Teaching Notes AT&T’s iPhone Addiction and Potential Withdrawal Introduction This case was developed for students who have taken at least one business model course, and one business strategy course. Further knowledge maybe needed from finance, management accounting and a minor understanding of the telecommunications industry. Students should be able to complete the required with the facts in the case. The first objective of the case is written to test the user’s ability to extract the business strategy from the case. The second objective is to analyze whether or not the company is creating and capturing value through analysis of net share gain and return on invested capital. The final objective is to identify the need for change, and to provide recommendation(s) on how to address the risks and capitalize on the opportunities. Learning Objectives To exercise the ability to extract important business strategy components from a case To demonstrate the ability to determine whether a company is capturing and/or creating value To demonstrate the capability to prioritize a diverse range of issues and opportunities To exercise the ability to analyze opportunities and use them to address the risks that AT&T is facing Case Synopsis It is early 2010 and the CEO of AT&T, Randall Stephenson, is worried about AT&T’s ability to maintain its revenue growth, given that AT&T’s exclusivity contract with consumer electronics giant Apple Inc (Apple) at the end of 2010. Students are assigned the role of a consultant who will try to understand AT&T and its business. In addition, students should try to determine AT&T’s performance through SRS and ROIC analysis. Based on the analysis, students should assess that there is a need for change and evaluate each of the two options. Students may want to provide further recommendations not explicitly stated in the case (i.e. drop a product line, or purchase a competitor or invest in a 4G network) which are encouraged though difficult to fully evaluate given the facts of the case. Analysis of Assigned and Suggested Questions 1. What is your role? You are Salim Ponniah, and you are a consultant. 2. What is AT&T’s current business strategy? Goals 1. To grow the wireless and high speed internet division 1|Page ©Kieng Iv 2. “AT&T is also focusing on strengthening communities; investing in people; leading with integrity; minimizing our environmental impact; connecting people and business; and leading innovation and technology” 3. To decrease customer churn 4. To be the market leader in every market it competes in 5. To create and capture value Core Activities What Mergers and acquisitions Marketing Bundling Partnering Connecting How Experienced management team that has been involved in numerous mergers Partnering with major sports organizations such as the NBA and USA swimming and social media Provides voice, data, IPTV and wireless services packages Exclusive contracts G network and experience in building networks through large investments Product Market Focus Majority of the revenue is from the United States Revenue Breakdown: Value Proposition Feature Bundled services Global connectivity – reaches 97% of the world’s economy Secure network Affordable prices Benefit Cost savings Only need to talk to one service provider One service provider for a multi-national business Comfort and ease of mind Willing to pay 2|Page ©Kieng Iv Variety of Services Continuously Faster Network (constant network upgrades) iPhone Choices Increase in upload and download speeds ‘Cool’ Strategy Statement AT&T’s goal is to be the number one provider of wireless services by providing a variety of services, a secure network, affordable prices and exclusive phones to its US wireless consumers by effectively managing contracts, bundling its services and connecting its users through its 3G network. Potential PEST: Smartphone growth, need for better networks, growing use of the Internet 3. Is AT&T creating and capturing value? Creating Value Use the Statement of Revenue Sources to determine whether or not value is being created for its customers Assumptions Needed: Growth rate o Weighted average the revenue segments from the growth rates given; or o The growth rate of the wireless market since it is AT&T’s core business and focus Churn rate – Any of the following are acceptable o Use the wireless division’s churn rate and assume the same churn rate for the rest of the revenue segments o Use the wireless division’s churn rate and assume 0% churn the rest of the revenue segments o Assume a churn rate of 0% for all the revenue segments No new adjacent or new lines of business since no information was provided in the case The weighted growth rate and the churn rate of the wireless division was used in the analysis Please see appendix A for the statement of revenue sources The net share gain is approximately (13B) which means AT&T did not create value in 2009 since more customers’ revenue left for a competitor than came from competitors. This indicates that competitors’ value propositions are more attractive relative to AT&T’s value proposition. Capturing Value NOPLAT Please see appendix B for detailed NOPLAT calculations Exclusions: Interest Expense: this expense is associated with financing decisions (i.e. the amount of interest-bearing debt) Equity in net income of affiliates: Income from international investments such América Móvil, Telmex and others which do not affect AT&T’s core operations 3|Page ©Kieng Iv Other income – net: Other income is related to a gain on sale of investment which is not part of AT&T’s core operations. Invested Capital Please see appendix B for detailed Invested Capital calculations Exclusions: Deferred Income Taxes: Too difficult to recalculate NOPLAT taking into consideration deferred income taxes Investments in Equity Affiliates: Investments relating to international investments such América Móvil, Telmex and others which do not affect AT&T’s core operations Debt maturing within One Year: This represents the portion of long-term debt that is within payable but the debt is related to a long-term financing decision as a opposed to operational activities. Dividends Payable: This is a financing decision similar to interest payable. Summary of Calculations ROIC 6% WACC 6.5% Spread (0.5%) Therefore, AT&T is not capturing value for investors because its 2009 ROIC is less than its 2009 WACC. 4. Is there a need for change? Based on the above analysis and the current situation with the iPhone, it should be clear that there is a need for change. 4|Page ©Kieng Iv 5. If there is a need for change, what option should AT&T pursue? Fit with Fit with Fit with Fit with Proposal Organizational management Environment Resources Capabilities preferences It is a market with Ability to Experience in DISH Network nearly 10% growth generate acquisitions and is the second Purchase rate for the next financing since takeovers largest satellite DISH five years. its debt to equity service provider Network is lower than Verizon Fit Fit Fit Fit A new market Network is Experience in First to market Exclusive (offering data on already in place forming exclusive which means Contract tablet devices) and due to wireless contracts with market leader with given Apple’s past market and Apple Apple history, success is experience with Tablet highly probable Apple Fit Fit Fit Fit Note: other answers are acceptable as long as analysis is supported with case facts. Option 1: Purchase DISH Network Potential Benefits: Growing subscriber base Will expand AT&T’s service offering Complements AT&T’s U-verse Offering Aligns with AT&T’s strategy of affordable pricing Growing industry – 9.7% in 2009 Will improve AT&T’s video efforts to allow it to compete more with cable companies Management is experienced in acquisitions Potential Disadvantages: Failed negotiations in the past because of DISH Network’s management was waiting for increases in the offer price Will need to obtain financing and will increase debt to equity ratio. This will result in reduced flexibility to pursue further acquisitions The cost of purchasing DISH Network could cost up to approximately 9 billion dollars for a 100% acquisition Note that further benefits and disadvantage may be discovered by students Option 2: Exclusive Contract with Apple Potential Benefits: First to market by offering data services to the tablet market Lots of marketing and hype for the Apple Tablet Leverage Apple’s strong reputation and following 5|Page ©Kieng Iv Apple tablet has signed an agreement with Electronic Arts to offer games which will increase need for data services Applications available will increase the need for data services to download them Large potential revenue stream (see calculations below) Wireless network infrastructure can be leveraged to provide data to the tablet Ability to bundle with AT&T wireless phone users Potential Disadvantages: User interface with the Apple Tablet has been said to have a steep learning curve Low bargaining power with Apple Verizon has a stronger network which may appeal to Apple and its customers more Uncertainty if Apple will offer exclusive partnership with AT&T Increase in Revenue Projections for Year 1 Low High Tablet Revenue $20,000,0001 $800,000,0002 Data Plan Revenue $360,000,0003 $2,700,000,0004 Total Revenue $380,000,000 $3,500,000,000 5 NOPLAT Margin 12% 12% Incremental NOPLAT $45,600,000 $420,000,000 Therefore it is expected that the project will have an incremental impact of $45,600,000 to $420,000,000 on NOPLAT for the first year. Note that further benefits and disadvantage may be discovered by students 6. If applicable, what are some barriers to implementation? Option 1 – Purchase DISH Network Employee culture clash because DISH network would go from a company to a division within the telecommunication giant Raising enough financing to purchase DISH Network Failed negotiation in the past Option 2 – Exclusive Contract with Apple Negotiating issues with Apple. It took 18 months to negotiate the initial iPhone contract and it came at many concessions for AT&T Can the current and future network handle the additional data usage capacity of tablets on the 3G network? Will the network be fast enough to satisfy Apple and consumer needs? Further concessions may need to made for the Apple Tablet in order to win the contract similar to those made for the iPhone contract Note that further barriers maybe identified 1 4,000,000 Tablets *500 Price*1% of Revenue 10,000,000 Tablets *800 Price*10% revenue sharing 3 4,000,000 Tablets *15 per Month*12 months*50% of tablets having a data plan 4 10,000,000 Tablets*30 per month*12 months*75% of tablets having a data plan 5 NOPLAT/Revenue=14,528,000/123,018,000 2 6|Page ©Kieng Iv Appendix A – Statement of Revenue Sources (Million’s) Total Revenue Adjacent market New Line of Business Revenue Revenue from Core Business Market Rate Growth Revenue from Market Growth Revenue Net of Market Growth Customer Churn Rate Revenue Lost from Churn Base Retention Revenue Revenue from Gain Share Net Gain Share Wireless Wireline Advertising Data Services AT&T Growth Rate FY 2008 124,028.00 FY 2009 $ 123,018.00 $ - % of 2008 Rev 99.2% 0% $ $ 123,018.00 0% 99% $ 12,526.83 10.1% $ 110,491.17 89.1% $ $ $ 102,000.63 8,490.54 (13,536.83) 82% 6.8% 10.1% 18% -$22,027.37 Market Growth Weight Growth 45% 18.5% 25% -0.3% 5% 12.0% 25% 5.0% Weighted Growth 8% 0% 1% 1% 10% Appendix B – Return On Invested Capital NOPLAT (Million’s) Operating Revenues Wireless service Voice Data Directory Other Total operating revenues Operating Expenses Cost of services and sales Selling, general and administrative Depreciation and amortization Total Operating Expenses Net Operating Profit Effective Taxes NOPLAT Effective Tax Rate $ 48,563.00 $ 32,314.00 $ 25,454.00 $ 4,724.00 $ 11,963.00 $123,018.00 $ 44,249.00 $ 37,321.00 $ 24,373.00 $ 5,416.00 $ 12,669.00 $124,028.00 $ 38,568.00 $ 40,798.00 $ 23,206.00 $ 4,806.00 $ 11,550.00 $118,928.00 $ 50,405.00 $ 49,556.00 $ 46,801.00 $ 31,407.00 $ 19,714.00 $101,526.00 $ 21,492.00 $ 6,963.77 $ 14,528.23 $ 31,526.00 $ 19,883.00 $100,965.00 $ 23,063.00 $ 8,047.57 $ 15,015.43 $ $ $ $ $ $ 32% 35% 30,146.00 21,577.00 98,524.00 20,404.00 6,933.30 13,470.70 34% 7|Page ©Kieng Iv Invested Capital (Million’s) Working Cash Accounts receivable Prepaid expenses Other current assets Total Current Operating Assets Accounts payable and accrued liabilities Advanced billing and customer deposits Accrued taxes Total Current Operating Liabilities Operating Working Capital Property, Plant and Equipment Goodwill Licenses Customer Lists and Relationships Other Intangible Assets Postemployment benefit Other Assets Total Invested Capital Investments in Equity Affiliates Nonworking Cash Total Funds Invested Invested Capital - Financing Method Debt maturing within one year Dividends payable Long-term Debt Postemployment benefit obligation Other noncurrent liabilities Common stock Additional paid-in capital Retained earnings Treasury shares Accumulated other comprehensive loss Noncontrolling interest Deferred taxes: net (asset)/liability Total Funds Invested check funds invested balances 2009 $ 2,460.36 $ 14,978.00 $ 1,572.00 $ 2,708.00 $ 21,718.36 2008 $ 1,792.00 $ 16,047.00 $ 1,538.00 $ 2,165.00 $ 21,542.00 2007 $ 1,970.00 $ 16,185.00 $ 1,524.00 $ 2,963.00 $ 22,642.00 $ 20,999.00 $ 20,032.00 $ 21,399.00 $ $ $ $ 3,849.00 1,874.00 $ $ 3,571.00 5,027.00 $ 26,865.00 $ (5,146.64) $100,093.00 $ 73,259.00 $ 48,759.00 $ $ $ $ $ 25,755.00 (4,213.00) 99,088.00 71,829.00 47,306.00 $ $ $ $ $ 29,997.00 (7,355.00) 95,890.00 70,713.00 37,985.00 $ 7,420.00 $ 5,644.00 $ $ 6,322.00 $236,350.36 $ 2,921.00 $ 1,341.64 $240,613.00 $ 10,582.00 $ 5,824.00 $ $ 5,728.00 $236,144.00 $ 2,332.00 $ $238,476.00 $ 14,505.00 $ 5,912.00 $ 17,291.00 $ 6,392.00 $241,333.00 $ 2,270.00 $ $243,603.00 $ 7,361.00 $ 2,479.00 $ 64,720.00 $ 14,119.00 $ 2,416.00 $ 60,872.00 $ 6,860.00 $ 2,417.00 $ 57,255.00 $ 27,849.00 $ 13,350.00 $ 6,495.00 $ 91,707.00 $ 39,366.00 $ (21,260.00) $ 31,930.00 $ 14,207.00 $ 6,495.00 $ 91,728.00 $ 36,591.00 $ (21,410.00) $ 24,011.00 $ 14,798.00 $ 6,495.00 $ 91,638.00 $ 33,297.00 $ (15,683.00) $ (14,408.00) $ 425.00 $ (17,057.00) $ 403.00 $ $ $ 22,529.00 $240,613.00 $ 18,182.00 $238,476.00 $ 22,895.00 $243,603.00 $ $ $ 4,170.00 1,696.00 - - (380.00) - - 8|Page ©Kieng Iv ROIC 2009 14,528 2008 15,015 236,247 6.1% 238,739 6.3% Decomposition of ROIC After tax operating margin (NOPAT/Revenue) Pre-tax operating margin (NOP / Revenue) Average capital turns (Revenue / Avg IC) Pre-tax ROIC Effective tax rate ROIC 12% 17% 0.52 8% 32% 6% 12% 19% 0.52 8% 35% 6% Analysis of operating margin Cost of services and sales Selling, general and administrative Depreciation and amortization Net Operating Profit (NOP before taxes) 41% 26% 16% 17% 40% 25% 16% 19% (26.29) 1.24 1.70 2.56 (21.27) 1.26 1.73 2.88 13.67 21.45 20.42 0.52 9.81 20.96 20.30 0.52 NOPAT Average IC ROIC (NOPAT/Average IC) Analysis of capital productivity (Revenue/ Avg IC) Operating WC turns (Rev / Avg Ops WC) Property & equipment turns (Rev / Avg P&E) Goodwill Turns (Rev/Avg Goodwill) Licenses Turns (Rev/Avg Licenses) Customer Lists and Relationships (Rev / Avg Customer Lists) Other Intangible turns (Rev / Avg Intangibles) Other Assets turns (Rev / Avg Other Assets ) Average capital turns (Revenue / Avg IC) 9|Page ©Kieng Iv Appendix C - Potential Rubric Capabilities Relevant & Credible Balanced & Logical Thorough understanding of strategy and how each of the components Includes a strategy complements one statement. another or do not complement one another. Addresses the ‘so what’ Appropriately Makes appropriate concludes: (a) is assumptions about business creating growth rates, and value for customers? churn with reasonable (b) is business support through use of capturing value? case facts. Business Strategy Components Demonstrates appropriate description of four (4) business strategy components Creating and Capturing Value Analysis Appropriately determines Revenue Growth, ROIC, Operating Margin, and Capital Turns performance trends Need for Change and Analysis of Options Addresses that there is a need for change or addresses that there isn’t a need for change. Uses the creating and capturing value analysis to support decision. Barriers to Implementation Provides 3+ potential barriers to implementation for option(s) selected Addresses how the barriers to implementation can be overcome. Communication Skills Solution is clear and and Conclusion written well. Grading Scale 66 C- to C+ Deep & Significant Solution integrates different components to help support an overall conclusion. B- to B+ Uses current situation to determine that there is a need for change (i.e. iPhone Contract and slower Network) Ties AT&T’s strategic position and current performance to identify and address implementation issues. Solution provides further insight beyond the teaching notes6 A- to A+ Adjusted Version of Week 1 ACC 684 PowerPoint Slide 19 , Nancy Vanden Bosch 10 | P a g e ©Kieng Iv