NATIONAL RURAL ADVISORY COUNCIL
Gundagai EC-Declared Area
Assessment
January 2011
Summary
The Gundagai Exceptional Circumstances (EC) declared area experienced well above
average to extremely high rainfall over the period January 2010 to December 2010. This
resulted in generally average or better production opportunities across the area.
Conditions for livestock, crop and horticulture production in the Gundagai EC area were
generally favourable during the review period. High rainfall throughout the review period led to
excellent pasture growth with adequate supplies of feed and water available for livestock.
While dryland cropping for grain is a minor industry in the area, rainfall during autumn and
winter 2010 provided adequate soil moisture for sowing, germination and establishment of
grain and fodder crops. Producers were expecting above average yields although there may
be some downgrading of crop quality due to high unseasonal rainfall at the end of the season.
Gundagai is also a significant apple producing area. Conditions for apple production for the
2010-11 harvest were favourable, with reports that fruit bud was plentiful and there is
adequate irrigation water. Producers are expecting the upcoming apple harvest to be up on
last year’s crop and for further improvements in overall yield next season.
NRAC considers that seasonal conditions have improved considerably since the previous
review assessment in February 2010, providing the opportunity for the majority of producers to
return to typical farm management practices. NRAC acknowledges that while the flooding that
occurred in October and December 2010 did have an impact on some producers in the area,
the floods were not widespread within the area and most producers benefited from the above
average seasonal conditions.
Based on the available information, NRAC recommends the Gundagai EC declaration not be
extended beyond 31 March 2011.
Assessment
NRAC reviewed seasonal conditions in the Gundagai EC-declared area to determine whether
an extension of EC assistance was warranted. As part of this assessment, Industry and
Investment New South Wales (I&I NSW) arranged the itinerary for NRAC’s inspection which
occurred on 12 January 2011. NRAC met with local producers and considered advice and
information from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences
(ABARES) and I&I NSW. This inspection was undertaken in conjunction with inspections of the
Young, and South West Slopes and Plains EC areas.
Most of the Gundagai EC area is in the temperate climate zone. The main agriculture
industries are beef production, sheep for wool and meat, some dairy and horticulture
production, with mixed cropping and livestock enterprises. The Kosciusko National Park and
plantation forestry located in the south and east of the area occupy about half of the EC area.
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Average annual rainfall for the region is 600–900 mm in the north around Gundagai and
900–1200 mm south of Tumut. Winter is the wettest season and has the highest rainfall
reliability. However, as low winter temperatures limit plant growth, autumn and spring rains are
the most useful, as in combination with warmer temperatures they promote crop and pasture
growth.
Dryland cropping is a minor industry in the Gundagai EC area. Small areas of winter cereals
are grown mainly for livestock fodder. Livestock graze on fodder crops during the winter
months when pasture growth is the lowest. The remainder is cut and stored as hay and silage
to be used as supplementary feed. There is some cash crop production, mainly wheat, in the
north of the area around the township of Gundagai when seasonal conditions are favourable.
Horticulture production, mainly apples with some cherries, is a major industry around the
township of Batlow. Milder summer temperatures in this area are ideal for fruit production
during the summer months.
ABARES’ advice based on Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) data indicates that rainfall over the
period January to December 2010 was average (30th to 70th percentile) to extremely high
(90th to 100th percentile) across the area. High rainfall during October, November and early
December 2010 contributed to flooding, particularly in areas around the Murrumbidgee and
Tumut Rivers.
Upper layer soil moisture was generally average throughout the review period, with some
deficiencies at the end of autumn 2010. Soil moisture improved at the end of winter, although
there were some deficiencies in the south of the area during early to mid spring 2010. High
rainfall during spring 2010 and early summer 2010-11 improved soil moisture.
Grazing across the Gundagai EC area relies on temperate native and introduced pastures.
The main growing season for temperate pastures in the area commences in August and peaks
in spring. There is a smaller peak in autumn while low temperatures in winter limit pasture
growth.
Rainfall throughout the review period provided adequate pasture feed and water for stock.
Pasture growth slowed during winter 2010, which is typical for this time of year, before
improving rapidly with onset of warmer temperatures and heavy rain in spring 2010. ABARES’
pasture growth analysis indicates extremely high growth rates during 2010. This was observed
by NRAC during its inspection and these pasture conditions coupled with low stocking rates
due to previous destocking will provide ample feed for livestock throughout summer 2010-11
for producers to maintain and finish stock.
In its previous assessment (January 2010) NRAC concluded that although rainfall had been
below average the timeliness of falls resulted in a general recovery in pastures throughout the
area. However, critical water shortages across the entire area were the most significant factor
preventing typical production for all enterprises. In December 2009 producers commented to
NRAC that without summer storm events, the water situation would be at crisis point with no
water for livestock, particularly as water cartage was not an option for most of the area. This
lack of stock water has been alleviated by the exceptionally good rainfall during 2010.
Producers are looking to restock over the coming months, but told NRAC during its inspection
of the area in January 2011 that rebuilding of herds and flocks will occur mostly by natural
increase , rather than stock purchases. The current relatively high prices for sheep and cattle,
while beneficial for those selling stock, is providing a constraint, especially for those producers
who through successive years of dry conditions have run down cash reserves. These two
factors, and the lack of demand for agistment, are the major reasons for the reportedly little
change in stock numbers between 2009 and 2010.
In discussions with NRAC, producers commented that calving and lambing rates were either at
or above normal rates for this season. Many producers also commented that because of the
good pasture growth in autumn 2010, many did not have to feed stock during autumn and
winter 2010.
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Conditions for crop production were generally favourable during the review period. However,
heavy rainfall during November and December 2010 caused delays to harvesting and resulted
in downgrades to grain quality. Flooding may have caused some localised crop damage.
Estimated grain yields in the NSW Grains Report December 2010 for wheat and barley around
the Tumut agronomy district were around 5 tonnes per hectare, compared to the long term
average as estimated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics of 1.9 t/ha and 1.5 t/ha for wheat
and barley respectively. Crop information from producers who met with NRAC indicated that
they were expecting above average yields but downgraded quality this season.
Apple production is the main horticulture activity in the area, concentrated around Batlow, with
stone fruit grown around Adelong, Tumut and Batlow. Irrigation is from on-farm storages and
water releases from Blowering Dam are also used for supplementary irrigation of tree crops
during warmer periods. Rainfall during 2010 replenished on-farm storages and there is
adequate irrigation with Blowering Dam at near capacity.
Apple yields for the 2009-10 season were down about a third on average. Some varieties
showed excellent quality whereas other showed heat stress. Apple producers that NRAC met
with were optimistic for this season’s crop and were expecting improved yields. Producers
were also expecting that the good seasonal conditions in 2010 would be of benefit for next
year’s harvest (2010-11).
Overall NRAC considers that seasonal conditions during 2010 have led to above average
pasture production and replenishment of stock water supplies across the area. Apple
production is expected to improve this season and seasonal conditions in 2010 are expected
to be beneficial for next season’s crop.
NRAC notes that the improvement in seasonal conditions was recognised by the NSW
Government and that on 21 December 2010, the NSW Primary Industries Minister declared
that “no part of the State is now in drought or even marginal”.
NRAC notes that parts of the Gundagai EC-declared area may have experienced heavy
rainfall and subsequent flooding in recent months. NRAC acknowledges the hardship endured
by producers as a result of these events. Notwithstanding the flooding NRAC considers that,
in broad terms, recovery from drought has commenced for the majority of producers in this
area.
For those individual producers impacted by the heavy rainfall and flooding, NRAC notes that
the Australian and state governments activated the Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery
Arrangements (NDRRA) across a number of local government areas throughout New South
Wales. NDRRA arrangements are triggered when a state or territory government declares an
area of natural disaster. Assistance for individuals and businesses impacted by flooding is
available in this context.
While it is outside of the EC review guidelines NRAC does note, for livestock producers the
low stocking rates and successive years with low income has created financial constraints to
rebuilding stock numbers. NRAC recognises that the rate of financial recovery will be less
than preferred as producers rebuild flocks and herds through breeding.
On the basis of the available information, NRAC considers that seasonal conditions have
provided the majority of producers in the Gundagai EC declared area the opportunity to return
to typical farm management practices.
Recommendation
NRAC recommends that the Minister not extend the Gundagai EC declaration beyond
31 March 2011.
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Area Description
The Gundagai EC declared area covers Division D of the former Gundagai Rural Lands
Protection Board and the parts of Divisions B and C east of the Hume Highway.
EC Event
The original application was based on historically low and ineffective rainfall during April
2001 to May 2003, which significantly reduced forage and crop production, as well as the
recharge of water storage systems.
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EC Declaration History
Decision
Interim income support
All producers
EC declared
All producers excluding horticulture
and viticulture
All producers excluding horticulture
and viticulture
Tree croppers
EC extended
EC declared
EC extended

Industry
Start Date
Expiry Date
9 December 2002
8 June 2003
9 December 2002
8 December 2004
9 December 2004
4 November 2004
8 December 2005
3 November 2006
9 December 2005
24 October 2006
8 February 2006
31 March 2008
EC extended
All producers excluding horticulture
and viticulture
All producers
EC extended
All producers
1 April 2008
EC extended
All producers
1 October 2008
30 September
2008
31 March 2009
EC extended
All producers
1 April 2009
31 March 2010
EC extended
All producers
1 April 2010
31 March 2011
There are 550 primary producers in the EC declared area.
Enterprises

Grazing of sheep and cattle for wool and meat production.

Some cropping, dairy production and horticulture.

Kosciusko National Park and plantation forestry occupy approximately half of the area.
Water

Surface water dams and irrigation (from the dams), rivers, creeks and bores
Production

Mainly temperate species reliant on winter and spring rainfall.

Minimal summer-growing pasture species.

Cereal and grain crops for stock feed.

Fodder and silage for supplementary feeding.

Some cash crops in the north, mainly wheat.
EC Review Guidelines
The review process includes, but is not exclusive to, consideration of whether:

seasonal, agronomic and resource conditions have provided an opportunity for the
majority of producers within the Exceptional Circumstances declared area to begin to
carry out typical farm management practices relevant to their enterprise type and
production cycle;

climatic conditions have enabled the majority of crop producers to carry out typical farm
management activities such as allowing the planting and harvesting of their average
crop area;

rainfall and temperature in the main growing season has resulted in an increase in plant
growth to enable the majority of livestock producers to carry out typical farm
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
management practices and taking into long term trends, a return to average livestock
numbers is underway; and
there is sufficient water for livestock and domestic water use.
Attachment
ABARES advice
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