NATIONAL RURAL ADVISORY
COUNCIL
Bega Valley EC–Declared Area
Assessment
February 2011
Summary
The Bega Valley Exceptional Circumstances (EC) declared area received above average to well
above average rainfall in the north, below average to well below average rainfall in the south and
predominantly average rainfall for the remainder of the area for the period June 2009 to
January 2011.
Seasonal conditions during winter and spring 2009 limited production opportunities. Rainfall
during late summer 2009–10 and autumn and late spring 2010 provided opportunities for pasture
production and most producers the National Rural Advisory Council (NRAC) met with noted they
were looking to restock. Dairy producers noted that production per head was average and most
producers commented that periods of extremely high rainfall during 2010 had increased on-farm
water supplies.
NRAC considers that seasonal conditions have provided the majority of producers the opportunity
to return to typical farm management practices. On the basis of the available information, NRAC
recommends that the Bega Valley EC declaration not be extended beyond 30 April 2011.
Assessment
The Bega Valley area was EC–declared on 10 September 2009. As part of NRAC’s assessment
of the EC application, the area was inspected in June 2009.
NRAC has undertaken a review of seasonal conditions in the Bega Valley EC–declared area to
determine whether an extension to the declaration is warranted. As part of its review, Industry and
Investment New South Wales (I & I NSW) arranged an itinerary for the on ground inspection of
16 February 2011 where NRAC met with local producers to assist in its deliberations. NRAC also
considered advice from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and
Sciences (ABARES) and information provided by I & I NSW.
The area is located within the temperate climate zone. Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) data
indicates that average annual rainfall across the area is between 600–900mm in the north and
900–1200mm in the south. Rainfall is typically uniform throughout the year. Rainfall reliability is
low to medium in spring and summer and low in autumn and winter.
Agricultural production in the area is dominated by grazing of modified pastures with small areas
of irrigated pastures and winter cereals to support livestock production. Beef cattle and dairy cows
are the main livestock enterprises. Pasture growth rates peak in spring with a secondary peak in
autumn. Irrigation is concentrated from the Brogo (regulated) and Bemboka/Bega irrigation
(unregulated) systems. There are large areas of nature conservation and production and
plantation forestry within the area.
ABARES’ analysis of BoM rainfall data indicates that average to well below average rainfall
during winter 2009 led to soil moisture deficiencies and despite predominantly average spring
rainfall, above average temperatures during November 2009 limited pasture growth. Producers
confirmed this to NRAC during the inspection, many noting that they were supplementary feeding
and carting water for livestock during these periods. NRAC also heard that dryland producers
were unable to cut or conserve fodder or silage during 2009.
NRAC notes ABARES’ advice that heavy rainfall in February 2010 led to increased pasture
growth rates, and climatic conditions from autumn 2010 to summer 2010–11 generally allowed for
average to above average pasture production across the majority of the area. This is evidenced
by average to well above average greenness anomalies and supported by accumulated potential
pasture growth curves.
During the inspection NRAC heard from producers that periods of extremely high rainfall in
February and May 2010 provided some opportunities for pasture production. However, some
producers commented that these events were not effective at recharging soil moisture levels as
much of the rainfall resulted in run-off.
Most producers agreed that rainfall since November 2010 had been beneficial for pasture growth
and would likely provide adequate feed through autumn 2011. This is supported by ABARES’
accumulated potential pasture growth analyses for temperate species which indicate growth rates
around the 75th percentile. ABARES also advise that recent favourable production conditions
should provide feed into autumn 2011.
Some producers reported to NRAC that as a result of the reduction in pasture cover and species
composition in previous years, weeds had increased in prevalence, posing a management issue,
and pastures would require some re-establishment to varying degrees.
Most producers commented to NRAC during the inspection that stocking rates for beef and dairy
cattle were 50 to 60 per cent of what were considered long term averages. Conception and
calving rates were reportedly variable. Some producers reported average rates whilst others
considered rates were below long term averages.
Most producers noted that herd structures and joining and calving periods had been altered in
previous years as a result of predominantly dry seasonal conditions. NRAC notes some
producers’ comments that they experienced above average cow losses in 2010 associated with
pregnancy toxaemia. Dairy producers reported that milk production per head had returned to
predominantly average levels, although overall production was below average as a result of
destocking.
Most producers considered that pasture growth since November 2010 was sufficient to return
livestock from agistment and commence restocking. Producers noted they would endeavour to
breed up numbers from existing herds rather than buying in due to high restocking prices and low
cash flows as a result of previous poor production years. NRAC notes that for some producers
the level of destocking over previous years, variable calving rates and high livestock prices may
limit the degree to which they can restock.
NRAC notes ABARES’ advice that general security access licence holders received an initial
entitlement of 40 per cent in the 2010–11 water year, while high security licence holders received
100 per cent of entitlement. ABARES further advise that rainfall during much of 2010 would have
reduced the reliance on irrigation water to some extent and provided adequate pasture feed for
dairy farms and allowed for some fodder conservation. NRAC heard from irrigated producers
during the inspection that rainfall and increased water allocations compared to 2009 provided the
opportunity for some fodder production in 2010.
Most producers noted that periods of extremely high rainfall during 2010 increased on-farm water
storages and levels were adequate for the upcoming season, although some producers noted
that groundwater levels remained low.
NRAC considers that there were limited production opportunities during winter and spring 2009.
Based on ABARES’ advice seasonal conditions during 2010 were generally favourable and
NRAC heard during the inspection that rainfall during late spring 2010 and early summer 2010–11
increased pasture production and stock water levels, providing the opportunity for producers to
return livestock from agistment and commence restocking.
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NRAC notes that whilst outside the remit of the EC review guidelines, many producers were
suffering from financial and mental stress. Also, whilst there were prospects for increased
production, cash flows were limited, and it would likely take several seasons for a financial
recovery.
On the basis of the available information, NRAC considers that seasonal conditions have
provided the majority of producers in the Bega Valley EC declared area the opportunity to return
to typical farm management practices.
Recommendation
NRAC recommends that the Minister not extend the Bega Valley EC declaration beyond
30 April 2011.
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Area description
The Bega Valley EC–declared area incorporates those parts of the Bega Valley Local Government
Area which are/were not part of the Cooma–Bombala–ACT declaration.
EC area history
The application was made on the grounds of historically low and ineffective rainfall impacting on
(predominantly) livestock grazing and dairy enterprises in the area.
Declaration
Industry
Start Date
Expiry Date
Prima facie
All producers
28 April 2009
27 October 2009
EC declared
All producers
10 September 2009
30 April 2011
Production systems
Rainfall:

Annual average rainfall is between 600–900mm in the north and 900–1200mm in the
south.
 Rainfall is typically uniform throughout the year.
 Rainfall reliability is low to medium in spring and summer and low in autumn and winter.
Land use:

Agricultural land use is dominated by grazing of modified pastures.
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
Large areas of nature conservation and production and plantation forestry.
Enterprises:


Beef cattle and dairy production.
Small areas of irrigated pastures and winter cereals to supplement production.
Water and pastures:



On farm dams and bores.
Irrigation from the Brogo (regulated) and Bemboka/Bega irrigation (unregulated) systems.
Grazing is predominantly reliant on modified temperate pastures. Growth rates peak in
spring with a secondary peak in autumn.
EC review guidelines
The review process includes, but is not exclusive to, consideration of whether:
 seasonal, agronomic and resource conditions have provided an opportunity for the
majority of producers within the Exceptional Circumstances declared area to begin to carry
out typical farm management practices relevant to their enterprise type and production
cycle
 climatic conditions have enabled the majority of crop producers to carry out typical farm
management activities such as allowing the planting and harvesting of their average crop
area
 rainfall and temperature in the main growing season has resulted in an increase in plant
growth to enable the majority of livestock producers to carry out typical farm management
practices and taking into long term trends, a return to average livestock numbers is
underway
 there is sufficient water for livestock and domestic water use.
Attachment
ABARES’ advice
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