THE ROLE OF FINANCIAL
MANAGEMENT
Dr. H. Mustika Lukman Arief, SE., MBA., MM.
• Apa itu manajemen keuangan….?
Manajemen Keuangan meliputi semua aktivitas
yang berhubungan dengan usaha mendapatkan
dana yang dibutuhkan perusahaan serta
mengggunakan dan/mengalokasikan dana
tersebut secara efesien dan efektif guna
mencapai tujuan perusahaan.
Manajemen keuangan digunakan
untuk menjawab pertanyaan:
1. What long-term investments should the
firma engage in?
2. How can the firm raise the money for the
required investments?
3. How much short-term cash flow does a
company need to pay its bills?
Proses manajemen keuangan
for-profit organization
Keputusan
Keputusan
Investasi
Investasi
Laba bersih
Dividen
Kebijakan
Dividen
Alternatif investasi?
Penilaian investasi?
pemilihan investasi?
Laba ditahan
Inv. Jangka panjang
Inv. Jangka pendek
Jangka pendek
(Hutang Lanca)
Keputusan
Pendanaan
Jumlah kebutuhan
dana?
Sumber dana?
Struktur modal?
Biaya modal?
Jangka panjang
Modal sendiri:
 Laba ditahan
 Saham
 Hutang jk. pjg
The Role of The Financial Manager
 Capital Budgeting decision
decision to in tangible or intangible assets also called the
investment decision

 Financing decision
 raising
money that the firm needs for its
investments and operations
 Capital structure
 the
mix of long term debt and equity financing
Untuk kebijakan fungsi tersebut, ada 3
keputusan yang perlu diambil
1. Keputusan investasi
2. Keputusan Pendanaan
3. Kebijkan Dividen
Masing-masing keputusan harus berorientasi
pada pencapaian tujuan perusahaan
Tujuan Perusahaan
Dalam pengertian mikroekonomi disebut bahwa tujuan
perusahaan adalah memaksimalkan keuntungan. Namun
ditinjau dari sudut keuangan tujuan ini mengabaikan berbagai
kerumitan yang ada dalam praktek pengambilan keputusan
sehari-hari
Kelemahan Maksimalisasi Keuntungan:
1. Tidak mengaitkan besarnya keuntungan yang dihasilkan
denga waktu perolehannya
2. Tidak memperhatikan masalah waktu dan ketidakpastian
3. Mengabikan lamanya waktu pengembalian
4. Mengabaikan beban modal yang harus dipikul pemegang
saham
Tujuan Perusahaan
Tujuan perusahaan adalah memaksimalkan kekayaan
pemegang saham dengan cara memaksimalkan nilai
perusahaan
‘Basic goal: Maximize stockholder value’ indikatornya
- Firm’s value yang maksimal
- Stock price yang maksimal
Nilai perusahaan dicerminkan oleh harga pasar saham
 Mengapa harga pasar saham mencerminkan nilai
perusahaan atau kekayaan pemegang saham?

Tujuan manajemen Keuangan
 mempelajari dan memahami bagaimana upaya
perusahaan dalam memaksimalkan nilai
perusahaannya (Value of the firm) memalui 3
macam keputusan yaitu: keputusan investasi,
keputusan pendaaan, kebijakan dividen.
Vf = f (I, F, D)
Vf = value of the firm (nilai perusahaan)
I = Investment Decision
F = Financial Decision
D = Dividen Policy Decision
The Objektive Function
Maximime the Value of the firm
Basic corporation financial decision
1. How do you allocate resources across competing uses?
2. How do you raise founds to finance the projects?
3. How much do you reinvest back into the business and how much do
you return to you stockholders?
The corporate financial toolbox
Accounting stetement and ratio
Present value
Risk and return meodels
Option pricing models
Aksioma-aksioma yang diperlukan untuk
memahami Manajemen Keuangan
Aksioma 1
Aksioma 2
Aksioma 3
Keseimbangan risiko dan pengembalian (the
risk-return tradeoff)
Jangan menambahkan risiko kecuali
mendapatkan kompensasi tambahan
pendapatan
Nilai waktu uang (time value of money)-uang
yang diterima ssekarang lebih berharga dari
uang yang diterima kemudian
Yang utama adalah uang kas-bukan besarnya
laba
Lanjutan…
Aksioma 4
Tambahan Arus Kas (Increment Cash Flow) satu-satunya
pertambahan nilai yang dihitung
Aksioma 5
Kondisi persaingan pasar-alasan kenapa sangat sulit mendapatkan
laba yang luar biasa
Aksioma 6
Pasar modal yang efesien-pasar yang bergerak cepat dan harga
yang tepat
Aksioma 7
Masalah keagenan-manajer tidak akan bekerja bagi pemilik
perusahaan jika tidak selaras dengan kepentingan mereka
Aksioma 8
Perpajakan yang berdampak pada keputusan bisnis
Aksioma 9
Tidak semua risiko sama, ada sebagian risiko yangd dapat
didiversifikasi
Aksioma 10 Melakukan sesuatu yang benar adalah perilaku yang etis, dan
banyak dilema etika dalam manajemen keuangan
What is a Corporation?
 Types of Corporations



Public Companies
Private Corporations
Limited Liability Corporations (LLC)
Organizing a Business
 Types of Business Organizations




Sole Proprietorships
Partnerships
Corporations
Limited Liability Partnerships
Organizing a Business
Who owns the
business?
Are managers
and owners
separate?
What is the
owner’s
liability?
Sole
proprietorship
Partnership
Corporation
The manager
Partners
Shareholders
No
No
Usually
Unlimited
Unlimited
Limited
Are the owner & No
business taxed
separately?
No
Yes
Question
1. Why should a company concetrate primarily on
wealth maximization instead of profit maximization?
2. What are the three types of financial management
decisions? For each type of decision, give an example
of the business transaction that would be relevant.
3. Firms often involve themselves in projects that do not
result directly in profits: for example, IBM and Mobil
Oil frequently support public television broadcast. Do
these projects contradict the goal of maximization of
shareholder wealth? Why or why not.
Case
In early 2001, Doc and Lyn McGee formed the McGee Company. The company
produced a full line of cakes, and its specialties included chess cake, le,on pound
cake, and double-iced, double-chocolate cake. The couple formed the company as
an outside interest, and both continued to marketing and distribution. With good
product qualty and sound marketing plan, the company grew rapidly. In early
2006, the company was featured in a widely distributed entrepreneurial magazine.
Later that year, the company was featured in Gourmet Desserts, sales exploded,
and the company began receiving orders from all over the world.
Because of the increased sales. Doc left his order job, followed shortly by
lyn. The company hired additional workers to meet demand. Unfortunately, the
fast growth experienced by the company led to cash flow and capacity problems.
The company is currently producing as many cakes a possible with the assets it
owns, but demand for its cakes is still growing. Further, the company has been
approached by national supermarket chain with an proposal to put four of its cakes
in all of the chain’s stores, and a national restaurant chain has contracted the
company obout selling McGee cakes in its restaurants. The restaurant would sell
the cakes without a brand name.
Doc and Lyn have operated as a sole proprietorship.
They have approached you to help manage direct
the company’s growth. Specifically, they have
asked you to answer the following questions:
1. What are the advantages and disadvantages of
changing the company organization from a sole
proprietorship to an Limited Liabilities Company
(LLC)?
2. What are the advantages and disdvantages of
changing the company organization from a sole
proprietorship to a corporation?
3. Ulimately, what action would you recommend
the company undertake? Why ?
Financial Statement Analysis
Financial Statement Analysis
Financial analysis can be defined as the process of
assessing the financial condition of a firm
Basic Fianancial Statements
 Balanced Sheet
 The Income Statement
The Balance Sheet
Definition
financial statements that show the value of
the firms’s assets and liabilities at a particular
point in time (from an accounting perspective)
US Corporation Balance Sheet
U.S. CORPORATION
2004 and 2005 Balance Sheets
(S in Millions)
Assets
Current assets
Cash
Accoumts receivable
Inventory
Total
Fixed assets
Net plant and
Equipment
Total assets
2004
2005
$ 104
455
553
$1.112
$ 160
988
555
$1.403
Liabilities and Owners’ Equity
2004
current liabilities
ccounts payable
$ 232
notes payable
196
total
$ 428
Long-term debt
$1,644
$2,756
2005
$ 266
123
$ 389
$ 408
$ 454
600
1,320
$1,920
640
1,629
$2,269
$2,756
$3,112
$1,709
$3,112
Owners’ equity
Common stock and
Paid-in surplus
Retained earnigs
Total
Total liabilities and
owners’ equty
The Income Statement
Definition
Financial statement that shows the
revenues, expenses, and net income of a
firm over a period of time (from an
accounting perspektive)
US Corporation Income Statement
U.S. CORPORATION
2005 Income Statement
(S in Millions)
Net sales
Cost of goods sold
Depreciation
Earnings before interest and taxes
Interest paid
Taxable income
Taxes
Net income
Diviends
Addition to retained earnings
$1,509
750
65
$ 694
70
$ 624
212
$ 412
$ 103
309
Why Evaluate Financial Statements?
• Internal uses
- Performance evaluation-compensation and
comparison between divisions
- Planning for the future-guide in estimating
future cash flows
• External uses
- Creditors
- Suppliers
- Custolers
- Stockholders
Financial Ratio
• The principal analytical tool of the financial
analyst is the financial ratio
• Financial ratios help us identify some of the
financial strengths and weaknesses of a
company
• The ratios give us a way of making meaningful
comparisons of a firm’s financial data at
different points in time and with other firms
Categori of Financial Ratios
•
•
•
•
•
Short-term solvency or liquidity ratios
Long-term solvency or financial leverage ratios
Asset management or turnever ratios
Profitability ratios
Market value ratios
Liquidity Ratios
Current ratio
= current assets
current liabilities
Quick ratio = current assets - inventorie s
Current liabilitie s
Cash ratio
= cash + marketable securities
Current liabilities
Long-term solvency or financial
leverage ratios
Total debt ratio = total liabilities
total assets
Debt/equity ratio = Total debt
equity
Equity multiplier = Total Assets
equity
Long term debt ratio =
long term debt
long term debt+equty
Times interest earned =
EBIT
Interest payments
Asset management or turnover ratios
Receivable turnover ratio =
Sales
Receivable
Day’s sales in receivable =
365
Receivables turnover
Inventory turnover ratio =
cost of goods sold
Inventory
Day’s sales in inventory =
inventory
Cost of goods sold/365
Asset management or turnover ratios
Fixed asset turnover ratio =
Total asset turn over=
Sales
Net fixed assets
Sales
Total assets
NWC Turnover = Sales/NCW
Net working capital (NCW) = CA - CL
Profitability ratios
Net profit margin =
net income
Sales
Return on asset (ROA) =
Return on equity =
net Income
Total
net income
Total equity
Market value ratios
• PE Ratio = Price per share/Earnings per share
• Market-to-book ratio = market value per
sgare/book value per share
Sample Balance Sheet
Numbers in millions
2008
2007
2008
2007
Cash
696
58 A/P
307
303
A/R
956
992 N/P
26
119
Inventori
604
625 Other CL
Total CL
1,662
1,995
1,352
1,775
843
1,091
Total CA
2,256
1,675 LT Debt
Net FA
3,138
3,358 Total
Equty
2,556
2,167
Total
Asset
5,394
5,033 Total Liab.
& Equity
5,394
5,033
Sample Income Statement
Numbers in millions, except EPS & DPS
Revenues
Ost of Goods Sold
Expenses
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest Expense
Taxable income
Taxes
Net Income
EPS
Dividends per share
5,000
2,006
1,740
116
1,138
7
1,131
442
689
3.61
1.08
Liquidity Ratios
1. Current Ratio = CA/CL
- 2256/1995= 1.13 times
2. Quick Ratio = (CA-Inventory)/CL
- (2256-604)/1995 = 83 times
3. Cash Ratio = Cash/CL
-696/1995 = 35 times
Long-term Solvency ratios
• Total Debt Ratio = (TA – TE)/ TA
- (5394 – 2556)/5394=52.61%
• Debt/Equity = TD/TE
- (5394-2556)/2556= 1.11 times
• Equity Multiplier = TA/TE = 1+D/E
- 1=1.11= 2.11
• Long-term debt ratio = LTD/(LTD=TE)
- 843/(843=2556)= 24.80%
• Times Interest Earned= EBIT/Interest
- 1138/7= 162.57 times
Asset management or turnover ratios
Computing Receivables ratios
• Receivables Turnover= Sales/Accounts=
Receivable
- 5000/956= 5. 23 times
• Days’ Sales in receivables = 365/ Receivales
Turnover
- 365/5.23= 70 days
Asset management or turnover ratios
Computing Inventory ratios
• Inventory Turnover = Cost of Goods
Sold/Inventory
- 2006/301= 6.66 times
• Days’ Sales in Inventory = 365/Inventory
Turnover
- 365/6.66 = 55 days
Asset management or turnover ratios
Computing Inventory ratios
• Total Asset Turnover= sales/Total Assets
- 5000/5394= 93
- it is not unusual for TAT <1, especially if a firm
has a large amount of fixed assets
• NWC Turnover = Sales/NWC
- 5000/(2256-1995)= 19.16 times
• Fixed Asset Turnover= Sales/NFA
- 5000/3138= 1.59 times
Profitability Measures
• Profit Margin= Net Income/Sales
- 689/5000= 13.78%
• Return on Assets (ROA) = Net Income/Total
Assets
- 689/5394 = 12.77%
• Return on Equity (REO) = Net Income/Total
Equty
- 689/2556= 26.96%
Computing Market Value Measures
• Market Price = $ 87.65 per share
• Shares outstanding = 190.9 million
• PER ratio = Price per share/Earnings per
share
- 87.65/3.61 = 24.28 times
• Market-to-book ratio = market value per
share/book value per share
- 87.65/ (2556/190.9) = 6.56 times
Harley-Davidson, Inc. Ratio Analysis
1. Liquidity ratios
Current ratio
Acid-test ratio
Cash ratio
2002
2003
Average industries
1.13
83
35
1,5
1,06
50
52.61%
1.11
2.11
24.80%
162.57
48%
98
2.01
20.04%
154.46
93
5.23
6.66
1.59
1.2
8.11
7.05
1.66
13.78%
12.77%
26.96%
14.04%
16.86%
35.56%
2. Financial leverage ratio
Total Debt ratio
Debt/Equity ratio
Equity multiplier
Long term debt ratio
Time interest earned
3. Turnover ratio
Total assets turnover
Account receivable turnover
Inventory turnover
Fixed assets turnover
4. Profitability ratios
Net profit margin
Return on Assets
Return on Equity
Using the DuPont Identity
ROE = PM * TAT * EM
ROE = Net Income/sales x sales/assets x assets/Equity
- Profit margin is a measure of the firm’s operating efficiensy
- how well does it control costs
- total asset turnover is a measure of the firm’s asset use
efficiency-how well does it manage its assets
- Equity multiplier nis a meausre of the firm’s financial
leverage
Expanded Dupont AnalysisAeropostale data
• Balance Sheet Data
- cash= 138,356
- inventory= 61,807
- other CA = 12,284
- fixed assets = 94, 601
- equity = 185, 640
• Computations
- TA = 307,048
- TAT = 2. 393
- EM = 1.654
• income Statement Data
- Sales= 734,868
- COGS+ 505,152
- SG&A = 141,520
- interest = (760)
- taxes = 34, 702
• Computations
- NI= 54,254
- PM= 7,383%
- ROA= 17.668%
- ROE= 29.223%
Aeropostale Expanded DuPont Chart
ROE = 29.22%
17,668
11,654
PM= 7,383%
NI=54,254
Sales= 680,614
TAT=2,393
Sales=734,868
TC=734,868
COGS= 505, 152
SG&A= 141,520
Interest= (760)
Taxes= 34,702
Sales=734,868
Fixed Assets=94601
Cash= 138,356
Other CA=12,284
TA=307,048
Current Assets= 212,447
Inventory=
61,807
ROE = net income
sales
x
sales x assets
assets
equty
= 54,254 x 734, 868 x 307, 048
734,868
307,048
185, 640
= 07383 x 2.3933 x 1.6540
= 29.2%
• As we study the figure, we quickly see that
improvement in the ROE can common in one or more
of four ways:
1. Increase sales without a disproportionate increase in cost
and expenses
2. Reduce COSGS or operating expences
3. Increase the sales relative to the asset base, either by
increasing sales or by reducing the amounts invesred in
company assets. From our earlier exammination of
Harley-Davidson, we learned that the firm had excessive
account receivables and fixed assets. Thus management
need to reduce these assets to the lowest in the return
on which would in turn result in an increase in the return
on assets and then the return on equity
4. Increase the use of debt relative to equity, but only to the
extent tha it does not unduly jeopardize the firm’s
financial position.
Limitations of ratio analysis
1. It is sometimes diffcult to identify the industry category to
which a firm belongs when the firm enganges in multiple
line of business
2. Published industry averages are only approximations and
provide the user with general guidelines rather than
scientifically determoned averages of the ratios of all or
even a representative sample of the firms within an
industry
3. Accounting practice differ widely among firms and can
lead to differences in computed ratio
4. An industry average may not provide a desirable target
ratio or norm
5. Many firm experience seasonality in their operation
Case
Chris was recently hired by S&S Air, Inc., to assist the
company with its financial planning and to evaluate the
company’s performance. Chris graduated from college five
years ago with a finance degree. He has been employed in the
finance departement of a fortune 500 company since then.
S&S Air was founded 10 years ago by friends Mark
Sexton and Todd Story. The company has manufactured and
light airplanes this period, and the company’s products have
received high reviews for safety and reliability. The company
has a niche market in that it sells primarily to individuals who
own and fly their own airplanes. The company has two
models; the birdie, which sells for $53,000, and the Eagle,
which sells for $78,000.0
Although the company manufactures aircraft, its
operations are different from commercial aircraft
companies S&S Air builds aircraft to oredr. By using
prefabricated parts, the company can complete the
manufacture of an airplane in only five weeks. The
company also receives a deposit on each order, as well
as another partial payment before the order is
complete. In contras, a commersial air plane may take
one and one-half to two years to manufacture once the
order is placed
Mark and Todd have provide the following financial
statements. Chris has gathered the industry ratios for
the light airplane manufacturing industry.
Sample Income Statement
$21,785,300
Revenues
Cost of of Goods Sold
15,874,700
Expenses
2,762,500
Depreciation
976,200
EBIT
2,171,900
Interest Expense
341,600
Taxable Income
1,830,300
Taxes
732,120
Net Income
Dividends
Add to retained earning
1,098,180
$439,272
658,908
Sample Balance Sheet
2006
2006
$315,000 A/P
$635,000
A/R
506,000 N/P
1,450,000
Inventory
740,800
Cash
Total CA
Total CL
2,085,000
$1,561,800 LT Debt
3,800,000
11,516,000
Net FA
Total
Assets
Common stock
R/E
13,077,800 Total Liab.
& Equity
250,000
6,942,800
13,077,800
Light Airplane Industri ratios
Lower
Median
Upper
1
Current ratio
0.50
1.43
1.89
2
Quick ratio
0.21
0.38
0.62
3
Cash ratio
0.08
0.21
0.39
4
Total Assets turnover
0.68
0.85
1.38
5
Inventory turnover
4.89
6.85
10.89
6
Receivables turnover
6.27
9.82
14.11
7
Total debt
0.44
0.52
0.61
8
Debt-Equity ratio
0.79
1.08
1.56
9
Equity multiplier
1.79
2.08
2.56
10
Time interest earned
5.18
8.06
9.83
11
Profit margin
4.05%
6.98%
9.87%
12
Return on assets
6.05%
10.53%
13.21%
13
Return on equity (ROE)
9.93%
16.54%
26.15%
Question
1. Using the financial statements provided for S&S
Air, calculate each of the ratios listed in the table
for the light aircraft industry.
2. Compare the performance of S&S Air to the
industry, for each ratio, comment on why it might
be viewed as positive or negative relative to the
industry. How do you think S&S Air’s ratio would
compare to industry average?
TIME VALUE OF MONEY
TIME VALUE OF MONEY
• Future Value-Taking an amout and finding its
value at sometime in the future
• Present Value-Taking an anmout from
sometime in the future and finding its value
today.
Future Values
Future Value – Amount to which an invenstement
will grow after earning interest
Compound Interest – Interest earned on interest.
Simple Interest – Intrest earned only on the original
investment.
Future Values
Example – Simple Interest
Interest earned at a rate of 6% for five years on a
principal balance of $100
Today
Interest earned
Value
100
1
Future Years
2
3
4
6
106
6
112
Value at the end of year 5 =$130
6
118
6
124
5
6
130
Future Values
Example – Compound Interest
Interest earned at a rate of 6% for five years on the
previous year’s balance
Today
1
Interest earned
Value
100
6
106
2
Future Years
3
4
6.36
112.36
6.74
119.10
Value at the end of year 5 =$133.82
7.15
126.25
5
7.57
133.82
Future Values
FV = $100x(1+r)t
Example-FV
1. What is the future value of$100 if interest is
compounded annually at a rate 6% for five years?
FV = $100 x (1+.06)5 = $133.82
2. What is the future value of $100 invested for five
years at a nominal interest rate 12%, compounded
continuosly?
Compounding Periods
Compounding an investment m times a years for T
years provides for future value of wealth:
FV = Co
for example, if you $50 for years at 12%
compounded semi-annually, your investment will
grow to
FV =
6
=$70.93
Effective Interest Rates
reff= (1+r/m)m- 1
2
Reff= (1+0,12/2) - 1 = 12,36%
Continuous Compounding :
reff = e m- 1
Reff = (2,71828)0,12- 1 = 12,75%
Dampak dari periode pemajemukan yang berbeda atas nilai masa
depan $1.000, diinvestasikan dengan tingkat bunga nominal 8%
Jumlah
Periode
Pemajemukan
Future value pada
akhir 1 th
Tingkat bunga
tahunan efektif
$1.000
Tahunan
$1.080,00
8,00%
$1.000
Semi tahunan
$1.081,60
8,16%
$1.000
4 bulanan
$1.082,43
8,24%
$1.000
Bulanan
$1.083,00
8,30%
$1.000
Harian
$1.083,28
8,32%
$1.000
Berkelanjutan
$1.083,29
8,33%
How Long is the wait?
If we deposit $5,000 today in an account paying 10% how
long does it take to grow to $10,000?
FV = Co x (1+r)T
$10,000=$5,000x(1.10)T
(1.10)T = $10,000 = 2
$5,000
ln(1.10)T = ln 2
T=
ln 2 = 0.6931 = 7,27 years
ln (1.10) 0.0953
What Rate Is Enough?
Assume the total cost of a college education will be
$50,000 when your child enters college in 12 years. You
have $50,000 to invest today. What rate of interest must
you earn on your investment to cover the cost of your
child’s education ? About 21.15%
FV = Co x (1+r)T
(1.r)12 =$50,000=10
$50,000=$5,000 x (1.r)12
(1+r)101/12
$5,000
r =101/12 = 1 = 1.2115 = 1 = 2115
What is the future value three years hence of $1.000
invested in an account with a stated annual interest rate of
8%
a.
b.
c.
d.
Compounded annually
Compounded semiannually
Compounded monthly
Why does the future value increase as the
Compounding period shortens
Present Values
Discount factor
Present Value
Present value of a
$1 future
payment.
Value today of a
future cash flow.
Discount Rate
Interest rate used to
compute prent values
of future cash flows.
TIMES VALUE OF MONEY
(APPLICATIONS)

The PV formula has many application, you can
solve for the remaining variable.
PV = FV x 1
(1+r)t
What is the present value of $ 100 to be received in 3 years if the
appropriate interest rate 1s 10%, 15%, and 20%
PV = $100 x 1/(1,1)3 = $75,13
PV = $100 x 1/(1,15)3 = $65,75
PV = $100 x 1/(1,20)3 = $57,87
PV of Multiple cash Flows
Example
your auto dealer gives you the choice to pay $15,500 cash now, or
make three payments: $8,000 now and $4,000 at the end of the
flowwing two years. If your cost of money is 8% wich do you prefer?
Immediate payment 8,000.00
PV 1 = 4,000 = 3,703.70
(1+.08)1
PV 2= 4,000 = 3,429.36
(1+.8)2
Total PV = $15,133.06
Example
you are selling your house. The Smith have offered you
$115.000. they will pay you immediately. The Joneses have
offered you $150.000, but the cannot pay you until theree
years from today. The interest rate is 10 percent. Which
offer should you choose?
you have the opportunity to make invesment that cost
$900.000. if you make the investment now, you will receive
$120.000 and three years from today, respectively. The
appropriate discount rate for this invesment is 12%. Should
you make invesment?
You are given three invesment alternatives to anlyze. The cach
flows from these three invesments are follows:
END OF YEAR
A
B
C
1
$5,000
$1,000
$10,000
2
$5,000
$3,000
$10,000
3
$5,000
$5,000
$10,000
4
-$15,000
$10,000
$10,000
5
$15,000
$10,000
-$40,000
What is the present value of each of these three invesments if 10 percent
is the appropriate discount rate?
Perpetuities & Annuities
Annuity = Equally spaced level stream of cash
flows for a limited period of time.
Perpetuity = A stream of level cash payments
that never ends.
Annuities
FV of Annuity Formula
FVAN = C X (1 + r)t - 1
r
C = cash payment
r = interest rate
t = Number of years cash payment is received
Annuities
Example – future Value of annual payments
You plan to save $4,000 every year for 20 years
and then retire. Given a 10% rate of interest,
what will be the FV of your retirement
account?
FVAN = 4.000 x (1 + 0,10)20 - 1
0,10
FVAN = $229,100
Annuities
PV of Annuity Formula
PVAN = C x (1 – 1/(1+r)t
r
C = cash payment
r = interest rate
t = Number of years cash payment is received
Annuities
Example – Annuities
you are purchasing a car. Your are scheduled to make
3 annual instllments of $4,000 per year. Given a rate
of interest of 10%, what is the price you are paying
for the car (i.e. what is the PV)
PVAN = 4.00 x 1- 1/(1+0,1)3
0,1
PVAN = $9.947,41
Annuity: Example
Your insurance agent offers to sell you an annuity.
It will pay you $400 per for five years. Your
requred rate of return is 7%. How much will
you be willing to pay?
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
….. ……… …..…. ...……. ……… ...…
400 400 400 400 400
PV = = $1,640.08
Annuity: Example
Your insurance agent offers to sell you an annuity. It will pay you
$400 per for five years beginning of each years. Your requred rate
of return is 7%. How much will you be willing to pay?
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
…... ……….. ….……. ….……. ...…….. ……
400
400 400
400
400
PAVN = C x (1 – 1/(1+r)t x (1 + r)
r
PV = = = $1,724.85

Your company is considering leasing $120.000
piece of equipment for the next 10 years. The
annual lease payments of $15.000 are due
beginning of each year. The buy the equipment
for $25.000 at the end of the leasing period.
Should your company accept the lease offer if
appropriate discount rate is 8 percent a year?
Perpetuities
PV of Perpetuity Formula
PV = c
r
c = cash payment
r = interest rate
Perpetuities & Annuities
Example – Annuities
in order to create an endowment, which pays $100,000
per year, forever, how much money must be set aside
today in the rate of interest is 10% ?
PV = 100,000= $1,000,000
10
The market interest rate is 15 percent. What is the price of
a consol bond that pays $120 annually ?
Perpetuities & Annuities
Example –continued
if the first perpetuity payment will not be
received until three years from today, how
much money needs to be set aside today?
PV = 1,000,000 = $751,315
(1+.10)3
Inflation
Inflation – Rate at which prices as a whole are
increasing.
Nominal Interest Rate – Rate at which money
inveted grows.
Real Interest Rate – Rate at which the
purchasing power of an investment increases.
Inflation
1 + real interest rate = 1+nominal interest rate
1+inflation rate
Approximation formula
Real int. rate = nominal int. rate – inflation rate
Questions and Problem
1.
Ellen, a sophmore mechanical engineering student, receives a call from
an insurance agent, who believes that Ellen is an older woman ready to
retire from teaching. He talks to her about several annuities that she could
buy that would guarantee her an annual fixed income. The annuities are
as fllows:
Annuity
Initial payment into
annuity (At t=0)
Amount of money
received year
Duration of Annuity
(Years)
A
$50,000
$8,500
12
B
$60,000
$7,000
25
C
$70,000
$8,000
20
If Ellen could earn 12 percent on her money by placing it in savings
account, should she place it instead in any of the annuities? Which ones,
if any? Why ?
Questions and Problem
2. You are triying to plan for retirement in 10 years and currently you have
$150,000 in savings account and $250,000 in stock. In addition, you plan to
add to your savings by depositing $8,000 per year in your saving account at
the end of each of the next five years and then $10,000 per year at the end
of each year for the final five years until retirement.
a. Assumsing your savings account returns 8 percent compounded
annually and your investment in stocks will return 12 percent
compounded annually, how much will you have at the end of 10
years? (ignore taxes)
b. if you expect to live 20 years after you retire, and at a retirement you
deposit all of your savings in a bank account paying 11 percent, how
much can you withdraw each year after retirement (20 equal
withdrawls beginning one year after you retire) to end up with zerobalance at death?
What Is Capital Budgeting


Capital budgeting involves the decision making
process with respect to investment in fixed assets;
specifically, it involves measuring the incremental
cash flows associated with investment proposals
and evaluating the attractiveness of these cash
flows relative to the project’s costs
Capital budgeting is decision process that
managers use to identify those projects that add to
the firm’s value, and as such it is perhaps the most
important task faced by financial managers and
their staffs.



First, a firm’s capital budgeting decisions
define its strategic direction, because moves
into new products, services, or markets must
be preceded by capital expenditures.
Second, the results of capital budgeting
decisions continue for many years
Thied, poor capital budgeting can have serious
finacial consequences.
Projects Classifications
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Replacement – Worn out equipment
Replacement – Reduce costs
Expansian of existing produkcts or markets
Expansion into new products or markets
Safety/environmental projects
Recearch and Developments
Other
JENIS-JENIS PROYEK


Independent Projects: if the cash flows of one
are unaffected by the acceptance of the other.
Acceptance or rejection of project depends upon
merits of project compared to decision criteria.
Mutualli Exclusive Prjocts: if the cash flows of
one can be adversely impacted by the acceptance
of the other.
The acceptance of one project excludes the
possibility of accepting the other(s)
An Example of Mutally Exclusive
Projects
BRIDGE vs BOAT
to get products across a river
Some Alternative Invesment
Rules
•
•
•
•
•
•
Payback Period
Discounted Payback
Net Present Value (NPV)
Profitability Index
Internal Rate of Return
Modified internal rate of Return (MIRR)
Payback Period
• How long does it take to get the initial cost
back in a nominal sense?
• Computation


Estimate the cash flows
Subtract the future cash flows from the initial cost
until the initial investment has been recovered
• Decision Rule - Accept if the payback period
is less than some preset limit
Net Cash Flows for Projects S and L
Project S :
0
-1,000
1
500
2
400
3
300
4
100
Project L :
0
-1,000
1
100
2
300
3
400
4
600
Payback S = 2 + $100/$300= 2.33 years
Payback L= 3 + $200/$600 = 3.33 years
Advantages and Disadvantages of Payback
 Advantages
 Disadvantages
 Easy ro undersand
 ignore the time value of money
 adjusts for uncertainly of later
cash flows
 requres an arbitrary cutoff point
 Biased towards liquidity
 Ignores cash flows beyond the cutoff
date
Biased againt long-term projects,
such as recearch and development,
and new projects
Discounted Payback Period
• Compute the present value of each cash flow
and then determinane how long it takes to
Payback on a discounted basis
• Compare to a specified required period
• Decision Rule – Accept the project if it pays
back on a discounted basis within the
specified time
Projects S and L: Discounted Payback Period
Project S :
Disc. NCF (at 10%)
Project L :
Disc. NCF (at 10%)
0
-1,000
-1,000
1
500
455
2
400
331
3
300
225
4
100
68
0
-1,000
-1,000
1
100
91
2
300
248
3
400
301
4
600
410
Payback S = 2 + $100/$300= 2.33 years
Payback L= 3 + $200/$400 = 3.33 years
Net Present Value
Net Present Value – Present value of cash
flows minus initial invesments
Opportunity Cost of Capital – Expected rate
of return given up by investing in a project
NPV= -Co + C + C +….+ C = -Co +
(1+r)
(1+r)2
(1+r)N
C
(1+r)T
The Net Present Value Method :
Equal to or greater
than zero
Accept the
inevestment
Net Present
Value
Less than zero
Reject the
investment
Minimum Acceptance Criteria: Accept if NPV > O
Ranking Criteria: Choose the highest NPV
Net Present Value (NPV)
NPV =
-1,000 + 500
(1+0,10)1
Cash Flows
0
-1000
454.55
330.58
225.39
68.30
Net Present Value
78.82
400
(1+0,10)2
300
(1+0,10)3
100
(1+0,10)4 =78.82
1
2
3
4
500
400
300
100
NPV – Decision Rule
• A positive NPV means that the project is
expected to add value to the firm and will
therefore increase the wealth of the owners.
• Since our goal is to increase owner wealth,
NPV is a direct measure of how well this
project will meet our goal.
Goo Attributes of the NPV Rule
1. Uses csh flows
2. Uses ALL cash flows of the project
3. Discounts ALL cash flows properly
 Reinvestment assumption: the NPV rule
assumes that all cash flows can be reinvested
at the discount rate.
Profitability Index (PI)
PI = Total PV of Future Cash Flows
Initial Investment
 Pls = $1,078.82/$1,000=1.079
 Minimum Acceptance Criteria:

Accept if PI > 1
 Ranking Criteria:

select alternative with highest PI
Profitability Index (PI)
• Disadvantages

problem with mutually exclusive invesments
• Advantages:



maybe usesful when available invesment funds
are limited
Easy to undersantand and communicate
Correct decision when evaluating independent
projects
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
• Definition : IRR is the return that makes the
NPV= 0
• Decision Rule: Accept the project if the IRR is
greater than the required return
CFo +
CF1
(1+IRR)
-
1,000 + 500
(1+r)
IRRs = 14.5%
+
+……+ CFn
CF2
(1+0,10)2
+ 400
(1+r)2
=
0
(1+IRR)n
+ 300
(1+r)3
+
100 + = 0
(1+r)4
CFo +
CF1
+ CF2 +……+ CFn
(1+IRR)
(1+0,10)2
(1+IRR)n
- 1,000 + 100 + 300
(1+r)
(1+r)2
IRRL = 14.8%
+ 400
(1+r)3
=
0
+ 600 + = 0
(1+r)4
NPV Vs. IRR
• NPV and IRR will generally give us the same
decision
• Exceptions


non-conventional cash flows – cash flow signs
change more than once
Mutually exclusive projects
•
•
initial invesments are substantially different
Timing of cash flows is substantially different
Example - Non – conventional Cash flows
• Suppoese an investment will cost $90,000
initially and will generate the following
cash flows:



Year 1: 132,000
Year 2: 100,000
Year 3:-150,000
• The required return is 15%
• Should we accept or reject the project?
IRR and Mutually Exclusive Projects
• Mutually exclusive projects


If you choose one, you can’t choose the other
Example: you can choose to attend graduate
scholl at either Havard or Standard, but not both
• Intuitively you would use the following
decision rules:


NPV – choose the project with the higher NPV
IRR - choose the project with the higher IRR
Example With Mutually Exclusive Projects
Period
Project A
Project B
0
-500
-400
1
325
325
2
325
200
IRR
19.43%
22.17%
NPV
64.05
60.74
The required return
for both projects is 10%
Which project should
you accept and why?
Conflicts Between NPV and IRR
• NPV directly measures the increase in value to
the firm
• Whenever there is a conflict between NPV
and another decision rule, you should always
use NPV



IRR is unrealiable in the following situations
non-conventaional cash flows
Mutually exclusive projects
Managers like rates—prefer IRR to NPV
comparisons. Can we give them
• Yes, MIRR is the discount rate that causes the
PV of a projec’ts terminal value (TV) to equal
the PV of cost. TV is found by compounding
inflows at WACC
• Thus, MIRR assumes cash inflow are
reinvested at WACC.
PV of costs= terminal Value
(1 + MIRR)
Modified Internal Rate of Return
Your division is considering two invesment
projects:
Year
a.
b.
c.
d.
Project A
Project B
0
-$25
-$25
1
5
20
2
10
10
3
15
8
4
20
6
Compute the payback, discounted payback, NPV, PI, IRR, and MIRR for the
following two projects. Assume the required return is 10%
If two project mutually exclusive and COC 5%, which project should the firm
undertake?
If two project mually eclusive and COC 15%, which project should the firm
undertake?
What is the crossover rate?
Case
• Your first assigment in your new position as assistant financial analyst at
Caledonia Products is to evaluate two new capital-budgeting proposals.
Because this is your first assigment, you have been asked not only to
provide a recommendation, but also to respond to a number budgeting
process. This is a standard procedure for all new financial analysts at
Caledonia and will serve to determine whether you are moved directly
into the capital-budgeting analysis departement or are provided with
remedial training. The memorandum you received outlining your
assgment follows:
to
: The New Financial Analyst
from
: Mr. V. Morrison, CEO, Caledonia Products
RE
: capital-budgeting analysis
provide an evaluation of two proposed projects, both with five-year
expected lives and identical initial outlays of $110,000. Both of these
projects involeve addition to Caledonia’s highly successful Avalon
product line, and as a result, the required rate of return on both
projects has been established at 12 percent. The expected free cash
flows from each project are as follows:
Project A
Initial Outlay
Project B
-$110,000
-$110,000
Year 1
20,000
40,000
Year 2
30,000
40,000
Year 3
40,000
40,000
Year 4
50,000
40,000
Year 5
70,000
40,000
In evaluating these projects, please respond to the following quetsions:
a. Why is the capital-budgeting process so important?
b. Dtermine the payback, discounted payback, NPV, PI, IRR and MIRR,
should they be accepted?
c. What would happen to the NPV and PI, if the required rate of return
increased? If the required rate of return decreased?
d. How does a change in the required rate of return affect the project’s
IRR?
The Dilemma at Day-Pro
• the Day-Pro Chemical Corporation, established I 1995, has managed
to earn a consistently high rate of return on its investments. The
scret of its success has been strategic and timely development,
manufacturing, and marketing of innovative chemical product that
have been used in various industries. Currently, the management of
the company is considering the manufacture of a thermosetting
resin as packaging material for electronical products. The
company’s recearch an development teams have come up produce
initially but would have greater economies of scale. At the initial
presentation, the project leaders of both teams presented their
cash flow projections and provided sufficient documentation in
support of their proposals. However. Since the products are
mutually exclusive, the firm can only fund one proposal.
• In order to resolve this dilemma, Tim Palmer, the Assistant
Treasurer, and a recent MBA from a prestigious midwestern university, has been assigned the task of analyzing
the costs and benefits of the two proposals and presenting
his findings to the board of directors. Tim knows that this
will be an uphill task, since comes to financial concepts. The
Boar has historically had a strong preference for using rates
of return as its decision criteria. On occasion it has also
used the payback period approach to decide between
competing projects. However, Tim is convinced that when
net present value (NPV) method is least flawed and when
used correctly will always add the most value to a
company’s wealth.
• After obtaining the cash flow projections for each
project (see Tables 1 & 2), and crunching out the
numbers, Tim realizes that the hill is going to be
steeper than he thought. The various capital
budgeting techniques, when applied to the two
series of cash flows, provide inconsistent results.
The project with the higher NPV has a longer
payback period, as a lower Accounting rate of
Return (ARR) and Internal Rate of return (IRR).
Tim scratches his head, wondering how can
convince the Board that the IRR, ARR, and
payback often lead to incorrect decisions.
• The day-Pro Chemical Corporation, established I 1995, has managed to
earn a consistently high rate of return on its invesments. The scret of its
success has been strategic aand timely development, manufacturing, and
marketing of innovative chemical products that have been used in various
industries. Currently, the management of the company is considering the
manufacture of a thermosetting resin as packaging material for electronic
products. The company’s Recearch and Development teams have come up
presentations and provided sufficient documentation in support of their
proposals. However, since the products are mutually exclusive, the firm
can only fund one proposal.
in order to resolve this dilemma, Tim Palmer, the Assistant Treasurer,
and a recent MBA from a presentigious mi-western university, has been
assigned task of analyzing the costs and benefits of the two proposals be
an uphill task, since the board members are not all on the same page
when comes to financial concepts.
The Board has historically had a strong preference for using rates of
return as its decision creteria. On occasion it has also used the
payback period approach to decide between competing projects.
Howerer, Tim is convinced that the net present value (NPV) method
is least flawed and when used correctly will always add the most
value to a company’s wealth.
after obtaining the cash flow projections for each project (see
Table 1&2) and crunching out the numbers, Tim realizezs that the
hill is going to be steeper to the two series of cash flows, provide
inconsistent results. The project with the higher NPV has a longer
payback period, as well as a lower Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
and Internal Rate of Return (IRR). Tim scratches his head,
wondering how he can convince the Board that the IRR, ARR, and
payback Period can lead to incrorrect decision.
Syntetic Resin
Year 0
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Net Income
150,000 200,000
300,000
450,000
500,000
Depreciation
200,000 200,000
200,000
200,000
200,000
Net cash flow
(1000,000) 350,000 400,000
500,000
650,000
700,000
Epoxy Resin
Year 0
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 1
Year 2
Net Income
440,000 240,000
140,000
40,000
40,000
Depreciation
160,000 160,000
160,000
160,000
160,000
600,000 400,000
300,000
200,000
200,000
Net cash flow
(800,000)
Questions
1. Calculate the payback period of each project. Expalin what
argument Tim should make to shaow the payback period
is not appropriate is this case.
2. Calculate the Discounted Payback Period (DPP)using 10%
as the discount rate. Should the tim ask the board to use
DPP as the deciding factor? Explain.
3. Calculate the two project’ IRR. How should Tim convince
the Board that the NPV method is the way to go?
4. Explain how Tim can show that the Modified Internal Rate
of Return (MIRR) is the more realistic measure to use in
the case of mutually exclusive projects
5. Calculate the Profitability for each proposal. Can this
measure help to solve the dilemma? Explain.
CAPITAL BUDGETING AND
CASH FLOW ANALYSIS
PROSES PENGANGGARAN MODAL
1. Tentukan biaya proyek
2. Perkirakan aliranb kas yang diharapkan dari proyek,
termasuk nilai akhir aktiva
3. Risiko dari lairan kas proyek harus dietimasi. (memakai
distribusi probabilitas aliran kas)
4. Dengan mengetahui risiko dari proyek, manajemen harus
menentukan biaya modal (cost of capital) yang tepat
untuk mendiskon aliran kas proyek
5. Tentukan nilai sekarang aliran kas masuk yang diharapkan
digunakan untuk memperkirakan nilai aktiva.
6. Terakhir, nilai sekarang dari lairan kas yang diharapkan
dibandingkan dengan biayanya.
HAL PENTING DALAM ESTIMASI ALIRAN KAS
1. Keputusan dalam capital budgeting harus didasarkan
pada aliran kas setelah pajak.
2. Hanya memeperhatikan incremental cash flow yang
relevan.
3. Memperhatikan aliran kas yang timbul karena
keptusan investasi, aliran kas dari keputusan
pendanaan tidak perlu diperhatikan (ex: bunga,
cicilan, deviden)
4. Tidak memasukan sunk cost (biaya yang telah terjadi)
5. Opportunity cost harus diperhitungkan secara tepat
dalam analis penganggaran modal.
Project Cash Flows
• Initial outlay. This include the cost of the fixed assets
associated with the project plus any initial invesment in
net operating working capital, such as raw materials
• Opertaing cash flow. The operating cash flow is the net
operating profit after taxes plus depreciation
• Terminal cash flow. At the end of the project’s life.
Usually generated from: salvage value of the fixed
assets, adjusted for taxes if the assets are not sold at
their book value, return of net operating working
capital
Project Cash Flows
When deciding whether or not to make an invesment, we must first
estimate the cash flows that the invesment will provide
 Generally, these cash flows can be categorized as follows:



the initial outlay (IO)
operating cash Flows
The terminal cash flows (TCF)
Operating
Cash flow
Initial
Outlay
0
1
2
3
4
5
terminal
cash flow
6
Sebagai manejer keuangan yang baru ditunjuk di Blooper Industries, Anda akan
menganalisis sebuah proposal penambangan dan penjualan biji magnisium
kelas satu yang langka. Proyek ini memerlukan investasi $10 juta. Setelah 5
tahun kandungan biji magnesium habis, metode penyusutan adalah garis
lurus, dengan nilai buku pada kahir tahun menjadi nol. Pada tahun ke
enam peralatan mungkin dapat dijual senilai $2 juta. Untuk itu
perusahaan dikenal tagihan pajak pada tahun ke enam senilai 35%+ x
$2= $0.70. sehingga arus kas bersih dari penjualan aktiva tahun ke enam
adalah $2- $0.7= $1.3 juta. Ramalan modal kerja dari Blooper Industries
adalah sbb:
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
$0
$2.500
$2.625
$2.756
$2.894
$3.039
$0
Persediaan
1.500
1.575
1.654
1.736
1.823
0
0
M. kerja
1.500
4.075
4.279
4.493
4.717
3.039
0
Piutang
Perusahaan memperkirakan mampu menjual 750.000 pon magnesium
per tahun dengan harga $20, harga akan meningkat sesuai dengan
tingklat inflasi, beban operasi diperkirakan sebesar 2/3 dari pendapatan.
Tingkat inflasi 5%, dari tarif pajak 35%. Tentukan Cash Flows
0
1
2
3
4
5
A. Aktiva Tetap
Investasi aset tetap
-100.000
Penjualan asset tetap
21,758
Opportunity cost
-150,000
150,000
Arus kas, investasi aset tetap
-250,000
171,758
B. Modal Kerja
Modal kerja
10,000
10,000
16,320
24,969
21,224
0
Perubahan modal kerja
10,000
0
6,320
8,649
-3745
-21,224
-10,000
0
-6,320
-8,649
3,745
21,224
100,000
163,200
249,696
212,242
129,892
Beban operasi
50,000
88,000
145,200
133,100
87,846
Depresiasi
20,000
32,000
19,200
11,520
11,520
Laba sebelum pajak
30,000
43,200
85,296
67,622
30,526
pajak
10,200
14,688
29,000
22,991
10,526
Laba setelah pajak
19,800
28,512
56,296
44,631
20,147
Arus kas dari operasi
39,800
60,512
75,496
56,151
31,667
39,800
54,192
66,847
59,896
224,649
Arus kas investasi modalkerja
C. Operasi
Pendapatan
D. Penilaian
Total arus kas proyek
NPV (DF 12%)
-260,000
5,475
Analisis Arus kas Proyek Penggantian
PT Tekstil membeli mesin pintal 10 tahun yang lalu dengan $75.000. mesin tersebut
memiliki usia ekonomis selama 15 tahun dan sisusutkan dengan metode garis
lurus, tanpa nilai sisa. Jadi nilai buku mesin saar ini adalah $25.000. perusahaan
merencangkan akan mengganti mesin lama dengan mesin baru. Mesin baru
yang sejenis dapat dibeli dengan harga $120.000, dengan usia ekonomis 5
tahun, disusutkan dengan MACRS. Nilai sisa jika dijual rugi $15.000. pajak
perusahaan 40%. Apabila penggantian itu dilakukan dapat menghemat biaya
sebesar $50.000 per tahun. Buatlah estimasi cash flow selama 5 tahun. Apakah
proyek layak dijalankan, bila biaya dana 20%
Th
Penyusutan
Nilai buku
$120,000
0
1
20,00% x $120,000 = 24,000
$96,000
2
32,00% x$120,000 = 38,400
57,600
3
19,20% x $120,000 = 23,040
34,560
4
11,52% x $120,000 = 13,824
20,736
5
11,52% x $120,000 = 13,824
6,912
Tabel: Estimasi Arus Kerja
keterangan
Tahun
0
1
2
3
4
5
Initial cash flow
– Harga mesin baru
– Penjulan mesin lama
– Tax saving
(40%x$15.000)
-120.000
10.000
6.000
Operating
– Penghematan biaya
– Dep mesin baru
– Dep mesin lama
– Tambahan
penyusutan
– Laba sebelum pajak
– Pajak
– Laba bersih
– Operating cash flow
50.000
24.000
5.000
19.000
31.000
12.400
18.600
37.600
50.000
38.400
5.000
33.400
16.600
6.640
9.960
43.360
50.000
23.040
5.000
18.040
31.960
12.784
19.176
37.216
50.000
13.824
5.000
8.824
41.176
16.470
24.706
33.530
50.000
13.824
5.000
8.824
41.176
16.470
24.706
33.530
Terminla cash flow
– Nilai sisa mesin baru
Proyeksi cash flow
NPV (DF 20%)
6.912
-104.000
11,404
37.600
43.360
37.216
33.530
40.442
Soal
Scoty Corporation pembuat komponen elektronik. Scoty
mempertimbangkan untuk mengganti satu mesin perakit yang
dioperasikan dengan tangan dengan mesin baru nyang otomatis.
Mesin perakit tersebut dibeli 5 thaun yang lalu dengan harga $50,000,
umur ekonomis 10 tahun. Harga mesin baru $60,000, usia
ekonomis 5 tahun, tanpa nilai sisa
Situasi sekarang
(mesin perakit manual)
Gaji operator
Situasi yang diajukan
(mesin perakit otomatis)
$25,000
Gaji operator
0
Biaya perawatan/thn
2,000
Biaya pemasangan
$3,000
Biaya kerusakan/thn
6,000
Biaya pengiriman
$3,000
Depresiasi tahunan
5,000
Biaya perawatan/thn
$3,000
Nilai jual sekarang
5,000
Biaya kerusakan/thn
$3,000
34%
Usia yang diharapkan
5 tahun
Tingkat pajak
Nilai jual akhir tahun ke 5
20,000
Buatlah estimasi cash flows, apakah proyek layak dijlankan bila
biaya dana 16%
Tabel: Estimasi Arus Kas
Keterangan
Tahun
0
Initial cash Flow
1. Harga mesin baru ditambha
pemasangan & pengiriman
2. Penjualan mesin lama
3. Tax saving 34%(25,000-5.000)
1
2
3
4
5
25.000
3,000
13.200
5.000
8,200
1,000
18,800
6,392
12,408
20,608
25.000
3,000
13.200
5.000
8,200
1,000
18,800
6,392
12,408
20,608
25.000
3,000
13.200
5.000
8,200
1,000
18,800
6,392
12,408
20,608
25.000
3,000
13.200
5.000
8,200
1,000
18,800
6,392
12,408
20,608
25.000
3,000
13.200
5.000
8,200
1,000
18,800
6,392
12,408
20,608
20,608
20,608
20,608
20,608
33,808
-66.000
5.000
6.800
Operating cash flow
4. Pengurangan gaji operator
5. Pengurangan biaya kerusakan
6. Dep Mesin baru
7. Dep mesin lama
8. Tambahan penyusutan
9. Tambahan biaya perawatan
10. EBT (4+5-8-9)
11. Pajak (34%)
12. Laba bersih
13. Operating cash flow (12=8)
Terminal cash flow
14. Nilai jual mesin baru
15. Pajak: 34%(20,000-0)
Proyeksi cash flow
NPV (DF 16%)
-54,200
19,561
Problem
• PT. A sedang mempertimbangkan pembelian
panggangan baru yang hemat energi. Panggangan
ini berharga $40,000 dan akan disusutkan
menurut skedul MACRS 3 tahun. Panggangan
ini akan ndijual sebagai besi tua setelah 3
tahun senilai $10,000. panggangan ini tidak
berdampak pada penerimaan tapi akan
menghemat biaya energi sebesar $20,000.
tingkat pajak 35%, dan biaya modal 12%.
• Apakah panggangan ini seharusnya dibeli?
The Unequal Lives Problem
• There are two ways to correctly deal with the unequal lives
problem
 The replacement chain approach
 The equivalent annual annuity approach
• Misalkan Anda harus memilih di antara 2 mesin, yang umurnya
berbeda, tapi memiliki kapasitas iidentik dan melakukan
pekerjaan yang persis sama.
Biaya (ribuan dolar)
0
1
2
3
PV pada
6%
Mesin A
15
4
4
4
$25.69
Mesin B
10
6
6
Mesin mana yang sebaiknya dipilih ?
$21.00
Memilih di antara 2 proyek yang mutually
exclusive
Tahun
Proyek A Proyek B
0
-$4.000
-$2.000
1
800
700
2
1.400
1.300
3
1.300
1.200
4
1.200
5
1.100
6
1.000
0
1
NPV B1
PV
=612,32
=460.03
1.072,35
2
Jika discount rate = 10%
NPV proyek A = $928,11
NPV proyek B = $612,32
EAA untuk proyek A = $213,11
EAA untuk proyek B = $246,21
3
4
NPV B2=612,32
5
6
Metode Penyusutan
• Metode garis lurus: metode penyusutan yang
mengalokasikan biaya secara merata selama usia
penyusutan aktiva
• Sum of year’s digit method: metode penyusutan
dengan penjumlahan angka tahunan
• Double decline balance method: dengan
formulasi 2(1/n) NBV
• MACRS : dengan menggunakan tabel tarif MACRS
berikut:
Tahun
Kelas Properti
Pemulihan
3 tahun
5 tahun
7 tahun
10 tahun
1
33,33%
20,00%
14,29%
10,00%
2
44,45%
32,00%
24,49
18,00%
3
14,81%
19,20
17,49%
14,40%
4
7,41%
11,52%
12,49%
11,52%
5
11,52%
8,93%
9,22%
6
5,76%
8,93%
7,37%
7
6,55%
8
6,55%
9
6,55%
10
6,55%
11
3,28%
Total
100,00%
100,00%
100,00%
100,00%
Capital Rationing
(limit set on the amount of funds available for investment)
• Firms should implement all positive NPV
projects

this will maximize shareholder wealth
• Firms often limi the projects that are
considerations
• Capital Rationing: process of limiting
availability of capital dollars
Capital Rationing
Anggaplah biaya modal 10%, dan perusahaan memiliki sumber daya total $20
juta, saat ini perusahaan dihadapkan pada beberapa proposal proyek
sbb:
Proyek
Arus kas (jutaan dolar)
PV
(DF10%)
Indeks
Profitabilitas
investasi
CF 1
CF 2
J
-$3
$2.2
$2.42
$4
1/3=0.33
K
-$5
$2.2
$4.84
$6
1/5=0.2
L
-$7
$6.6
$4.84
$10
3/7=0.43
M
-$6
$3.3
$6.05
$8
2/6=0.33
N
-$4
$1.1
$4.84
$5
¼=0.25
Karena dana terbatas $20 juta, maka Proyek yang dipilih: L,J,M, dan N
Jika dana terbatas 10 juta, proyek mana yang dipilih?
Capital Rationing
Hat company is considering seven capital investment propoasl, for which the
funds available are limited to a maximum of $12 million. The projects are
independent and have the following cost and profitability index
associated with them:
Project
Cost
PI
A
$4,000,000
1,18
B
3000,000
1,08
C
5,000,000
1,33
D
6,000,000
1,31
E
4,000,000
1,19
F
6,000,000
1,20
G
4,000,000
1,18
Under strict capital rationing, which projects should be selected ?
Study Problems
Jack tar, CFO sheetbend Inc, membuka amplo rahasia perusahaan. Isinya adalah
draft tawaran untuk kontrak memasok kanvas ransel pada angkatan Laut AS. Surat
memo dari CFO sheetbend meminta mengkaji tawaran itu sebelum diajukan.
Tawaran dan dokumen pendukungnya disiapkan oleh staf penjualan
sheetbend. Sheetbend diminta memasok 100.000 yard kanvas ransel selama 5
tahun, dengan harga jual adalah tetap sebesar $30 per yard
Tn. Tar tidak biasanya terlibat dalam penjualan. Tapi tawaran ini tidak
akan berkomitmen pada Sheetbend dengan kontrak jangka panjang dan harga tetap.
Kedua memproduksi kanvas ransel membutuhkan $1.5 Tar mulai bekerja pada
akhir minggu mengumpulkan fakta dan asumsi sbb:
- Pabrik di Oleasantoro dibangun tahun 1900 an dan sekarang menganggur.
Pabrik ini diusutkan penuh di permukaan Sheetbend, kecuali biaya
pembelian tanah (19470 senilai $10,000
- Sekarang tanah itu adalah properti pinggir pantai yang bernilai. Tar berfikir
tanah dan pabrik yang menganggur itu bisa dijual dalam waktu dekat
dengan harga $600,000
- Merenovasi pabrik akan berbiaya $500,000. invetasi ini akan
diusutka secara garis lurus selama 10 tahun
- Mesin baru akan berbiaya $1 juta. Investasi ini bisa diusutkan
secara garis lurus selama 5 tahun
- Pabrik yang direnovasi dan mesin baru akan berusia bertahuntahun. Akan tetapi, pasar yang tersisa untuk kanvas ransel itu
kecil, dan tidak jelas apakah order tambahan bisa diperoleh
begitu kontrak AL berakhir. Mesin ini khusus dan hanya nbisa
digunkan untuk kanvas ransel . Nilai jual bekasnya diakhir
tahun ke lima mungkin nol.
- Modal kerja pada awal tahun adalah $300.000, dan modal
kerja ini diperkirakan 10% dari total pendapatan.
- Ramalan laba staf penjualan dari kontrak AL, dapat dilihat
pada tabel 1
- Saat ini ada tawaran dari penjualan dari perusahaan
pengembang real estate untuk membeli tanah dan pabrik
Pleasantboro milik Sheetbend dengan harga $1,5 juta tunai
Tabel 1
Dalam Ribuan
1
2
3
4
5
1. Penjualan (yard)
100
100
100
100
100
2. Harga per yard
$30
$30
$30
$30
$30
3. Pendapatan ($)
$3,000
$3,000
$3,000
$3,000
$3,000
2,100
2,184
2,271
2,362
2,457
5. Arus kas operasi (3-4)
900
816
729250
638
543
6. Penyusutan
250
250
250
250
250
7. Laba operasi (5-6)
650
566
479
388
293
227,5
198,1
167,7
135,8
102,5
$422,5
367,9
311,3
252,2
190,5
4. Harga pokok penjualan
8. Pajak (35%)
9. Laba bersih (7-8)
Apakah Tn. Tar seharusnya merekomendasikan
mengajukan tawaran pada AL pada harga proposal $30
per yard?. Tingkat dikonto untuk proyek 12%
2. PT. “Dallas” sedang mengevaluasi proyek
pembelian mesin baru. Harga mesin Rp 175 juta,
dengan tambahan biaya pemasangan Rp 25 juta.
Usia mesin adalah 5 tahun. Nilai buku mesin
pada akhir tahun ke 5 adalah 0, tapi mesin masih
dapat dijual sebagi besi tua dengan harga 5 juta.
Mesin memerlukan tambahan modal kerja bersih
Rp 10 juta, dan dengan penggunaan mesin
tersebut dapat menghemat biaya sebelum pajak
sebesar Rp 80 juta per tahun. Tingkat pajak
adalah 15%. Haruskah mesin dibeli apabila biaya
modal PT Dallas adalah 15% ?
INTRODUCTION TO RISK IN
CAPITAL BUDGETING
What measure of risk is relevant in
capital budgeting
• In capital budgeting, a project can be looked
at on three levels:
1. Stand-alone risk
2. Corporate risk
3. Systematic risk
Stand Alone Risk
Mengukur stand-alone risk berarti mengukur ketidakpastian
keuntungan atau kepastian arus kas
Usulan Investasi A
Usulan Investasi B
Probabilitas
Arus kas
Probabilitas
Arus kas
0,10
3,000
0,05
3,000
0,20
4,000
0,20
4,000
0,40
5,000
0,50
5,000
0,20
6,000
0,20
6,000
0,10
7,000
0,05
7,000
E(CF) = 5.000
E(V)= 5.000
Ơ A=1.095
ƠB=894
Apabila E(V) dari kedua investasi tidak sama,
maka penggunaan Ơ sebagai indikator risiko
menjadi sulit dilakukan, untuk itu digunakan
coefficient of variation (CV) CV = Ơ/E(V)
C
D
1.000
1.500
Ơ
400
500
CV
0,40
0,33
E(V)
Problem
• Misalkan saudara diminta untuk memilih salah satu diantara kedua
proyek berikut ini:
A
B
NPV
Prob
NPV
Prob
$100
0,30
$300
0,30
$400
0,40
$500
0,40
$700
0,30
$700
0,30
Pertanyaan:
a. Dengan menggunakan NPV maksimum yang diharpkan, proyek
mana yang saudara pilih?
b. Dengan menggunakan coenffidient of variation, proyek mana yang
saudara pilih?
Risiko Proyek
Beberapa metode yang bisa digunakan antara
lain:
a. Analisis Sensitivitas
b. Analisis Scenario
c. Analisis Pohon Keputusan
d. Analisis Berak Even
Mean-standard deviation Analysis
• Dilakukan dengan memasukan arus kas dari setiap kondisi
perekonomian, yang akan membentuk probabilitas untuk NPV
kemudian menghitung probabilitas untuk NPV tertentu.
• Pendekatan ini mengasumsikan bahwa arus kas bersifat
independen dari waktu ke waktu. Rata-rata (mean) distribusi
probabilitas NPV adalah:
krf= suku bunga bebas risiko
Risiko dari proyek adalah:
Mean-standard deviation Analysis
Kondisi perokonomian
Arus kas masuk bersih
Prob
Thn 1
Thn 2
Thn 3
Thn 4
Resesi
0,25
$4.300
$4.570
$4.400
$19.716
Rata-rata
0,50
$7.302
$7.747
$7.333
$23.716
Baik
0,25
$9.812
$10.400
$10.450
$30.880
CFT
$7.179
$7.616
$7.397
$24.507
Ơ
$1.952
$2.065
$2.139
$4.025
NPV =$9.103
ƠNPV = $54.090
krf =10%
Problem
perusahaan Anda memperoleh informas arus kas proyek sbb:
Thn 1
Thn 2
Thn 3
Prob
Arus kas
Prob
Arus kas
Prob
Arus kas
0,1
$1.000
0,2
$1.000
0,2
$1.000
0,2
$2.000
0,3
$2.000
0,3
$2.000
0,3
$3.000
0,4
$3.000
0,4
$3.000
0,4
$4.000
0,1
$4.000
0,1
$4.000
CFT
$1.967,5
ƠNPV
$1.518
a. Tentukan expected NPV, dan standard deviasi NPV
b. Berapa probabilitas proyek akan menghasilkan NPV=0
B. Sensitivity analysis
• Sensitivity analysis involves determinan how
the distribution of possible net present values
or internal rates of return for a particular
project is affected by a change in one
particular input variable. This is done by
changing the value of one input variable while
holding all other input variables constant
Example : Ekspansi proyek BQC
0
1
2
3
4
Pendapatan
40.000
40.000
40.000
40.000
Biaya variable
24.000
24.000
24.000
24.000
Biaya tetap
5.000
5.000
5.000
5.000
Penyusutan
1.756
2.872
1.832
1.272
Laba sebelum pajak
$9.244
$8.128
$9.168
$9.728
Pajak (40%)
3.698
3.251
3.667
3.891
Laba bersih
$5.545
$4.877
$5.501
5.837
Arus kas operasi
$7.302
$7.749
$7.333
$7.109
Bangunan & peralatan
$20.000
kenaikan modal kerja
6.000
CF from Operation
Pengembalian MK
6,000
Nilai sisa
10,607
Net Cash Flow
-$26.000
NPV (12%) = $6.989
$7.302
$7.747
$7.333
$23.716
IRR = 21,9%
Keterbatasan Analisis Sentivitas
• Umumnya risiko stand-alone proyek
tergantung pada faktor:
a. Sensitivitas NPV terhadap variabel kunci
b. Rentang nilai yang mungkin dari variabel
tersebut seperti tercermin dalam distribusi
probabilitasnay
• Analisis sensitivitas hanya mempertimbangkan
faktor (1), maka analisis tidak lengkap
C. Scenario Analysis
• Project analysis given a particular combination of assumptions
Skenario
Prob
Volume penjualan
Harga jual
NPV (ribuan $)
Terburuk
0,25
15.000 unit
$1.500
-$5.768
Base case
0,50
20.000 unit
$2.000
$6.989
Terbaik
0,25
25.0000 unit
$2.500
$23.390
NPV yang diharapkan
$7.900
ơNPV
$10.349
CVNPV
1,3
NPV yang diharapkan =
ơNPV =
Pi (NPVi)
• Shao ondustries is considering a proposed project for its capital
budget. The company estimayes that the project’s NPV is $12
million. This estimate assumes that the company and market
conditions will average over the next few years. The company’s
CFO, howerer, forecast that there is only a 50 percent chance
that the economy will be average. Reconizing this uncertainty,
she has also performed the following scenario analysis.
Economic scenario
Probability of outcome
NPV
Recession
0,05
($70 million)
Bellow average
0,20
($25million)
Average
0,50
$12 million
Above average
0,20
$20 million
Boom
0,05
$30 million
What is the project’s expected NPV, standard deviantion and
coefficient of variantion.
D. Analisis Pohon Keputusan
• Digunakan untuk mengevaluasi proyek-proyek
yang memiliki beberapa titik pembuatan
keputusan. Arus kas dan probabilitasnya
digambarkan dalam suatu diagram pohon
yang disebut dengan pohon keputusan.
Kemudian probabilita gabungan dari setiap
cabang dikalikan dengan NPV dari cabang
tersebut dan hasilnya dijumlahkan untuk
memperoleh expected NPV
= 17. 677
Ơ NPV =
= 22.020
E. Break Even Analysis
Example
given the forecasted data on the next slide,
determine the number of olanes that the
company must produce in order to break
even, on an NPV basis. The company’s cost of
capital is 10%.
Break Even Analysis
Investment
Year 0 years 1-6
$900
.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Sales
Var. cost
Fixed Costs
Depreciation
Pretax Profit
Taxes (50%)
Net Profit
Net Cash Flow – 900
15.5xPlans Sold
8.5xPlanes Sold
175
900/6=150
(7xPlanes Sold) - 325
(3.5x Planes Sold) – 162.5
(3.5x Planes Sold) – 162.5
(3.5x Planes Sold) – 12.5
Break Even Analysis
Answer (Accounting)
the break even point, is the # of Planes sold
were the fixed costs and depreciation = $0.
0 = - (3.5 x Planes Sold – 162.5)
Planes Sold = 165.5/3.5 = 46.4 planes
Atau
Break even =
FC + Depreciation
Price/unit – variable cost/init
Break even akuntasi tidak memperhitungkan opportunity cost investasi awal $900,
meskipun terjadi break even sebenarnya perusahaan masih rugi secara
ekonomis, Manajer keuangan bisa menghitung Break even dengan
memasukan Present value aliran kas.
Break Even Analysis
• Answer (finance)
the break even point, is the # of Planes sold that
generates a NPV= $0
the present value annuity factor of a 6 year
cash flow at 10% is 4.355 thus,
NPV = - 900 + 4.355 (3.5 x Planes Sold – 12.5)
Break Even Analysis
Answer
solving for “Planes Sold”
0 = - 900 + 4.355 (3.5 x Planes Sold – 12.5)
Planes Sold = 63
Problem
• Misalkan perusahaan mencoba menganalisis ususlan investasi. Investasi
awal Rp 1.000 juta, umur 5 tahun, tingkat diskonto 20%. Perhitungan
aliran kas setiap tahun sbb:
Aliran kas
Penjualan (1000 unit)
Rp2.000 juta
Biaya variabel (30%)
600Juta
Biaya tetap
800 juta
Penyusutan
200 juta
Total biaya
1.600 juta
Laba sebelum pajak
400 juta
Laba setelah pajak
160 juta
Aliran kas
240 juta
Pertanyaan : tentukan Break even akuntansi, dan Present Value Break Even?
Methods for incrorporationg risk into
capital budgeting
1. Certainly Equaivalent
2. Risk-Adjusted discount rates
Certanty Equivalent (CE)
• Memasukan risiko dalam perhitungan arus kas
• Konsep CE dapat diterapkan dalam capital
budgeting dengan cara:
a. Perkirakan CE dari kas setiap tahun berdasarkan arus
kas yang diharapkan pada tahun tersebut dan
risikonya
b. Gunakan tingkat bunga bebas risiko (rf) untuk
menghitung NPV proyek
CE =  t ACFt

= arus kas yang pasti
arus kas yang diharapkan
Contoh
Suatu perusahaan dengan tingkat pengembalian yang diinginkan sebesar
10%, sedang membangun sebuah fasilitas penelitian baru dengan umur 5
tahun. Pengeluaran awal proyek $120.000. arus kas masuk yang
diharapkan serta koenfisien tingkat kepastian setara adalah sebagai
berikut:
Arus kas yang diharapkan
t
CE
1
$10.000
0,95
$9.500
2
20.000
0,90
18.000
3
40.000
0,85
34.000
4
80.000
0,75
60.000
5
80.000
0,65
52.000
Tahun
Hitung NPV proyek:
NPV =9.500 + 18.00 + 34.00 + 60.000 + 52.000 – 120.000
(1+10)1
(1+10)2
(1+10)3 (1+10)4
(1+10)5
NPV =$19.902,5
• Norohna Inc, mempertimbangkan 2 proyek yang mutually
exclusive. Nilai yang diharapkan dari arus kas proyek
tersebut adalah sbb:
Tahun
Proyek A
Proyek B
t
t
0
-$300.000
-$300.000
1,00
1,00
1
100.000
200.000
0,95
0,90
2
200.000
200.000
0,90
0,80
3
200.000
200.000
0,85
0,70
4
300.000
300.000
0,80
0,60
5
300.000
400.000
0,75
0,50
Jika tingkat bebas risiko setelah pajak adalah 8%, proyek mana
yang dipilih?
Risk-Adjusted discount Rates
• The use of the risk-adjusted discount rate based on the concept
that investor demand higher returns for more risky projects
• If the risk associated with the invesment is greater than the risk
involved in a typical endeavor, then the discount rate is adjusted
upward to compenaste for this risk
• Expenssed mathematically the net present value using the riskadjusted discount rate becomes
• NPV h
ACFt - Io
t=1 (1+ i*)t
Where
ACFt
I0
i*
n
= the annual after-tax cash flow in time period
= the initial outlay
= the risk adjusted discount rate
= the project’s expected life
Contoh:Risk-Adjusted discount Rates
•
Hokie corporation mempertimbangkan 2 proyek mutually exlusive. Masing-masing
proyek mensyaratkan pengeluaran awal $10.000 dan akan beroperasi selama 5
tahun. Distribusi probabilitas tiap proyek untuk tahun 1 hingga tahun 5 sbb:
Proyek A
Proyek B
Prob
Arus kas
Prob
Arus kas
0,15
$4.000
0,15
$2.000
0,70
$5.000
0,70
$6.000
0,15
$6.000
0,15
$10.000
Oleh karena proyek B yang lebih berisiko, maka manajemen memutuskan
untuk menerapkan tingkat pengembalian 15% pada evaluasinya, dan hanya
12% untuk proyek A. tentukan NPV masing-masing proyek.
NPV A =$8.024
NPV B = $10.113
Risk-adjusted discount rates
Tahun
Arus kas yang diharapkan
0
(2juta)
1
1juta
2
1juta
3
1juta
4
1juta
5
1juta
• Biaya modal perusahaan secara keseluruhan adalah 15%. Perusahaan
menentukan jika proyek yang dianalisis memiliki risiko yang relatif sama
dengan proyek-proyek lain perusahaan pada umumnya, atau memiliki
• Risiko sama dengan rata-rata, i* = 15% (NPV=?)
• Jika di atas rata-rata, premi risiko sebesar 5%, i* = 20%, NPV?
• Jika di bawah rata-rata, premi risiko = - 5%. i*= 10%, NPV?
Corporate risk
• Risiko dalam perusahaan atau corporate risk adalah kontribusi
proyek terhadap risiko total perusahaan, atau dampak proyek
terhadap variabilitas arus kas perusahaan secara keseluruhan
• Corporate risk merupakan fungsi dari deviasi standar proyek dan
korelasi antara keuntungan proyek dengan keuntungan perusahaan
• Corporate risk diukur dengan
bP,F = (ơp/ơF).rp.F
bP,F = within-firm risk atau corporate risk
ơp = deviasi standar keuntungan proyek
ơF = deviasi standar keuntungan perusahaan
rPF = koefisien korelasi antara keuntungan proyek
dengan keuntungan perusahaan
Systematic risk atau market risk
• Risiko pasar atau beta risk adalah risiko suatu proyek
dilihat dari konteks atau sudut pandang investor yang
memiliki portofolio saham atau kontibusi proyek
terhadap risiko portofolio
• Risiko pasar dapat diukur dengan menghitung beta
pasar proyek atau project marker beta
• Beta proyek dapat dihitung dengan cara:
a. meregresi keuntungan proyek dengan keuntungan
portofolio pasar (sebagai variabel bebas)
b. menggunakan beta dari perusahaan lain yang memiliki
bisnis yang sama denganproyek yang dianalisis
Minicase
PT. AGA sedang mempertimbangkan pemeblian traktor yang akan
menelan biaya sebesar Rp 100 juta, akan meningkatkan arus kas
operasi sebelum pajak (tidak termasuk efek depresiasi) sebesar RP
40 juta setahun. Truk akan didepresiasi dengan metode garis lurus
tanpa niali sisa. Pajak adalah 15%, dan biaya modal perusahaan
mengenai usia traktor. Secara khusus Elizabeth meyakinkan bahwa
ia tahu banyak tentang traktor yang hanya mampu bertahun 4
tahun saja. Philip setuju dengan pendapat Elizabeth, tapi ia
mengatakan ada beberapa traktor yang dapat bertahan sampai 5
tahun. Laura berkata bahwa ia ada bebrapa traktor dapat bertahan
samapai 8 tahun. Direktur perusahaan terpaksa menengahi
perdebatan tersebut. Untuk tidak mengecewakan manajernya maka
ia memutuskan untuk mempertimbangkan pendapat ke tiga
manajer tersebut dengan membuat analisis scenario. Ia
memberikan probabilitas 70% bahwa usia traktor 5 tahun, 20%
bahwa usai traktor 4 tahun, dan 10% bahwa usia traktor 8 tahun.
Apakah propoasl proyek pembelian traktor ini dapat diterima?
Cost of Capital
Cost of Capital
Objective :
to get a better understanding of how a
company calculates and employs the cost of
capital in making invesment decisions
Cost of Capital (biaya modal)
Short term debt
Cost of debt (kd)
Long term debt
COC
Preferred stock
Common stock
Cost of Equity (Ke)
New common stock
Retained earning
Cost of Capital
• Biaya modal adalah: biaya yang harus
ditanggung untuk mendapatkan modal baik
yang berasal dari utang, saham, preferen,
saham biasa atau laba ditahan.
• Biaya modal akan tercermin pada tingkat
keuntungan yang disyaratkan oleh masingmasing pemodal
Cost of Capital (biaya modal)
Manfaat biaya modal dalam manajemen
keuangan:
1. Dipakai sebagai discount rate dalam perhitungan
NPV
2. Dipakai sebagai tingkat keuntungan minimal jika
metode IRR digunakan untuk mengevaluasi
propoasl investasi
Menghitung biaya modal
• Biaya modal harus dihitung berdasarkan suatu
basis setelah pajak (after tax basis)
• Masing-masing sumber dana memiliki biaya
modal yang berbeda
• Perhitungan biaya modal dilakukan secara
– Individual
– Keseluruhan dengan menggunakan biaya modal
rata-rata tertimbang (weighted average cost of
capital)
1. Biaya Utang (Cost of Debt)
Biaya utang (kd) merupakan besarnya biaya yang harus
ditanggung oleh perusahaan karena menggunkan dan yang
berasal dari pinjaman, yang tercermin pada tingkat keuntungan
yang disyaratkan oleh pemberi pinjaman.
PN = penerimaan bersih, B= bunga, P= Nilai nominal, nn=
Periode waktu
Contoh 1L
• Andaikan seorang investor bersedia membayar
Rp. 900/lembar untuk suatu obligasi (surat
hutang). Surat berharga tersebut memiliki nilai
nominla sebesar RP 1000/lembar, dengan bunga
tahunan 8%, dan jangka waktu pelunasan 10
tahun. Pajak 30%. Berpa biaya obligasi tersebut?
Kd=9,6%
• Jika dikeluarkan komisi broker (flotation cost) Rp
50, maka penerimaan bersih Rp 850, berapa
biaya obligasi tersebut? Kd =10,5%
• Jika obligasi terjual seharga nilai nominla kd = 8%
Contoh 2
• Assume that basket Wonders (BW) has $1,000 per value zerocoupon bonds ountstanding. BW bonds are currently trading
at $385.45 with 10 years to mutually. BW tax bracket is 40%
$385.54 =
(1 + kd)10
(1 + kd)
kd
$0 + $1,000
(1 + kd) 10
= $1,000/$385.54
= (2.5938) (1/10)
= 1 or 10%
2. The cost of capital for preferred stock
• Biaya modal saham preferen adalah tingkat
keuntungan yang disyaratkan oleh pemegang
saham preferen
• Biaya saham preferen adalah dividen saham
preferen tahunan dibagi hasil penjualan saham
preferen.
Dps
Kps =
Pnet
Contoh
• PT damai menegluarkan 10% (deviden tahunan)
saham preferen dengan nilai nominal Rp 10.000
per lembar. Biaya penerbitan dan penjualan
diperkirakan 5%. Berapa biaya saham preferen?
jawab: kp = 1000/9500 = 10,52%
• Perusahaan menjual saham preferen yang
memberikan dividen $10 per thaun. Harga
saham $100, dengan biaya flotation cost $2,5
per lembar saham. Berapa saham preferen?
What the cost of prefern stock?
Pp =$113,10; 10% Q; Par = $100; F =$2
use this Formula
0.1 ($100)
Dps
=
$113.10 - $2.0
Kps =
Pnet
$10
=
$111.10
= 0.090 =9.0%
3. The cost of capital for common equity
Common equity:
a.
b.
Retained Earnings
New Common Stock
Why is there a cost for retained earnings?
• Earnings can be reinvested or paid out as
dividends
• Investor could buy other securities, earn a return
• Thus, there is an opportunity cost if earnings are
eran on alternative investments of equal risk
• They could buy similar stocks its own stock and
company could repurchase its owen stock and
earn Ks. So, Ks is the cost of retained earnings.
3. Biaya laba ditahan
• Biaya modal sendiri yang berasal dari laba
ditahan merupakan tingkat keuntungan yang
disyaratkan oleh investor modal sendiri.
Three ways to determine cost of retained
earnings, ks:
1. CAPM: ks = kRF + (kM – ckRF).
2. DCF : ks = D1/P0 + g
3. Own-Bond-Yield-Plus-Risk
premium :
ks = kd + RP.
Cost of retained earnings
based on the CAPM
• Following information is known:
- KRF = 70%
- MRP = 6%
ks + kRF + (kM – kRF)
ks = 7% (6%) 1,2
ks = 14,2%
The cost of retained earnings
based on the DCF-method
• Use the DCF formula, when the following
information is known
- Do =$4.19
- Po =$50
- g=5%.
The cost of retained earnings
based on the DCF-method
Ks
=
D1 + g = Do (1+g) + g
Po
Po
= $4.19(1.05) + 0.05
$50
=0.088 + 0.05
= 13.8%
Find Ksusing the own-bond-yield-plus-riskpremimum method
(Kd=10%, RP = 4%)
ks = kd + RP
ks = 10.0% + 4.0 = 14.0%
What’s a reasonable final estimate of Ks
Method
CAMP
DCF
Kd + RP
Average
Estimate
14.2%
13.8%
14.0%
14.0%
4. Biaya modal saham biasa baru
• Biaya modal saham biasa baru lebih tinggi dibandingkan biaya
modal laba ditahan, hal ini dikarenakan adanya biaya penerbitan
saham baru (flotation cost)
Ke = D1 + g
Po - F
Keterangan:
Po =Harga saham biasa saat ini
D1 =Dividen yang diharapakan tahun mendatang
Ke = Tingkat keuntungna yang disyaratkan oleh pemodal saham biasa
g =Tingkat pertumbuhan dividen
F =Biaya penerbitan saham
The cost of capital for new common
stock
• Use the DCF formula, when the following
information is known:
– Do = $4.19
– Po = $50
– g = 5%
– Flotation costs = 15%
• Remember, flotation reduce the revenus for
the issuing firm, thus lower Po .
New common stock, F = 15%
ke = Do(1 + g) + g
Po (1 – F)
= $4.19(1.05) + 5.0%
$50(1 – 0.15)
= $4.40 + 5.0% = 15.4%
$42.50
Flotation adjustment:
ke – ks = 15.4% - 13.8% = 1.6%
Add the 1.6% flotation adjustment to
average ks = 14% to find average ke
Ke = ks + flotation adjustment
Ke = 14% + 1.6% = 15.6%
Calculating the WACC
• Calculating the WACC, when a company
finances with 30% debt, 10% preferred stock
and 60% common equity
• The formula for the WACC is
WACC = wd kd (1 – T) + wps kps + wceKs
• First use only the retained earnings
component of common equity (wce)
What’s WACC using only retained earnings for
equity component of WACC1
WACC = wdkd (1 –T) + wpskps + wceks)
= 0.3 (10%)(0.6) + 0.1(9%) = 0.6)14%)
= 1.8% + 0.9% + 8.4% = 11.1%
= cost per $1 financed until retained earnings
used up
• The capital structure for the bias corporation follows. The
company plans to maintain its debt structure in the future.
If the firm has a 6 percent after tax cost of debt, a 13.5
percent cost of preferered stock, and a 19 percent cost of
common stock. What is the firm’s weighted cost of capital?
Capital structure ($000)
Bond
$1,100
Preferred stock
250
Common stock
3,700
$5,050
Bias Corporation – weighted cost of capital
Capital
structure
Weights
Individual
cost
Weighted cost
Bond
$1,100
0,2178
6%
1,31%
Preferred stock
$250
0,0495
13,5%
0,67%
Common stock
$3,700
0,7327
19,0%
13,92%
$5,050
15,9%
Problem
• Target struktur modal perusahaan adalah 30% hutang, 10% saham
preferen, dan 60% modal sendiri (yang seluruhnya berasal dari laba
ditahan). Biaya hutang 12%, biaya saham preferen 12,6%, dan biaya laba
ditahan 16,5%. Pajak 40%. Tentukan WACC?
• Struktur modal untuk perusahaan “Crayon” adalah sbb. Perusahaan
berencana untuk mempertahankan struktur utangnya di amsa mendatang.
Jika perusahaan memiliki 5,5% biaya utang setelah pajak, 13,5% biaya
saham preferen, dan 18% biaya saham biasa. Tentukan WACC?
Obligasi
Saham preferen
$1.083.000
268.000
Saham biasa
3.681.000
Total
5.032.000
Marginal cost of capital
• MCC merupakan biaya untuk memperoleh rupiah tambahan
sebagai modal baru.
• Membuat skedul MCC membutuhkan informasi mengenai
– Biaya modal (WACC) dari penggunaan alternatif modal
sendiri, laba ditahan dan sahaam biasa baru.
– Titik peningkatan MCC (break point): merupakan titik
meningkatnya WACC perusahaan karena semua laba
ditahan telah digunakan dalam pendanaan.
Break point =
laba ditahan
proporsi modal sendiri
Contoh:
• Suatu perusahaan membutuhkan modal baru
sebanyak 500 juta. Struktur modal yang
hendak dicapai adalah 30% hutang, 10% dari
saham preferen dan 60% dari modal sendiri
berupa laba ditahan atau saham biasa baru.
Biaya 12,6%; 16% dan 16,8%. Perusahaan
berharap dapat menahan laba Rp 100 juta.
Buatlah skedul MCC untuk modal baru ini.
Contoh :
• WACC jika menggunkan laba ditahan
= 0,3x8,4% + 0,1x12,6% + 0,6x16% = 13,38%
• WACC jika menggunakan saham biasa baru
= 0,3x8,4% + 0,1x12,6% + 0,6x16,8% = 13,86%
• Break point
= 100 juta/0,6 + 166,67 juta
pada saat dana baru yang digunakan mencapai Rp
166,67 juta, maka perusahaan telah menggunakan
seluruh laba ditahan. Setelah jumlah ini, maka
perusahaan harus menerbitkan saham biasa.
Skedul MCC
WACC
WACC=13,86
MCC
WACC=13,38
Modal baru
166,67 juta
Skedul MCC dengan depresiasi
• Melanjutkan soal sebelumnya, misalkan diketahui bahwa perusahaan
memiliki dana dari depresiasi sebesar 50 juta. Sekdul MCC akan menjadi
WACC= 13,86%
MCC
WACC= 13,38
216,67 juta
50 juta
A
A.
B.
B
Adalah titik dimana seluruh dana depresiasi telah dipakai habis
Adalah titik dimana seluruh laba ditahan telah dipakai habis
Investment Opportunities Schedule/IOS
• IOS adalah suatu grafiuk yang menggambarkan
proyek-proyek yang potensial dalam suatu urutan
berdasarkan ranking IRR proyek tersebut
Contoh:
• Misalkan PT.XX memiliki beberapa kesempatan
investasi yang terbaik (pengembalian tertinggi)
sapai yang terburuk (pengembalian terendah)
seperti table berikut:
• Proyek manakah yang dipilih
SKEDUL KESEMPATAN INVESTASI
Kesempatan
Investasi
Tingkat
Pengembalian
Internal (IRR)
Investasi
Awal
Investasi
Kumulatif
A
15,0%
100.000
100.000
B
14,5%
200.000
300.000
C
14,0%
300.000
600.000
D
13,0%
200.000
800.000
E
12,0%
200.000
1.000.000
F
11,5%
200.000
1.200.000
G
10,0%
100.000
1.300.000
SKEDUL KESEMPATAN INVESTASI
IRR
15%
14% A
13
12
11
10
IRR
IRR
B
IRR
C
IRR
12,1%
D
MCC
IRR
E
F
IRR
G
IOS
0 100.000
600.000 1.000.000
Proyek yang layak dipilih adalah proyek: A, B, C, D, E karena IRR > MCC proyek.
Soal
PT Sentosa sedang menyusun anggaran untuk tahun
mendatang. PT sentosa memperkirakan laba bersih Rp
75juta, dan dividen payout ratio (DPR) adalah 40%. Dana
dari deprisiasi diperkirakan Rp 30 juta. Penghasilan dan
dividen perusahaan diperkirakan tumbuh secara konstan
sebesar 5%/tahun. Dividen saat ini adalah Rp 90, dan
harga pasar saham saat ini Rp 859. bunga kredit baru dari
bank adalah 14%. Biaya emisi saham baru 20%. Struktur
modal yang optimal adalah 60% modal senidri dan 40%
hutang. Pajak 40% PT Sentosa memiliki kesempatan
investasi proyek yang bersifat independen, sbb:
Proyek
Biaya
IRR
A
150 JUTA
17%
B
200 JUTA
14%
C
150 JUTA
16%
D
120 JUTA
15%
Buatlah anggaran modal yang optimal
JAWAB
Laba ditahan = 75 juta-40% (75juta)= 45juta
Biaya laba ditahan : ks = D1/Po + g
= 90(1+0,05) +0,05 =18,75%
859
Biasa saham biasa baru = 90 (1 + 0,05) + 0,05 = 18,75%
859 (1-0,2)
WACC1 = 12,96%
WACC2 = 14,61% (jika menggunakan saham biasa baru)
Breka point = 45/0,6 = 75 juta
Karena ada depresiasi 30 juta, maka break point = 105 juta
%
17%
IRR
A
IRR
C
IRR
14,61%
MCC
IRR
12,96%
D
IOS
B
100105
150
200
300
400
Proyek A, C dan D diterima. Anggaran modal optimal= 420 juta
500
600
SOAL
1. PT ABC ingin melakukan ekspansi dalam
situasi yang cukup sulit seperti sekarang ini.
Dari perhitungan biaya modal rata-rata
diketahui bahwa semakin tinggi kebutuhan
dana, maka akan meningkatkan cost of capital.
Sumber dana berasal dari modal sendiri
sebesar 40%, pinjaman bank 35% dan 25%
berasal dari penerbitan obligasi. Berikut ini
adalah table cost of capital untuk masingmasing interval kebutuhan dana.
Cost of capital
Interval kebutuhan dan (miliyar RP)
Cost of capital
0-20
13,0%
20-45
13,5%
45-75
15,0%
75-110
16,5%
110-160
17,5%
>160
18,5
Setelah dilakukan studi kelayakan, diperoleh informasi bahwa
tingkat keuntungan dari 6 proyek tersebut adalah:
Proyek
IRR
Investasi awal (miliyar RP)
Pengalengan sayur
15,5
20
Palm oil
13,5
50
Rumah makan
19,0
15
Hotel
16,5
30
Pabrik sepatu
14,0
35
Bisnis eceran
18,0
20
Proyek manakah yang layak dilaksanakan? Dan berapa
anggaran modal yang optimal?
2. PT “Angkasa” memiliki struktur modal sbb:
Hutang
25%
Saham preferen
15%
Saham biasa
60%
Total
100%
Perusahaan mengharapkan kenutungan bersih 16.000.000, -tahun ini. DPR
25%, pajak 40%, dan investor mengharapkan pendapatan dan individen
tumbuh 9% dimasa mendatang. Tahun lalu perusahaan membayar dividen
3.600,-(Do=3600), dan saat ini harga saham 60.000,- per lembar. Suku bunga
bebas risiko adalah 11%, dan suatu saham rata-rata memberikan rate of
return yang diharapkan sebesr 14%. Beta saham PT Angkasa adalah 1,5.
saham baru memiliki flotation cost 10%
Saham preferen dapat dijual ke publik dengan harga 100.000,- per lembar,
dengan dividen 11.000,-. Flotation cost 5.000,- per lembar.
Hutang dapat dijual dengan membayar bunga sebesar 12%
Pertanyaan
1. Hitung biaya modal dari: hutang, saham preferen, laba
ditahn, dan saham biasa baru
2. Tentukan Retained Earning Break Point
3. Tentukan WACC dengan menggunakan laba ditahan, dan
WACC dengan menggunakan saham biasa baru.
4. Gambarkan skedul MCC
5. Misalkan PT Angkasa meramalkan bahwa biaya depresiasi
untuk periode yang direncanakan adalah 10.000.000,-.
Bagaimana ini mempengaruhi skedul MCC?