February 28, 2016 NASDAQ: SBUX STARBUCKS CORP BUY A+ A A- HOLD B+ B Annual Dividend Rate $0.80 B- C+ C Annual Dividend Yield 1.36% SELL C- D+ D Beta 0.77 Sector: Consumer Goods & Svcs SBUX BUSINESS DESCRIPTION Starbucks Corporation operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of specialty coffee worldwide. The company operates in four segments: Americas; Europe, Middle East, and Africa; China/Asia Pacific; and Channel Development. Weekly Price: (US$) D- E+ E E- F Market Capitalization $86.8 Billion Sub-Industry: Restaurants SMA (50) BUY 52-Week Range $42.05-$64.00 RATING SINCE TARGET PRICE 02/25/2014 $77.11 Price as of 2/25/2016 $58.75 Source: S&P SMA (100) 1 Year 2 Years 80 TARGET TARGET TARGETPRICE PRICE$77.11 $77.11 PRICE $77.11 TARGET 75 70 65 60 55 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 3 Mo. Price Change -5.54 50 1 Yr. 24.65 3 Yr (Ann) 30.22 12 Mo. 15.99 -1.96 -1.22 3 Yr CAGR 13.05 19.74 20.57 45 40 GROWTH (%) 35 Last Qtr 11.87 -30.08 -29.24 Revenues Net Income EPS RETURN ON EQUITY (%) SBUX Q1 2016 41.15 Q1 2015 43.47 Q1 2014 2.38 Ind Avg 24.45 39.72 22.46 S&P 500 12.28 14.59 13.97 30 Rating History BUY Volume in Millions 100 50 2014 2015 0 2016 COMPUSTAT for Price and Volume, TheStreet Ratings, Inc. for Rating History RECOMMENDATION We rate STARBUCKS CORP (SBUX) a BUY. This is based on the convergence of positive investment measures, which should help this stock outperform the majority of stocks that we rate. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its revenue growth, good cash flow from operations, largely solid financial position with reasonable debt levels by most measures, solid stock price performance and notable return on equity. We feel its strengths outweigh the fact that the company has had sub par growth in net income. P/E COMPARISON 36.04 29.30 21.53 SBUX Ind Avg S&P 500 EPS ANALYSIS¹ ($) HIGHLIGHTS Despite its growing revenue, the company underperformed as compared with the industry average of 13.2%. Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues rose by 11.9%. This growth in revenue does not appear to have trickled down to the company's bottom line, displayed by a decline in earnings per share. Net operating cash flow has increased to $1,636.00 million or 14.79% when compared to the same quarter last year. In addition, STARBUCKS CORP has also vastly surpassed the industry average cash flow growth rate of -53.51%. 2014 2015 Q1 0.46 Q4 0.43 Q3 0.41 Q2 0.33 Q1 0.65 Q4 0.39 Q3 0.34 Q2 0.28 Q1 0.36 The current debt-to-equity ratio, 0.39, is low and is below the industry average, implying that there has been successful management of debt levels. Although the company had a strong debt-to-equity ratio, its quick ratio of 0.71 is somewhat weak and could be cause for future problems. 2016 NA = not available NM = not meaningful 1 Compustat fiscal year convention is used for all fundamental data items. STARBUCKS CORP's earnings per share declined by 29.2% in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. This company has reported somewhat volatile earnings recently. But, we feel it is poised for EPS growth in the coming year. During the past fiscal year, STARBUCKS CORP increased its bottom line by earning $1.82 versus $1.36 in the prior year. This year, the market expects an improvement in earnings ($1.89 versus $1.82). Looking at where the stock is today compared to one year ago, we find that it is not only higher, but it has also clearly outperformed the rise in the S&P 500 over the same period, despite the company's weak earnings results. The stock's price rise over the last year has driven it to a level which is somewhat expensive compared to the rest of its industry. We feel, however, that other strengths this company displays justify these higher price levels. This report is for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Neither TheStreet Ratings nor any other party guarantees its accuracy or makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Redistribution is prohibited without the express written consent of TheStreet Ratings. Copyright(c) 2006-2015. All rights reserved. Report Date: February 28, 2016 PAGE 1 February 28, 2016 NASDAQ: SBUX STARBUCKS CORP Sector: Consumer Goods & Svcs Restaurants Source: S&P Annual Dividend Rate $0.80 Annual Dividend Yield 1.36% PEER GROUP ANALYSIS 250% QSR V FA AB OR -50% DNKN LE AB Revenue Growth (TTM) LE R VO FA SBUX 5% 55% EBITDA Margin (TTM) Companies with higher EBITDA margins and revenue growth rates are outperforming companies with lower EBITDA margins and revenue growth rates. Companies for this scatter plot have a market capitalization between $3.5 Billion and $108.7 Billion. Companies with NA or NM values do not appear. *EBITDA – Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization. REVENUE GROWTH AND EARNINGS YIELD 250% 52-Week Range $42.05-$64.00 Price as of 2/25/2016 $58.75 The foodservice industry employs more than 12 million people, making it America’s second largest employer after the U.S. government. Not only is the industry huge, it’s growing, as factors - such as a rise in two-income households - have been leading to increasing levels of dining out. In recent years, restaurant sales have risen roughly 5% annually according to National Restaurant Association estimates. However, despite its growth rate, the industry should be seen as mature. Companies within the industry generally earn thin margins and face stiff competition. As a result, M&A activity is frequent as competitors look to spread fixed costs across more locations. UN ARMK CMG PNRA CBRL DPZ YUM Market Capitalization $86.8 Billion INDUSTRY ANALYSIS The hotels, restaurant, and leisure industry consists of hotels, restaurants, casinos, cruise lines, resorts, and theme parks. Demand is driven by a fairly consistent group of factors throughout the whole of the industry: personal income levels, total employment, and consumer confidence. In recent years, catastrophic weather, fear of terrorism, and health epidemics directly impacted the industry in a material way. The industry is capital, marketing, personnel, energy, maintenance, and technology intensive. Major players include Intercontinental Hotels Group (IHG), Marriott International Inc. (MAR), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), MGM Resorts International (MGM), McDonald’s (MCD), and Yum! Brands (YUM). REVENUE GROWTH AND EBITDA MARGIN* DRI Beta 0.77 QSR Both tourism and business travel remain vital to the industry, and as a result, U.S. GDP growth, consumer confidence, and corporate earnings remain vital to the industry’s success. The expansion in capital spending has been in response to projected demand. However, overdevelopment in certain areas is a concern. Looking forward, any prolonged low occupancy rates could threaten hotels that are heavily leveraged. As for metrics, occupancy, average daily room rate, and revenue per available room should be considered when analyzing the industry or a player within the industry. Casinos generate roughly $68 billion in revenues annually, and typically, 50% of a casino hotel’s revenues come from gaming, 20% from hotel rooms, 15% from food and beverages, and 15% from retail stores, shows, and other entertainment offerings. Expansion and consolidation have been recent trends of note. In 2005 alone, MGM Resorts International purchased Mandalay Resort Group for close to $8 billion and Harrah’s bought Caesars for over $9 billion. Recent years have also seen a good amount of new casino construction in the $700 million range as competitors jockey to attract visitors by providing more elaborate offerings. Looking ahead, further capacity expansion may threaten margins. Meanwhile, most of the industry’s top-line growth has come from Native American casinos, which at present generate roughly $16 billion in revenues annually. V FA AB OR PEER GROUP: Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure LE AB -50% R VO FA Revenue Growth (TTM) LE UN CMG DPZ DNKNSBUX PNRA ARMK 1% DRI CBRL YUM MCD 5% Earnings Yield (TTM) Companies that exhibit both a high earnings yield and high revenue growth are generally more attractive than companies with low revenue growth and low earnings yield. Companies for this scatter plot have revenue growth rates between -7.4% and 238.4%. Companies with NA or NM values do not appear. Ticker SBUX DRI ARMK QSR DPZ PNRA DNKN CBRL YUM CMG MCD Recent Company Name Price ($) STARBUCKS CORP 58.75 DARDEN RESTAURANTS INC 63.74 ARAMARK 31.53 RESTAURANT BRANDS INTL INC 33.67 DOMINO'S PIZZA INC 132.90 PANERA BREAD CO 205.02 DUNKIN' BRANDS GROUP INC 46.19 CRACKER BARREL OLD CTRY STO 147.90 YUM BRANDS INC 70.96 CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC 505.33 MCDONALD'S CORP 118.37 Market Cap ($M) 86,838 8,174 7,627 7,601 6,626 4,714 4,234 3,541 29,002 15,182 108,691 Price/ Earnings 36.04 22.85 31.85 67.34 42.32 35.29 43.17 20.69 24.30 33.49 24.61 Net Sales TTM ($M) 19,732.90 6,905.00 14,337.06 4,052.20 2,118.30 2,681.58 810.93 2,869.52 13,105.00 4,501.22 25,413.00 Net Income TTM ($M) 2,461.60 368.70 243.79 375.10 178.06 149.34 105.23 171.82 1,293.00 475.60 4,529.30 The peer group comparison is based on Major Restaurants companies of comparable size. This report is for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Neither TheStreet Ratings nor any other party guarantees its accuracy or makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Redistribution is prohibited without the express written consent of TheStreet Ratings. Copyright(c) 2006-2015. All rights reserved. Report Date: February 28, 2016 PAGE 2 February 28, 2016 NASDAQ: SBUX STARBUCKS CORP Sector: Consumer Goods & Svcs Restaurants Source: S&P Annual Dividend Rate $0.80 Annual Dividend Yield 1.36% COMPANY DESCRIPTION Starbucks Corporation operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of specialty coffee worldwide. The company operates in four segments: Americas; Europe, Middle East, and Africa; China/Asia Pacific; and Channel Development. Its stores offer coffee and tea beverages, packaged roasted whole bean and ground coffees, single-serve and ready-to-drink coffee and tea products, juices, and bottled water. The company's stores also provide fresh food and snack offerings; and various food products, such as pastries, and breakfast sandwiches and lunch items, as well as serve ware, beverage-making equipment, and accessories. In addition, it licenses its trademarks through licensed stores, and grocery and national foodservice accounts. The company offers its products under the Starbucks, Teavana, Tazo, Seattle's Best Coffee, Evolution Fresh, La Boulange, Ethos, Starbucks VIA, Seattle's Best Coffee, Frappuccino, Starbucks Doubleshot, Starbucks Refreshers, and Starbucks Discoveries Iced Cafe Favorites brand names. As of September 27, 2015, it operated 23,043 stores. Starbucks Corporation was founded in 1985 and is based in Seattle, Washington. STARBUCKS CORP 2401 Utah Avenue South Seattle, WA 98134 USA Phone: 206-447-1575 http://www.starbucks.com Beta 0.77 Market Capitalization $86.8 Billion 52-Week Range $42.05-$64.00 Price as of 2/25/2016 $58.75 STOCK-AT-A-GLANCE Below is a summary of the major fundamental and technical factors we consider when determining our overall recommendation of SBUX shares. It is provided in order to give you a deeper understanding of our rating methodology as well as to paint a more complete picture of a stock's strengths and weaknesses. It is important to note, however, that these factors only tell part of the story. To gain an even more comprehensive understanding of our stance on the stock, these factors must be assessed in combination with the stock’s valuation. Please refer to our Valuation section on page 5 for further information. FACTOR SCORE 5.0 Growth out of 5 stars weak Measures the growth of both the company's income statement and cash flow. On this factor, SBUX has a growth score better than 90% of the stocks we rate. strong 4.5 Total Return out of 5 stars weak Measures the historical price movement of the stock. The stock performance of this company has beaten 80% of the companies we cover. strong 5.0 Efficiency out of 5 stars weak Measures the strength and historic growth of a company's return on invested capital. The company has generated more income per dollar of capital than 90% of the companies we review. strong 5.0 Price volatility out of 5 stars weak Measures the volatility of the company's stock price historically. The stock is less volatile than 90% of the stocks we monitor. strong 5.0 Solvency out of 5 stars weak Measures the solvency of the company based on several ratios. The company is more solvent than 90% of the companies we analyze. strong 3.0 Income out of 5 stars weak Measures dividend yield and payouts to shareholders. The company's dividend is higher than 50% of the companies we track. strong THESTREET RATINGS RESEARCH METHODOLOGY TheStreet Ratings' stock model projects a stock's total return potential over a 12-month period including both price appreciation and dividends. Our Buy, Hold or Sell ratings designate how we expect these stocks to perform against a general benchmark of the equities market and interest rates. While our model is quantitative, it utilizes both subjective and objective elements. For instance, subjective elements include expected equities market returns, future interest rates, implied industry outlook and forecasted company earnings. Objective elements include volatility of past operating revenues, financial strength, and company cash flows. Our model gauges the relationship between risk and reward in several ways, including: the pricing drawdown as compared to potential profit volatility, i.e.how much one is willing to risk in order to earn profits; the level of acceptable volatility for highly performing stocks; the current valuation as compared to projected earnings growth; and the financial strength of the underlying company as compared to its stock's valuation as compared to projected earnings growth; and the financial strength of the underlying company as compared to its stock's performance. These and many more derived observations are then combined, ranked, weighted, and scenario-tested to create a more complete analysis. The result is a systematic and disciplined method of selecting stocks. This report is for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Neither TheStreet Ratings nor any other party guarantees its accuracy or makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Redistribution is prohibited without the express written consent of TheStreet Ratings. Copyright(c) 2006-2015. All rights reserved. Report Date: February 28, 2016 PAGE 3 February 28, 2016 NASDAQ: SBUX STARBUCKS CORP Sector: Consumer Goods & Svcs Restaurants Source: S&P Annual Dividend Rate $0.80 Annual Dividend Yield 1.36% Consensus EPS Estimates² ($) IBES consensus estimates are provided by Thomson Financial Beta 0.77 Market Capitalization $86.8 Billion 52-Week Range $42.05-$64.00 Price as of 2/25/2016 $58.75 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS STARBUCKS CORP's gross profit margin for the first quarter of its fiscal year 2016 is essentially unchanged when compared to the same period a year ago. Even though sales increased, the net income has decreased. STARBUCKS CORP has weak liquidity. Currently, the Quick Ratio is 0.71 which shows a lack of ability to cover short-term cash needs. The company's liquidity has decreased from the same period last year. At the same time, stockholders' equity ("net worth") has remained virtually unchanged only increasing by 3.56% from the same quarter last year. Overall, the key liquidity measurements indicate that the company is in a position in which financial difficulties could develop in the future. 0.39 1.89 E 2.18 E Q2 FY16 2016(E) 2017(E) STOCKS TO BUY: TheStreet Quant Ratings has identified a handful of stocks that can potentially TRIPLE in the next 12-months. To learn more visit www.TheStreetRatings.com. INCOME STATEMENT Net Sales ($mil) EBITDA ($mil) EBIT ($mil) Net Income ($mil) Q1 FY16 5,373.50 1,229.40 993.90 687.60 Q1 FY15 4,803.30 1,079.80 873.80 983.40 Q1 FY16 2,379.90 12,943.50 2,347.70 5,981.50 Q1 FY15 1,953.10 12,351.10 2,048.40 5,775.40 Q1 FY16 28.56% 22.87% 18.50% 1.52 19.01% 41.15% Q1 FY15 28.46% 22.48% 18.19% 1.38 20.32% 43.47% Q1 FY16 1.07 0.28 16.50 60.24 Q1 FY15 1.28 0.26 16.30 53.61 Q1 FY16 1,486 0.20 0.46 4.03 NA 10,770,952 Q1 FY15 1,501 0.16 0.65 3.85 NA 8,281,083 BALANCE SHEET Cash & Equiv. ($mil) Total Assets ($mil) Total Debt ($mil) Equity ($mil) PROFITABILITY Gross Profit Margin EBITDA Margin Operating Margin Sales Turnover Return on Assets Return on Equity DEBT Current Ratio Debt/Capital Interest Expense Interest Coverage SHARE DATA Shares outstanding (mil) Div / share EPS Book value / share Institutional Own % Avg Daily Volume 2 Sum of quarterly figures may not match annual estimates due to use of median consensus estimates. This report is for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Neither TheStreet Ratings nor any other party guarantees its accuracy or makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Redistribution is prohibited without the express written consent of TheStreet Ratings. Copyright(c) 2006-2015. All rights reserved. Report Date: February 28, 2016 PAGE 4 February 28, 2016 NASDAQ: SBUX STARBUCKS CORP Sector: Consumer Goods & Svcs Restaurants Source: S&P Annual Dividend Rate $0.80 Annual Dividend Yield 1.36% RATINGS HISTORY Our rating for STARBUCKS CORP has not changed since 2/25/2014. As of 2/25/2016, the stock was trading at a price of $58.75 which is 8.2% below its 52-week high of $64.00 and 39.7% above its 52-week low of $42.05. BUY: $35.28 2 Year Chart Beta 0.77 Market Capitalization $86.8 Billion $70 $60 Price/Earnings $50 $40 2015 MOST RECENT RATINGS CHANGES Date Price Action 2/25/14 $35.28 No Change From Buy To Buy Price reflects the closing price as of the date listed, if available RATINGS DEFINITIONS & DISTRIBUTION OF THESTREET RATINGS (as of 2/25/2016) 1 2 3 35.29% Hold - We do not believe this stock offers conclusive evidence to warrant the purchase or sale of shares at this time and that its likelihood of positive total return is roughly in balance with the risk of loss. Price/Projected Earnings Research Contact: 212-321-5381 Sales Contact: 866-321-8726 5 1 2 3 4 5 2 3 premium 4 5 1 2 premium 3 4 5 Price to Earnings/Growth 4 5 discount 1 2 3 premium 4 5 discount SBUX 9.39 Peers 2.95 • Premium. The PEG ratio is the stock’s P/E divided by the consensus estimate of long-term earnings growth. Faster growth can justify higher price multiples. • SBUX trades at a significant premium to its peers. Earnings Growth 1 2 3 4 lower 5 higher SBUX -1.22 Peers 22.69 • Lower. Elevated earnings growth rates can lead to capital appreciation and justify higher price-to-earnings ratios. • However, SBUX is expected to significantly trail its peers on the basis of its earnings growth rate. Sales Growth discount SBUX 4.42 Peers 2.96 • Premium. In the absence of P/E and P/B multiples, the price-to-sales ratio can display the value investors are placing on each dollar of sales. • SBUX is trading at a significant premium to its industry. 3 SBUX 21.95 Peers 14.94 • Premium. The P/CF ratio, a stock’s price divided by the company's cash flow from operations, is useful for comparing companies with different capital requirements or financing structures. • SBUX is trading at a significant premium to its peers. discount SBUX 14.59 Peers 12.45 • Premium. A higher price-to-book ratio makes a stock less attractive to investors seeking stocks with lower market values per dollar of equity on the balance sheet. • SBUX is trading at a premium to its peers. 2 premium discount SBUX 26.95 Peers 24.01 • Premium. A higher price-to-projected earnings ratio than its peers can signify a more expensive stock or higher future growth expectations. • SBUX is trading at a significant premium to its peers. 1 1 Price/CashFlow discount premium Price/Sales 32.52% Sell - We believe that this stock is likely to decline by more than 10% over the next 12 months, with the risk involved too great to compensate for any possible returns. 4 SBUX 36.04 Peers 29.30 • Premium. A higher P/E ratio than its peers can signify a more expensive stock or higher growth expectations. • SBUX is trading at a premium to its peers. Price/Book 32.19% Buy - We believe that this stock has the opportunity to appreciate and produce a total return of more than 10% over the next 12 months. TheStreet Ratings 14 Wall Street, 15th Floor New York, NY 10005 www.thestreet.com Price as of 2/25/2016 $58.75 VALUATION BUY. This stock's P/E ratio indicates a premium compared to an average of 29.30 for the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry and a significant premium compared to the S&P 500 average of 21.53. For additional comparison, its price-to-book ratio of 14.59 indicates a significant premium versus the S&P 500 average of 2.56 and a significant premium versus the industry average of 12.45. The price-to-sales ratio is well above both the S&P 500 average and the industry average, indicating a premium. Upon assessment of these and other key valuation criteria, STARBUCKS CORP proves to trade at a premium to investment alternatives within the industry. premium 2014 52-Week Range $42.05-$64.00 1 2 3 lower 4 5 higher SBUX 15.99 Peers 7.04 • Higher. A sales growth rate that exceeds the industry implies that a company is gaining market share. • SBUX has a sales growth rate that significantly exceeds its peers. DISCLAIMER: The opinions and information contained herein have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but TheStreet Ratings cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness, and that of the opinions based thereon. Data is provided via the COMPUSTAT® Xpressfeed product from Standard &Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., as well as other third-party data providers. TheStreet Ratings is a division of TheStreet, Inc., which is a publisher. This research report contains opinions and is provided for informational purposes only. You should not rely solely upon the research herein for purposes of transacting securities or other investments, and you are encouraged to conduct your own research and due diligence, and to seek the advice of a qualified securities professional, before you make any investment. None of the information contained in this report constitutes, or is intended to constitute a recommendation by TheStreet Ratings of any particular security or trading strategy or a determination by TheStreet Ratings that any security or trading strategy is suitable for any specific person. To the extent any of the information contained herein may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. Your use of this report is governed by TheStreet, Inc.'s Terms of Use found at http://www.thestreet.com/static/about/terms-of-use.html. This report is for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Neither TheStreet Ratings nor any other party guarantees its accuracy or makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Redistribution is prohibited without the express written consent of TheStreet Ratings. Copyright(c) 2006-2015. All rights reserved. Report Date: February 28, 2016 PAGE 5