NATIONAL RURAL ADVISORY COUNCIL River Murray and Lower Lakes Corridor EC–Declared Area Assessment February 2012 Summary Agricultural production in the River Murray and Lower Lakes Corridor EC-declared area comprises perennial horticulture crops, annual vegetable crops, and dairy. Production for the majority of the area is primarily reliant on irrigation allocations from the Murray-Darling Basin storages, with only minimal production from dryland cropping and livestock production. Extremely high rainfall across the majority of the area throughout 2011 and increased irrigation allocations has provided favourable production conditions across the majority of the EC-declared area. These improved conditions have resulted in average or better yields of wine grapes and citrus and also increased sheep numbers as lambing percentages continue to rise. Based on all of the information made available, the National Rural Advisory Council (NRAC) recommends that the River Murray and Lower Lakes Corridor EC declaration cease on 31 March 2012. Assessment NRAC has reviewed seasonal conditions in the River Murray and Lower Lakes Corridor EC-declared area. As part of this assessment, the Department of Primary Industries and Regions South Australia (PIRSA) arranged an itinerary for a NRAC on-ground inspection of the area on 16–18 January 2012. NRAC met with local producers and considered advice from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) and PIRSA. Agricultural industries for the majority of the area are reliant on river flows and irrigation allocations for the production of perennial horticulture crops (grapes, stonefruit, and almonds), annual vegetable crops (potatoes, lettuce, and brassicas) and pasture for dairy. There is a small number of dryland (livestock and crop) enterprises interspersed along the corridor. There are three climatic zones in the region: desert in the north, with average annual rainfall ranging from 250–300 mm; grassland in the centre, with an annual average rainfall of 350–500 mm; and a more temperate climate in the south with an average annual rainfall of 600–900 mm. Rainfall in the area is more reliable in winter and spring, and although rainfall is beneficial to production, it is of secondary importance as the area is primarily reliant on irrigation water from the Murray River. Bureau of Meteorology data provided by ABARES shows that for the period November 2010 to December 2011 rainfall across the EC-declared area was predominantly extremely high (90th to 100th percentile). ABARES’ advice indicates that rainfall and irrigation allocations during the review period generally provided at least average production opportunities. NRAC’s January 2011 inspection of the EC-declared area confirmed ABARES’ analysis. The majority of irrigation occurs from spring through to autumn, with the peak applications being in the summer months. Following a general irrigation level of 67 per cent from 1 October 2010, water allocation entitlements for 2011-2012 commenced at 100 per cent, the first full allocation since the 2002-2003 water year. While the majority of producers NRAC met with across the area spoke about reduced water availability previously causing high levels of salinity, most producers considered that the increased irrigation available from the Murray River and above average annual rainfall has alleviated this situation to a large degree. 1 In the same way NRAC recognises that it may take producers time to fully address the impacts of salinity, it recognises that dairy farmers on the Lower Murray Swamps will continue to experience the effects of slumping in paddocks caused by the drop in the water level of the Murray River over recent years. With the flow of the river system now more established, NRAC anticipates this will assist in addressing these issues. NRAC met with a number of horticulturists during its inspection. Although many citrus growers continue to operate with reduced tree numbers because of tree removal during the peak of the drought and subsequent water restrictions, most growers told NRAC they expect to see further improvement in tree health over the next 12 months. Despite this, seasonal conditions provided overall average citrus yields this season. Valencia yields were reported as slightly below average, Navel oranges above average and lemon yields slightly below average. The avocado harvest reportedly produced some of the best fruit in years, while stonefruit and nuts were lower than long-term average production. Market prices for all commodities continued to concern producers NRAC met with. As reported in its 2011 assessment of the EC-declared area, producers did not expect to see an improvement in yields until the 2011-12 harvest. Despite most wine grape growers dealing with some minor ongoing salinity issues, growers across the broader EC-declared area consistently told NRAC during its 2012 review that there had been improvement on previous year’s grape yields resulting from the improvement in seasonal conditions. Vine maintenance through extensive pruning and leaching of salt put vines back into production with growers telling NRAC that vines bunched well with some grape varieties achieving close to long-term average production. There were also a smaller number of growers who reported that they will need to replace vines either because they were lost during the drought due to combined lack of water and high salinity or because they are diversifying into different and more drought tolerant grape varieties. Dairy cow numbers are currently at approximately 60 per cent of long-term average numbers. A number of dairy producers indicated they have improved production by planting lucerne, manufacturing feed pads and feeding hay and grain. Dairy herds NRAC observed appeared in good condition and dairy producers told NRAC they expected milk production to increase. Most livestock (dairy, beef and sheep) producers indicated that building up herds and flocks would occur through a breeding program rather than purchasing livestock. They commented on the improved condition of livestock, with conception rates ‘very good’ and lambing rates about 135 per cent in 2011. Beef producers in the Lake Albert area commented that their capacity to increase production was limited because of the inability to use water out of Lake Albert and the need to purchase water through the town supply at high cost. Data sourced from ABARES and the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Benchmark Yields for Major Crops in Exceptional Circumstances Declared Areas estimates that 10 year average wheat and barley yields are approximately 1.1 t/ha and 1.2 t/ha respectively. NRAC spoke with only a small number of dryland cropping farmers below Lock 1, reporting that barley crops yielded average to above average. NRAC heard from a number of producers throughout the EC-declared area of issues that are outside the scope of EC review guidelines. While NRAC notes the financial position of producers, it is not an assessment criterion of recovery. NRAC notes that many producers continue to encounter the cumulative effects of long-term drought combined with low irrigation allocations. During NRAC’s previous inspection of the Lake Albert region of this EC area in late 2010, irrigators spoke of their intention to restart irrigation but were unable to, due to continuing high salinity levels. Producers this year told NRAC that for irrigation to commence out of Lake Albert, the causeway between Lake Alexandrina and Lake Albert requires dredging because of the build up of silt due to previously low river inflows. Producers further added that along with strong winds to enable the fresh water of the Murray River to mix with the saltier water of Lake Alexandrina, management of the Murray River, a responsibility of both the State and Federal governments is required to achieve high inflows into Lake Albert. Despite inflows from the Murray River increasing significantly over recent years, NRAC acknowledges that the immediate Lake Albert region continues to experience major water and 2 salinity issues. NRAC notes that this is a matter of cooperation between the relevant agencies and could take several years to achieve. NRAC notes that although producers in the River Murray and Lower Lakes Corridor spoke of being confident going forward, they continue to experience the impacts of several years of drought combined with near to no irrigation allocations from the application period in 2007 until 2010-11. Whilst outside the scope of EC policy, low commodity prices, increased input costs, uncertainty over contracts from wine and fruit processing companies have compounded these impacts. Many producers have reportedly extended their borrowings to upgrade infrastructure, purchase water and maintain production inputs to keep their businesses turning over, and were concerned notwithstanding this, that land values and equity levels have decreased. These producers expressed their frustration at being unable to access EC assistance, even though they have made considerable efforts to improve their enterprises. While noting these concerns raised by producers, NRAC concludes that with increased irrigation allocations for a second year and good water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin system, producers have had the opportunity to commence a seasonal recovery allowing them to return to more typical management practices. Recommendation NRAC recommends that the Minister not extend the River Murray and Lower Lakes Corridor EC declaration beyond 31 March 2012. 3 Area Description The River Murray and Lower Lakes Corridor EC declared area includes the hundreds of: Bonney, Baker, Alexandrina, Bremer, Strathalbyn, Freeling, Brinkley, Malcolm, Seymour, Burdett, Mobilong, Younghusband, Finnis, Angas, Ridley, Forster, Bagot, Fisher, Bowhill, Nildottie, Paisley, Skurray, Murbko, Hay, Eba, Cadell, Lindley, Stuart, Markaranka, Waikerie, Holder, Pooginook, Parcoola, Moorook, Pyap, Loveday, Katarapko, Bookpurnong, Gordon, Paringa, Murtho and includes all other land north of the River Murray up to a line from the northeast corner of the Hundred of Parcoola to where the River Murray crosses the Victorian border at Chowilla. This includes the District Councils of Berri-Barmera and Renmark-Paringa. EC Event The application was based on the effects of two separate events on dryland and irrigation farmers. For dryland farmers the applicaton sought assistance based on below average rainfall across the majority of the area from April 2002 to October 2006. The cumulative effects of prolonged dry condtions, severe frosts in 2002 and hot dry winds in 2004 eroded farmers’ capacity to carry out typical farm management practices. For irrigation dependent farmers, the application was based on severely deficient rainfall in the Murray–Darling Basin between March 2002 and February 2006. This led to record low levels of water in storage faciliites and reduced water releases that subsequently restricted the amount of irrigation water available from the River Murray. While the event occurred in the Murray–Darling Basin there was direct and delayed impact on water availability in the River Murray in South Australia. 4 EC Declaration History Declaration Industry Start Date Expiry Date EC declared All producers 27 March 2007 31 March 2009 EC extended All producers 1 April 2009 31 March 2010 EC extended All producers 1 April 2010 31 March 2011 EC extended All producers 1 April 2011 31 March 2012 There are 1620 primary producers in the River Murray and Lower Lakes Corridor EC-declared area. Production Systems as Recorded in the Original Application Enterprises Irrigated horticulture is the dominant industry in the Riverlands, where wine grapes, citrus and to a lessor extent vegetables and stone fruit are grown. In the Lower Lakes area dairy, viticulture and some cropping (mainly supplementary feed for dairy cattle) are the dominant industries. There is also some sheep and beef cattle production. Some irrigated vegetable cropping (in the centre) and dairying (in the south) occurs in the area which is minor relative to total production. Water Water supplies in the area are almost solely reliant on pumping water from the Murray River. South Australian Murray River licence holders are able to access 100 per cent of their entitlement for the water year 2011-12. Production Production varies significantly across the area. In the northern part, the ‘Riverlands’ is almost entirely dependent on irrigation water drawn from the Murray River. Production in the south, including the Lower Lakes district, while still dependent on irrigation has higher reliance on rainfall. Irrigation water is required for perennial horticulture from spring through to autumn, with peak rates occurring in the summer months. In the citrus industry, irrigation is required all year round. Pasture production peaks in spring with a secondary peak in autumn. Livestock carrying capacity is generally lower in the east and higher in the west. EC Review Guidelines The review process includes, but is not exclusive to, consideration of whether: seasonal, agronomic and resource conditions have provided an opportunity for the majority of producers within the Exceptional Circumstances declared area to begin to carry out typical farm management practices relevant to their enterprise type and production cycle; climatic conditions have enabled the majority of crop producers to carry out typical farm management activities such as allowing the planting and harvesting of their average crop area; rainfall and temperature in the main growing season has resulted in an increase in plant growth to enable the majority of livestock producers to carry out typical farm management practices and taking into long term trends, a return to average livestock numbers is underway; and there is sufficient water for livestock and domestic water use. Attachment 5 ABARES Advice 6