Month Day, Year
Equity Research
Ken Nagy
www.zacks.com
Natl Semicon
111 North Canal Street, Chicago, IL 60606
(NSM-NYSE)
NSM: Zacks Company Report OUTPERFORM
OUTLOOK
Analyst must write
Current Recommendation
Prior Recommendation
Date of Last Change
Current Price (03/05/10)
Six- Month Target Price
Outperform
Neutral
12/11/2005
$14.67
SUMMARY DATA
52-Week High
52-Week Low
One-Year Return (%)
Beta
Average Daily Volume (sh)
Shares Outstanding (mil)
Market Capitalization ($mil)
Short Interest Ratio (days)
Institutional Ownership (%)
Insider Ownership (%)
$15.98
$9.40
36.03
1.30
4,250,404
238
$3,487
4.09
76
5
Annual Cash Dividend
Dividend Yield (%)
$0.32
2.18
5-Yr. Historical Growth Rates
Sales (%)
Earnings Per Share (%)
Dividend (%)
-7.7
-29.4
39.6
P/E using TTM EPS
122.3
P/E using 2010 Estimate
P/E using 2011 Estimate
Zacks Rank
24.9
15.3
3
Risk Level
Type of Stock
Industry
Zacks Rank in Industry
Low,
Mid-Growth
Semi-Analog & M
10 of 12
ZACKS ESTIMATES
Revenue
(in millions of $)
Q1
(Aug)
2008
2009
2010
2011
Q2
(Nov)
472 A
466 A
314 A
365 E
499 A
422 A
345 A
377 E
Q3
(Feb)
Q4
(May)
453 A
292 A
305 E
377 E
Year
(May)
462 A
281 A
317 E
1,886 A
1,460 A
1,281 E
1,498 E
Q4
(May)
$0.35 A
-$0.26 A
$0.14 E
Year
(May)
$1.27 A
$0.28 A
$0.59 E
$0.96 E
Earnings per Share
(EPS is operating earnings before non recurring items)
2008
2009
2010
2011
Q1
(Aug)
$0.29 A
$0.33 A
$0.14 A
$0.24 E
Q2
(Nov)
$0.34 A
$0.14 A
$0.20 A
$0.25 E
Q3
(Feb)
$0.29 A
$0.04 A
$0.11 E
Zacks Projected EPS Growth Rate - Next 5 Years %
© Copyright 2016, Zacks Investment Research. All Rights Reserved.
11
KEY POINTS
Analyst must write
OVERVIEW
Analyst must write
Zacks Investment Research
Page 2
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INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
INDUSTRY OUTLOOK - POSITIVE
We believe that the semiconductor industry is a positive story in the second half of 2005, as inventory
issues have been resolved and seasonal consumer demand drives seasonally strong sales. The
Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) released its annual forecast for 2004-2007, with record 2004
sales of $213 billion rising 6% to $227 billion in 2005. The forecast projects that sales will grow at a
compound annual growth rate of 9.8% to $309 billion in 2008. According to the SIA, expected areas of
application strength include PCs (up 10%), digital cameras (up 15%) and digital TVs (up 65%).
We also believe there is a fundamental shift in the semiconductor industry from Corporate IT to
Consumer Demand. According to the SIA, more than 50% of the $213 billion in semiconductors sold in
2004 went into products purchased by consumers, rather than corporate IT departments. This proportion
will continue to grow in the years ahead, as consumers all over the world are captivated by the richness
and portability of digital media. Advances in computing, digital media processing and wireless technology
are enabling the industry to create lifestyle-changing devices and gadgets that could only be imagined a
few years ago. The changing nature of customers will affect every aspect of the business, from product
design to marketing to demand forecasting.
INDUSTRY POSITION
Analyst must write
Top 5 Public Companies in the
Ticker
ADI
ONNN
MXIM
NSM
FCS
Zacks Investment Research
industry
Market Share
Company
Analog Devices
On Semicon Corp
Maxim Intg Pdts
Natl Semicon
Fairchild Semi
19.49085%
17.11113%
15.92238%
14.12691%
11.48706%
Page 3
Zacks
Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Outperform
Outperform
www.zacks.com
RECENT NEWS
Analyst must write
VALUATION
Analyst must write
Industry Comparables
Pr
Chg
YTD
P/E
CurrFY
EPS
Gr
5Yr
Est
10.8
Price/
Book
Price/
Sales
Price/
CF
11.7
2.8
18.2
NATL SEMICON
-4.8
20.6
Industry Mean
Industry Median
S&P 500
-4.3
-7.3
0.7
22.5
20.5
14.8
11.7
12.5
3.5
3.4
3.8
3.6
3.7
2.4
17.6
17.1
12.6
MAXIM INTG PDTS
ON SEMICON
CORP
FAIRCHILD SEMI
MICROCHIP TECH
-7.6
20.4
13.5
2.3
3.5
26.5
-8.2
10.5
12.0
3.4
2.0
12.4
4.0
-7.1
10.0
24.6
-1.6
10.7
1.3
3.4
1.1
5.9
8.0
15.8
RISKS
Analyst must write.
Zacks Investment Research
Page 4
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INSIDER TRADING AND OWNERSHIP
Analyst must write.
PROJECTED INCOME STATEMENT & BALANCE SHEET
Natl Semicon
Income Statement and Balance Sheet
(Dollars in millions, except EPS data)
Sales
Cost of Goods Sold
SG&A
Other operating
expenses
Interest and other
Zacks Adjusted Income
before NRI
Net Income
Diluted EPS before NRI
Reported EPS
Cash & Marketable
Securities
Current Assets
Current Liabilities
Long Term Debt
Shareholder's Equity
05/05
1,913
892
256
05/06
2,158
885
274
05/07
1,930
758
311
05/08
1,886
672
316
05/09
1,460
544
136
05/10E
1,281
477
120
333
327
364
363
309
271
16
223
122
204
110
96
383
479
382
336
65
140
415
1.02
1.12
449
1.41
1.32
375
1.14
1.12
332
1.27
1.26
73
0.28
0.31
140
0.59
0.59
1,022
1,043
829
737
700
700
1,441
285
23
2,054
1,541
398
21
1,926
1,291
300
21
1,749
1,172
309
1,415
197
1,087
276
1,227
177
1,087
276
1,227
317
HISTORICAL ZACKS RECOMMENDATIONS
Zacks Investment Research
Page 5
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DISCLOSURES
The analysts contributing to this report do not hold any shares of NSM. Zacks EPS and revenue forecasts are not consensus
forecasts. Additionally, the analysts contributing to this report certify that the views expressed herein accurately reflect the analysts’ personal
views as to the subject securities and issuers. Zacks certifies that no part of the analysts’ compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly,
related to the specific recommendation or views expressed by the analyst in the report. Additional information on the securities mentioned in this
report is available upon request. This report is based on data obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to
accuracy and does not purport to be complete. Because of individual objectives, the report should not be construed as advice designed to meet
Zacks Investment Research
Page 6
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the particular investment needs of any investor. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change. This report is not to be construed as an
offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities herein mentioned. Zacks or its officers, employees or customers may have a
position long or short in the securities mentioned and buy or sell the securities from time to time. Zacks uses the following rating system for the
securities it covers. Outperform- Zacks expects that the subject company will outperform the broader U.S. equity market over the next one to
two quarters. Neutral- Zacks expects that the company will perform in line with the broader U.S. equity market over the next one to two quarters.
Underperform- Zacks expects the company will under perform the broader U.S. Equity market over the next one to two quarters. The current
distribution of Zacks Ratings is as follows on the 1104 companies covered: Outperform- 14.6%, Neutral- 78.3%, Underperform – 6.5%. Data is
as of midnight on the business day immediately prior to this publication.
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