Land use and the conservation of farmland birds Jules Bos, Plant Research International & Walter Rossing, Wageningen University Biological Farming Systems With the expansion of agriculture in Europe over the past centuries, an important part of European biodiversity is now linked to farming. This includes bird populations linked to farming activities. During the last three decades there have been widespread and severe declines in populations of farmland birds and other wildlife. These declines have been attributed to the general process of agricultural intensification (e.g. Herzon et al., 2008; Donald et al., 2006). With farmland constituting the single largest habitat in Europe, the continental-scale effects of agricultural intensification on biodiversity may be comparable with potential effects of climate change. Addressing biodiversity loss on European farmland therefore is a major societal issue. Agricultural intensification encompasses a wide range of interrelated components that may have occurred simultaneously. Each component may impact on reproduction and mortality rates of single species in different ways. The multifaceted character of agricultural intensification complicates the identification of specific causes of farmland bird population declines. However, there is broad agreement that following components of agricultural intensification have played a major role (Wilson et al., 2009; Newton, 2004): Increased use of pesticides and fertilisers. Pesticide use affects reproduction and mortality both directly and indirectly. Direct effects occur instantly via failed reproduction or immediate mortality. Indirect effects impact via reduced food supplies. For example, the use of herbicides decreases weed populations and hence also weed seed availability in agricultural areas, reducing food supply in both the short and long term. Weeds also support insects, another important component in the diet of birds. The use of fertilizers benefits the growth of improved agricultural crops at the expense of wild plants, resulting in uniform fields with dense crop canopies that are less accessible to farmland birds for use as foraging or breeding habitat (Kragten et al., 2008; Eraud & Boutin, 2002; Chamberlain et al., 2000). The removal of hedges, shrubs, ditches, wooded banks and other landscape elements, resulting in a strong reduction of semi-natural, often insect-rich habitats within the agricultural matrix. Semi-natural habitats are both important as nesting habitat and as a source of food. Decrease of the area planted to summer cereals and dominance of winter cereals or maize in regional crop rotations. The decreased summer cereal area has resulted in a reduced availability of cereal stubbles in winter, which constitute an important food source (Gillings et al., 2005). The dominance of winter cereals or maize in regional crop rotations implies that farmland birds in the breeding season have fewer opportunities to take advantage of different crops in different stages of development within their territories, adding to the problem of the general lack of insect-rich vegetations where youngfeeding parent birds can forage efficiently . Loss of mosaics in space and time, resulting from the spatial separation of arable land and grassland, increases in the scale of farming and uniformization of farmland. These developments have reduced the supply of different habitats at multiple spatial scales (Benton et al, 2003). Increases in the scale of farming have also reduced the supply of field margins and field boundary structures, which are often valuable to farmland birds. For safe nesting sites, efficiently foraging sites and sufficiently high reproduction rates in the breeding season, the presence of different crop and non-crop habitats within short flight distances is important. Relative immigration and emigration rates being equal, changes in population size are determined by the balance between reproduction and mortality. A decreasing population size means that long-term mortality rate exceeds long-term reproductive rate. Whether the dominant cause of population decline is increased mortality, reduced reproduction or both combined, is not easily determined. Moreover, the net balance between mortality and reproduction may vary in space and time. Primary demographic causes may reflect a whole range of secondary causes, such as reduced chick survival or increased mortality during the late winter months. To stem further declines of farmland birds and other biodiversity taxa, agri-environment schemes have been designed and implemented since 1992. They have been shown to enhance local species richness and abundances of some species groups and to provide various food sources for farmland birds (e.g. Perkins et al., 2008; Peach et al., 2001). However, their effectiveness in reversing population declines has so far been limited. There are several reasons why agri-environment schemes generally have failed to deliver, including low spatial coverage, poor spatial targeting and poor monitoring (Geiger, 2011; Kleijn & Sutherland, 2003). Recently, there is a growing amount of literature suggesting that the effectiveness of agri-environment schemes strongly depends on landscape composition (Geiger, 2011, Concepción et al., 2008; Sabatier et al., 2010; Smith et al., 2010). Single species have specific requirements and preferences in terms of nest sites and availability of summer food and winter food. Based on extensive, multi-annual research programmes, the demands of some farmland bird species are well known, including Grey partridge (Peridix perdix) and Skylark (Alauda arvensis). The relatively comprehensive knowledge base for these and other species allows the modelling of (regional) population density as a function of landscape composition and/or land use in terms of e.g. cultivated crops, field size, agricultural management and supply of semi-natural habitats, both at landscape scale (e.g. Boatman et al., 2009; Swetnam et al., 2005) as well as at larger spatial scales (e.g. Scholefield et al., 2011; Butler et al., 2010). In turn, this progress in quantitative knowledge on bird ecology allows evaluation of alternative landscape configurations in terms of bird conservation relative to other objectives of land use, for instance those related to carbon sequestration, excess surface water storage and agricultural production. Such integrated analyses are rare due to fragmentation of knowledge along disciplinary divides and limited interest among scientists in designoriented approaches. At the same time integration of information and demonstration of trade-offs and synergies can support learning and negotiation processes which by many are deemed essential to develop new perspectives for systems management (Folke et al., 2005; Gunderson et al., 1995). Thinking about alternative landscapes often results in a number of ‘sketch designs’ – scenarios developed by experts or in participatory settings with stakeholders. A more effective approach is to generate a large set of alternatives that perform differently in terms of the land use objectives at stake. Such approach has three advantages over a sketch design approach. Firstly, interactions among objectives can be explored and trade-offs made apparent (Groot et al., 2007; Tittonell et al., 2007). This gives insight in the space for manoeuvre given the various and often conflicting objectives of stakeholder groups involved. Secondly, insights from psychology on self-determination and motivation (Ryan and Deci, 2000) show that acceptance and internalization of policy solutions is enhanced if decision makers are offered a choice from a broad portfolio of alternatives as opposed to policy prescription (Moller at al., 2006). Thirdly, exploration of the full set of possible landscapes can yield radically different alternatives that break path dependency and avoid lock-in often associated with small incremental changes. Objectives of land use may act at different levels, further adding to complexity. For instance, the degree of bird reproduction success acts at the landscape level, C-sequestration is relevant at the field level and profit is considered at the farm level. Field-farm-landscape modelling techniques developed over the past decade can assist in creating and learning from a salient diversity of landscape alternatives. In the past decade major progress has been made in integrated assessment methods that enable systematic generation and evaluation of landscapes in a spatially explicit manner (Groot and Rossing, Methods in Ecology and Evolution accepted). The Landscape IMAGES model (Groot et al., 2010) provides a framework for such assessments, demonstrates relations between objectives and shows the spatial landscape implications. Conservation of farmland birds can thus be considered a multi-objective optimization problem. Land use activities constitute the decision variables which determine the provision of the objectives (Figure 1a). In contrast to global, single-objective optimization, multi-objective problems do not have a single optimal solution, but are solved by a set of alternative solutions that reveal synergies or trade-offs among the objectives (Coello Coello et al. 2007). A considerable part of multi-objective optimization procedures rely on aggregating the various objectives into one by weighing and normalization and then optimizing a single objective problem. Weighing procedures introduce technical complexity and arbitrary choices that are not conducive to the transparency of design processes where conflict and negotiation usually prevail. Pareto-optimality represents a powerful criterion to combine objectives without a priori weighing and has been scarcely used thus far. The Pareto-optimal solution set is a collection of alternatives that cannot be improved for one of the objectives without compromising any of the other objectives involved (Figure 1a). Put differently, the alternatives in the Pareto-optimal set are not ‘dominated’ by solutions that perform better for all the objectives (Figure 1b). In a set of alternatives comprising both optimal and non-optimal solutions, the dominance concept can be used to rank the alternatives in terms of Pareto- optimality in different ways (Coello Coello et al. 2007). For example, after removal of the non-dominated alternatives (rank 1) from the set, a new collection of non-dominated alternatives can be identified that will receive rank 2 (Figure 1b). This can be repeated until all alternatives have been ranked (Goldberg 1989). In this way, the initial n-dimensional optimization problem is reduced to a one dimensional problem without a priori weighing (Fig. 1c). Here we propose to evaluate opportunities and trade-offs for conservation of Grey partridge and Skylark by bringing together information on bird ecology and agronomy for selected case study landscapes. Figure 1. a. Stylized illustration of a trade-off between farm gross margin and nature value in an agro-ecosystem, and the associated landscape for the alternatives. The closed symbols represent landscape alternatives belonging to the Pareto-optimal set (rank 1). The ranking scheme is demonstrated in b., where the shaded areas indicate the region of the solution space that is dominated by a particular solution (the solution performs better for all the objectives than any other solution within the shaded area; for further explanation see text). c. Conceptual outline of the optimization process employing the iterative steps of generating, evaluating and selecting. The pressures exerted by the optimization algorithm through Pareto ranking (solid arrow) and the search for less crowded areas (dashed arrows) are indicated. The encircled solution can represent the original situation. 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