Chapter 15 Multinationals and Migration
b. Migration
Link to syllabus
Video of a panel discussion at UM-Ford School, March 2011
featuring George Borjas and Gordon Hanson.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEpyzj7bOdQ
Migration
Figure 15.4 page 367 Labor market effects of migration
Figure 15.4 page 367 Labor market effects of migration
Sn + Smig
= ~0.1% of US GDP
b = ½ (% change native wage) x (% change in employ) x (labor’s share of national income
= 0.5*0.03*0.1*0.7 = 0.1%
Were Trade and Factor Mobility Substitutes in History?Williamson et al.
William J. Collins, Kevin H. O'Rourke, Jeffrey Williamson
NBER Working Paper No.w6059* Issued in June 1997
Trade theorists have come to understand that their theory is ambiguous
on the question: Are trade and factor flows substitutes? While this
sounds like an open invitation for empirical research, hardly any serious
econometric work has appeared in the literature. This paper uses
history to fill the gap. It treats the experience of the Atlantic economy
between 1870 and 1940 as panel data with almost seven hundred
observations. When shorter run business cycles and long swings' are
extracted from the panel data, substitutability is soundly rejected. When
secular relationships are extracted over longer time periods and across
trading partners, once again substitutability is soundly rejected. Finally,
the paper explores immigration policy and finds that policy makers neve
behaved as if they viewed trade and immigration as substitutes.
*Published: Migration: The Controversies and the Evidence, Faini, R., J. D
Zimmerman, eds., Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999.
Summary: Pugel, p. 368
Countries with Largest Immigrant Stock
Source: UN International Migration Wall Chart, 2006. http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/2006Migration_Chart/Mig
Countries with highest percentage of immigrants, in
total population
Source: UN International Migration Wall Chart, 2006. http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/2006Migration_Chart/Migration2006.pdf
Figure 15.2 p. 364. Gross Immigration Rates into
the US and Canada
Figure 15.3 p. 365. Net Immigration Rates into the EU
U.S.: Immigrants as % of
Total Population
US Immigration Data, 2000 (in 1,000s). (Bureau of Census)
Total
Median
Populatio Family Full Time Inc.
in USA
Income M Female
250,314
51 38 27
US-Born
Foreign Born: All 31,108
By country of birth:
Argentin
125
Brazil
212
Colombia
510
Cuba
873
Jamaica
554
Mexico
9,177
Nigeria
Australia
Canada
Germany
Ireland
Italy
Poland
Russia
135
61
821
707
156
473
467
340
42
30 25
55
41
40
41
45
31
41
32
30
31
32
21
31
25
22
25
29
17
53
77
62
57
65
54
51
46
37
61
52
48
50
44
39
41
31
36
35
29
35
29
26
31
Total Median
Popul. Family
in USA Income
Full Time Inc.
M
F
China
India
Korea
Pakistan
Philippi.
Viet Nam
1,519
1,023
864
223
1,369
988
57
75
47
50
66
47
44
57
39
38
36
31
33
37
28
27
32
24
Egypt
Iran
Iraq
Israel
Jordan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Saudi A.
Syria
Turkey
Yemen
113
283
90
110
47
20
106
21
55
78
19
58
65
46
63
46
45
55
31
49
52
32
44
52
35
51
39
42
47
37
41
42
26
35
36
26
37
31
30
31
28
27
32
24
Recent Immigrants Are Younger
(2000 Census)
Gender
US-Born
Male
Female
Total
Median
Age
34.0
36.3
35.2
All Foreign-Born
Male
Female
Total
37.2
39.9
38.6
Recent Immigrants
(< 3 Years USA)
Male
Female
Total
24.5
25.6
25.0
Population
USA-Native Born
250,314,015
Median
Age
35
USA-Foreign Born
From: (Place of birth)
Canada
31,107,890
38
820,770
49
China & Taiwan
India
Korea
Philippines
Viet Nam
1,518,650
1,022,550
864,125
1,369,070
988,175
41
35
38
43
37
706,705
466,740
677,750
473,340
55
47
50
60
Germany
Poland
U.K.
Italy
US Population,
2000 Census
Colombia
Cuba
Ecuador
El Salvador
Guatemala
Haiti
Honduras
Jamaica
Mexico
Nicaragua
Egypt
Iran
Iraq
Israel
Lebanon
509,870
872,715
298,625
817,335
480,665
419,315
282,850
553,825
9,177,485
220,335
113,395
283,225
89,890
109,720
105,910
USA-Native Born
USA-Foreign Born
LFPR
64.4
60.7
Males Females
70.7
58.6
71.0
50.5
Europe
Asia
Latin America
Africa
54.2
62.8
61.2
71.1
65.2
72.3
71.5
79.0
45.2
54.2
50.0
61.2
Iran
Iraq
Israel
Jordan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Mexico
China & Taiwan
63.2
58.7
66.4
62.5
56.6
61.1
60.1
61.5
74.9
71.9
79.2
80.1
65.6
75.7
72.4
69.2
49.5
42.2
50.1
35.0
40.9
42.1
44.6
54.7
(1,000,000s)
Undocumented OIS
Unauthorized
Population
Unauthorized Mexicans
March? CPS
1990
1991
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
31.1
31.5
33.0
33.5
34.3
35.7
37.5
38.1
38.0
38.5
40.0
3.5
4.0
4.8
5.1
5.6
5.9
6.1
6.5
7.0
Undocumented
8.4
9.3
9.4
9.7
10.4
11.1
11.3
12.0
11.6
11.1
11.2
8.5
4.7
10.5
11.3
11.8
11.6
10.8
10.8
6.0
6.6
7.0
7.0
6.7
6.6
Sources: Passel, CPS, Office Immigration Statistics
Immigrant Unauthorized
Population Population
Authorized and Unauthorized FBP, 2000, 2011
Unauthorized FBP
FBP-Population Estimated Population
(2000 Census)
2000
2011
All
Mexico
El Salvador
Guatem
Honduras
China
Philippines
India
Korea
Ecuador
Vietnam
31,107
8,460
11,510
9,178
817
481
283
1,519
1,369
1,023
864
299
988
4,680
430
290
160
190
200
120
180
110
160
6,800
660
520
380
280
270
240
230
210
170
Undocumented Foreigners in the US, 2000 (1,000s)
Total
Population
Unauthorized
Immigrant
Population
Unauthorized as Percent
of Resident Population
Native Born
250,314
Foreign Born
Brazil
El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
Mexico
31,107
212
817
480
283
9,177
8,460
100
430
290
160
4,680
27
47
53
60
57
51
1,519
1,023
864
1,369
190
120
180
200
13
12
21
15
China (+Taiwan)
India
Korea
Philippines
Source: Homeland Security
Unauthorized, by Employment Status
Randy Capp et al. Migration Policy Institute “A Demographic, Socioeconmic, and Health Coverage
Profile of Unauthorized Immigrants in the United States
Unauthorized, by Income Levels
Unauthorized, by Sector of Employment
Health Insurance Coverage of Children
Estimated percent of population who
are unauthorized immigrants, CA
1 5
10 15
New York Times
Nov. 23, 2014
Estimated percent of population who
are unauthorized immigrants: Los Angeles [NYT: 11/23/14]
1
5
10
15
Age-Earnings Profile ~1970
Why peak at age ~45-50?
Older people are less productive physically, and their education & skills obsolete.
Medical costs are higher for older people, so firms pay them less.
Some wealthier older people are willing to retire early, due to sufficient savings.
Source: Borjas Labor Economics 3rd ed.
Age-Earnings Profile, ~1970. Immigrants & Native-Born
Immigrants
Natives
Mean income disguises different life time behaviors for immigrants and native born
Immigrants’ incomes may peak later
More immigrants work longer, earn more in their later years.
Also, it is argued that immigrants’ curve has shifted downwards since then.
Source: Borjas Labor Economics 3rd ed.
Theoretical Model of Immigrants’ Income
Immigrants “work harder,”
and have less accumulated
family wealth
+10
Income of
immigrants
Minus
Years in the US
0
0
Income of
Similarly -10
aged and
educated
native born-20
10
20
30
Overall Average difference
(percent)
-30
Most important issue is the speed with
which immigrants find decent jobs
Ratio of Wages of Recent Immigrants to National Average,
1980 and 2000.
Arabs, other MENA,
India & China doing
better;
Mexicans doing worse
Numerical dominance of
Mexican immigrants
explains that the skill level
of average immigrant
is declining.
Source: Census data from IPUMS
Summary of U.S. Immigration Policy (I)
US is a country of immigrants – the colonists were immigrants
Statue of Liberty (1876-1886): “Give me your tired, your poor, your
huddled masses yearning to breathe free”
Nevertheless, Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882
Gentleman’s agreement against Japanese, 1908. No discrimination
against Filipinos. [Why so few from India?]
Quotas by national origin, 1924. Restrictions of Europeans.
Repatriation of 400,000 Mexicans/Mexican-Americans, 1930s,
reversing a long period of laissez faire regarding farm workers
Minimal openings to European Jews and others fleeing Hitler
US Immigration Policy, (II)
•McCarran Act of 1952: immigration quotas by national origins,
preferences.
•1950s Bracero program: agricultural workers (predominantly Mexican)
•1960s immigration “by points”: family reunification, asylum seekers
from Taiwan, Cuba, Viet Nam, requests by employers.
•But also, large numbers of illegal immigrants, noticeable after 1970.
•1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act. Penalties/amnesty
•President George W. Bush was unsuccessful at a major reform; perhaps
would have sought a replay of the 1986 IRCA. Obama announced
temporary amnesty for people who arrived in US as children.
Current Immigration Issues in US (Borjas/Hanson)
1. Number
2. Criteria: skill, family links, political and religious refugees.
Increased need for talented foreigners (including grad students).
3. Illegal immigration:
Amnesty (IRCA), or expulsion.
Enforcement - wall holding out illegals from Mexico and Central
America; question of penalties to employers, local police and
‘random’ checks. 9/11 and national security. This debate has recently
been fought on a proxy basis about Drivers Licenses and Tuition for
undocumented people.
Hanson wants US to expand sale of visas at a market rate ($5,000?).
Chart II.19 Inflows of Permanent Settlers into US, 1985-1995
OECD: Trends in International Migrations
Unauthorized Immigrants, 2000
Source: US Statistical Abstract, 2004
Educational Attainment
HighSchool_or_higher Bachelor's or higher
US-Natives
83
25
Foreign Born
62
24
Africa
86
43
Asia
79
43
Europe
77
29
Latin America
44
10
Cuba
59
19
Dominican Repub.
48
9
Mexico
30
4
76
48
China (& Taiwan)
India
88
69
Philippines
87
45
Lebanon
78
37
Jordan
81
33
Fraction Above High School
Educational Levels of Foreign Born Populations, 2000
Foreign Born as Percentage of Total Population
Educational Levels of Immigrants,
Many countries, 2000
90
HS% - All Immigrants
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
FBP\Total Pop
60
70
80
90
Europe and Canada
International Immigration (from Europe), 1821-1915
Source: Kenwood and Lougheed
Effect of Migration on Wage Differentials
In 1870, real wages in New World were three times that of Europe, while
in 1913 the differential was two. Without migration, gap would have risen.
Source: Feenstra and Taylor, International Trade
Canada: Immigration and Emigration, 1851-1971
Canada:
Points
System
Source: Green,
“The Goals of
Canadian Immigra
Policy: A Historica
Perspective,” CJU
Summer 2004
Figure 2.1 EU Population Growth 1960-2050. Page 20
Source: different text
Stocks of Foreign Born in some OECD Countries
Foreign Born
% of Total
Australia 4,750
24
Austria
923
11
Belgium
1,185
11
Canada
5,670
18
Denmark
343
6
France
5,862
10
Germany 11,000
13
Ireland
420
11
Foreign Born
% of Total
Italy
1,447
3
Netherlands1,800
11
New Zealand 763
11
Norway
350
11
Spain
2,177
5
Sweden
1,100
12
Switzerland 1,777
23
UK
5,300
9
USA
37,000
13
Source: OECD International Migration Outlook 2006
Source Countries for Foreign Born
Four biggest sources:
Australia: U.K., New Zealand, Italy, China
Austria: Turkey, Germany, former Yugoslavia, Poland
Belgium: France, Morocco, Italy, Netherlands
Canada: U.K., China, Italy, India
Denmark: Turkey, Germany, Iran, Yugoslavia
France: Portugal, Morocco, Algeria, Turkey
Germany: Turkey, Italy, Yugoslavia, Greece
Ireland: U.K., U.S. Nigeria, Germany
Netherlands: Turkey, Suriname, Morocco, Indonesia
Sweden: Finland, Yugoslavia, Iraq, Iran
Switzerland: Italy, Yugoslavia, Portugal, Germany
U.K.: Ireland, India, US. South Africa
U.S.: Mexico, China, Philippines, India
Source: OECD International Migration Outlook 2006
Britain to Restrict Workers From Bulgaria and Romania
October 25, 2006
By SARAH LYALL
LONDON, Oct. 24 — Britain plans to severely restrict the ability
of people from Bulgaria and Romania to work here after those
two countries join the European Union in January, the
government said Tuesday.
The new policy represents an enormous change for Britain,
which has been one of Europe’s main champions of expansion
and openness in the European job market… After the new
members were admitted to the European Union in 2004, Britain
was shocked by the number of people from Eastern European
countries, particularly Poland, who poured across the borders,
looking for jobs.
The government had predicted that no more than 13,000
arrivals would come each year, but in the past two years, about
500,000 Eastern Europeans have registered as workers here, the
African Slavery Slides
African Slavery
Destination of African Slaves in New World
Map of Major
Shipments of
African Slaves
Slave Populations,
1750 and 1830
Source: Maddison
Twentieth Century Slavery
China and India
Chinese in South East Asia, ~1965
S.E.Asia immigration
Source: Huff and Caggiano Journal Economic History, March 2007
Chinese and Indian Overseas, ~1925
Source: W.A. Lewis, Growth and Fluctuations
India: Emigration and Returned Migrants, to 1937
Source: Kingsley Davis
Emigration from India, by Region
Source: Kingsley Davis
Distribution of East Indians, 1940
Source: Kingsley Davis
Table 1.10 Maghrebian, Chinese etc. Residing in
Selected OECD Countries 1999.
OECD: Trends in International Migrations
Middle East Labor Flows
Major Points:
Oil Exporters in Arabia, and Israel had imported workers
(but not Iran nor Iraq. Not much in Libya).
Workers had come from Palestine, Egypt, Lebanon, etc.
For political reasons, trend now is to import Asians
Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia, Turkey send people to west Europe
MidEast
Labor Importers: the GCC
1975
Total
NonPop.Nationals
%
1994
Total
NonPop. Nationals
%-
Bahrain
267
Kuwait 1,027
Oman
846
Qatar
180
Saudi Ar. 7,334
UAE
551
58
555
136
127
1,398
351
22
54
16
71
19
64
550
1,620
2,049
532
18,180
2,150
205
949
538
403
5,127
1,522
37
59
26
76
28
71
Total
2,625
26
25,082
8,744
35
10,204
Arab Labor Exporters to GCC (thousands and %)
1975
1997
Total
In % in
pop. GCC GCC
Total
pop.
Egypt
36,950
Jordan
1,800
Lebanon
3,090
Oman
913
Sudan
16,050
Syria
7,410
Tunisia
5,700
Yemen, Rep.
Y.A.R.
5,037
YPDR
1,660
620
503
53
57
65
105
52
608
123
2
28
2
6
0
1
1
12
7
In % in
GCC GCC
64,824 1,635
4,322
410
32,594
250
16,138
265
15,857
500
-
3
9
1
2
3
-
Kuwait:
Population
Absolute and Relative size of
the Foreign Born Population
Median Incomes by Nativity
Mean Hours and Wages, by Nativity and Years Residence in US
US Total
Yearly Hours
Wages
Males
Males
Females
1,964
1,620
All Foreign Born
1,939
Arab-US born
Arab-Foreign Born
Females
US Total
19.8
15.1
1,613
All Foreign Born
17.8
14.8
1,957
1,580
Arab-US born
22.8
17.2
2,064
1,536
Arab-Foreign Born
22.8
15.9
Foreign Born, by years in US:
Foreign Born, by years in US:
1-2
1-2
Non-Arab
1,636
1,330
Non-Arab
14.8
12.6
Arabs
1,550
1,113
Arabs
15.0
12.4
3-6
3-6
Non-Arab
1,876
1,530
Non-Arab
15.3
12.9
Arabs
1,915
1,437
Arabs
17.0
11.7
7-15
7-15
Non-Arab
1,921
1,599
Non-Arab
16.5
14.4
Arabs
2,105
1,531
Arabs
21.0
17.2
16-30
16-30
Non-Arab
2,019
1,708
Non-Arab
19.4
15.9
Arabs
2,235
1,678
Arabs
24.8
16.5
Mean Years of Education
Refugees and Asylum Seekers
Refugees, 1999
Source: UNHCR www.unhcr.ch
Refugees, Reported in UN Wall Chart
Country or area
Total Population
(thousands)
2005
Migrant
stock
Number of
refugees a/
Number
(thousands) (thousands)
2005
Jordan
5,703 2,225
Occupied Palestinian Territory
3,702 1,680
Iran (Islamic Republic of) 69,515 1,959
Pakistan
157,935 3,254
Germany
82,689 10,144
Middle Africa
109,641 1,791
United Republic of Tanzania38,329
792
Syrian Arab Republic
19,043
985
United States of America 298,213 38,355
Lebanon
3,577
657
China g/
1,315,844
596
United Kingdom
59,668 5,408
Serbia and Montenegro
10,503
512
Chad
9,749
437
Uganda
28,816
518
Saudi Arabia
24,573 6,361
Kenya
34,256
345
Armenia
3,016
235
Dem. Rep. of the Congo
57,549
539
Zambia
11,668
275
Algeria
32,854
242
India
1,103,371 5,700
South-eastern Asia
555,815 5,664
Sudan
36,233
639
Canada
32,268 6,106
France
60,496 6,471
Guinea
9,402
406
Netherlands
16,299 1,638
Total Population
Ratio: Refugees to Population
Refugees
2004
1,778
1,635
1,046
961
877
639
602
437
421
401
299
289
277
260
250
241
240
235
199
174
169
163
149
142
141
140
139
127
Occupied Palestinian Territory
3,702 1,635
Jordan
5,703 1,778
Lebanon
3,577 401
Armenia
3,016 235
Chad
9,749 260
Serbia and Montenegro 10,503 277
Syrian Arab Republic
19,043 437
Djibouti
793
18
Congo
3,999
69
United Republic of Tanzania
38,329 602
Iran (Islamic Republic of) 69,515 1,046
Zambia
11,668 174
Guinea
9,402 139
Denmark
5,431
65
Sierra Leone
5,525
65
Germany
82,689 877
Gabon
1,384
14
Saudi Arabia
24,573 241
Norway
4,620
44
Uganda
28,816 250
Sweden
9,041
73
Netherlands
16,299 127
Namibia
2,031
15
Kenya
34,256 240
Switzerland
7,252
48
Burundi
7,548
49
Central African Republic 4,038
25
Pakistan
157,935 961
44
31
11
8
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Inflows of Asylum
Seekers, 2000
OECD: Trends in
International Migrations
Top LDCs, Remittance/cap
Source: OECD International Migration Outlook 2006
Top LDCs, Remittance/GDP
Source: OECD International Migration Outlook 2006
Top LDCs Amount Remittance
Source: OECD International Migration Outlook 2006
Migration-Africa
Northern, and Southern Africa
Migration: Western Africa
Migration: Easter and S.E. Asia
Migration: Western Asia
Migration: South-central Asia
Migration: Eastern and Northern Europe
Northern and Southern Europe
Migration: Western Europe, Oceania
Migration: Central America and Caribe
Central America
Migration: the Americas
Stocks of Foreign Born:
% of Population
US Immigration Rates, 1901-2000
US Native and foreign born, 1980-2000
Example 8.1 Immigration into the U.S.. Page 265
1800s
1900s
The “growth to” column represents an estimate of what the present
Day population of that group would be.
Thompson text
Immigration Data
Source: NYT June 18, 2006
Example 8.3 Immigrants Currently in the US, Legal
and Otherwise. Page 275
Thompson text
Stocks of foreign born all
Stocks of foreign born I
Source: OECD International Migration Outlook 2006
Stocks of foreign born II
Source: OECD International Migration Outlook 2006
Canada: Population Growth by Decade 1851-1971
Source: ?
2000
Census
US-Born
Total
Populat.
Median
Famil Full Time Incom
Total Median
Pop’n. Famil Full Time In
in USA
Incom Male Female
in USA Incom
250,314
Foreign BornAll
31,108
By country of birth:
Argentina
125
Brazil
212
Colombia
510
Cuba
873
Jamaica
554
Mexico
9,177
51
M Female
38 27
42
30 25
55
41
40
41
45
31
41
32
30
31
32
21
31
25
22
25
29
17
Nigeria
135
53
37 31
Australia
Canada
Germany
Ireland
Italy
Poland
Russia
61
821
707
156
473
467
340
77
62
57
65
54
51
46
61
52
48
50
44
39
41
36
35
29
35
29
26
31
China
1,519
57
44
33
India
Korea
Pakistan
Philippines
Viet Nam
1,023
864
223
1,369
988
75
47
50
66
47
57
39
38
36
31
37
28
27
32
24
113
283
90
110
47
20
106
21
55
78
19
58
65
46
63
46
45
55
31
49
52
32
44
52
35
51
39
42
47
37
41
42
26
35
36
26
37
31
30
31
28
27
32
24
Egypt
Iran
Iraq
Israel
Jordan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Saudi Arabia
Syria
Turkey
Yemen
Example 8.8 Immigrant Income. Page 285
Source: Seems to be from Thompson International Economics