TOTAL LIFE ANALYSIS, MODELLING AND FORECASTING OF
REAL ESTATE SECTOR IN LITHUANIA
Prof. E. K. Zavadskas, Prof. A. Kaklauskas, Dr. A. Banaitis, A. Bagdonavicius, M.Gikys
Department of Construction Technology and Management, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University,
Sauletekio al. 11, LT-2040 Vilnius, Lithuania, e-mail: property@st.vtu.lt
Abstract. The model of efficient real estate sector suggested by this research is based on presumption
that efficiency of real estate sector depends on many macro and microlevel variables. The presence of
specific macro and microlevel variable factors right away imposes objective limitations for efficient
activities of real estate sector. The real estate sector, in presence of these objective limitations, tries to
perform its functions in their bounds with utmost efficiency. The research aim is to produce a model of
the rational real estate sector in Lithuania by undertaking a complex analysis of micro and macro
environment factors affecting it and to give recommendations on the increase of its competitive
ability. In order to demonstrate the application of the above research to developing model of efficient
real estate sector a selection of rational housing investment instruments and lenders will be considered
in paper as a sample.
Keywords: real estate sector, micro and macrolevel factors, conceptual and quantitative information,
multiple criteria analysis, model.
1. MAIN STAGES OF WORKING OUT A MODEL OF LITHUANIAN REAL
ESTATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT
The research aim was to develope a rational real estate sector model for Lithuania by undertaking
a complex analysis of micro and macrolevel (legislation, taxes (tax bracket, tax deduction, tax
deferred, etc.), liquid secondary market, market transparency, professional bodies, lending institutions,
real estate finance, mortgage, the techniques of selling property (sale-leaseback, lease with option to
buy, etc.), insurance, information technology, education, valuer’s liability, valuer’s fee levels,
contracts, investment instruments, housing subsidy system, credit access (use of low interest loans,
waivers of closing costs, government and private mortgage insurance, reduced down payments, sweat
equity, flexible debt-to-income ratios, lease-purchase arrangements, deferred second mortgage), etc.)
variables affecting it as well as giving recommendations on the increase of it efficiency. The research
was performed by studying the expertise of advanced industrial economies and by adapting it for
Lithuania. Simulation was undertaken to provide insight into creating an effective real estate sector
environment.
To be efficient the real estate sector must operate within certain boundaries imposed by the micro
and macrolevel factors. It is necessary to utilise knowledge and experience concerning the real estate
practices, so as to increase the efficiency of real estate sector environment in the country under
consideration. This may be achieved by analysing the experience and knowledge of the advanced
industrial economies and applying them to Lithuania.
While much advice has come from Western countries, little exchange of information and
experience has gone on among countries in transition to learn about how others are tackling almost
identical problems. Admittedly, there are successful models in developed market countries. However,
there is no single universal model, but a variety of good solutions for different problems in different
countries.
Having investigated the effects of the variables affecting real estate sector in advanced industrial
economies, some differences have been identified between these countries and Lithuania. On the basis
of these differences, the main implications for Lithuania can be identified. The study of only one
advanced industrial economy could lead to any inferences being purely subjective. However, by
studying a number of countries any bias can be diminished. In other words, the presence of specific
variable micro and macrolevel factors immediately imposes objective limitations on the efficient
activities of interested parties. Interested parties, in the presence of these objective limitations, try to
perform their activities in a more rational way.
Based on the above considerations, it is possible to propose a model of an efficient real estate
sector on the basis of the performed search for rational variable micro and macrolevel factors for
Lithuania. Upon completion of such a model, the interested parties will be able to use their financial
resources in a more rational manner by taking into consideration existing limitations and existing
possibilities of real estate sector environment.
The research included the following stages presented in Figure 1.
Determination and description of micro and macrolevel factors affecting the efficiency of real estate sector
Conceptual description of existing situation of real estate sector in Lithuania, countries in transition and
advanced industrial economies. Development of conceptual data base of micro and macrolevel factors
Quantitative description of existing situation of real estate sector in Lithuania, countries in transition and
advanced industrial economies. Development of quantitative data base of micro and macrolevel factors
Determination of common regular features of development trends of real estate sector in advanced industrial
economies
Determination of rational micro and macrolevel factors
Working out a model of Lithuanian real estate sector development trends. Upon completion of such a model,
the interested parties, by taking into consideration existing limitations and existing possibilities of real estate
sector environment, will be able to use their financial resources in a more rational manner.
Fig. 1. Main stages of working out a model of Lithuanian real estate sector development trends
In order to throw more light on the subject, further follows more detailed description of some
above mentioned stages of analysis:
- development of a conceptual and quantitative description of real estate sector,
- determining rational housing investment instruments and lenders.
2. CONCEPTUAL AND QUANTITATIVE DESCRIPTION OF REAL ESTATE
SECTOR
In order to find the most efficient real estate sector environment for a particular country it
exhaustive conceptual and quantitative description should be made. Quantitative and conceptual
description provides the information about various aspects (i.e. economical, technical, infrastructural,
qualitative, legal, institutional, management, social ones, etc.) of real estate sector. The data of this
quantitative and conceptual analysis are used in identifying real estate sector development trends in
Western Europe and USA as well as providing some recommendations for Lithuania.
Conceptual description of real estate sector presents textual, graphical (schemes, diagrams, etc.),
numerical,visual (videotapes) information and the criteria used for their definition, as well as giving
the reason for the choice of this particular system of criteria, their values and significances.
Conceptual information is needed to make more complete and accurate evaluation of the alternatives
considered. It also helps to get more useful information as well as developing a system and subsystems
of criteria and defining their values and significances.
The development of a real estate sector conceptual description for Lithuania was done by means
of an analysis of experience and knowledge of advanced industrial economies and by their adaptation
to Lithuania. To illustrate the real estate sector conceptual description a sample problem solution
based on this approach is given in Table 1. In the research, different versions of advanced industrial
economies practical experiences and policies in the field of real estate sector were analysed. Initially
the determination of micro and macrolevel factors describing the real estate sector was made. Then the
existing situation of real estate sector in Lithuania and advanced industrial economies was described in
conceptual form. Subsequently followed the determination of development trends (general
regularities) of the real estate sector in advanced industrial economies and their differences from those
of Lithuania.
Conceptual analysis of major trends in advanced industrial economies helped to create a model
reflecting the trends of Lithuanian real estate sector development. It should be noted, however, that the
choice of an actual trend of development in Lithuania is highly dependent on the actual situation. For
example, since Lithuania economy is transferring from planned development to the conditions of a
free market, it is quite natural that the economic, social and legislative situation in Lithuania and
advanced industrial economies is different. Therefore, while working out a model of Lithuanian real
estate sector development were considered taking into account actual economic, social, legislative,
political and technological situation in Lithuania.
Table 1. Sample of conceptual description of real estate sector
The efficiency
of Lithuanian
real estate
sector can be
increased
through the
use of:
Trends of development (general regularities) in Western Europe and USA [5, 6, 7, 8, 9]
A fragment
illustrating the
development
of rational real
estate sector
for Lithuania
Broker
The broker hires and supervises the activities of real estate agents licensed to him or her,
maintains a trust fund for escrow moneys deposited to blind sales contracts, collects all
commissions earned by the agency, and pays his/her agents in accordance with the broker/agent
agreement. A broker is fully responsible for the action of all agents licensed to him/her. Brokers
are those who have been certified and licensed by their state as competent
to employ and supervise real estate salespeople and operate a real estate business.
They may or may not be a member of a national, state and local boards of Realtors. Members
who have been awarded the Realtors designation are certified after completion of a number of
advanced management courses and the completion of a minimum number of years as an active
broker. The Realtors designation is awarded by the local chapter after examination by a
committee of the broker's peers.
Improvement
of brokers
system
Loan broker
A loan broker is an organization or person who specializes in arranging loans from his/her
client-lenders to qualified borrowers. Broker fees are generally paid by the borrower. Loan
brokers may or may not service the loan on behalf of the lender. Residential loans are often
handled by mortgage bankers or brokers, who have access to funds of insurance companies and
pension plans. Loan brokers usually act as agents for lenders. Their fees (say 1% of the loan
amount) are paid by the borrower when the application is made. That fee is earned at the point
the broker provides a firm mortgage commitment from the actual lender. Most often the broker
also handles the paperwork involved in processing the mortgage and property transfer.
Development
of loan
brokers
system
Bartering
Bartering is a method of obtaining desired properties in exchange for other properties or
services, without the expenditure of significant amounts of money. This provision allows the
effective sale of a property with large capital gains while delaying taxes on those gains. When
investment property is traded, the gains in the old property reduce the base cost of the new
property. Thus taxes will not have to be paid until the new property is sold.
Development
of bartering
system
Sale and
buyback
A provision of a sale which states that the seller can repurchase the property at the
end of the lease. The problem with such an arrangement is the setting of the purchase price at the
end of the lease. If the purchase price is less than fair market value, the Internal Revenue Service
will probably declare that no actual sale was made. All rents paid will be disallowed as income
and considered as interest paid on a loan. Deductions normally incident to ownership, such as
taxes and maintenance, will be disallowed.
Development
of sale and
buyback
system
Sale and
leaseback
The sale of a property with the simultaneous leasing back of the facility by the seller. The past
owner becomes a tenant, and the buyer assumes the role of landlord. The sale and leaseback
arrangement can be a good deal for both parties. The strategy is employed by owners of property
who desire capital, but continue to need the facility. The sale is also good for the buyer. Where
the tenant-seller is a good risk, the buyer can usually obtain or assume a low interest loan based
on the tenant's credit rating and by virtue of the long-term lease which has been executed. There
are some risks to the buyer attendant to this type of arrangement.
Development
of sale and
leaseback
system
Leaseback
A leaseback is a contractual agreement for the purchase of a real property with a
provision for leasing it back to the seller. Leasebacks are often used by corporations as a means
of financial restructuring by simultaneously: (1) reducing debt; and (2) obtaining much needed
cash. The procedure may also prove to be a tax advantage to the seller, as the larger lease fees
are an increased expense of doing business versus the smaller deduction of mortgage interest,
maintenance, and depreciation.
Development
of leaseback
system
Lease with
option to buy
Lease with option to buy an agreement under which an eventual sales price is agreed to as part
of a lease. The lessee has the option, at the expiration of the lease period, to purchase the
property. This arrangement may include an additional payment, to be applied against a down
payment on the property. Or it may be used as an incentive to tie a tenant into a lease, without
requiring payments as part of the monthly agreement.
Development
of lease with
option to buy
system
…
…
…
Reverse
mortgage
A reverse mortgage is a relatively modern technique of removing equity from a property in the
form of an annuity. Many property owners reach a period in life in which they would like to
obtain some of the equity in their property without selling it. An equity loan would be an
alternative but would probably require monthly payments, which defeat the purpose of the loan.
The amount of the monthly payment will be based on a percentage of the appraised value of the
property and the going FHA interest rate. In effect, the loan is an annuity based on the
borrower's age and the other factors. Reverse mortgage loans are repaid after the death of the
mortgagor or sale of the property, whichever comes first. Some private organizations and local
governments are also experimenting with reverse mortgage loans.
Development
of reverse
mortgage
system
Contracts
The most common types of contracts encountered by the real estate investor are: the earnest
money receipt and offer to purchase; the earneest money receipt and exchange agreement; the
earnest money receipt and offer to lease; the lease; the option agreement; uniform real estate
contract (land contract); assignment of contract; and the sales agency contract—property listing
for sale.
Improvement
of contracts
system
Property
management
The effort required to advertise, show, lease, collect rents, maintain, and regulate
the use of a property is called property management. Commercial property can be controlled
successfully from off-site with occasional owner visits to ascertain the condition of the property.
Warehousing and manufacturing buildings are by far the easiest to manage, particularly where
net leases are in force. Management involves more than interface with tenants and the structures
which are rented. Bills must be paid on a regular basis, mortgage payments mailed on schedule,
and future replacements and repairs planned. If successfully operated, the property should throw
off a cash flow, which must be invested promptly and profitably.
Improvement
of property
management
system
Insurance
Insurance is a contract for protection against a loss, which the insured is unable to
protect him or herself. Owners of real property will find the need for several types of insurance.
These are: Title Insurance —This protects a buyer from any unknown defects in title, which are
discovered at a later date. Hazard Insurance — These may be combination or separate policies
and usually cover protection from real and personal property losses due to acts of God. Flood
insurance is available in some areas, but is always sold as a separate policy. Liability Insurance
— These may be combination or separate policies. Liability coverage protects the owner against
judgments for the injury to others on the insured’s property. Theft Insurance — This protects the
owner from losses due to theft or mysterious disappearances. Partnership Life Insurance —
These are two or more policies made payable to partners, other than the insured. The purpose of
these policies is to provide ready cash to exercise a buy/sell agreement executed by the partners.
Improvement
of insurance
system
Sweat equity
Work performed in lieu of a cash downpayment. Sweat equity is a good method of obtaining the
required down payment for purchase of property. It is more common in the purchase of lowincome housing, but it is also appropriate for larger and more expensive properties which require
repair or modernization to qualify for a mortgage loan. Tasks generally performed as sweat
equity are those requiring lower levels of building or contractor skills, but they are actually
limited only by the buyer's ability. They include the following: exterior and interior painting,
landscaping, paper hanging, preocccupancy clean-up, floor finishing, screen installation, lawn
sprinkler installation, and trash and debris removal.
Development
of sweat
equity system
Closing costs
Closing costs are those paid by buyers and sellers which are attributable to the transfer of real
property. Some of the costs often paid by the seller are: realtor fees, title policy premium for
policy to buyer, points paid to a lender to grant a loan, property and other taxes to date of
transfer, one half of the escrow fees to the closing agency; and certain recording fees. Some of
the costs often collected from the buyer at closing are: mortgage origination fees, one to two
months taxes in advance, cost of one-year insurance policy, one to two months' insurance in
advance, title policy premium for policy to mortgagee, one-half of the escrow fees to the closing
agency, certain recording fees; and appraisal fees.
Improvement
of closing
costs system
Security
deposit
This term refers to a deposit made with a landlord to guarantee that his or her property will be
returned at the end of the lease period in acceptable condition. Most apartment owners require
certain deposits from the tenant prior to occupancy. These may include: first and last months
rent in advance; a cleaning deposit to be forfeited if the property is not left in an acceptable
condition; and a security deposit to cover damage to the property or equipment over and above
normal wear and tear. The kind and size of required deposits are determined by the marketplace.
Obviously, property owners would like to have all of the aforementioned deposits and in
large amounts, but the public will object to unreasonable or uncustomary require ments. Thus,
the requirements are reduced to what the market will bear. Most renters expect to pay at least
one month's rent in advance and to make a reasonable cleaning deposit.
Improvement
of security
deposit system
Performance
bond
A performance bond is posted by a contractor, property owner, or developer to assure
the timely and proficient completion of a contractual commitment and payment of all
contractors and subcontractors. This is sometimes referred to as a completion bond. A developer
is wise to require a completion bond of his or her contractor. This will assure the completion of
the project, in accordance with the contract, even if the contractor should go broke in the
process.
Improvement
of
performance
bond system
Tax deduction
A real estate investor can claim deductions for property taxes, mortgage interest, advertising,
maintenance, insurance, and other usual expenses.
Improvement
of tax
deduction
system
A quantitative information is made by using the conceptual information presented. Quantitative
information is based on the criteria systems and subsystems, units of measure, values and initial
significances. The determination of the utility degree of the micro and macrolevel factors under
investigation and establishment of the priority order for its implementation does not present much
difficulty if the criteria numerical values and significances are obtained and the multiple criteria
decision making methods are used.
The process of determining the system of criteria, qualitative criteria initial significances and
numerical values of the micro and macrolevel factors under investigation is based on the use of
various literature sources, research investigations, expert methods, www, etc. The magnitude of
significance indicates how many times one criterion is more/less significant than the other in a
multiple criteria evaluation of micro and macrolevel factors. The results of the comparative analysis of
the micro and macrolevel factors are presented as a grouped decision making matrix where columns
contain n alternative micro and macrolevel factors being considered, while all quantitative information
pertaining to them is found in m lines.
The above comparative conceptual and quantitative analysis of real estate in developed countries
and Lithuania allowed us to identify areas where the situation in Lithuania is comparable, partly
comparable with or quite different from the level attained by advanced industrial economies. The data
of this conceptual and quantitative analysis were used in identifying real estate sector development
trends in Western Europe and USA as well as providing some recommendations for Lithuania.
In order to give a full assessment of the influence of the micro and macrolevel factors (legislation,
taxes (tax bracket, tax deduction, tax deferred, etc.), liquid secondary market, market transparency,
professional bodies, lending institutions, real estate finance, mortgage, the techniques of selling
property (sale-leaseback, lease with option to buy, etc.), insurance, information technology, education,
valuer’s liability, valuer’s fee levels, contracts, investment instruments, housing subsidy system, credit
access (use of low interest loans, waivers of closing costs, government and private mortgage
insurance, reduced down payments, sweat equity, flexible debt-to-income ratios, lease-purchase
arrangements, deferred second mortgage), etc.) in influencing the total efficiency of a real estate
sector, it is necessary to analyse them in more detail in conceptual and quantitative forms. In order to
demonstrate the application of the above techniques to developing of a rational real estate sector
conceptual and quantitative models for Lithuania a determination of rational housing investment
instruments and lenders will be considered below as a sample.
3. DETERMINING RATIONAL HOUSING INVESTMENT INSTRUMENTS
AND LENDERS
Medium and long-term credits are used for housing investment. It is known that various factors and
interested parties have a certain impact on the efficiency of the alternative housing investment
instruments.
3.1. Various factors and interested parties affecting the efficiency of housing investment
instruments
A great number of effective housing investment instruments have been developed and successfully
used in the advanced industrial economies. They are as follows:
 Fixed-Rate Mortgage,
 Alternative Mortgage Instruments,
 Low-Income Housing Tax Credits,
 Mortgage Credit Certificates,
 Mortgage Pass-Through Securities,
 Housing Bonds,
 Housing Trust Funds,
 Mortgage Revenue Bonds, etc.
The economic, legislative, political, social, technical and cultural situation is not the same in
various countries. There is also a diversity of traditions. Market economy has been developed to
various extent as well. This means that often the efforts to introduce housing investment instruments
which proved to be efficient in some countries into the economy of some other state do not succeed. In
other words, the same housing investment instruments when applied to various economies yield
various results as far as efficiency is concerned. It is known that researchers and practicians use
diverse criteria when analysing the efficiency of housing investment instruments. Basing oneself on
their expertise the efficiency of housing investment instruments may be approaches with account of
the following issues:
 compatibility of an investment instrument with a market system available (the perspective of its
development or expansion);
 the availability of parties interested in using an instrument and capable of doing it;
 compatibility of an investment instrument with a legislative system of the state;
 interest rate,
 period of maturity,
 down payments,
 subsidies,
 sweat equity,
 loan-to-value ratios,
 using,
 administration,
 marketability,
 loan repayment and payment of interest,
 risk and guarantee,
 source of the financial means,
 waivers of closing costs,
 delinquency on loan, etc.
Efficiency of housing investment instruments also depends from interested parties such as
homeowners, State government, local government, financial institutions, landlords, builders and
developers, speculators, real estate agents.
Compatibility of an investment instrument with a market system available; the availability of parties
interested in using an instrument and capable of doing it; compatibility of an investment instrument with
a legislative system of the state; interest rate, period of maturity, down payments, subsidies, sweat
equity, loan-to-value ratios, using, administration, marketability, loan repayment and payment of
interest, risk and guarantee, source of the financial means, waivers of closing costs, delinquency on loan,
etc.
Fixed-Rate Mortgage
…
Mortgage Credit
Certificates
Housing Bonds
Alternative Mortgage
Instruments
…
Mortgage Pass-Through
Securities
?
…
Housing Trust Funds
Low-Income Housing Tax
Credits
…
Mortgage Revenue
Bonds
Interested parties affecting the efficiency of an investavimo instrumento: homeowners, State
government, local government, financial institutions, landlords, Builders and developers, speculators,
real estate agents
Figure 2. Some factors and interested parties affecting the efficiency of housing investment instruments
3.2. Development of quantitative and conceptual data bases of housing investment
instruments
In order to find the most efficient housing investment instruments for a particular country their
exhaustive conceptual and quantitative description should be made. Then the data obtained should be
subject to multiple criteria analysis helping to choose the most rational variants.
Conceptual description of an investment instrument life cycle presents textual, graphical,
numerical, mathematical and other forms of information on the investment instruments and the criteria
used for their definition, as well as giving the reason for the choice of this particular system of criteria,
their values and significances. Conceptual information is needed to make a complete and accurate
evaluation of the alternatives considered. It also helps to get more useful information as well as
developing a system and subsystems of criteria and defining their values and significances. Figure 3
illustrates the development of a conceptual data base fragment containing the information on housing
investment instruments.
Quantitative information is based on the criteria systems and subsystems, units of measure, values
and initial significances. The determination of the utility degree and value of the investment
instruments under investigation and establishment of the priority order for its implementation does not
present much difficulty if the criteria numerical values and significances are obtained and the multiple
criteria decision making methods are used. The process of determining the system of criteria,
qualitative criteria initial significances and numerical values of the investment instruments under
investigation is based on the use of various expert methods, www, etc. Quantitative criteria numerical
values are obtained by analysing the data on investment instruments, different documents, www, etc.
The magnitude of significance indicates how many times one criterion is more/less significant than the
other in a multiple criteria evaluation of investment instruments. The results of the comparative
analysis of the investment instruments are presented as a grouped decision making matrix where
columns contain n alternative investment instruments being considered, while all quantitative
information pertaining to them is found in m lines.
Housing Trust Funds. Housing trust
funds are distinct accounts, typically
established by city, county, or state
governments, with dedicated ongoing
revenue committed exclusively to
support housing affordable to lowerincome households.
Criteria describing Signi- Measuthe investment
ficance
ring
instruments
units
Interest rate
Period of maturity
...
Down payments
...
Loan repayment
and payment of
interest
Source of the
financial means
Using
...
Risk and guarantee
...
Delinquency on
Loan
…
Low-Income Housing Tax
Credits. Low-Income Housing
Tax Credits are provided
through the tax code to
investors in the construction
and rehabilitation of lowincome rental housing.
Alternative investment instruments
a1
a2
…
aj
…
an
x 12
x 22
...
x i2
...
x t2
…
…
…
…
…
…
x 1j
x 2j
...
x ij
...
x tj
…
…
…
…
…
…
x 1n
x 2n
...
x in
...
x tn
q1
q2
...
qi
...
qt
m1
m2
...
mi
...
mt
x 11
x 21
...
x i1
...
x t1
q t+1
m t+1
x t+1 1
x t+1 2 … x t+1 j … x t+1 n
q t+2
...
qI
...
qm
m t+2
...
mi
...
mm
x t+2 1
...
x i1
...
x m1
x t+2 2
...
x i2
...
x m2
… x t+2 j
… ...
… x ij
… ...
… x mj
… x t+2 n
… ...
… x in
… ...
… x mn
The key characteristic of
a housing trust fund is
that it receives ongoing
revenues from dedicated
sources of funding, such
as property taxes, sale of
county-owned land, fees,
loan repayments, etc.
The program provides a 10-year tax credit to
loan investors for eligible loans in which
units are set aside for at least 15 years of use
by low-income households. A developer can
use tax credits for many types of low-income
rental housing, including constructing new
… units, rehabilitating units he or she already
owns, and acquiring and rehabilitating
existing properties.
Figure 3. A fragment of developing housing investment instruments conceptual data base
Table 2. A fragment of developing housing investment instruments quantitative data base
Criteria describing Signi- Measuthe investment
ficance
ring
instruments
units
Interest rate
q1
m1
Period of maturity
q2
m2
...
...
...
Down payments
qi
mI
...
...
...
Loan repayment
qt
mt
and payment of
interest
Source of the
q t+1
m t+1
financial means
Using
q t+2
m t+2
...
...
...
Risk and guarantee
qI
mI
...
...
...
Delinquency on
qm
mm
Loan
Utility degree of alternatives
Priority of investment instruments
Compared investment instruments
a1
a2
…
aj
…
an
x 11
x 21
...
x i1
...
x t1
x 12
x 22
...
x i2
...
x t2
…
…
…
…
…
…
x 1j
x 2j
...
x ij
...
x tj
…
…
…
…
…
…
x 1n
x 2n
...
x in
...
x tn
x t+1 1
x t+1 2 … x t+1 j … x t+1 n
x t+2 1
...
x i1
...
x m1
x t+2 2
...
x i2
...
x m2
N1
Q1
N2
Q2
… x t+2 j
… ...
… x ij
… ...
… x mj
… x t+2 n
… ...
… x in
… ...
… x mn
…
…
…
Nj
Qj
…
Nn
Qn
3.3. Searching for rational housing investment instruments and lenders
The quantitative and conceptual data bases which are being developed now give an exhaustive
description of housing investment instruments allowing for their multiple criteria analysis. This, in
turn, helps to determine the investment instruments efficient for the country in question. Moreover, the
data bases and multiple criteria analysis offered could be used in searching for efficient lenders.
Since the efficiency of alternatives of a housing investment instrument and lender is determined
taking into account a lot of different information a multiple criteria analysis should include methods
enabling a decision maker to implement a comprehensive analysis of the variants leading to and make
a proper choice. The following methods are aimed to perform this function:
 a method for determining the initial significances of the criteria (with the use of expert methods),
 a method for the criteria significance establishment,
 a method for multiple criteria analysis and setting the priorities,
 a method for determining of alternatives utility degree,
 a method for providing recommendations.
When a certain method (i.e. determining the initial significances of the criteria) is used the results
of the calculations obtained become the initial data for other method (i.e. a method for multiple criteria
analysis and setting the priorities), while the results of the latter, in turn, may be taken as the initial
data for some other methods (i.e. determining housing investment instrument (lender) utility degree
and providing recommendations).
For example, the utility degree of investigated alternative investment instruments and lender
determined by using the proposed method [4] of complex evaluation of alternatives. This method
assumes direct and proportional dependence of utility degree of investigated alternatives on a system
of criteria adequately describing the alternatives and on values and significances of the criteria. The
system of criteria is determined and the values and initial significances of criteria are calculated by
experts. All this information can be corrected by interested parties taking into consideration their
pursued goals and existing financial capabilities. Hence, the assessment results of alternatives fully
reflect the initial data jointly submitted by experts and interested parties.
4. MULTIPLE CRITERIA ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE LOANS
4.1. Sample problem solution
To illustrate the efficiency of the model suggested a sample problem solution based on this
approach will be given below. But first a study case will be generally described and the problem
formulated.
The family of 3 persons would like to obtain a mortgage loan for purchasing a 2 – room apartment.
An approximate value the housing to be bought is 96 thousand Litas – 104 thousand Litas. The amount
of the loan is 80 thousand Litas. The net family income per month is 3,2 thousand Litas. The maturity
of the loan – 10 years. 1 US dollar = 4 Litas.
The alternative variants of mortgage loans for housing purchasing may be assessed based on the
following criteria: net income of the family per month (minus taxes); maximum maturity of the loan;
average instalments per month; interest rate on the loan; hypothecation bond registration fee; a one-off
loan administration fee; life insurance costs; costs of insurance of the real estate to be mortgaged;
general terms of the loan; initial payment; repayment of the loan, loan registration; commission for
anticipatory loan repayment; currency exchange commission.
Now let us consider the terms of mortgage loans issuing by three financial institutions: the Baltic
and US Business Fund, Vilnius Bank and “Hermis” Bank taking into account the following
perspectives. This will be illustrated using Vilnius Bank as an example.
Vilnius Bank. Net income of the family per month. Net monthly family income per capita (without
loan instalment and interest rate payments) should not be less than 5 hundred Litas. In this case, an
average amount of loan repayment and interest rates makes 1,1 thousand Litas, i. e. 7 hundred Litas
per capita. Maximum maturity of the loan. Maximum maturity of the loan is 10 years. An average loan
instalment per month. When the amount of the loan is 80 thousand Litas the average loan instalment
and interest rate payments make 1,1 thousand Litas. Loan interest rates. The annual interest rate on
loans, having estimated the maturity and the exposure of the loan, fluctuate from 9 per cent to 11 per
cent. This year the interest rate on loans issued for 10 years has been 10,2 per cent. Hypothecation
bond fee. In order to secure the liabilities under the loan agreement the bank accepts mortgage in form
of the housing to be purchased. Hypothecation bond registration fee which should be taken into
account is 50 Litas. Hypothecation and notarisation fees make about 0,5 per cent of the mortgaged
housing value. In this case, the amount of mortgage fee is 450 Litas. A one – off loan administration
fee. In the case considered a one – off loan administration fee makes 400 Litas (0,5 per cent of the loan
amount). Life insurance. The borrower’s life insurance is obtained in favour of the bank for the entire
maturity of the loan with an insurance company acceptable to the bank. In our case, this will make 240
Litas per year. Insurance of the housing to be purchased. Insurance of the housing to be purchased is
obtained in favour of the bank with an insurance company acceptable to the bank. The annual payment
amount in this case will be 260 Litas. General terms and conditions of the loan. Loans are issued to
the citizens of the Republic of Lithuania minimum 21 years of age. The mortgage loan is issued and
repaid in US dollars, which are exchanged into Litas at the official exchange rate fixed by the bank of
Lithuania for currency exchange transactions. To obtain the loan you shall open an account with the
bank where to your salary shall be transferred. The mortgage loan covers up to 70 per cent of the value
of the housing to be purchased, which is evaluated by the asset valuators of the bank. You shall obtain
a certificate from the office of Children Rights Protection in the event you have children under 18. The
consent of the housing owner’s spouse to pledge the housing notarised shall also be obtained. The
initial payment. A person to whom the loan is issued shall transfer to this bank account the amount
covering at least 30 per cent of the value of the housing to be purchased. In our case the first payment
will make 24 thousand Litas. Loan repayment. The repayment of the loan and the payment of interest
accrued shall commence on the month following the disbursement of the loan. The payment shall be
effected in equal instalments (annuity). On the month of the loan disbursement only the interest shall
be paid. The bank shall on monthly basis write the payment amount off the account to which the salary
of the borrower is transferred. The deadline of the loan repayment shall not be charged. The interest
margin changes slightly throughout the years subject to the fluctuation of London Inter-Bank Offered
Rate (LIBOR) per one US dollar. Loan registration. The borrower will have to fill in a form of
application for a loan by answering the questions presented on the nine pages of the form. The latter
refer to the borrower’s actual income, property, members of the family, etc. The borrower will be
notified of the bank’s decision to issue the loan within a week. Commission for anticipatory loan
repayment. If the loan is repair prior to the time when it is due according to the agreement the bank
will take commission for the unpaid interests (0,5 per cent of the amount repaid prior to the loan
agreement termination). In our case, the loan shall be repaid according to the agreement signed.
Commission for currency exchange. Mortgage loans are free from currency exchange transactions
fees.
The same applies to other cases investigated.
A decision–making matrix is made (see Table 3) by using the description of the conceptual
alternatives presented. The total complex significance of major criteria pertaining to the alternative
loans based on their quantitative and qualitative characteristics may be determined from the above
matrix as well as following formulas 1 and 9. The calculation results are provided in Table 3.
Calculations were made by “Microsoft Excel 97”. Computer calculates with full precision. Therefore,
the values presented here somewhat differ from those stored in the computer memory.
4.2. The complex determination of the significances of the criteria taking into account
their quantitative and qualitative characteristics
The significances of all criteria must be coordinated among themselves, taking into consideration
their quantitative and qualitative characteristics. The significances of quantitative criteria can be
exactly coordinated among themselves if the values of quantitative criteria are expressed through an
equivalent monetary unit (stages 1-4). Having performed strict mutual coordination of quantitative
criteria significances, the same is done with the significances of qualitative criteria. In this case all the
significances of qualitative and quantitative criteria are coordinated exactly at the same time.
The calculation of the criteria significances is carried out in seven stages. In the stages 1-4 the
significances of quantitative criteria are identified whereas in the stages 5-7 the significances of
qualitative criteria are identified.
Stage 1. The determination of the sum of values for every quantitative criterion:
n
S i   x , i 1,t ; j 1,n ,
j 1
ij
(1)
where xij - the value of the i-th criterion in the j-th alternative of a solution; t - the number of
quantitative criteria; n - the number of the alternatives compared.
According to expression 1 there is determined the sum of values for every criterion which can be
represented in money terms
S1 = 1148 + 1100 + 1200 = 3448;
S2 = 400 + 450 + 450 = 1300, etc.
The final results of the 1st stage are:
S1 = 3448; S2 = 1300; S3 = 1110; S4 = 480, S5 = 560; S6 = 64000; S7 = 400.
Stage 2. The total monetary expression of every quantitative criterion describing the investigated loan
is obtained by:
Pi  S i  pi , i 1,t ,
(2)
where pi - initial significance of the i criteria. pi should be measured in such a way as, being multiplied
by a quantitative criterion value, an equivalent monetary expression could be obtained.
Table 3. Significance determination of criteria, taking into account their quantitative and qualitative characteristics
*
The criteria considered
Quantitative criteria
1. Loan repayment and payment of
interest
2. Hypothecation bond registration
fee
3. A one-off loan administration fee
4. Life insurance
5. Insurance of the housing to be
purchased
6. The initial payment
7. Commission for currency exchange
Measuring
units
Numerical values of criteria of the
compared loans
Determination of
Baltic and
US Business
Fund
Vilnius
Bank
Hermis
Bank
Sum of
criteria,
Si
Initial
significances of
criteria, pi
Total
monetary
expression of
criteria, Pi
Significances of
criteria, qi
Lt/month
-
1148
1100
1200
3448
120
413760
0,8427
Lt
-
400
450
450
1300
1
1300
0,0026
Lt
Lt/year
Lt/year
-
360
0
160
400
240
200
350
240
200
1110
480
560
1
10
10
1110
4800
5600
0,0023
0,0098
0,0114
Lt
Lt
-
16000
400
24000
0
24000
0
64000
400
1
1
10
7,56
10
9,05
-
0,2536
0,3158
-
0,2468
0,3073
1
2
-
0,0136
-
0,0132
Qualitative criteria
8. Maturity of the loan
Years
+
10
9. General terms and conditions of the
Points
+
9,47
loan
10. Loan registration
Weeks
6
 - The sign ( ()) indicates that a greater (less) criterion value is better
1 US dollar = 4 Litas
64000
400
V = 490970
0,1304
0,0008
According to their effect on the efficiency of the loan in time the quantitative criteria may
be divided into:
 short-term factors affecting the loan for a certain period of time only;
 long-term factors affecting the loan throughout its life cycle.
The initial significance of long-term criteria (i.e. average monthly instalment, life
insurance, mortgage insurance) depends on the issued loan maturity as well as monetary
expression of a criterion unit of measure. In the case considered the maturity of the loan is 10
years.
Pi  e  f i ,
(3)
where e - repayment time of a loan; fi - monetary evaluation of a measure unit of the i
criterion.
The initial significance of one-off (i.e. hypothecation bond registration fee, loan
administration fee, initial payment, current exchange commission) is equal to the monetary
expression of the criterion measuring unit. For example, the initial significance of one-off
hypothecation bond registration fee is equal to one since this payment is effected only once
per 10 years.
pi  f i .
(4)
The physical meaning of the initial significance of a quantitative criterion consists in the
fact that multiplying it by the value of a quantitative criterion its monetary expression
calculated over the maturity of the loan (equivalent to former natural expression) is obtained.
P3 = 1100  1 = 1100;
P4 = 480  10 = 4800, etc.
End results of the 2nd stage are:
P1 = 413760; P2 = 1300; P3 = 1110; P4 = 4800, P5 = 5600; P6 = 64000; P7 = 400.
Stage 3. The overall quantitative criteria magnitude sum expressed in money terms is
determined:
t
V   Pi , i 1,t .
(5)
i 1
V = 413760 + 1300 + 1110 + 4800 + 5600 + 64000 + 400 = 490970.
Stage 4. The quantitative criteria significances describing the loan which can be expressed in
money terms are determined as follows:
P
qi  i , i  1, t.
V
q1 
(6)
413760
 0,8427 , etc.
490970
End results of the 4th stage are:
q1 = 0,8427; q2 = 0,0026; q3 = 0,0023; q4 = 0,0098, q5 = 0,114; q6 = 0,1304; q7 = 0,0008.
13
The total sum of significances quantitative criteria is always equal to 1:
t
q
i 1
i
 1.
(7)
7
 qi  0,8427  0,0026  0,0023  0,0098  0,0114  0,1304  0,0008  1,0000 .
i 1
This allows us to check if the quantitative criteria significances are calculated correctly.
Stage 5. In order to achieve full coordination between the significances of quantitative and
qualitative criteria, a compared standard value (E) is set. It is equal to the sum of any selected
significances of quantitative criteria. One of the main requirements for this compared standard
value is that according to utility it should be easily comparable with all qualitative criteria.
In this case, the significances of all qualitative criteria are determined by the comparison
of their utility with the significance of the compared standard value. E is determined
according to the following formula:
g
E   qz ,
(8)
z 1
where g is the number of quantitative criteria included into the compared standard; qz is the
significance of z quantitative criterion included into the compared standard.
In our case all qualitative criteria significances were determined by comparing it with the
significances of the loan repayment and payment of interest and initial payment:
E = 0,8427 + 0,1304 = 0,9731.
Stage 6. The initial significances vi of qualitative criteria are determined by expert methods
comparing their relative significance to the significance E of the selected compared standard.
In this case, relative significances of qualitative criteria should be expressed in per cent. For
instance, if the expert methods revealed that the general terms and conditions made up
31,58% of the utility of the compared standard (the loan repayment and payment of interest
and initial payment), the significance of the general terms and conditions v9 = 0,3158.
Stage 7. The significances of qualitative criteria are determined as follows:
qi  i  E,
i  t  1, ... , m.
(9)
q8 = 0,2536  0,9731 = 0,2468; q9 = 0,3158  0,9731 = 0,3073; q10 = 0,0136  0,9731 = 0,0132.
The above method allows to determine significances of criteria which are maximally
interrelated and depend on qualitative and quantitative characteristics of all criteria.
4.3. The multiple criteria complex proportional evaluation of the versions
This method assumes direct and proportional dependence of significance and priority of
investigated versions on a system of criteria adequately describing the alternatives and on
values and significances of the criteria. The system of criteria is determined and the values
and initial significances of criteria are calculated by experts. All this information can be
corrected by interested parties (customer, users, etc.) taking into consideration their pursued
goals and existing capabilities. Hence, the assessment results of alternatives fully reflect the
14
initial data jointly submitted by experts and interested parties. The determination of
significance and priority of alternatives is carried out in four stages.
Stage 1. The weighted normalized decision making matrix D is formed. The purpose of this
stage is to receive dimensionless weighted values from the comparative indexes. When the
dimensionless values of the indexes are known, all criteria, originally having different
dimensions, can be compared. The following formula is used for this purpose:
xij  qi
d ij = n
, i=1,m;
 xij
j 1
j=1,n.
(10)
where xij - the value of the i-th criterion in the j-th alternative of a solution; m - the number of
criteria; n - the number of the alternatives compared; qi - significance of i-th criterion.
0,8427 1148
d11 
 0,2806 ;
1148  1100  1200
0,8427 1100
d12 
 0,2689 , etc.
1148  1100  1200
End results of the 1st stage are:
d11 = 0,2806;
d21 = 0,0008;
d31 = 0,0007;
d41 = 0,0000;
d51 = 0,0033;
d61 = 0,0326;
d71 = 0,0008;
d81 = 0,0823;
d91 = 0,1116;
d101 = 0,0088;
d12 = 0,2689;
d22 = 0,0009;
d32 = 0,0008;
d42 = 0,0049;
d52 = 0,0041;
d62 = 0,0489;
d72 = 0,0000;
d82 = 0,0823;
d92 = 0,0891;
d102 = 0,0015;
d13 = 0,2933;
d23 = 0,0009;
d33 = 0,0007;
d43 = 0,0049;
d53 = 0,0041;
d63 = 0,0489;
d73 = 0,0000;
d83 = 0,0823;
d93 = 0,1066;
d103 = 0,0029;
The sum of dimensionless weighted index values dij of each criterion xi is always equal to
the significance qi of this criterion:
n
qi =  d ij , i=1,m; j=1, n.
j=1
(11)
In other words, the value of significance qi of the investigated criterion is proportionally
distributed among all alternative versions aj according to their values xij. For example:
q5  0,0326  0,0489  0,0489  0,1304 .
Stage 2. The sums of weighted normalized indexes describing the j-th version are calculated.
The versions are described by minimizing indexes S-j and maximizing indexes S+j. The lower
value of minimizing indexes is better (loan repayment and payment of interest, hypothecation
bond registration fee, a one-off loan administration fee, etc.). The greater value of maximizing
indexes is better (maturity of the loan, general terms and conditions). The sums are calculated
according to the formula:
m
S  j =  d ij ;
i 1
m
S  j =  d ij ,
i 1
i = 1, m ; j = 1, n.
(12)
The following loans ‘pluses’ S+j and ‘minuses’ S-j have been received in this specific case:
15
S+1 = 0,0823 + 0,1116 = 0,1938;
S+2 = 0,0823 + 0,0891 = 0,1713;
S+3 = 0,0823 + 0,1066 = 0,1889;
S-1 = 0,2806 + 0,0008 + 0,0007 + 0,0000 + 0,0033 + 0,0326 + 0,0008 + 0,0088 = 0,3276;
S-2 = 0,2689 + 0,0009 + 0,0008 + 0,0049 + 0,0041 + 0,0489 + 0,0000 + 0,0015 = 0,3299;
S-3 = 0,2933 + 0,0009 + 0,0007 + 0,0049 + 0,0041 + 0,0489 + 0,0000 + 0,0029 = 0,3557.
In this case, the values S+j (the greater is this value (loan ‘pluses’), the more satisfied are
the interested parties) and S-j (the lower is this value (loan ‘minuses’), the better is goal
attainment by the interested parties) express the degree of goals attained by the interested
parties in each alternative loan. In any case the sums of 'pluses' S+j and 'minuses' S-j of all
alternative loans are always respectively equal to all sums of significances of maximizing and
minimizing criteria:
n
m n
S =  S  j    d ij ,
j 1
i 1j 1
n
m n
S =  S  j    d ij ,
j 1
i 1j 1
(13)
i=1,m; j=1, n.
For example,
S- = 0,3276 + 0,3299 + 0,3557 = 0,2806 + 0,0008 + 0,0007 + 0,0000 + 0,0033 + 0,0326 +
0,0008 + 0,0088 + 0,2689 + 0,0009 + 0,0008 + 0,0049 + 0,0041 + 0,0489 + 0,0000 + 0,0015
+ 0,2933 + 0,0009 + 0,0007 + 0,0049 + 0,0041 + 0,0489 + 0,0000 + 0,0029 = 1,0132
In this way, the calculations made may be additionally checked.
Stage 3. The significance (efficiency) of comparative versions is determined on the basis of
describing positive loans ('pluses') and negative loans ('minuses') characteristics. Relative
significance Qj of each loan aj is found according to the formula:
Q j =S  j +
n
S min   S  j
j 1
n S
S  j   min
j 1 S
j
, j=1,n.
(14)
Calculations performed by Formula 14 are given below:
Q1  0,1938 
Q2  0,1713 
Q3  0,1889 
0,3276  0,3276  0,3299  0,3557 
 0,5415 ;
 0,3276 0,3276 0,3276 
0,3276  



 0,3276 0,3299 0,3557 
0,3276  0,3276  0,2399  0,3557 
 0,5166 ;
 0,3276 0,3276 0,3276 
0,3299  



 0,3276 0,3299 0,3557 
0,3276  0,3276  0,2399  0,3557 
 0,5091 .
 0,3276 0,3276 0,3276 
0,3557  



 0,3276 0,3299 0,3557 
16
Stage 4. Priority determination of loans. The greater is the Qj the higher is the efficiency
(priority) of the loan. Since Q1 > Q2 > Q3, then priority of the 1st version is the best (see Table
4).
Table 4. Multiple criteria evaluation of alternative loans from different financial institutions
The criteria considered
Measuring
units
Lt/month
*
Significance
Numerical values of criteria of the
compared loans
Baltic and
Vilnius
Hermis
US Business
Bank
Bank
Fund
0,2806
0,2689
0,2933
1. Loan repayment and
0,8427
payment of interest
2. Hypothecation bond
Lt
0,0026
0,0008
registration fee
3. A one-off loan
Lt
0,0023
0,0007
administration fee
4. Life insurance
Lt/year
0,0098
0,0000
5. Insurance of the housing to
Lt/year
0,0114
0,0033
be purchased
6. The initial payment
Lt
0,1304
0,0326
7. Commission for currency
Lt
0,0008
0,0008
exchange
8. Maturity of the loan
Years
+ 0,2468
0,0823
9. General terms and
Points
+ 0,3073
0,1116
conditions of the loan
10. Loan registration
Weeks
0,0180
0,0088
The sums of weighted normalized maximizing indices of
0,1938
the loans S+j
The sums of weighted normalized minimizing indices of
0,3276
the loans S+j
Significance of the loans Qj
0,5415
Priority of the loans
1
Utility degree of the loans, %
100
 - The sign ( ()) indicates that a greater (less) criterion value is better
1 US dollar = 4 Litas
0,0009
0,0009
0,0008
0,0007
0,0049
0,0041
0,0049
0,0041
0,0489
0,0000
0,0489
0,0000
0,0823
0,0891
0,0823
0,1066
0,0015
0,1713
0,0029
0,1889
0,3299
0,3557
0,5166
2
95,40
0,5091
3
94,02
The analysis of the method presented makes it possible to state that it may be easily
applied to evaluating the loans and selecting most efficient of them, being fully aware of a
physical meaning of the process. Moreover, it allowed to formulate a reduced criterion Qj
which is directly proportional to the relative effect of the compared criteria values xij and
significances qi on the end result.
4.4. The utility degree of the loans
Significance Qj of loan aj indicates satisfaction degree of demands and goals pursued by
the interested parties - the greater is the Qj the higher is the efficiency of the loan. In this case,
the significance Qmax of the most rational loan will always be the highest. The significances of
all remaining loan are lower as compared with the most rational one. This means that total
demands and goals of interested parties will be satisfied to a smaller extent than it would be in
case of the best loan.
The degree of loan utility is directly associated with quantitative and conceptual
information related to it. With the increase (decrease) of the significance of a loan analyzed,
its degree of utility also increases (decreases). The degree of loan utility is determined by
comparing the loan analysed with the most efficient loan. In this case, all the utility degree
values related to the loan analyzed will be ranged from 0 to 100. This will facilitate visual
assessment of loan efficiency.
The formula used for the calculation of loan aj utility degree Nj is given below:
17
N
j


 Q :Q
 100%
j
max
(15)
here Qj and Qmax are the significances of the loan obtained from the equation 14.
Now follow calculations made according to Formula 15:
N1 = (0,5415 : 0,5415) 100% = 100%;
N2 = (0,5166 : 0,5415) 100% = 95,40%;
N3 = (0,5091 : 0,5415) 100% = 94,02%.
The degree of utility Nj of loan aj indicates the level of satisfying the needs of the parties
interested in the loan. The more goals are achieved and the more important they are, the
higher is the degree of the loan utility. Since clients are mostly interested in how much more
efficient particular loan are than the others (which ones can better satisfy their needs), then it
is more advisable to use the concept of loan utility rather than significance when choosing the
most efficient solution.
A degree of loan utility reflects the extent to which the goals pursued by the interested
parties are attained. Therefore, it may be used as a basis for determining loan value. The more
objectives are attained and the more significant they are the higher will be loan degree of
utility and its value.
Thus, having determined in such a way the ratio of degree of utility and value of loan, one
can see what complex effect can be obtained by investing money into anyone of the loan.
There is a complete clarity where it pays better to invest the money and what is the efficiency
degree of the investment.
5. CONCLUSIONS
The improvement of housing conditions in Lithuania requires access to credit. Barriers to
rational credit access for low incomes are among the most important obstacles faced by
Lithuanian households seeking affordable dwelling. Efforts to expand access to rational
housing credit have led to reforms in the lending practices of advanced industrial economies
and to the creation of alternative credit institutions and instruments. For example, rational
housing credit access can be expanded through the use of low interest loans, waivers of
closing costs, government and private mortgage insurance, reduced down payments, sweat
equity, flexible debt-to-income ratios, lease-purchase arrangements, deferred second
mortgage, etc. The research performed is based on the analysis of the expertise of advanced
industrial economies aimed at adapting most rational credit access to Lithuania, with account
of its specific history, economic development, needs and traditions.
The paper also describes method to be used in searching for rational housing investment
instruments and lenders.
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Lisbon, Portugal 29 June - 3 July 1998. Edited by V.Abrantes. Porto, 1998. - 714 p.
E.Zavadskas, A.Kaklauskas. Modelling and forecasting of construction industry in Lithuania // 5th
International Conference “Integrating technology & human decisions: global bridges into the 21 st
century”. Vol 2. Edited by D.K.Despotis and C.Zopounidis. New Technologies Publications,
Athens, 1999. P. 2051-2053.
E.Zavadskas, A.Kaklauskas, A.Banaitis. Analysis, modelling and forecasting of housing credit
access in Lithuania. The practical workshop on housing finance organized by the United Nations.
30 January –1 February 2000, Timisoara, Romania.
http://www.unece.org/env/hs/workshop/workshop.htm
http://www.unece.org/env/hs/workshop/paper-2.pdf
E.Zavadskas, B.Sloan, A.Kaklauskas, A.Banaitis. Multicriteria complex analysis of European
construction industries and future prognoses for Lithuania. Conference ‘Transition in Central and
Eastern Europe’. Pgs. 393-398. Belgrade, Yugoslavia, 1997.
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