February 28, 2016 NYSE: SAM BOSTON BEER INC BUY A+ A A- HOLD B+ B Annual Dividend Rate NA B- C+ C Annual Dividend Yield NA SELL C- D+ D D- Beta 0.81 SAM BUSINESS DESCRIPTION The Boston Beer Company, Inc. produces and sells alcohol beverages primarily in the United States. The company's flagship beer is Samuel Adams Boston Lager. STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 3 Mo. Price Change -9.87 E E- F Market Capitalization $1.8 Billion Sector: Consumer Non-Discretionary Weekly Price: (US$) E+ Sub-Industry: Brewers SMA (50) HOLD 52-Week Range $160.84-$282.62 RATING SINCE 02/03/2016 Price as of 2/25/2016 $191.92 Source: S&P SMA (100) 1 Year 2 Years 325 300 275 250 1 Yr. -31.12 3 Yr (Ann) 6.76 12 Mo. 6.30 8.45 8.22 3 Yr CAGR 18.27 18.28 18.06 225 200 GROWTH (%) Last Qtr -1.24 -15.52 -13.58 Revenues Net Income EPS RETURN ON EQUITY (%) SAM Q4 2015 21.33 Q4 2014 20.80 Q4 2013 23.30 175 150 Rating History BUY Ind Avg 19.52 16.03 15.48 S&P 500 12.28 14.59 13.97 Volume in Millions 2014 26.51 26.37 21.53 SAM Ind Avg S&P 500 HIGHLIGHTS SAM's debt-to-equity ratio is very low at 0.00 and is currently below that of the industry average, implying that there has been very successful management of debt levels. Along with the favorable debt-to-equity ratio, the company maintains an adequate quick ratio of 1.37, which illustrates the ability to avoid short-term cash problems. 2014 Q4 1.21 Q3 2.85 Q2 2.18 Q1 1.00 Q4 1.40 Q3 2.79 Q1 0.62 The return on equity has improved slightly when compared to the same quarter one year prior. This can be construed as a modest strength in the organization. Compared to other companies in the Beverages industry and the overall market, BOSTON BEER INC's return on equity exceeds that of both the industry average and the S&P 500. Q2 1.88 Q4 1.33 Q3 1.89 Q1 0.51 0 2016 RECOMMENDATION We rate BOSTON BEER INC (SAM) a HOLD. The primary factors that have impacted our rating are mixed some indicating strength, some showing weaknesses, with little evidence to justify the expectation of either a positive or negative performance for this stock relative to most other stocks. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its largely solid financial position with reasonable debt levels by most measures, notable return on equity and expanding profit margins. However, as a counter to these strengths, we also find weaknesses including a generally disappointing performance in the stock itself, weak operating cash flow and unimpressive growth in net income. EPS ANALYSIS¹ ($) Q2 1.45 2015 COMPUSTAT for Price and Volume, TheStreet Ratings, Inc. for Rating History P/E COMPARISON 2013 3 2015 NA = not available NM = not meaningful 1 Compustat fiscal year convention is used for all fundamental data items. BOSTON BEER INC's earnings per share declined by 13.6% in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. This company has reported somewhat volatile earnings recently. But, we feel it is poised for EPS growth in the coming year. During the past fiscal year, BOSTON BEER INC increased its bottom line by earning $7.24 versus $6.69 in the prior year. This year, the market expects an improvement in earnings ($7.81 versus $7.24). Looking at the price performance of SAM's shares over the past 12 months, there is not much good news to report: the stock is down 31.12%, and it has underformed the S&P 500 Index. In addition, the company's earnings per share are lower today than the year-earlier quarter. Although its share price is down sharply from a year ago, do not assume that it can now be tagged as cheap and attractive. The reality is that, based on its current price in relation to its earnings, SAM is still more expensive than most of the other companies in its industry. Net operating cash flow has decreased to $26.21 million or 32.18% when compared to the same quarter last year. In addition, when comparing the cash generation rate to the industry average, the firm's growth is significantly lower. This report is for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Neither TheStreet Ratings nor any other party guarantees its accuracy or makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Redistribution is prohibited without the express written consent of TheStreet Ratings. Copyright(c) 2006-2015. All rights reserved. Report Date: February 28, 2016 PAGE 1 February 28, 2016 NYSE: SAM BOSTON BEER INC Sector: Consumer Non-Discretionary Brewers Source: S&P Annual Dividend Rate NA Annual Dividend Yield NA PEER GROUP ANALYSIS V FA 30% AB OR LE CRVP BF.B CCU LE AB -20% R VO FA TAP TAP.A 5% 40% EBITDA Margin (TTM) Companies with higher EBITDA margins and revenue growth rates are outperforming companies with lower EBITDA margins and revenue growth rates. Companies for this scatter plot have a market capitalization between $156.4 Million and $192.1 Billion. Companies with NA or NM values do not appear. *EBITDA – Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization. 30% V FA COKE AB OR LE CCU R VO FA LE AB -20% BF.B KO UN Revenue Growth (TTM) STZ.B SAM CRVP -4% Health and convenience remain major challenges and play a significant role in shaping product strategies. Beverages have been in the spotlight over the last five years because of research that links ingredients, such as sugars and acids, with prevalent chronic diseases, such as obesity, diabetes, and dental decay. Rising environmental concerns also present a challenge. The production, distribution, and sale of beverages in the United States are subject to the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act, the Dietary Supplement Health and Education Act of 1994, and the Occupational Safety and Health Act. These acts, various environmental statutes, and numerous other federal, state, and local statutes are applicable to the production, transportation, sale, safety, advertisement, and ingredients. Industry fragmentation also poses a major threat. To overcome this, companies are acquiring smaller players or developing independent plants. Coca-Cola’s Monster distribution will help bottlers realize economies of scale in their direct store distribution system. PEER GROUP: Beverages REVENUE GROWTH AND EARNINGS YIELD BREW Price as of 2/25/2016 $191.92 Faced with limited volume growth in developed markets, high-growth developing markets are increasingly important to the bottom line. Mergers, acquisitions, and partnerships are on the rise as food and drink brands look to establish or expand their presence in international markets. PepsiCo and Pepsi Bottling Group Inc. acquired a 75% stake in Russia’s Lebedyansky JSC for around $2.0 billion in March 2008 and Coca-Cola bid $2.3 billion for China Huiyuan Juice Group Ltd. in September 2008. KO UN Revenue Growth (TTM) BREW 52-Week Range $160.84-$282.62 The non-alcoholic beverage segment represents 60% of the market. Premium wineries revenue has registered annual growth of 8% over recent years and energy drink volume continues to surge. STZ.B SAM Market Capitalization $1.8 Billion INDUSTRY ANALYSIS The US beverage industry is broadly divided into alcoholic and non-alcoholic segments. The alcoholic segment includes beer, wine, and spirits. The non-alcoholic segment includes carbonated soft drinks (CSDs), fruit beverages, bottled water, milk, sports drinks, energy drinks, ready-to-drink (RTD) tea, and RTD coffee. The industry has around 4000 manufactures and distributors generating upwards of $140 billion in annual revenue. The industry is highly competitive on pricing, packaging, marketing, and developing new products. The two biggest players are Coca-Cola (KO) and PepsiCo (PEP), which together hold more than 50% of the market. REVENUE GROWTH AND EBITDA MARGIN* COKE Beta 0.81 TAP.A TAP ABEV 5% Ticker SAM ABEV CCU STZ.B BF.B KO TAP TAP.A CRVP BREW COKE Recent Company Name Price ($) BOSTON BEER INC 191.92 AMBEV SA 4.46 COMPANIA CERVECERIAS UNIDAS 19.38 CONSTELLATION BRANDS 139.10 BROWN FORMAN CORP 103.39 COCA-COLA CO 44.16 MOLSON COORS BREWING CO 86.63 MOLSON COORS BREWING CO 86.12 CRYSTAL ROCK HOLDINGS INC 0.75 CRAFT BREW ALLIANCE INC 8.16 COCA-COLA BTLNG CONS 176.69 Market Cap ($M) 1,817 70,101 3,580 28,513 21,559 192,051 16,958 16,958 16 156 1,262 Price/ Earnings 26.51 22.30 21.07 27.49 31.81 26.44 45.59 45.33 NM 90.67 28.54 Net Sales TTM ($M) 959.93 11,800.09 2,115.70 6,361.40 3,103.00 44,294.00 3,567.50 3,567.50 73.90 202.37 2,127.38 Net Income TTM ($M) 98.41 3,137.88 170.58 1,026.10 682.00 7,351.00 359.50 359.50 -0.60 1.68 57.70 The peer group comparison is based on Major Brewers companies of comparable size. Earnings Yield (TTM) Companies that exhibit both a high earnings yield and high revenue growth are generally more attractive than companies with low revenue growth and low earnings yield. Companies for this scatter plot have revenue growth rates between -17.7% and 25.1%. Companies with NA or NM values do not appear. This report is for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Neither TheStreet Ratings nor any other party guarantees its accuracy or makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Redistribution is prohibited without the express written consent of TheStreet Ratings. Copyright(c) 2006-2015. All rights reserved. Report Date: February 28, 2016 PAGE 2 February 28, 2016 NYSE: SAM BOSTON BEER INC Sector: Consumer Non-Discretionary Brewers Source: S&P Annual Dividend Rate NA Annual Dividend Yield NA COMPANY DESCRIPTION The Boston Beer Company, Inc. produces and sells alcohol beverages in the United States, Canada, Europe, Israel, Australia, New Zealand, the Caribbean, the Pacific Rim, Mexico, and Central and South America. The company sells approximately 60 beers under the Samuel Adams or the Sam Adams brands; 11 flavored malt beverages under the Twisted Tea brand; and 10 hard cider beverages under the brand Angry Orchard, as well as approximately 20 beers under other brand names. It markets its products to a network of approximately 350 wholesalers, who in turn sell to retailers, such as pubs, restaurants, grocery stores, convenience stores, package stores, stadiums, and other retail outlets. The Boston Beer Company, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is based in Boston, Massachusetts. BOSTON BEER INC One Design Center Place, Suite 850 Boston, MA 02210 USA Phone: 617-368-5000 http://www.bostonbeer.com Beta 0.81 Market Capitalization $1.8 Billion 52-Week Range $160.84-$282.62 Price as of 2/25/2016 $191.92 STOCK-AT-A-GLANCE Below is a summary of the major fundamental and technical factors we consider when determining our overall recommendation of SAM shares. It is provided in order to give you a deeper understanding of our rating methodology as well as to paint a more complete picture of a stock's strengths and weaknesses. It is important to note, however, that these factors only tell part of the story. To gain an even more comprehensive understanding of our stance on the stock, these factors must be assessed in combination with the stock’s valuation. Please refer to our Valuation section on page 5 for further information. FACTOR SCORE 4.5 Growth out of 5 stars weak Measures the growth of both the company's income statement and cash flow. On this factor, SAM has a growth score better than 80% of the stocks we rate. strong 2.5 Total Return out of 5 stars weak Measures the historical price movement of the stock. The stock performance of this company has beaten 40% of the companies we cover. strong 5.0 Efficiency out of 5 stars weak Measures the strength and historic growth of a company's return on invested capital. The company has generated more income per dollar of capital than 90% of the companies we review. strong 2.5 Price volatility out of 5 stars weak Measures the volatility of the company's stock price historically. The stock is less volatile than 40% of the stocks we monitor. strong 5.0 Solvency out of 5 stars weak Measures the solvency of the company based on several ratios. The company is more solvent than 90% of the companies we analyze. strong 0.5 Income out of 5 stars weak Measures dividend yield and payouts to shareholders. This company pays no dividends. strong THESTREET RATINGS RESEARCH METHODOLOGY TheStreet Ratings' stock model projects a stock's total return potential over a 12-month period including both price appreciation and dividends. Our Buy, Hold or Sell ratings designate how we expect these stocks to perform against a general benchmark of the equities market and interest rates. While our model is quantitative, it utilizes both subjective and objective elements. For instance, subjective elements include expected equities market returns, future interest rates, implied industry outlook and forecasted company earnings. Objective elements include volatility of past operating revenues, financial strength, and company cash flows. Our model gauges the relationship between risk and reward in several ways, including: the pricing drawdown as compared to potential profit volatility, i.e.how much one is willing to risk in order to earn profits; the level of acceptable volatility for highly performing stocks; the current valuation as compared to projected earnings growth; and the financial strength of the underlying company as compared to its stock's valuation as compared to projected earnings growth; and the financial strength of the underlying company as compared to its stock's performance. These and many more derived observations are then combined, ranked, weighted, and scenario-tested to create a more complete analysis. The result is a systematic and disciplined method of selecting stocks. This report is for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Neither TheStreet Ratings nor any other party guarantees its accuracy or makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Redistribution is prohibited without the express written consent of TheStreet Ratings. Copyright(c) 2006-2015. All rights reserved. Report Date: February 28, 2016 PAGE 3 February 28, 2016 NYSE: SAM BOSTON BEER INC Sector: Consumer Non-Discretionary Brewers Source: S&P Annual Dividend Rate NA Annual Dividend Yield NA Consensus EPS Estimates² ($) IBES consensus estimates are provided by Thomson Financial 0.95 Q1 FY16 7.81 E 8.37 E 2016(E) 2017(E) Beta 0.81 Market Capitalization $1.8 Billion 52-Week Range $160.84-$282.62 Price as of 2/25/2016 $191.92 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS BOSTON BEER INC's gross profit margin for the fourth quarter of its fiscal year 2015 is essentially unchanged when compared to the same period a year ago. Sales and net income have dropped, however the growth has outpaced the average competitor within the industry. BOSTON BEER INC has average liquidity. Currently, the Quick Ratio is 1.37 which shows that technically this company has the ability to cover short-term cash needs. The company's liquidity has increased from the same period last year. During the same period, stockholders' equity ("net worth") has increased by 5.75% from the same quarter last year. Together, the key liquidity measurements indicate that it is relatively unlikely that the company will face financial difficulties in the near future. STOCKS TO BUY: TheStreet Quant Ratings has identified a handful of stocks that can potentially TRIPLE in the next 12-months. To learn more visit www.TheStreetRatings.com. INCOME STATEMENT Net Sales ($mil) EBITDA ($mil) EBIT ($mil) Net Income ($mil) Q4 FY15 215.13 37.68 26.38 16.12 Q4 FY14 217.82 42.38 32.24 19.07 Q4 FY15 94.19 645.40 0.53 461.22 Q4 FY14 76.40 605.16 0.58 436.14 Q4 FY15 55.81% 17.51% 12.26% 1.49 15.24% 21.33% Q4 FY14 54.43% 19.45% 14.80% 1.49 14.99% 20.80% Q4 FY15 2.01 0.00 NA NA Q4 FY14 1.88 0.00 NA NA Q4 FY15 13 0.00 1.21 36.16 NA 179,692 Q4 FY14 13 0.00 1.40 33.37 NA 150,686 BALANCE SHEET Cash & Equiv. ($mil) Total Assets ($mil) Total Debt ($mil) Equity ($mil) PROFITABILITY Gross Profit Margin EBITDA Margin Operating Margin Sales Turnover Return on Assets Return on Equity DEBT Current Ratio Debt/Capital Interest Expense Interest Coverage SHARE DATA Shares outstanding (mil) Div / share EPS Book value / share Institutional Own % Avg Daily Volume 2 Sum of quarterly figures may not match annual estimates due to use of median consensus estimates. This report is for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Neither TheStreet Ratings nor any other party guarantees its accuracy or makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Redistribution is prohibited without the express written consent of TheStreet Ratings. Copyright(c) 2006-2015. All rights reserved. Report Date: February 28, 2016 PAGE 4 February 28, 2016 NYSE: SAM BOSTON BEER INC Sector: Consumer Non-Discretionary Brewers Source: S&P Annual Dividend Rate NA Annual Dividend Yield NA Beta 0.81 Market Capitalization $1.8 Billion 52-Week Range $160.84-$282.62 Price as of 2/25/2016 $191.92 VALUATION HOLD. BOSTON BEER INC's P/E ratio indicates a premium compared to an average of 26.37 for the Beverages industry and a premium compared to the S&P 500 average of 21.53. To use another comparison, its price-to-book ratio of 5.31 indicates a significant premium versus the S&P 500 average of 2.56 and a significant discount versus the industry average of 7.81. The price-to-sales ratio is well above the S&P 500 average, but well below the industry average. 2 Year Chart $350 Price/Earnings $300 SAM 26.51 Peers 26.37 • Average. An average P/E ratio can signify an industry neutral price for a stock and an average growth expectation. • SAM is trading at a valuation on par with its peers. HOLD: $180.23 BUY: $235.18 RATINGS HISTORY Our rating for BOSTON BEER INC was recently downgraded from Buy to Hold on 2/3/2016. As of 2/25/2016, the stock was trading at a price of $191.92 which is 32.1% below its 52-week high of $282.62 and 19.3% above its 52-week low of $160.84. $250 $200 2014 2015 1 2 3 premium Price/Projected Earnings 1 2 From Buy Buy To Hold Buy 5 3 4 5 SAM 22.93 Peers 23.25 • Average. An average price-to-projected earnings ratio can signify an industry neutral stock price and average future growth expectations. • SAM is trading at a valuation on par with its peers. Price/Book (as of 2/25/2016) 32.19% Buy - We believe that this stock has the opportunity to appreciate and produce a total return of more than 10% over the next 12 months. 35.29% Hold - We do not believe this stock offers conclusive evidence to warrant the purchase or sale of shares at this time and that its likelihood of positive total return is roughly in balance with the risk of loss. 32.52% Sell - We believe that this stock is likely to decline by more than 10% over the next 12 months, with the risk involved too great to compensate for any possible returns. 1 2 3 premium 4 5 Price/Sales 1 2 premium 3 4 5 Price to Earnings/Growth 4 5 discount 1 2 3 premium 4 5 discount SAM 3.43 Peers 1.67 • Premium. The PEG ratio is the stock’s P/E divided by the consensus estimate of long-term earnings growth. Faster growth can justify higher price multiples. • SAM trades at a significant premium to its peers. Earnings Growth 1 2 3 4 lower 5 higher SAM 8.22 Peers -3.10 • Higher. Elevated earnings growth rates can lead to capital appreciation and justify higher price-to-earnings ratios. • SAM is expected to have an earnings growth rate that significantly exceeds its peers. Sales Growth discount SAM 2.55 Peers 4.15 • Discount. In the absence of P/E and P/B multiples, the price-to-sales ratio can display the value investors are placing on each dollar of sales. • SAM is trading at a significant discount to its industry on this measurement. 3 SAM 14.51 Peers 18.03 • Discount. The P/CF ratio, a stock’s price divided by the company's cash flow from operations, is useful for comparing companies with different capital requirements or financing structures. • SAM is trading at a discount to its peers. discount SAM 5.31 Peers 7.81 • Discount. A lower price-to-book ratio makes a stock more attractive to investors seeking stocks with lower market values per dollar of equity on the balance sheet. • SAM is trading at a significant discount to its peers. 2 premium discount Price reflects the closing price as of the date listed, if available RATINGS DEFINITIONS & DISTRIBUTION OF THESTREET RATINGS 1 Price/CashFlow discount premium MOST RECENT RATINGS CHANGES Date Price Action 2/3/16 $180.23 Downgrade 2/25/14 $235.18 No Change 4 1 2 3 lower 4 5 higher SAM 6.30 Peers -4.21 • Higher. A sales growth rate that exceeds the industry implies that a company is gaining market share. • SAM has a sales growth rate that significantly exceeds its peers. 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None of the information contained in this report constitutes, or is intended to constitute a recommendation by TheStreet Ratings of any particular security or trading strategy or a determination by TheStreet Ratings that any security or trading strategy is suitable for any specific person. To the extent any of the information contained herein may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. Your use of this report is governed by TheStreet, Inc.'s Terms of Use found at http://www.thestreet.com/static/about/terms-of-use.html. This report is for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Neither TheStreet Ratings nor any other party guarantees its accuracy or makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Redistribution is prohibited without the express written consent of TheStreet Ratings. Copyright(c) 2006-2015. All rights reserved. Report Date: February 28, 2016 PAGE 5