Norges Bank
Executive Board meeting
21 September 2005
1
Norges Bank
Prices for crude oil and gasoline in the US
Crude oil: USD per barrel; Gasoline: cents per gallon
Daily figures. Jan 05 – Sept 05
300
80
Spot
250
70
Crude oil (right-hand scale)
1-Pos
(October)
200
60
150
50
3-Pos
(December)
100
Jan
40
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Source: EcoWin/ NYMEX
2
Norges Bank
USA Consumer Sentiment Index,
Monthly figures
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
70
2000
Mid-month
16/9
80
70
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: EcoWin / University of Michigan
3
Norges Bank
Developments in 10-year government
bond yields and oil prices
Per cent and USD per barrel
80
5.0
Crude oil (right-hand
scale)
4.5
4.0
US
70
60
Norway
50
3.5
Germany
3.0
Jan
40
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank
4
Norges Bank
CPI/HICP
in the US, the euro area, Germany, the UK and Japan.
Percentage change on same month previous year
4
3
4
Euro area
3
US
2
2
1
1
Germany
UK
0
0
Japan
-1
-1
-2
1999
-2
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: EcoWin / National statistics
5
Norges Bank
Consumer prices in the Nordic countries
Percentage rise on same month previous year
4
4
Sweden
(UND1X)
3
3
Denmark*
Sweden
(UND1X excl. energy)
2
2
Finland*
1
1
Norway
(CPI-ATE)
0
0
* CPI excl. energy, food, alcohol and tobacco
-1
2002
-1
2003
2004
2005
Source: EcoWin / National statistics
6
Norges Bank
Interest rate expectations
for the US, the euro area, the UK and Sweden
5
5
4
UK
4
3
Sweden
3
2
1
Euro area
US
2
20 Sept
1
9 Aug
0
0
jun 03 des 03 jun 04 des 04 jun 05 des 05 jun 06 des 06
Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank
7
Norges Bank
Oil price Brent Blend and futures prices.
Daily figures, USD per barrel. Jan 02 – Sept 05
70
70
19 Sept
60
60
24 Jun (IR 2/05)
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
2002
10
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank
8
Norges Bank
Oil futures prices
USD per barrel light crude. Daily figures. Jan 01 – Sept 05
80
80
70
70
60
60
Delivery in 1 month
50
50
40
40
30
30
Delivery in 6-7 years
20
20
10
2001
10
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: EcoWin/ NYMEX
9
Norges Bank
CPI-ATE
Total and broken down into imported and domestically produced
goods and services1). Historical price inflation and projections
IR 2/05 (broken line). 12-month rise. Per cent
3
2
3
Goods and services produced in Norway (0.7)
2
1
1
0
0
CPI-ATE
-1
-1
-2
-2
Imported consumer goods (0.3)
-3
-3
-4
1) Norges
Bank's projections
-5
Dec 03
-4
-5
Apr 04
Aug 04
Dec 04
Apr 05
Aug 05
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
10
Norges Bank
Unemployed
Number of unemployed (LFS), number of registered unemployed and
persons on labour market programmes. In thousands. Seasonally adjusted
200
200
Registered unemployed
and persons on labour
market programmes
175
150
175
150
125
125
100
100
LFS unemployment
75
75
Registered
unemployed
50
25
0
1989
50
25
0
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
Sources: Statistics Norway, the Directorate of Labour and Norges Bank
11
Norges Bank
Statistics Norway's wage index
Growth on same quarter previous year. Per cent
8
8
Retail trade
6
6
Construction
industry
Manufacturing
4
4
2
0
1999
Transport and
communications
2
Commercial services
and property
management
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: Statistics Norway
12
Norges Bank
Consumer confidence indicator
Unadjusted figures
45
45
Total
Own financial situation
Norwegian economy
30
30
15
15
0
0
-15
-15
-30
1999
-30
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Sources: TNS Gallup and Norges Bank
13
Norges Bank
Service consumption and airline passengers
4-quarter growth. Per cent
6
30
Service consumption
excluding shelter services
(left-hand scale)
4
20
2
10
Airline passengers
international departures
(right-hand scale)
0
-2
2000
0
-10
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Sources: Statistics Norway, Avinor and Norges Bank
14
Norges Bank
Private consumption and enterprise sector
investment in mainland Norway
Growth on same quarter previous year. Per cent
20
20
Investment
10
10
0
0
Consumption
-10
2000
-10
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: Statistics Norway
15
Norges Bank
Housing prices from real estate business
12-month rise. Monthly figures. Per cent
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
1998
-10
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Sources: Associations of Norwegian real estate agents (NEF, EFF) and Norges Bank
16
Norges Bank
Estimated and actual investment
in petroleum activities
In billions of NOK
100
100
2005
90
90
80
80
2006
2004
70
70
60
2003
60
50
2002
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
May
Aug
Previous year
Nov
Feb
May
Aug
Same year
Nov
Feb
Final figures
Source: Statistics Norway
17
Norges Bank
Total debt (C3) and domestic credit (C2)
Per cent. 12-month growth
30
30
25
25
Total debt non-financial
enterprises mainland Norway
(C3)
20
15
20
Households (C2)
10
Domestic credit to nonfinancial enterprises (C2)
5
0
-5
2000
15
10
5
0
-5
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
18
Norges Bank
3-month interest rate differential and
import-weighted exchange rate (I-44)
5
A fall in value denotes a depreciating currency. Daily figures
4
88
3
91
I-44 (right-hand scale)
2
1
0
85
94
97
Weighted 3-month
interest rate differential
(left-hand scale)
8 Aug 2005
100
19 Sept 2005
-1
2002
103
2003
2004
2005
2006
Sources: Norges Bank and Bloomberg
19
Norges Bank
Projected CPI-ATE
and the output gap in the baseline scenario.
Quarterly figures. Per cent. 04 Q1 – 08 Q4
3
3
2
2
1
CPI-ATE
1
0
-1
-2
2004
0
Output gap
-1
-2
2005
2006
2007
2008
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank, IR 2/05
20