GENERAL MOTORS NYSE-GM
TIMELINESS
SAFETY
TECHNICAL
5
3
5
RECENT
PRICE
5.2 RELATIVE
DIV’D
Median: NMF) P/E RATIO 0.28 YLD 4.9%
31.07 P/ERATIO 5.2(Trailing:
High:
Low:
Lowered 7/29/16
37.0
33.1
39.5
19.0
28.9
18.7
41.8
26.2
41.1
28.8
39.0
24.6
33.5
26.7
Target Price Range
2019 2020 2021
LEGENDS
4.0 x ″Cash Flow″ p sh
. . . . Relative Price Strength
Options: Yes
Shaded area indicates recession
New 2/25/11
Lowered 7/29/16
BETA 1.25 (1.00 = Market)
VALUE
LINE
128
96
80
64
48
40
32
24
2019-21 PROJECTIONS
Ann’l Total
Price
Gain
Return
High
60 (+95%) 21%
Low
40 (+30%) 11%
Insider Decisions
O N
to Buy
0 0
Options 13 0
to Sell
0 2
D J F
0 0 0
0 12 14
1 0 1
M A
0 0
9 12
0 0
M
0
0
0
J
0
1
1
16
12
% TOT. RETURN 7/16
U.S. Institutional Decisions
3Q2015
4Q2015
1Q2016
477
447
474
to Buy
to Sell
370
416
414
Hld’s(000)117129311509531169493
Percent
shares
traded
45
30
15
1 yr.
3 yr.
5 yr.
Nearly a year and a half after emerging from 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
one of the largest bankruptcy restructurings
--- - 86.88 96.04
ever, shares of General Motors were sold in
---7.38
9.20
the world’s largest IPO on November 18,
----2.89
3.88
2010. A total of 550 million shares, including
-----an over-allotment option, were sold in the
---2.69
3.99
IPO. 413 million of which had been owned
---- - 16.52 17.72
by the U.S. Treasury, 102 million from the
---- - 1560.7 1564.7
UAW trust, and 35 million from the Canadi----12.0
7.3
an government’s stake. The stock was
----.76
.46
priced at $33 a share. Another $4.6 billion in
------preferred shares were also sold.
--- - 135592 150276
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 6/30/16
Total Debt $75.3 bill. Due in 5 Yrs $53.0 bill.
LT Debt $54.1 bill.
LT Interest $550 mill.
(55% of Total cap’l)
Pension Assets 12/15 - $74.1 bill.
Oblig. $101.3 bill.
Leases, Uncapitalized Annual rentals $284 mill.
Common Stock 1,561,921,814 shares
(As of 7/14/16)
MARKET CAP: $48.5 billion (Large Cap)
CURRENT POSITION 2014
2015
($MILL.)
Cash Assets
18954 15238
Receivables
25605 26388
Inventory (FIFO)
13642 13764
Other
25469 22617
Current Assets
83670 78007
Accts Payable
22529 24062
Debt Due
14988 19562
Other
29170 27842
Current Liab.
65701 71466
ANNUAL RATES
of change (per sh)
Sales
‘‘Cash Flow’’
Earnings
Dividends
Book Value
Calendar
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Calendar
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Calendar
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Past
10 Yrs.
------
6/30/16
18923
30261
15026
10420
74630
26959
21230
27854
76043
Past Est’d ’13-’15
5 Yrs.
to ’19-’21
-3.5%
-5.0%
-9.0%
- - 12.5%
-8.0%
QUARTERLY REVENUES ($ mill.)
Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31
36884 39075 38983 40485
37408 39649 39255 39617
35712 38180 38843 39621
37265 42372 39238 39900
37825 42075 39500 40100
EARNINGS PER SHARE A
Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31
.67
.84
.96
.67
.30
.59
.97
1.19
.85
1.28
1.50
1.39
1.26
1.86
1.48
1.30
1.28
1.52
1.53
1.47
QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAID E
Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31
--------.30
.30
.30
.30
.30
.36
.36
.36
.38
.38
Full
Year
155427
155929
152356
158775
159500
(A) Diluted earnings. Excludes nonrecurring
gain/(loss): ’11, 70¢; ’12, (9¢); ’13, (76¢); ’14,
($1.40); ’15, (89¢); ’16 Q2, (5¢). Next earnings
report due mid-October. Quarterly total may not
Full
Year
3.14
3.05
5.02
5.90
5.80
Full
Year
--1.20
1.38
-------------
-------------
-------------
------------
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
111.43 103.62
12.34
8.31
2.92
3.18
--5.90
5.04
18.92 26.33
1366.4 1500.0
8.0
10.5
.51
.59
---
97.46 101.57 105.85 106.35
7.62 10.75 11.75 11.75
3.05
5.02
5.90
5.80
1.20
1.38
1.52
1.58
4.43
5.25
6.00
5.80
22.16 26.88 29.40 31.75
1600.0 1500.0 1500.0 1500.0
11.3
6.8 Bold figures are
Value Line
.59
.35
estimates
3.5%
4.0%
THIS
STOCK
VL ARITH.*
INDEX
4.9
-2.8
26.0
4.8
25.2
69.0
© VALUE LINE PUB. LLC
19-21
Revenues per sh
‘‘Cash Flow’’ per sh
Earnings per sh A
Div’ds Decl’d per sh
Cap’l Spending per sh
Book Value per sh
Common Shs Outst’g B
Avg Ann’l P/E Ratio
Relative P/E Ratio
Avg Ann’l Div’d Yield
120.90
13.00
6.25
1.76
6.60
39.65
1400.0
8.0
.50
3.5%
152256 155427 155929 152356 158775 159500 Revenues ($mill)
---- - 18.8% 16.8% 17.0% 17.5% Market Share
8.3%
9.9% 10.5% 10.5% Operating Margin
8.9%
9.2%
6.6%
8.5%
8235
8500
8600 Net Profit ($mill)
6172.0 7974.0 6188.0 6646.0 6199.0
4.6% 27.0% 23.0% 24.0% Income Tax Rate
11.7%
6.5%
- - 28.8%
4.0%
5.4%
5.8%
5.6% Net Profit Margin
4.6%
5.3%
4.1%
4.3%
5275 Working Cap’l ($mill)
4154.0 11315 16004 19089 17969 6541.0 800.0
8342.0 11543 10532 22452 31853 43549 54050 53550 Long-Term Debt ($mill) C
36180 38120 36244 42607 35457 40323 44100 47650 Shr. Equity ($mill)
9.5% 10.0%
9.5%
9.0% Return on Total Cap’l
14.7% 16.6% 13.8% 10.5%
17.1% 20.9% 17.1% 15.6% 17.5% 20.0% 21.0% 19.0% Return on Shr. Equity
8.6% 14.5% 15.5% 13.5% Retained to Com Eq
17.8% 25.5% 20.3% 12.6%
51%
27%
26%
27% All Div’ds to Net Prof D
25%
11%
15%
25%
169275
18.0%
10.5%
9250
25.0%
5.5%
4925
52050
55525
9.0%
16.5%
12.0%
28%
BUSINESS: General Motors Company is the nation’s largest
automobile manufacturer; sales represented 16.8% of North American U.S. car and truck market in 2015. Including strategic partnerships, GM manufacturers vehicles in over 30 countries, with sales
in over 120 nations. About 39% of wholsale vehicle sales volume
was generated outside N. America in 2015. Operations considered
‘‘Old GM’’ includes four major U.S. brands: Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, and GMC. Has about 215,000 employees. Operates OnStar
subsidiary. UAW Retiree Medical Benefits Trust owned 9.1% of
stock; officers & directors, less than 1% (4/16 Proxy). Chief Executive Officer: Mary T. Barra. Address: 300 Renaissance Center, Detroit, MI 48265. Tel.: 313-556-5000. Internet: www.gm.com.
General Motors remained in high gear
through the June quarter. The lion’s
share of the standout performance was
fueled by strength in U.S. retail sales.
Notably, average transaction prices across
all of the company’s models and brands
were up about $1,500 per unit, with fullsize pickups nearly doubling that figure.
Record business in China and a return to
profitability in Europe also contributed.
However, year-over-year comparisons
for the remainder of 2016 may fall
short of the mark. In addition to the
usual seasonality of a softer second half
for the entire industry, there is the as-yetunquantifiable fallout from the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union. Management estimates this could have an impact of up to $400 million in the second
half, mostly from a weaker pound sterling.
Also, as U.K. citizens put off buying decisions, retail car sales are likely to soften.
However, in light of the strong secondquarter showing, we have increased our
2016 share-net estimate by $0.20, to $5.90,
indicating a gain of 15% to 20% over the
prior-year tally.
China may be holding the swing vote
next year. Along with its joint-venture
partners, GM sold a record 1.81 million
vehicles there through June, up 5.3% from
the prior year. However, business is being
boosted by a tax break on smaller-engined
vehicles, which is set to expire at the end
of December. Absent any further stimulus
actions, sales growth there would likely
decelerate. Altogether, we are keeping our
2017 earnings estimate at $5.80.
An aggressive vehicle launch schedule
will play a key role in supporting
earnings. New or refreshed automobiles
represented about 26% of company sales in
2015, and GM aims to ramp that up to
40% by 2020. In addition to building up
brands, the strategy boosts profitability, as
pricing power is usually stronger on new
products. An ongoing cost-efficiency program (targeting over $5.5 billion by 2018)
should offset the increased investments in
engineering and technology.
Although untimely, GM stock remains
a compelling long-term holding. The
issue’s three- to five-year capital appreciation potential and dividend yield are both
comfortably above the Value Line median.
Mario Ferro
August 19, 2016
sum due to rounding. (B) In millions. (C) Long- March, June, Sep., and Dec.
term debt includes GM Financial securitized
notes payable. (D) Based on preferred
dividends before 2014. (E) Dividends paid late
© 2016 Value Line, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
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Company’s Financial Strength
Stock’s Price Stability
Price Growth Persistence
Earnings Predictability
B++
50
15
60
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