. Equity
Retained to Com Eq
All Div’ds to Net Prof
110.00
173.40
23.55
13.40
D 5.15
13.85
117.70
1580.0
13.0
.80
3.0%
274000
19.5%
16000
21200
39.0%
7.7%
12800
92000
186000
10.5%
11.5%
10.0%
29%
BUSINESS: Toyota Motor Corp. is Japan’s largest automobile
maker. Sells various vehicles under the Toyota and Lexus (luxury)
nameplates. It is also a major player in the hybrid car market with
the Prius and Crown. The company commenced operations in
1933. It sells its vehicles in more than 170 countries and regions.
Has production facil. in Japan, U.S., and 21 other nations. Unit
sales in 12 months ended March ’16: 8.681 mill. cars, trucks, &
buses. For. sales: 74%. R&D: 5% of sales. Has 354,974 employ.
Chairman: Takeshi Uchiyamada. Pres.: Akio Toyoda. Incorporated:
Japan. Address: 1, Toyota-cho, Toyota City, Aichi Prefecture 4718571, Japan. U.S. address: 9 West 57th Street, New York, NY
10019. Tel.: 212-223-0303. Internet: www.toyota.com.
Toyota reported mixed results for the
fiscal first quarter of 2016 (ended
June 30th). Consolidated vehicle sales totaled 2.173 million units, a 3% rise from a
year earlier. This was a fairly strong showing, particularly given the suspension of
production of vehicles following the
earthquake in Japan in April. In fact,
Toyota reported that volumes in the country still grew 9%, to 511,000 units. However, international sales were nearly flat,
rising only 1%. The company posted yearover-year unit declines in North America,
the Middle East, and Africa, which were
essentially countered by solid gains in the
Philippines, Indonesia, and much of
Europe. Operating earnings during the period decreased from the prior-year tally,
largely due to unfavorable foreign exchange rates, particularly the appreciation
of the Japanese yen. This more than offset
ongoing cost-reduction efforts and more
streamlined marketing.
2016 earnings are expected to fall well
below the prior-year figure. While
management maintained its forecast for
consolidated vehicle sales for the year at
8.9 million units, lingering pressures from
unfavorable foreign exchange rates ought
to continue to hurt the bottom line, despite
ongoing cost-reduction initiatives. Sales in
North America should rebound a bit,
thanks to solid demand for pick-up trucks
and SUVs. Improving conditions in parts
of Asia should allow that region to post
decent results, as well. However, management looks for a further reduction in sales
in the Middle East, as the marketing environment continues to deteriorate with
weak oil prices. All told, we think share
net for the year will decrease 25% compared to the prior-year tally.
We have lowered the Timeliness rank
of Toyota shares by a notch, to 5
(Lowest). Short-term earnings are expected to continue to be hurt by unfavorable
exchange rates, despite management’s
best efforts to cut costs and optimize
marketing spending. Over the 3- to 5-year
period, these shares, which have a good
dividend yield of over 3%, offer aboveaverage price appreciation potential at the
recent quotation. The stock may also appeal to risk-averse investors, thanks to its
Above-Average Safety rank (2).
Iason Dalavagas
August 19, 2016
(A) At fiscal yearend.
(D) Before 15% Japanese tax for U.S. resi- (E) In mill. of ADRs. Each ADR equals 2 com(B) Fiscal year ends 3/31 of following year. dents. Dividends historically paid in late June mon shares.
(C) Diluted earnings. Based on U.S. GAAP. and December.
Next egs. report due early November.
© 2016 Value Line, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
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Company’s Financial Strength
Stock’s Price Stability
Price Growth Persistence
Earnings Predictability
A
80
35
15
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