NATIONAL RURAL ADVISORY COUNCIL
South West Slopes and Plains EC-Declared Area
Assessment
January 2011
Summary
The South West Slopes and Plains Exceptional Circumstances (EC) declared area experienced
well above average to extremely high rainfall over the period January 2010 to December 2010.
This resulted in favourable conditions for cropping and livestock production during most of the
review period.
While seasonal conditions during the main growing season were beneficial to crop development
and pasture growth during spring, heavy rain just prior to harvest delayed the harvest and reduced
grain quality. Despite this crop yields across the area are expected to be average or better.
Livestock numbers remain below average stocking rates, but calving and lambing rates this
season have returned to long term averages. The good seasonal conditions during spring 2010
have provided producers with excellent opportunities to replenish on-farm fodder supplies and
water for livestock is now more than adequate.
Irrigation allocations for Murrumbidgee irrigators are at 100 per cent for the first time since 1996.
The increased availability of irrigation water in combination with rainfall received during the
2010-11 water year to date has resulted in an expanded area planted to rice compared to the
previous season and expectations are for average yields this season.
The National Rural Advisory Council (NRAC) considers that seasonal conditions have improved
considerably since the previous review assessment in February 2010 and that they have provided
the opportunity for the majority of producers to return to typical farm management practices.
NRAC does acknowledge that while the floods that occurred in October and December 2010
impacted on some producers in the area, the floods were not widespread and most producers
benefited from the above average seasonal conditions.
Based on available information, NRAC recommends the EC declaration for South West Slopes
and Plains not be extended beyond 31 March 2011.
Assessment
NRAC reviewed seasonal conditions in the South West Slopes and Plains EC-declared area to
determine whether an extension of EC assistance was warranted. As part of this assessment,
Industry and Investment New South Wales (I&I NSW) prepared the itinerary for NRAC’s inspection
which occurred on 12 – 14 January 2011. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource
Economics and Sciences (ABARES) and I&I NSW provided advice and information for
consideration by NRAC. This inspection was undertaken in conjunction with inspections of the
Young and Gundagai EC areas.
Most of the South West Slopes and Plains area is in the temperate climate zone, with a small area
in the west located in the grassland climate zone. Land use in the area is a combination of dryland
cropping and grazing of introduced pastures suited to spring growth. While cropping and livestock
production takes place throughout the area, cropping is more prominent west of Wagga Wagga,
and livestock is more prominent in the east. There is also a substantial area of irrigated agriculture
in the west of the area, around the towns Coleambally, Leeton and Griffith.
Based on Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) data the annual average rainfall for the area ranges from
400–600 mm. Seasonally, rainfall is generally uniform but rainfall reliability is medium during
winter and spring and low in summer and autumn.
Cropping in the area is typically based on winter cereals, including wheat, barley, canola and oats.
The mixed dryland enterprises in the area are primarily crop and pasture rotation systems, and in
parts of the area there is some continuous cropping.
Irrigated cropping around the Murrumbidgee River in the western part of the area is mainly for rice
and maize production. Irrigated crops are dependent on water allocations received to maintain
production with rainfall contributing to production opportunities. Summer crops are generally sown
in early spring with harvest beginning in March.
ABARES’ advice based on BoM data indicates that rainfall over the period January to December
2010 was extremely high (90th to 100th percentile) for the eastern two thirds of the area, and well
above average (80th to 90th percentile) in the western third of the area.
Heavy rainfall in February and March 2010 provided adequate soil moisture leading up to the
winter crop sowing period. Some rainfall deficiencies occurred in June 2010, but for the remainder
of the growing season rainfall provided favourable conditions for crop establishment and growth.
Rainfall during November and December 2010 resulted in delays to the harvest and some
downgrading of grain quality. Information provided by producers who spoke with NRAC suggests
that yields across individual properties varied, but overall, most producers were expecting average
or better yields for wheat and canola for the 2010 cropping program.
Most producers had crops downgraded however the percentage that an individual’s crop was
downgraded varied depending on when harvesting occurred. Some producers had only a small
proportion of their crop affected while others reported having over 50 per cent of their crop
downgraded. Despite the downgrading, the average or above yields and good commodity prices
are expected to offset losses to some extent.
Wheat yield predictions in the NSW Grains Report December 2010 range from 3.1 to 4.2 tonnes
per hectare (t/ha). This compares to the 1993 to 2008 average yield of between 2 and 3.5 t/ha for
the EC area. Information from NSW Grains Report indicates that the 2010 wheat crop will exceed
average yields in all the agronomy districts.
In addition to the effect of heavy rain downgrading winter crops, flooding that occurred in
December 2010 particularly in the Murrumbidgee Catchment area around Wagga Wagga, is likely
to have resulted in some crop losses.
ABARES, in its advice of 14 January 2010 indicates that the flooding resulted in 60 000 hectares
of winter crop in southern New South Wales being lost including an area around Wagga Wagga,
but also in areas around Cowra, Parkes and Young which are not in the South West Slopes and
Plains EC area.
NRAC did hear reports from producers during its inspection of crops and pastures, such as
lucerne, being washed out by the flooding that occurred in early December 2010; however, it
considers that this flood event was not widespread and did not affect a significant number of
producers in the area.
The 21 January 2011 ABARES’ Special Report on The impact of recent flood events on
commodities states that the winter crop harvest is approaching completion for New South Wales
as a whole. The recent floods in northern New South Wales are estimated to have had minimal
impact on winter crop production because harvest was largely finished in the north of the state
before the flooding. The harvest is progressing in the south of the state, with the remaining areas
to be completed in the next few weeks assuming favourable weather conditions. The recent
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rainfall has further delayed harvest in parts of the south east winter grains belt that had yet to
finish their harvest. Owing to significant rainfall throughout the harvest period, grain quality was
affected in many regions.
General security and high security allocations for the Murrumbidgee irrigators are at 100 per cent
for the first time since July 1996. Blowering and Burrinjuck Dams as at 14 January 2011 were at
98.78 and 99.5 per cent of capacity, compared to February 2010 when they were at 29 and 38
per cent full, respectively. In the NSW Grains Report December 2010 a summary of seasonal
conditions indicated that the establishment and development of the rice crop was better than
expected given the variable temperatures, when above average rainfall reduced solar radiation.
The estimated area sown is around 80 000 hectares compared to 18 750 hectares sown last
season.
At the time of NRAC’s inspection, the rice crop was entering a critical phase of flowering and
pollination when night time temperatures need to remain above 18○C. While the rice harvest will
not commence until around March 2011, producers who met with NRAC were confident that at
least average yields would be achieved this season.
Grazing is carried out largely on modified pastures with some grazing on natural pastures around
Wagga Wagga. ABARES advises that rainfall during autumn 2010 would have provided pasture
bulk to maintain stock through winter and reduce the need for supplementary feeding during
winter.
ABARES analysis indicates that pasture growth rates during spring 2010 and summer 2010-11 to
date have been above average, assisted by heavy rainfall and cooler than average summer
temperatures. NRAC observed good ground cover across the area and producers commented that
they were surprised how well pastures responded to the rainfall during 2010. In the previous
review, producers were concerned that after several years of dry conditions seed banks may be
depleted and any pasture response may be limited.
Livestock production in the area relies on spring rainfall for peak pasture production with a small
annual peak in autumn. ABARES’ analysis of potential pasture growth indicated that accumulated
potential pasture growth for temperate species was extremely high across the area. Vegetation
greenness was at least average or better over much of the area through the last 12 months.
NRAC observed the level of paddock feed was more than adequate for the amount of stock on
farms.
Stock numbers across the area remain below typical rates and it was reported by producers that
overall there had been relatively no change in stock numbers. In its last review, NRAC considered
that stock numbers were around 50 per cent of typical numbers. However, producers were happy
with the good calving and lambing rates that were achieved this season. Some producers
commented that the exceptionally wet conditions had predictably led to some animal health issues
such as flystrike and poor nutrition. This point was confirmed by local vets and rangers who spoke
with NRAC
While the availability of stock water was a critical issue facing producers in 2009 NRAC observed
that this was not the case in 2010. Producers commented that they had more than adequate
supplies of stock water.
Overall, NRAC considers that seasonal conditions throughout the South West Slopes and Plains
EC area have led to above average pasture production, average to above average yields for
winter crops with some downgrading of crop quality. Stock water supplies have been replenished
and prospects for the largest rice crop for a number of years are good.
NRAC notes that the improvement in seasonal conditions was recognised by the NSW
Government and that on 21 December 2010, the NSW Primary Industries Minister declared that
“no part of the State is now in drought or even marginal”.
NRAC notes that parts of the South West Slopes and Plains EC-declared area may have
experienced heavy rainfall and subsequent flooding in recent months. NRAC acknowledges the
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hardship endured by producers as a result of these events. Notwithstanding the flooding, NRAC
considers that, in broad terms, recovery from drought has commenced for the majority of the
producers in this area.
For those individual producers impacted by the heavy rain and flooding, NRAC notes that the
Australian and the NSW Governments activated the Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery
Arrangements (NDRRA) across a number of local government areas throughout New South
Wales. NDRRA arrangements are triggered when a state or territory government declares an
area of natural disaster. Assistance for individuals and businesses impacted by flooding is
available in this context.
While it is outside of the EC review guidelines, NRAC is concerned at the high levels of stress it
observed among some producers in the South West Slopes and Plains EC area. After several
years of dry conditions, crop producers were expecting an excellent return from the 2010 winter
crops. However, delays to harvesting and downgrading of winter crops due to the wet finish to the
season is likely to result in lower yields and returns than those expected prior to harvest. For
livestock producers, while there has been seasonal recovery, low stocking rates and the financial
constraints to restock by purchasing will mean that the rate of financial recovery may be slower
than desired as livestock producers rebuild flocks and herds through breeding.
On the basis of the available information, NRAC considers that seasonal conditions have
provided the majority of the producers in the South West Slopes and Plains EC-declared area the
opportunity to return to typical farm management practices.
Recommendation
NRAC recommends that the Minister not extend the South West Slopes and Plains
EC declaration beyond 31 March 2011.
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Area Description
The South West Slopes and Plains EC-declared area covers the former Rural Lands Protection
Boards (RLPB) of Wagga Wagga in its entirety, the former Gundagai RLPB west of the Hume
Highway, the former Hume RLPB west of the Hume Highway (excluding division A) and former
Narrandera RLPB Divisions B, C and D.
EC event
The EC event was the cumulative effect of ineffective rainfall from March 2002 to February 2003.
Over this 12-month period, rainfall in the EC area was very low in historical terms and the rain that
fell was ineffective in terms of providing either sustained crop and pasture growth or run-off for
stock water.
EC Declaration History
Declaration
Industry
Start Date
Expiry Date
Interim income support
All producers
9 December 2002
9 April 2003
EC declared
9 December 2002
8 December 2004
EC declared
Dryland livestock and/or crop
producers
Dryland crop producers
9 December 2002
8 December 2004
EC extended
Crop producers
19 May 2004
18 May 2006
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Declaration

Industry
Start Date
Expiry Date
EC extended
Dryland livestock producers
4 February 2005
3 February 2006
EC extended
Dryland producers
4 February 2005
3 February 2006
EC extended
Livestock and/or crop producers
22 July 2005
21 July 2006
EC extended
Crop producers
12 October 2005
11 October 2006
EC extended
Dryland producers
4 February 2006
21 July 2006
EC extended
Dryland producers
19 July 2006
30 November 2006
EC extended
All producers
16 October 2006
31 March 2008
EC extended
All producers
1 April 2008
30 September 2008
EC extended
All producers
1 October 2008
31 March 2009
EC extended
All producers
1 April 2009
31 March 2010
EC extended
All producers
1 April 2010
31 March 2011
There are 3170 primary producers in the South West Slopes and Plains EC-declared area.
Production systems
Enterprises

Cropping and livestock production takes place throughout the area, cropping is more
prominent west of Wagga, and livestock is more prominent in the east.

There is substantial irrigated agriculture (rice, pulse crops and oilseeds) in the north west of
the area, around the towns of Coleambally and Griffith.
Water


On-farm dams and storage.
Irrigation from the Murrumbidgee.
Production

Temperate pasture species with peak growth in spring and a second peak in autumn then
growth rates decline due to low winter temperatures.

Rainfall reliability is slightly higher during winter and spring.

Dryland crop producers are reliant on rain during autumn and winter for sowing and growth
of crops and spring rain to finish-off crops before harvest.

Summer rainfall can help to build subsoil moisture, but often this has the disadvantage of
encouraging weed-growth.

Livestock production has a similar reliance on rainfall, depending on spring as the peak
period of pasture growth.
EC Review Guidelines
The review process includes, but is not exclusive to, consideration to whether:

seasonal, agronomic and resource conditions have provided an opportunity for the majority
of producers within the Exceptional Circumstances declared area to begin to carry out
typical farm management practices relevant to their enterprise type and production cycle;
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


climatic conditions have enabled the majority of crop producers to carry out typical farm
management activities such as allowing the planting and harvesting of their average crop
area;
rainfall and temperature in the main growing season has resulted in an increase in plant
growth to enable the majority of livestock producers to carry out typical farm management
practices and taking into long term trends, a return to average livestock numbers is
underway; and
there is sufficient water for livestock and domestic water use.
Attachment
ABARES Advice
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