Econ 101H Michael K. Salemi Class 27: Money, Prices and the Financial System 1. Financial intermediaries are firms, such as banks, that channel funds from savers to investor s and other borrowers. a. Direct and Indirect Finance i. Some financial transactions occur directly--without the intervention of financial firms. ii. Most financial transactions involve a financial intermediary such as a commercial bank, thrift institution, or investment bank. iii. The following flow chart compares direct and indirect finance. b. Financial intermediaries “repackage” IOUs. Many lenders prefer owning repackaged to owning IOUs of specific borrowers. i. Lenders prefer to hold a diversified portfolio of IOUs. ii. Borrowers and lenders have different time horizons. iii. Lenders may be more willing to lend if they know that they can quickly and without loss re-covert the IOUs that they own to cash. c. Commercial banks are financial intermediaries that issue deposit liabilities which are part of the money supply. i. A balance sheet is a list of the assets, liabilities and net worth of a firm or individual. ii. Balance sheets balance by construction because “net worth” is defined to be the value of the firm’s assets minus the value of its liabilities. Balance Sheet Assets iii. Liabilities Net Worth The following T-account depicts the consolidated balance sheet of commercial banks in the United States at the end of December, 2005, a time when both the US and world economies were in the midst of an expansion. Consolidated Balance Sheet of Commercial Banks in the United States December 2005 Billions of Dollars o o o 2. Assets Treasury and Agency Securities Other Securities Commercial and Industrial Loans Real Estate Loans Consumer Loans Security Loans Other Loans Interbank Loans Cash Assets Other Assets 1,134 907 1,045 2,904 705 262 525 278 311 636 Total Assets 8707 Liabilities Transaction Deposits Large Time Deposits Other Non-transaction Deposits Borrowings from US Banks Borrowing from Others Other Liabilities 656 1,418 3,657 361 1,360 568 Total Liabilities 8,020 Net Worth 687 From what sources does the bank get the funds that it uses to acquire its assets? What types of assets do banks hold? How well capitalized were banks in December, 2005? What is money and what is the connection between the money supply in the United States and Financial Intermediaries? a. Money, in a modern economy, is properly viewed as a social contract. That is, the money supply in an economy is properly thought of as money if and only if the members of that economy willingly exchange goods and services for that money. b. Operational Definitions of Money i. M1, the narrowest definition of money, equals currency held by the public plus travelers checks of non-bank issuers plus demand deposits at commercial banks plus other checkable deposits. ii. M2, a less narrow definition of money and the one favored by economists when they study the relationship between the quantity of money and economic behavior, equals M1 plus (1) savings deposits including money market deposit accounts plus (2) small-denomination time deposits at depository institutions 2 (except for IRA and Keogh balances) plus (3) balances in retail money market deposit accounts (except for IRA and Keogh balances). iii. c. M3, the broadest definition of money, equals M2 plus (1) balances in institutional money market mutual funds plus (2) large-denomination time deposits plus (3) large repurchase agreements of depository institutions on US government and federal agency securities plus (4) Eurodollars held by US addressees. The following table provides data on the quantity of money in the US in December 2005. Money Stock Measures for the U.S. December 2005 Billions of Dollars Fraction of 2005:IV GDP (12,901 B) Components of M1 Currency Travelers Checks Demand Deposits Other Checkable Deposits M1 M2 M3 d. 3. 724 7 321 317 1,369 6,676 10,154 0.11 0.53 0.79 Commercial banks create money when they make loans to customers. Cash XYZ Bank-Cash Deposit Change in Assets Change in Liabilities $1,000 Deposits $1,000 Loans XYZ Bank-New Lending Change in Assets Change in Liabilities $9,000 Deposits $9,000 Cash Loans XYZ Bank-Total Picture Change in Assets Change in Liabilities $1,000 Deposits $10,000 $9,000 What is a central bank and what does it do? a. A central bank is a bank that accepts deposits from commercial banks, oversees commercial bank operations, and is charged with controlling the money supply of a nation. The Federal Reserve is the Central Bank of the United States. 3 b. c. A central bank requires commercial banks to hold reserves for each dollar of deposits it accepts (10 percent in the United States). Those reserves can be held in the form of cash or deposits at the central bank. The balance sheet of the Federal Reserve reflects important facts about money and the history of money in the United States. Balance Sheet of the Federal Reserve December 28, 2005 Billions of Dollars c. Assets Gold Certificates Special Drawing Rights Coin US Treasury Securities Federal Agency Securities Repurchase Agreements Loans Items in the Process of Collection Bank Premises Other Assets 11.0 2.2 0.7 744.2 0.0 45.3 0.1 7.8 1.8 37.3 Total Assets 850.4 Liabilities Federal Reserve Notes Reverse Repurchase Agreements Depository Institution Deposits US Treasury Deposits Foreign Official Deposits Other Deposits Deferred Availability of Cash Items Other Liabilities Total Liabilities Net Worth 759.2 30.4 17.1 4.2 0.09 0.3 6.7 4.4 822.4 28.0 Central banks can increase and decrease the supply of money by buying and selling government bonds in the open market. Federal Reserve Change in Assets Change in Liabilities 1 Government Bonds $1B Fed Check $1B 3 Net Government Bonds + $1B Fed Check XYZ Deposit - $1B + $1B XYZ Deposit + $1B Bond Dealer Change in Liabilities Change in Assets 1 Government Bonds -$1B Fed Check + $1B 2 Fed Check Deposit in XYZ Bank - $1B + $1B Net Government Bonds Bank Deposit - $1B + $1B XYZ Commercial Bank Change in Assets Change in Liabilities 2 Fed Check + $1B Dealer Deposit + $1B 3 Fed Check Deposit at Fed - $1B + $1B Net Deposit at Fed + $1B Dealer Deposit + $1B The bottom line is that an open market purchase of government bonds increases the bank reserves of commercial banks and makes additional lending possible. 4 d. 4. Through open market operations, a central bank is able to control short term interest rates Federal Reserve Policy a. By law, the Federal Reserve is required to maintain price stability and promote full employment of resources. b. The Fed is responsible for managing growth in the US money supply. i. ii. iii. When the Fed grows the money supply at an appropriate rate, it helps the economy grow by providing the new dollars necessary to support the transactions associated with growth. When the Fed allows the money supply to grow too rapidly, inflation results and the value of money decreases. The following table illustrates that the Fed has done a better job of controlling the money supply in some periods and a worse job in others. Period 1955-65 1965-75 1975-85 1985-95 1995-2005 Excessive Money Growth Results in Inflation Ten Year Growth Rates in Annual Terms Money Base Growth Real GDP Growth Inflation 3.0 3.9 1.8 6.8 2.9 5.5 8.1 3.4 6.1 8.0 2.8 2.8 6.0 3.3 2.1 5 c. The following diagram provides evidence for Milton Friedman’s famous claim that inflation is “always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” From Dwyer, Gerald and R. W. Hafer, “Are Money Growth and Inflation Still Related?” Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, Second Quarter, 1999 d. During the Great Recession, the normal relationship between money growth and inflation broke down because commercial banks were unwilling to lend. i. Normally, banks hold very small amounts of excess reserves because they respond to increases in their reserves by increasing loans to private sector borrowers. ii. During the Financial Market Crisis, banks perceived that loans were risky. When the Fed increased banking system reserves (through open market bond purchases) banks chose to hold excess reserves. iii. In order to provide banks additional revenue and lower the probability of bank failures, the Fed began paying interest on reserve balances which also gave banks an incentive to hold excess reserves. 6