NATIONAL RURAL ADVISORY COUNCIL Bundarra EC–Declared Area Assessment February 2012 Summary Agricultural production in the Bundarra Exceptional Circumstances (EC) declared area predominantly comprises livestock grazing of beef cattle and/or sheep enterprises. Since the introduction of the Bundarra EC declaration in June 2010 and subsequent boundary alignment in November 2010, the area has experienced extremely high rainfall over the period March 2010 to December 2011. Over this 22 month period, the timing of seasonal rainfall and mild temperatures provided favourable production conditions. The improvement in seasonal conditions commenced mid 2010, establishing ample pasture and recharging water holdings. Discussions with producers in the area lead to the National Rural Advisory Council (NRAC) to a conclusion that the majority of producers have excess feed as a result of the season; nonetheless their preferred rebuilding strategy is to breed up rather than purchasing livestock in a strong market. Based on all information made available, NRAC recommends that the Bundarra EC declaration cease on 30 April 2012. Assessment As part of the review process, the New South Wales Department of Trade and Investment (NSW T&I) arranged an itinerary for NRAC to undertake an on-ground assessment of seasonal conditions in the area on 24 January 2012. NRAC met with local producers and considered advice from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), NSW T&I and officers of the New England and North West Livestock Health and Pest Authorities. The Bundarra EC-declared area is located on the Northern Plains area of NSW. NSW T&I estimates there are about 150 primary producers operating across the area. The region relies predominantly on livestock grazing of beef cattle and/or sheep enterprises. The north-west portion of the area has a negligible amount of dryland cropping (wheat, sorghum and soy beans). The Bundarra EC application was based on the cumulative effect of ineffective rainfall between March 2008 and February 2010. The application claimed that rainfall over this period had been very low in historical terms and ineffective for sustaining pasture growth and water supplies. ABARES’ analysis of Bureau of Meteorology rainfall data for the period March 2010 to December 2011 shows rainfall across the whole EC-declared area as extremely high (90th to 100th percentile). Seasonal breakdown of the data indicates that 2010 winter growing season rainfall was extremely high with the following 2010–11 summer growing season rainfall predominantly ranging from above average (70th to 80th percentile) to extremely high (increasing east to west) and 2011 winter rainfall being average across the whole EC-declared area. NRAC notes that New South Wales Government status reports of agricultural conditions in the New England Livestock Health and Pest Authority area have been satisfactory since November 2010 while the small portion of the North West Livestock Health and Pest Authority for the EC-declared area have varied between marginal and satisfactory for the same period. A common thread in the information relayed to NRAC by producers was that they have experienced two years of average or better seasons. The timing of rainfall has increased the sub-soil moisture profile, established solid pasture cover, and refilled dams, rivers and creeks. 1 The native perennial grasses appear to have recovered well across the area providing plenty of livestock feed. Discussions with producers indicated that although reassured by the amount of feed available for livestock, reduced applications of fertilizer over the last five years has in turn reduced soil fertility and the nutritional value of this feed source. In contrast to the EC application period, where the lack of stock water and the reduction of flow in reliable creeks was a major contributing factor in NRAC recommending the declaration, producers acknowledged that rainfall over the review period had fully recharged all water sources. Creeks were again flowing, and dams were now full. With water and feed sources now well established, producers have commenced rebuilding livestock numbers. Overall, NRAC concludes from producers’ comments that stocking rates are currently in the order of about 60 to 70 per cent of long-term average numbers and calving and lambing percentages have improved significantly over the last two seasons. While producers appeared confident in the season going forward, the high cost to purchase livestock, the ability and willingness to access additional operating finance and the impact of low nutritional value of pastures on growth and fertility will all inhibit their capacity to rebuild livestock to the long-term numbers required to generate financial recovery. Producers affected by the bushfires in November 2009 are still dealing with the legacy of damage to infrastructure. While NRAC is empathetic and acknowledges the hardship experienced by producers, it also recognises that fencing is an insurable product and does not constitute a substantive reason to extend an EC declaration. Whilst not directly within the scope of the EC review guidelines, NRAC acknowledges producers’ concerns about reduced income and diminishing cash reserves with many having taken off-farm employment to support their enterprises. NRAC considers there are a number of adjustment limitations affecting the long-term viability of these enterprises, particularly in the south-west of the EC-declared area. NRAC observed that relatively small property size and production mix may be impacting the viability of some enterprises. Notwithstanding these concerns raised by producers, based on the available information, NRAC considers that seasonal conditions have provided the majority of producers in the Bundarra EC-declared area the opportunity to return to typical farm management practices. Recommendation NRAC recommends that the Minister not extend the Bundarra EC declaration beyond 30 April 2012. 2 Area Description The Bundarra EC-declared area covers the following Parishes (Counties) in their entirity: Abington (Hardinge); Aston (Hardinge); Buchanan (Hardinge); Bundarra (Darling); Bundarra (Hardinge); Cameron (Hardinge); Chigwell (Hardinge); Clare (Hardinge); Clerkness (Hardinge); Clive (Gough); Cooper (Hardinge); Copes Creek (Hardinge); Darby (Hardinge); Darbysleigh (Hardinge); Drummond (Hardinge); Drummond (Murchison); Furber (Murchison); Gundamulda (Murchison); Ironbark (Darling); Keera (Murchison); Laura (Hardinge); Mayo (Hardinge); Mckinnon (Murchison); Mehi (Murchison); Munro (Murchison); New Valley (Hardinge); Swinton (Hardinge); and Tienga (Hardinge). EC Event The application was based on the cumulative effect of ineffective rainfall between March 2008 and February 2010. The application claimed that rainfall over this period had been very low in historical terms and ineffective for sustaining pasture growth and water supplies. EC Declaration History Declaration Industry Start Date Expiry Date EC declared All producers 29 June 2010 30 April 2012 EC boundary revised to include the Ironbark and Gundamulda parishes All producers 12 November 2010 30 April 2012 There are 150 primary producers in the Bundarra EC-declared area. 3 Production Systems as Recorded in the Original Application Enterprises The region relies predominantly on livestock grazing of beef cattle and/or sheep enterprises. The north-west portion of the area has a negligible amount of dryland cropping (wheat, sorghum and soy beans). Water Farm water storages, streams and rivers. Production The area is in the temperate climate zone. Average annual rainfall ranges from 650 mm to 800 mm with a summer dominant rainfall pattern. Rainfall reliability is highest in spring and summer (medium), low to medium in autumn and low in winter. The area is comprised of granite-derived soils of a sandy or sandy-loam structure. There are small areas of alluvial soils along watercourses and some ‘trap’ based soils. The granite and trap soils have a low water holding capacity requiring frequent rainfall to maintain soil moisture. Pasture production peaks in late spring to summer, with a lesser peak in autumn. The area is dominated by summer active (C4) native pastures requiring effective spring, summer and autumn rainfall to provide pasture growth. These pastures produce very little green feed after the onset of lower temperatures and frosts. NSW T&I advise that the area is only marginally suited to ‘common’ introduced pasture species (Phalaris, Ryegrass and Fescue) and that their feed value is limited. EC Review Guidelines The review process includes, but is not exclusive to, consideration of whether: seasonal, agronomic and resource conditions have provided an opportunity for the majority of producers within the Exceptional Circumstances declared area to begin to carry out typical farm management practices relevant to their enterprise type and production cycle; climatic conditions have enabled the majority of crop producers to carry out typical farm management activities such as allowing the planting and harvesting of their average crop area; rainfall and temperature in the main growing season has resulted in an increase in plant growth to enable the majority of livestock producers to carry out typical farm management practices and taking into long term trends, a return to average livestock numbers is underway; and there is sufficient water for livestock and domestic water use. Attachment ABARES’ advice 4