NATIONAL RURAL ADVISORY COUNCIL North West Rangelands EC– Declared Area Assessment April 2011 Summary The North West Rangelands Exceptional Circumstances (EC) declared area received extremely high (90th to 100th percentile) rainfall for the period April 2010 to February 2011. Numerous periods of extremely high rainfall from mid 2010 to early 2011 greatly increased pasture production. Producers that the National Rural Advisory Council (NRAC) met with advised that they were looking to restock and that surface and ground water supplies had been recharged. NRAC considers that seasonal conditions have provided the majority of producers the opportunity to return to typical farm management practices. On the basis of the available information, NRAC recommends that the North West Rangelands EC declaration not be extended beyond 15 June 2011. Assessment NRAC has undertaken a review of seasonal conditions in the North West Rangelands EC–declared area to determine whether an extension to the declaration is warranted. The Department of Primary Industries and Resources South Australia (PIRSA) arranged an itinerary for the on ground inspection of 15–18 March 2011 (conducted in conjunction with the Central North East [including Annex] EC–declared area) where NRAC met with local producers to assist in its deliberations. NRAC notes that wet weather conditions limited the extent to which the scheduled inspection itinerary could be completed. PIRSA provided NRAC with further information post inspection and NRAC considered advice from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES). The area is predominantly located within the desert climate zone. Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) data indicates that average annual rainfall ranges from 100–200mm for much of the area with the exception of the southern tip which can receive up to 300mm. Rainfall is typically uniform through the seasons with low reliability. Agricultural production in the area is dominated by low intensity grazing of sheep for wool and meat and beef cattle on natural vegetation. Production is strongly influenced by large single rainfall events related to irregular storm activity. Rainfall timing and temperature also strongly influence plant growth, although plants can respond to rainfall at any time of the year. ABARES’ analysis of BoM rainfall data indicates average to extremely high rainfall was received in winter 2010 and predominantly extremely high rainfall was received in spring 2010 and summer 2010–11. During the inspection NRAC heard and observed that perennial bush, shrub and pasture regeneration and growth had greatly increased. Further, NRAC was advised that the cover and extent of the feed base exceeded expectations and it was likely a good seed set would be achieved benefiting future seasons. ABARES’ advice indicates that climatic conditions for pasture production were exceptionally favourable. Extremely high rainfall throughout the period April 2010 to February 2011 contributed to at least average pasture growth, supported by above average accumulated potential pasture growth and evidenced by average to above average vegetation greenness anomalies. ABARES’ advice further indicates that pasture production conditions over the review period should provide sufficient feed for livestock through much of 2011 and should also provide a favourable production outlook for at least another season. Stocking rates were reportedly below what were considered long term averages, although NRAC heard that some producers would likely not restock to previous levels, as they considered these levels no longer represented a sustainable stocking rate. Information from both PIRSA and producers indicates that due to the increased quantity and quality of feed, producers were restocking primarily through breeding rather than buying in, due to high livestock prices. NRAC heard that periods of extremely high rainfall had increased surface and ground water supplies. During the inspection NRAC observed significant quantities of surface water that would be sufficient for the upcoming season. ABARES’ advice indicates that adequate upper layer soil moisture for much of the region is likely to have allowed surface runoff and replenished stock water levels. Further, lower layer soil moisture also improved, which is likely to have replenished some groundwater aquifers and other, larger water stores. NRAC considers that seasonal conditions have provided the opportunity for above average growth and regeneration of pasture species providing a feed base for at least two seasons. The increased growth has allowed producers to commence restocking and as a result of periods of extremely high rainfall, ground and surface water supplies have increased and are sufficient for the upcoming season. NRAC notes that whilst not part of the review guidelines, there were comments that extremely high rainfall resulted in some flood damage to fences and internal roads in some areas. NRAC also heard that the poor condition of the public road network in some areas was affecting the transport of livestock and supplies. Further, there were comments that labour was difficult to attract and retain in the industry, and although this is an issue across Australia, NRAC notes the isolation of the area somewhat exacerbates the issue. On the basis of the available information, NRAC considers that seasonal conditions have provided the majority of producers in the North West Rangelands EC–declared area with the opportunity to return to typical farm management practices. Recommendation NRAC recommends that the Minister not extend the North West Rangelands EC declaration beyond 15 June 2011. 2 Area description The North West Rangelands EC declared area extends: along the eastern boundary of the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resource Management Region to the South of the Northern Territory and Queensland borders but excluding the pastoral leases of Alton Downs, Andrewilla, Pandie Pandie, Beckwith, Dickinnna and Cordillo Downs to the West of the eastern border of South Australia, the Lake Eyre National Park and the western boundaries of the pastoral leases of Muloorina, Lake Letty, Callanna, Witchelina, part Mulgaria, Andamooka, Bosworth, Pernatty, the Lake Gairdner National Park and the western boundaries of the pastoral leases of Mount Ive, Unalla and Buckleboo to the North of the northern boundary of the pastoral leases of Bollards Lagoon, Merty Merty, the Strzelecki Regional Reserve, the northern boundary of the pastoral leases of Lake Hope and Mulka, Lake Eyre National Park and the northern boundaries of the pastoral leases of Oakden Hills, Yalymboo, Mahanewho and the northern boundary of the Eyre Peninsula Natural Resource Management Region. The area excludes National Parks and Reserves with the exception of the Innamincka Regional Reserve that is managed as a pastoral lease and is included in the North West Rangelands area. EC area history The application was based on the cumulative impact of insufficient effective rainfall, over the period 2002 to 2007 which resulted in a lack of feed available to sustain livestock numbers. Declaration Industry Start Date Expiry Date Prima facie All producers 15 June 2007 EC declared All producers 7 August 2007 15 June 2009 EC extended All producers 16 June 2009 15 June 2010 3 EC extended All producers 16 June 2010 15 June 2011 Production systems as recorded in the original application Climate: Predominantly a desert climate zone. Annual average rainfall ranges from 100–200mm for much of the area with the exception of the southern tip which can receive up to 300mm. Rainfall is typically uniform through the seasons with low reliability. Enterprises: Low intensity grazing of sheep for wool and meat and beef cattle on natural vegetation. Extended dry periods and low plant growth is typical and the careful management of stocking rates and total grazing pressure is critical to conserve and protect the pasture base and soil moisture. Production: Production in the area is strongly influenced by large single rainfall events related to irregular storm activity. Rainfall timing and temperature also strongly influence plant growth, although plants can respond to rainfall at any time of the year. The area consists largely of chenopod (saltbushes and bluebushes) and mulga (Acacia) shrublands which provide the feed-base during dry years. During wet years, growth of the understorey of native perennial and annual grasses, and forbs provides the basis for increased production. Both tropical and temperate pastures provide relatively equal contributions to overall production. Livestock rely on dams and bores. Some natural water points are available following heavy rainfall. EC review guidelines The review process includes, but is not exclusive to, consideration of whether: seasonal, agronomic and resource conditions have provided an opportunity for the majority of producers within the Exceptional Circumstances declared area to begin to carry out typical farm management practices relevant to their enterprise type and production cycle climatic conditions have enabled the majority of crop producers to carry out typical farm management activities such as allowing the planting and harvesting of their average crop area rainfall and temperature in the main growing season has resulted in an increase in plant growth to enable the majority of livestock producers to carry out typical farm management practices and taking into long term trends, a return to average livestock numbers is underway there is sufficient water for livestock and domestic water use. Attachment ABARES’ advice 4