February 14, 2016 NYSE: F FORD MOTOR CO BUY A+ A A- HOLD B+ B Annual Dividend Rate $0.60 B- C+ C Annual Dividend Yield 5.37% SELL C- D+ D Beta 1.37 Sector: Consumer Goods & Svcs F BUSINESS DESCRIPTION Ford Motor Company manufactures and distributes automobiles worldwide. The company operates through two sectors, Automotive and Financial Services. The Automotive sector develops, manufactures, distributes, and services vehicles, parts, and accessories. Weekly Price: (US$) D- E+ E E- F Market Capitalization $43.5 Billion HOLD 52-Week Range $10.44-$16.74 Sub-Industry: Automobile Manufacturers SMA (50) RATING SINCE SMA (100) 01/27/2016 Price as of 2/11/2016 $11.17 Source: S&P 1 Year 2 Years 18 17 16 15 14 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 3 Mo. Price Change -21.95 1 Yr. -31.27 3 Yr (Ann) -5.18 13 12 GROWTH (%) Last Qtr 12.35 3,492.30 4,600.00 Revenues Net Income EPS 12 Mo. 3.83 106.65 111.53 3 Yr CAGR 3.85 5.15 5.13 11 Rating History BUY Volume in Millions 400 RETURN ON EQUITY (%) F NA 12.84 27.11 Q4 2015 Q4 2014 Q4 2013 Ind Avg -1.05 6.59 10.46 S&P 500 12.28 14.59 13.97 6.77 10.53 20.18 F Ind Avg S&P 500 2016 0 2014 Q4 0.47 Q3 0.48 Q1 0.23 The net income growth from the same quarter one year ago has significantly exceeded that of the S&P 500 and the Automobiles industry. The net income increased by 3492.3% when compared to the same quarter one year prior, rising from $52.00 million to $1,868.00 million. Q2 0.47 Q4 0.01 Q3 0.21 Q1 0.24 Q2 0.32 Q4 0.74 Q3 0.31 Q2 0.30 2015 COMPUSTAT for Price and Volume, TheStreet Ratings, Inc. for Rating History HIGHLIGHTS FORD MOTOR CO reported significant earnings per share improvement in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. The company has demonstrated a pattern of positive earnings per share growth over the past year. We feel that this trend should continue. This trend suggests that the performance of the business is improving. During the past fiscal year, FORD MOTOR CO increased its bottom line by earning $1.65 versus $0.78 in the prior year. This year, the market expects an improvement in earnings ($1.95 versus $1.65). EPS ANALYSIS¹ ($) Q1 0.40 2014 RECOMMENDATION We rate FORD MOTOR CO (F) a HOLD. The primary factors that have impacted our rating are mixed - some indicating strength, some showing weaknesses, with little evidence to justify the expectation of either a positive or negative performance for this stock relative to most other stocks. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its impressive record of earnings per share growth, compelling growth in net income and revenue growth. However, as a counter to these strengths, we find that the stock has had a generally disappointing performance in the past year. P/E COMPARISON 2013 200 Despite its growing revenue, the company underperformed as compared with the industry average of 18.0%. Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues rose by 12.4%. Growth in the company's revenue appears to have helped boost the earnings per share. 2015 NA = not available NM = not meaningful 1 Compustat fiscal year convention is used for all fundamental data items. F's stock share price has done very poorly compared to where it was a year ago: Despite any rallies, the net result is that it is down by 31.27%, which is also worse that the performance of the S&P 500 Index. Investors have so far failed to pay much attention to the earnings improvements the company has managed to achieve over the last quarter. Turning toward the future, the fact that the stock has come down in price over the past year should not necessarily be interpreted as a negative; it could be one of the factors that may help make the stock attractive down the road. Right now, however, we believe that it is too soon to buy. This report is for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Neither TheStreet Ratings nor any other party guarantees its accuracy or makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Redistribution is prohibited without the express written consent of TheStreet Ratings. Copyright(c) 2006-2015. All rights reserved. Report Date: February 14, 2016 PAGE 1 February 14, 2016 NYSE: F FORD MOTOR CO Sector: Consumer Goods & Svcs Automobile Manufacturers Source: S&P Annual Dividend Rate $0.60 Annual Dividend Yield 5.37% PEER GROUP ANALYSIS 30% V FA AB OR LE R VO FA -5% LE AB Revenue Growth (TTM) UN WGO TM GM -10% Companies with higher EBITDA margins and revenue growth rates are outperforming companies with lower EBITDA margins and revenue growth rates. Companies for this scatter plot have a market capitalization between $453.8 Million and $175.4 Billion. Companies with NA or NM values do not appear. *EBITDA – Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization. REVENUE GROWTH AND EARNINGS YIELD 30% AB OR LE R VO FA -5% LE AB Revenue Growth (TTM) UN -5% TM HOG Consumer choice in vehicles is more than ever being influenced by fuel efficiency. Automakers are exploring alternate fuels such as ethanol and electric fuel cells and are delivering hybrid gasoline-electric vehicles and pure-electric car for sale. The new cars are lighter, provide better fuel efficiency, enhanced safety features, and many come with tax credits from the government to make costs competitive. Having an auto industry is considered to be in the strategic interest of America and was bailed-out to help it survive the Great Recession. PEER GROUP: Automobiles F WGO US congress toughened the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) regulations in 2007 that no longer grant exemptions to light trucks classified as SUVs or passenger vans unless they exceed 10,000 lbs. In the near future, the standard is to be modified to accommodate many larger vehicles. Manufacturers have recognized growing demand from developing economies and the opportunity to increase auto parts sourcing from these economies. HMC FCAU Huge health care and fringe benefits provided to big three employees give foreign competitors a strong advantage. All three are negotiating new labor contracts with the United Auto Workers (UAW) union. With these on-going negotiations, the big three hope to reduce the profit-per-vehicle gap. Reduced sales, different platforms for parts, high raw material costs and tough exchange rates are other hurdles facing the industry. The motorcycle industry is reeling under pressures such as volatile raw material costs, high gasoline prices and reduced consumer spending. Harley’s heavy motorcycle sales have remained relatively flat, but light motorcycle sales have been hurt by tough economic conditions. V FA THO Price as of 2/11/2016 $11.17 20% EBITDA Margin (TTM) TSLA 52-Week Range $10.44-$16.74 Surging oil prices have shifted demand away from SUVs and light trucks to more fuel-efficient options. This change in consumer preferences has supported German, Japanese and Korean manufacturers, whose market share has consequently expanded. The big three are trying to adapt their product lines to changing preferences. HMC THO Market Capitalization $43.5 Billion INDUSTRY ANALYSIS The automobile industry is comprised of companies that design, manufacture, engineer, assemble and market automobiles and motorcycles as well as provide leasing and financial services. Industry performance is closely linked with overall economic performance. Major players include General Motors (GM), Ford Motor Company (F) and Chrysler. This group is commonly referred to as Detroit’s big three. BMW, Daimler (DAI), Honda (HMC), Hyundai, Mazda, Nissan, Subaru, Toyota (TM) and Harley-Davidson (HOG) are other prominent players. There are also niche players such as Winnebago Industries (WGO) for motor- homes and Tesla Motors (TSLA) for high-end electric cars. REVENUE GROWTH AND EBITDA MARGIN* TSLA Beta 1.37 GM 25% Earnings Yield (TTM) Companies that exhibit both a high earnings yield and high revenue growth are generally more attractive than companies with low revenue growth and low earnings yield. Companies for this scatter plot have revenue growth rates between -3.8% and 26.5%. Companies with NA or NM values do not appear. Ticker F FCAU HOG WGO HMC GM THO TSLA TM Recent Company Name Price ($) FORD MOTOR CO 11.17 FIAT CHRYSLER AUTOMOBILES NV 5.99 HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC 38.12 WINNEBAGO INDUSTRIES 16.82 HONDA MOTOR CO LTD 24.85 GENERAL MOTORS CO 26.90 THOR INDUSTRIES INC 48.06 TESLA MOTORS INC 150.47 TOYOTA MOTOR CORP 105.08 Market Cap ($M) 43,548 7,697 7,314 454 45,014 41,547 2,522 19,704 175,378 Price/ Earnings 6.77 99.83 10.53 11.36 10.31 4.49 11.90 NM 8.50 Net Sales TTM ($M) 149,607.00 120,095.11 5,995.40 966.33 124,554.90 152,356.00 4,115.18 4,046.02 237,384.00 Net Income TTM ($M) 6,586.00 409.38 752.21 39.87 4,342.82 9,687.00 210.96 -888.66 19,390.00 The peer group comparison is based on Major Automobile Manufacturers companies of comparable size. This report is for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Neither TheStreet Ratings nor any other party guarantees its accuracy or makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Redistribution is prohibited without the express written consent of TheStreet Ratings. Copyright(c) 2006-2015. All rights reserved. Report Date: February 14, 2016 PAGE 2 February 14, 2016 NYSE: F FORD MOTOR CO Sector: Consumer Goods & Svcs Automobile Manufacturers Source: S&P Annual Dividend Rate $0.60 Annual Dividend Yield 5.37% COMPANY DESCRIPTION Ford Motor Company manufactures and distributes automobiles worldwide. The company operates through two sectors, Automotive and Financial Services. The Automotive sector develops, manufactures, distributes, and services vehicles, parts, and accessories. It offers vehicles primarily under the Ford and Lincoln brand names. This sector markets and sells its products through distributors and dealers, as well as through dealerships to fleet customers, including commercial fleet customers, daily rental car companies, and governments. The Financial Services sector offers various automotive financing products to and through automotive dealers. It provides financing products, including retail installment sale contracts for new and used vehicles; and direct financing leases for new vehicles to retail customers, government entities, daily rental car companies, and fleet customers. This sector also offers wholesale loans to dealers to finance the purchase of vehicle inventory; and loans to dealers to finance working capital and improvement of dealership facilities, purchase dealership real estate, and other dealer vehicle programs. The company was founded in 1903 and is based in Dearborn, Michigan. FORD MOTOR CO One American Road Dearborn, MI 48126 USA Phone: 313-322-3000 http://www.ford.com Employees: 187000 Beta 1.37 Market Capitalization $43.5 Billion 52-Week Range $10.44-$16.74 Price as of 2/11/2016 $11.17 STOCK-AT-A-GLANCE Below is a summary of the major fundamental and technical factors we consider when determining our overall recommendation of F shares. It is provided in order to give you a deeper understanding of our rating methodology as well as to paint a more complete picture of a stock's strengths and weaknesses. It is important to note, however, that these factors only tell part of the story. To gain an even more comprehensive understanding of our stance on the stock, these factors must be assessed in combination with the stock’s valuation. Please refer to our Valuation section on page 5 for further information. FACTOR SCORE 4.5 Growth out of 5 stars weak Measures the growth of both the company's income statement and cash flow. On this factor, F has a growth score better than 80% of the stocks we rate. strong 2.0 Total Return out of 5 stars weak Measures the historical price movement of the stock. The stock performance of this company has beaten 30% of the companies we cover. strong 3.0 Efficiency out of 5 stars weak Measures the strength and historic growth of a company's return on invested capital. The company has generated more income per dollar of capital than 50% of the companies we review. strong 2.5 Price volatility out of 5 stars weak Measures the volatility of the company's stock price historically. The stock is less volatile than 40% of the stocks we monitor. strong 2.0 Solvency out of 5 stars weak Measures the solvency of the company based on several ratios. The company is more solvent than 30% of the companies we analyze. strong 4.5 Income out of 5 stars weak Measures dividend yield and payouts to shareholders. The company's dividend is higher than 80% of the companies we track. strong THESTREET RATINGS RESEARCH METHODOLOGY TheStreet Ratings' stock model projects a stock's total return potential over a 12-month period including both price appreciation and dividends. Our Buy, Hold or Sell ratings designate how we expect these stocks to perform against a general benchmark of the equities market and interest rates. While our model is quantitative, it utilizes both subjective and objective elements. For instance, subjective elements include expected equities market returns, future interest rates, implied industry outlook and forecasted company earnings. Objective elements include volatility of past operating revenues, financial strength, and company cash flows. Our model gauges the relationship between risk and reward in several ways, including: the pricing drawdown as compared to potential profit volatility, i.e.how much one is willing to risk in order to earn profits; the level of acceptable volatility for highly performing stocks; the current valuation as compared to projected earnings growth; and the financial strength of the underlying company as compared to its stock's valuation as compared to projected earnings growth; and the financial strength of the underlying company as compared to its stock's performance. These and many more derived observations are then combined, ranked, weighted, and scenario-tested to create a more complete analysis. The result is a systematic and disciplined method of selecting stocks. This report is for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Neither TheStreet Ratings nor any other party guarantees its accuracy or makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Redistribution is prohibited without the express written consent of TheStreet Ratings. Copyright(c) 2006-2015. All rights reserved. Report Date: February 14, 2016 PAGE 3 February 14, 2016 NYSE: F FORD MOTOR CO Sector: Consumer Goods & Svcs Automobile Manufacturers Source: S&P Annual Dividend Rate $0.60 Annual Dividend Yield 5.37% Consensus EPS Estimates² ($) IBES consensus estimates are provided by Thomson Financial Beta 1.37 Market Capitalization $43.5 Billion 52-Week Range $10.44-$16.74 Price as of 2/11/2016 $11.17 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS The company has grown its sales and net income during the past quarter when compared with the same quarter a year ago, and although its growth in net income has outpaced the industry average, its revenue growth has not. STOCKS TO BUY: TheStreet Quant Ratings has identified a handful of stocks that can potentially TRIPLE in the next 12-months. To learn more visit www.TheStreetRatings.com. 0.48 1.95 E 2.05 E Q1 FY16 2016(E) 2017(E) INCOME STATEMENT Net Sales ($mil) EBITDA ($mil) EBIT ($mil) Net Income ($mil) Q4 FY15 40,300.00 NA NA 1,868.00 Q4 FY14 35,870.00 2,940.00 946.00 52.00 Q4 FY15 NA NA NA NA Q4 FY14 27,892.00 208,527.00 119,171.00 24,805.00 Q4 FY15 NA NA NA NA NA NA Q4 FY14 16.65% 8.19% 2.64% 0.69 1.52% 12.84% Q4 FY15 NA NA NA NA Q4 FY14 NA 0.83 843.00 1.12 Q4 FY15 3,969 0.15 0.47 NA NA 37,955,159 Q4 FY14 3,956 0.13 0.01 6.27 NA 31,711,793 BALANCE SHEET Cash & Equiv. ($mil) Total Assets ($mil) Total Debt ($mil) Equity ($mil) PROFITABILITY Gross Profit Margin EBITDA Margin Operating Margin Sales Turnover Return on Assets Return on Equity DEBT Current Ratio Debt/Capital Interest Expense Interest Coverage SHARE DATA Shares outstanding (mil) Div / share EPS Book value / share Institutional Own % Avg Daily Volume 2 Sum of quarterly figures may not match annual estimates due to use of median consensus estimates. This report is for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Neither TheStreet Ratings nor any other party guarantees its accuracy or makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Redistribution is prohibited without the express written consent of TheStreet Ratings. Copyright(c) 2006-2015. All rights reserved. Report Date: February 14, 2016 PAGE 4 February 14, 2016 NYSE: F FORD MOTOR CO Sector: Consumer Goods & Svcs Automobile Manufacturers Source: S&P Annual Dividend Rate $0.60 Annual Dividend Yield 5.37% Beta 1.37 Market Capitalization $43.5 Billion 52-Week Range $10.44-$16.74 Price as of 2/11/2016 $11.17 VALUATION HOLD. This stock's P/E ratio indicates a discount compared to an average of 10.53 for the Automobiles industry and a significant discount compared to the S&P 500 average of 20.18. The price-to-sales ratio is well below both the S&P 500 average and the industry average, indicating a discount. After reviewing these and other key valuation criteria, FORD MOTOR CO proves to trade at a discount to investment alternatives within the industry. 2 Year Chart $18 Price/Earnings $16 F 6.77 Peers 10.53 • Discount. A lower P/E ratio than its peers can signify a less expensive stock or lower growth expectations. • F is trading at a significant discount to its peers. HOLD: $11.85 BUY: $14.96 RATINGS HISTORY Our rating for FORD MOTOR CO was recently downgraded from Buy to Hold on 1/27/2016. As of 2/11/2016, the stock was trading at a price of $11.17 which is 33.3% below its 52-week high of $16.74 and 7.0% above its 52-week low of $10.44. $14 $12 2014 1 2 3 premium 4 5 2015 Price/Projected Earnings MOST RECENT RATINGS CHANGES Date Price Action 1/27/16 $11.85 Downgrade 2/11/14 $14.96 No Change From Buy Buy To Hold Buy RATINGS DEFINITIONS & DISTRIBUTION OF THESTREET RATINGS (as of 2/11/2016) 32.90% Buy - We believe that this stock has the opportunity to appreciate and produce a total return of more than 10% over the next 12 months. 35.44% Hold - We do not believe this stock offers conclusive evidence to warrant the purchase or sale of shares at this time and that its likelihood of positive total return is roughly in balance with the risk of loss. 31.66% Sell - We believe that this stock is likely to decline by more than 10% over the next 12 months, with the risk involved too great to compensate for any possible returns. Research Contact: 212-321-5381 Sales Contact: 866-321-8726 2 3 premium Price reflects the closing price as of the date listed, if available TheStreet Ratings 14 Wall Street, 15th Floor New York, NY 10005 www.thestreet.com 1 4 5 1 2 3 premium 4 5 Price/Sales 1 2 premium 3 4 5 Price to Earnings/Growth 4 5 discount 1 2 3 premium 4 5 discount F 0.05 Peers 0.80 • Discount. The PEG ratio is the stock’s P/E divided by the consensus estimate of long-term earnings growth. Faster growth can justify higher price multiples. • F trades at a significant discount to its peers. Earnings Growth 1 2 3 4 lower 5 higher F 111.53 Peers 35.14 • Higher. Elevated earnings growth rates can lead to capital appreciation and justify higher price-to-earnings ratios. • F is expected to have an earnings growth rate that significantly exceeds its peers. Sales Growth discount F 0.30 Peers 0.81 • Discount. In the absence of P/E and P/B multiples, the price-to-sales ratio can display the value investors are placing on each dollar of sales. • F is trading at a significant discount to its industry on this measurement. 3 F NA Peers 4.41 • Neutral. The P/CF ratio is the stock’s price divided by the sum of the company's cash flow from operations. It is useful for comparing companies with different capital requirements or financing structures. • Ratio not available. discount F NA Peers 2.18 • Neutral. A lower price-to-book ratio makes a stock more attractive to investors seeking stocks with lower market values per dollar of equity on the balance sheet. • Ratio not available. 2 premium discount F 5.45 Peers 12.49 • Discount. A lower price-to-projected earnings ratio than its peers can signify a less expensive stock or lower future growth expectations. • F is trading at a significant discount to its peers. Price/Book 1 Price/CashFlow discount 1 2 3 lower 4 5 higher F 3.83 Peers 4.14 • Average. Comparing a company's sales growth to its industry helps to determine if the company is adding or losing market share. • F is keeping pace with its peers on the basis of sales growth. DISCLAIMER: The opinions and information contained herein have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but TheStreet Ratings cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness, and that of the opinions based thereon. Data is provided via the COMPUSTAT® Xpressfeed product from Standard &Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., as well as other third-party data providers. TheStreet Ratings is a division of TheStreet, Inc., which is a publisher. This research report contains opinions and is provided for informational purposes only. You should not rely solely upon the research herein for purposes of transacting securities or other investments, and you are encouraged to conduct your own research and due diligence, and to seek the advice of a qualified securities professional, before you make any investment. None of the information contained in this report constitutes, or is intended to constitute a recommendation by TheStreet Ratings of any particular security or trading strategy or a determination by TheStreet Ratings that any security or trading strategy is suitable for any specific person. To the extent any of the information contained herein may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. Your use of this report is governed by TheStreet, Inc.'s Terms of Use found at http://www.thestreet.com/static/about/terms-of-use.html. This report is for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Neither TheStreet Ratings nor any other party guarantees its accuracy or makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Redistribution is prohibited without the express written consent of TheStreet Ratings. Copyright(c) 2006-2015. All rights reserved. Report Date: February 14, 2016 PAGE 5