ENERGY SCENARIOS FOR ETHEKWINI
Exploring the implications of different energy futures for
eThekwini up to 2040
DECISION-MAKERS’ REPORT
As linked with the eThekwini 1.3 LEAP model
Supported by
Produced by
April 2014
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Executive Summary
The Energy Scenarios for eThekwini project models and costs different energy development paths,
using LEAP (Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning) computer modelling software, to clarify a
viable set of sustainable energy implementation objectives and to illustrate the carbon emissions
implications of different energy futures for eThekwini. The project was undertaken by Sustainable
Energy Africa (SEA), with funding support from Bread for the World.
The project included a detailed energy data collection exercise. All supply-side data was drawn
from the eThekwini Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2010, while further detail on demand-side data
and energy use by end-use was drawn from various other studies. A baseline of current energy use
patterns was developed for the year 2010.
The Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) simulation tool was used to examine the
implications of a number of possible future energy scenarios for eThekwini from the base year of
2010 up to 2040. Each scenario contained a combination of known viable energy efficiency
interventions and electricity supply options.
Having explored the implications of different scenarios, or sets of interventions, on energy
consumption and emissions production of eThekwini, a range of interventions are recommended
to promote a sustainable and resilient city. The core motivations for the recommended set of
interventions are embodied in the following key issues:
RISK: Proceeding along a Business As Usual Scenario has significant risks, including:

A vulnerability to carbon taxes

Peak oil vulnerability

High energy expenditure for the city’s occupants

Declining economic competitiveness

Failure to develop a local energy economy and its associated job creation

Losing any marketing advantage around being a green city
ECONOMIC COST: The overall cost to the municipality’s inhabitants of a low-carbon future is lower
than the Business As Usual Scenario due to the efficiency gains and economic benefits resulting
from the interventions, which outweigh implementation costs. A caveat is that transport
infrastructure costs were not included.
ECONOMIC
ADVANTAGE: All electricity efficiency interventions that are recommended for
implementation in the residential, commercial, industrial and local government sectors are
financially sensible and pay themselves back over the lifetime of the implementation programme.
This leads to a more competitive and robust economy.
ELECTRICITY SUPPLY COST: The decrease in demand for electricity when compared to a Business As
Usual Scenario results in a decrease in electricity generation (supply-side) costs, despite the
inclusion of a small amount of embedded solar PV, which is more costly than conventional
electricity generation options. It is far cheaper to save electricity than to build new electricity
generation plants and expand the electricity grid infrastructure.
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JOB
CREATION: A thriving local sustainable energy (renewable energy and energy efficiency)
industry will result in an increases in local jobs created.
Recommended energy efficiency and electricity supply interventions:

Efficient technologies (lighting, HVAC, water heating, motors) in the built environment
(residential, commercial and industrial sectors)

Efficient local government operations and facilities (street and traffic lighting, lighting in
buildings, HVAC, water heating, pumps in WWTW and bulk water, vehicle fleet)

Efficient transport systems through freight shift from road to rail, passenger transport
modal shift from private to public transport, efficient private vehicles (through licencing
requirements or behaviour campaigns) and development planning

Rooftop solar PV in the built environment
Next Steps

Align actions with existing municipal policies and priorities, and engage with key municipal
departments and other players to ensure buy-in

Development of business plans for key projects, including definition of responsibilities,
financing sources, timeframes and key players to be involved

Exploration of financing needs for local renewable energy industry development and an
effective public transport system and how such financing may be sourced

Research on the comparative costs of public vs. private transport infrastructure

Detailed assessment of biodiesel options and their environmental and social impacts
should be made before proceeding with any specific technology

Tackling peak oil would require a paradigm shift in how cities work – local government
authorities need to start considering this

Undertake detailed analysis on job creation potential of different energy supply options
and how to provide incentives or other measures to maximise local job creation

Explore the design of electricity tariffs that will preserve municipal revenue in the face of
energy efficiency and embedded renewable energy

Research on the potential embedded solar PV uptake and its potential impact on the local
grid

Detailed electricity sector analyses, including:
-
Promotion of renewable energy supply, including engaging with national government,
NERSA and Eskom around the city’s role in this regard
-
Potential for demand-side (efficiency) measures to reduce infrastructure upgrading or
development costs, and the resulting impact on cost-benefit of efficiency measures
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Table of Contents
1.
Background ................................................................................................................................... 5
2.
Methodology ................................................................................................................................ 6
3.
Baseline Energy and Emissions (2010) ......................................................................................... 8
4.
Business as Usual .......................................................................................................................... 9
5.
A Resilient Future........................................................................................................................ 12
6.
Key Issues .................................................................................................................................... 16
6.1.
Overview .......................................................................................................................................... 16
6.2.
Motivating for a sustainable energy future..................................................................................... 17
6.3.
Key issues regarding sustainable energy implementation .............................................................. 25
6.4.
Key issues that need to be considered in future planning exercises .............................................. 30
7.
Way Forward............................................................................................................................... 35
8.
Annexures ................................................................................................................................... 36
8.1.
Annexure A: Rationale for selection of demand-side interventions ............................................... 36
8.2.
Annexure B: Technical report .......................................................................................................... 38
Acronyms and Terms
BAU
BRT
DCCS
Demand-side costs
Business As Usual scenario
Bus Rapid Transit
Durban Climate Change Strategy
The cost that the entire community (all sectors, e.g. residential,
commercial, industrial, local government) pays for all their energy
needs
Demand-side energy data Deals with how energy is used, e.g. the use of electricity by end-use,
such as water heating, cooking, space heating, lighting, etc.
Embedded generation
Embedded generation, also known as distributed, on-site, dispersed or
decentralised generation, refers to the generation of electricity from
many small sources, e.g. solar PV on residential roofs
Energy efficiency
Reducing the use of energy to achieve the same output. This does not
include load shifting, e.g. using electricity at different times to reduce
peak load.
EThekwini
In this report this terms is used to refer to the area that falls within
eThekwini Municipality metro boundaries
EThekwini Municipality
In this report this terms is used to refer to the local government entity
ETPV
Energy (including electricity and transport) efficiency with embedded
solar PV scenario
GHG
Greenhouse gas emissions
GJ
GigaJoule: 109 Joules, i.e. a billion Joules
HFO
Heavy Fuel/Furnace Oil
HVAC
Heating, Ventilation and Cooling (generally refers to air conditioning
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IRP
kWh
LEAP
LED
LPG
NERSA
Pass(enger)-km
Peak oil
Renewable energy
Resilient
SEA
Solar PV
Supply-side costs
Supply-side energy data
Sustainable energy
SWH
TJ
TWh
system)
Integrated Resource Plan 2010 (Policy-Adjusted Scenario): the
national build plan for electricity supply up until 2030.
KiloWatt-hour: a thousand Watt-hours (1 “unit” of electricity)
Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning: computer modelling
software used to analyse the energy sector
Light-emitting Diode: a very efficient form of lighting
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
National Energy Regulator of South Africa
Passenger-kilometres: product of number of passengers and
kilometres travelled, e.g. 2 passengers in a car making a 5km trip = 2 x
5 = 10 passenger-km
The situation where the demand for oil exceeds extraction, resulting
in liquid fuel prices that are unstable and/or rise steeply. Predictions
for peak oil timing range from early 2000 (already occurred) to within
the next decade or two.
Covers energy generated by renewable resources, e.g. wind and solar.
In this report, as is often the case, large hydro-power is not considered
a renewable energy source due to the environmental and socioeconomic damage caused by the construction of large dams.
A resilient city is one that has developed capacities to help absorb
future shocks and stresses to its social, economic, and technical
systems and infrastructures so as to still be able to maintain
essentially the same functions, structures, systems, and identity1
Sustainable Energy Africa
Solar photo-voltaic
The costs of the energy supply system. In this report it deals with the
cost of the electricity supply system, i.e. the cost of building electricity
plants.
Deals with the amount and type of energy supplied, e.g. 8MW of
installed landfill gas-to-electricity power plant
Used in this report to denote energy efficiency and renewable energy
Solar Water Heater
TerraJoule: 1012 Joules
TerraWatt-hour: 1012 Watt-hour, i.e. 109 kWh
1. Background
South Africa’s metro cities and large industrial towns are energy-intensive nodes, consuming more
than half the country’s energy.2 It is clear that if the greenhouse gas emission reduction targets, as
set by national government,3 are to be achieved, the majority of sustainable energy initiatives will
need to be located at the city level. Cities and local governments are the seat of service delivery in
implementing national policies and are thus well-placed to bring about change.
1
Source: resilientcity.org
2006 and 2011 State of Energy in South African Cities Report by Sustainable Energy Africa
3
Contained in the Cabinet-endorsed required-by-science scenario in the Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios report, 2008
2
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To address the challenge of climate change, eThekwini Municipality has developed the Durban
Climate Change Strategy (DCCS) as part of its Municipal Climate Protection Programme. The DCCS
sets the following energy-related goals:

A thriving sustainable energy sector

Supply of 40% of electricity from appropriate renewable energy technologies by 2030

50% of mid- to high income households have implemented efficient water heating
technologies by 2020

50% of mid- to high income households use gas or induction cookers for cooking by 2017

90% of residential lighting is energy efficient by 2020

Businesses adopt a range of energy efficiency technologies with 90% of lighting, heating,
ventilation and cooling (HVAC) and water heating equipment within facilities becoming energy
efficient by 2030

EThekwini Municipality adopts a range of energy efficiency technologies with 90% of lighting,
heating, ventilation and cooling (HVAC), distribution systems, water and waste water
treatment and water heating equipment within facilities becoming energy efficient by 2030

Encourage a basket of energy services to meet the energy needs of poor households and
reduce the energy burden or cost of energy
The Energy Scenarios for eThekwini project models and costs different energy development paths,
using LEAP (Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning) computer modelling software, to clarify a
viable set of sustainable energy implementation objectives and to illustrate the carbon emissions
implications of different energy futures for eThekwini. The scenarios are either based on or
support eThekwini Municipality’s DCCS goals. The project was undertaken by Sustainable Energy
Africa (SEA), with funding support from Bread for the World.
2. Methodology
The project included a detailed energy data collection exercise. All supply-side data was drawn
from the eThekwini Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2010, while further detail on demand-side data and
energy use by end-use was drawn from various other studies. A baseline of current energy use
patterns was developed for the year 2010. This information forms the foundation of all the
modelling outputs that follow. It is critical for it to be as accurate and meaningful as possible. Data
was collected for the following sectors:

Residential: disaggregated according to electrified and non-electrified households and by
income category

Commercial: disaggregated by fuel type and fuel end-use

Industrial: disaggregated by fuel type and fuel end-use

Transport: covered passenger transport (public and private), freight, aviation, and petrol and
diesel use in other sectors (agriculture, commercial, industrial, etc.)
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
Local Government: covered all eThekwini Municipality operations, including public buildings,
street and traffic lights, water and waste-water treatment and the municipal vehicle fleet

Electricity losses: captured as its own sector, in order not to skew the local government energy
use picture and to allow demand-side analysis
The Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) simulation tool was used to examine the
implications of a number of possible future energy scenarios for eThekwini from the base year of
2010 up to 2040. Each scenario contained a combination of known viable energy efficiency
interventions and electricity supply options. The following primary scenarios were modelled:

Business As Usual (BAU) Scenario: no change in current energy use patterns and growth
trends, but electricity supply-side follows that set out in the IRP (Integrated Resource Plan)
2010 Policy-Adjusted Scenario.

Energy and Transport Efficiency with Embedded Solar PV (ETPV) Scenario: includes energy
efficiency interventions across all sectors and the installation of small-scale embedded solar
PV.
Secondary scenarios modelled were based on one or both of the above two primary scenarios:

Densification Scenario: based on the ETPV Scenario, but with greater public transport
occupancy levels as a result of a denser city; modelled in LEAP by adjusting the energy intensity
and demand costs of bus/BRT (Bus Rapid Transit) travel.

Peak Oil Scenarios: modelled on both primary scenarios and the Densification Scenario, by
increasing liquid fuel costs 5% above the current real (excludes inflation) increase of 4.8% per
year, i.e. real liquid fuel prices increase of 9.8% per year.

Carbon Tax Scenarios: modelled on both primary scenarios, by including a carbon tax of R160
per tonne in 2010, escalating to R320 per tonne by 2020, thereafter until 2030 and then
escalating again to R996/MWh in 2040 as set out in the IRP 2010 Policy-Adjusted scenario
parameters.

Embedded PV Scenario: based on the ETPV Scenario, but with an even greater amount of
embedded solar PV uptake across the residential, commercial and industrial sectors (1600
MW, instead of 200 MW installation)4

Solar Water Heater (SWH) Scenario: based on the ETPV Scenario, but with greater SWH rollout,
i.e. SWH in all electrified households (low- and mid- to high-income) by 2040, instead of only in
all mid- to high-income electrified households.

Biofuels Scenario: based on the ETPV Scenario, but with biofuel up-take in private and public
passenger vehicles and freight vehicles. Half of all diesel passenger and freight vehicles run off
biodiesel and all petrol passenger vehicles running on a 10% ethanol/90% petrol mix by 2030.

Electric Vehicles Scenario: based on the BAU Scenario, but with 17% of all private transport
pass-km by electric vehicles.5
4
This level of solar PV implementation, together with the greater contribution of renewables through the IRP national
build plan and the local electricity supply from landfill gas (Mariannhill and Bisasar), will increase renewables
contribution to 19.4% of eThekwini’s electricity supply (MWh) and 40.9% of electricity capacity (MW) by 2030.
5
Target based on the EPRI High Scenario in The Impacts of Plug-in Electric Vehicles on Long Range Demand Forecasts
of Distribution Networks - eThekwini Case Study
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The LEAP model’s robustness was checked by comparing its projections with that of known energy
consumption for 2010-2012, since energy consumption data was available for these years through
the eThekwini Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventories. The 2010 LEAP baseline was constructed in
such a way as to align with the 2010 Greenhouse Gas Inventory as closely as possible. The 2011
and 2012 data in LEAP are not based explicitly on the 2011 and 2012 Greenhouse Gas Inventories,
but are as a result of various key input energy drivers in the model.
Millions
Total energy demand in eThekwini
300
250
GJ
200
150
GHGI
LEAP
100
50
0
2010
2011
2012
Figure 1: LEAP projections compared with actual energy consumption
Table 1: LEAP projections compared with actual energy consumption
Year
Difference
2010
-0.13%
2011
-1.99%
2012
1.62%
The difference between modelled and actual energy consumption increase over time is small.
3. Baseline Energy and Emissions (2010)
Energy consumption in eThekwini is dominated by the transport sector (56%), followed by the
industrial (31%), residential (6%) and commercial (5%) sectors. Local government and electricity
losses account for 1% each of energy demand.
South Africa’s electricity is largely coal-fired, which is a very carbon-intensive process. This means
that electricity produces more greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per gigajoule than that of other
fuels, such as petrol or diesel. This accounts for the fact that although the transport sector
consumes the largest amount of energy (56%), its GHG contributions are proportionally
considerably less (37%), because it largely consumes petrol and diesel, not electricity.
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Figure 2: Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions by sector in eThekwini 2010
Figure 3: Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions by fuel in eThekwini 2010
These baseline graphs differ slightly from those produced for the Durban Climate Change Strategy
Introductory Report6 as there had been an update in the coal data.
4. Business as Usual
If eThekwini follows current energy-use patterns and growth paths, energy demand will more than
double (increase of 127%) by 2040, with the largest growth taking place in the commerce and
transport sectors. The drivers of energy use in the transport sector are that of passenger and
international marine transport.
6
"Durban Climate Change Strategy Introductory Report" by Megan Euston-Brown (SEA), for eThekwini Municipality,
Oct 2013
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Figure 4: Energy demand by sector for Business As Usual Scenario
Figure 5: Transport sector energy demand for Business As Usual Scenario
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GHG emissions will increase by 97%. The dip in the rate of emissions growth after 2020 is due to
the projection that a sizeable amount of nuclear and some renewable energy will be coming
online and increasing after that year, in line with the IRP Policy-Adjusted Scenario.7
Figure 6: Greenhouse gas emissions for Business As Usual Scenario
The electricity supply mix if the country follows the electricity build plan as set out in IRP 20108:
7
The 2013 revision of the IRP indicated that this might not be the case, as the construction of nuclear power may be
delayed.
8
The IRP only sets out the supply mix until 2030. It is assumed that the percentage supply contribution of each
technology stays constant from 2030 onwards.
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Figure 7: Electricity supply output of Business As Usual Scenario (TWh)
5. A Resilient Future
Having explored the implications of different scenarios, or sets of interventions, on energy use and
emissions production of eThekwini, a range of interventions are recommended to promote a
sustainable and resilient city. The core motivations for the recommended set of interventions are
embodied in the following key issues:
RISK: Proceeding along a Business As Usual Scenario has significant risks, including:

A vulnerability in a carbon constrained future

Peak oil vulnerability

High energy expenditure for the city’s occupants

An increasingly inefficient economy

Reduced jobs in the energy sector

Losing any marketing advantage around being a green city
ECONOMIC COST: The overall cost to the municipality’s inhabitants of a low-carbon future is lower
than the Business As Usual Scenario due to the efficiency gains and economic benefits resulting
from the interventions, which outweigh implementation costs. A caveat is that transport
infrastructure costs were not included.
ECONOMIC
ADVANTAGE: All electricity efficiency interventions that are recommended for
implementation in the residential, commercial, industrial and local government sectors are
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financially sensible and pay themselves back over the lifetime of the implementation programme.
This leads to a more competitive and robust economy.
ELECTRICITY SUPPLY COST: The decrease in demand for electricity when compared to a Business As
Usual Scenario results in a decrease in electricity generation (supply-side) costs, despite the
inclusion of a small amount of embedded solar PV, which is more costly than conventional
electricity generation options. It is far cheaper to save electricity than to build new electricity
generation plants and expand the electricity grid infrastructure.
JOB CREATION: A high sustainable energy supply component, associated with a robust future and a
focus on local industry creation, results in significant increases in jobs created.
SERVICE DELIVERY: The implementation of energy efficient technologies in low-income households
will decrease the financial burden of energy costs on the poor.
These motivations are described in more detail in the ‘Key Issues’ section later.
The recommended sustainable energy interventions include the following:
Table 2: Recommended energy efficiency and supply interventions
Sector
Intervention
Residential
Efficient lighting in households
Commercial
Industrial
Local Government
Scale/ timeframe
100% efficient technologies by
2017
Efficient water heating technologies (solar water 100% penetration of efficient
heaters or heat pumps) implemented in low- and water heating technologies by
high-income households.
2040 (50% by 2020)
Geyser blankets and efficient showerheads in
medium, high and very high income households.
Efficient refrigerators
100% efficient technologies in
mid- to high-income households
and 50% efficient in low-income
households by 2040.
Efficient HVAC systems
100% efficient technologies by
2030
Efficient water heating technology (either solar 100% efficient technologies by
water heaters or heat pumps)
2025
Efficient lighting implemented in new and 100% efficient technologies by
existing buildings
2017
Efficient refrigeration
100% efficient technologies by
2040
Implementation
of
efficient 100% efficient lighting
technologies/systems: lighting, motors, pumps technologies by 2020; 100%
and valves, refrigeration, HVAC, process heating, penetration of other efficient
process steam, compressed air, mechanical technologies by 2040
equipment
Government buildings: efficient lighting, water 100% efficient lighting
heating and HVAC systems
technologies by 2020; 100%
efficient HVAC technologies by
2030; 100% efficient water
heating technologies by 2025
Street lighting: replacement of mercury vapour 100% efficient technologies by
lamps with high pressure sodium lamps
2020
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Freight Transport
Passenger
Transport
Electricity Supply
Traffic lights: replacement in incandescent and 100% efficient technologies by
halogen lamps with LED lamps9
2013
Water and sewerage: efficient pumps/motors
100% efficient technologies by
2030
Shifting freight from road to rail-based transport
Freight shift from 20% rail in
2010 to 50% rail in 2040
Improved fuel efficiency of private vehicles and Private vehicle pass-km share by
the inclusion of hybrid and electric vehicles in the 2040: 47% diesel, 5% efficient
private vehicle mix
diesel, 33% petrol, 5% efficient
petrol, 6% electric, 4% hybrid
Improved public transport vehicle efficiency
All minibuses run on diesel (not
petrol) by 2040
A modal shift from private vehicles to public 10% increase in public transport
transport
pass-km share by 2040
Implementation of Bus Rapid Transit
Half of all bus and minibus
passenger-km by BRT by 2040
Increase private vehicle occupancy
1.4 in 2010 to 2.0 by 2040
Solar PV small-scale embedded generation
Figure 8: Energy demand of ETPV Scenario vs. BAU Scenario
9
100% implementation of LEDs has occurred since 2010
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Figure 9: Greenhouse gas emissions of ETPV Scenario vs. BAU Scenario
Greenhouse gas emissions level off slightly between 2020 and 2030 due to the increase in the
share of nuclear power in the national supply mix during this time period, in line with the 2010 IRP
Policy-Adjusted Scenario. It was assumed that the electricity supply mix stays static between 2030
and 2040 (i.e. same percentage share per technology type – nuclear, renewable, fossil, etc.), which
is why emissions increase at a higher rate again.
Figure 10: Supply-side (electricity generation) costs of ETPV Scenario vs. BAU Scenario
Electricity supply costs increase at a higher rate between 2020 and 2030 due to the increase in the
share of nuclear power in the national supply mix during this time period, in line with the 2010 IRP
Policy-Adjusted Scenario.
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Figure 11: Demand-side costs of ETPV Scenario vs. BAU Scenario
Despite the inclusion of rooftop solar PV, which comes at a slightly higher cost than conventional
electricity supply options, overall demand-side costs (what the end-user will pay) are lower due to
the savings realised through energy efficiency, i.e. less spend on electricity, petrol, diesel, etc.
6. Key Issues
6.1.
Overview
Table 3: Overview of key issues
Motivating for a sustainable energy future
Key Issues 1: Proceeding along a Business as Usual
Scenario has significant risk
Key Issues 2: The overall cost to Durban's inhabitants
of a low-carbon way forward is lower than the
Business as Usual scenario
Key Issues 3: The cost of an electricity supply mix that
includes renewable energy is higher, but the overall
demand-side costs are lower if combined with energy
efficiency interventions
Key Issues 4: Almost all electricity efficiency
interventions are financially sensible and pay
themselves back, leading to a more efficient economy
South Africa is ranked amongst the world’s
least efficient economies.
An energy efficient path will save the local
economy R 15 billion by 2020
The savings from demand-side efficiency
measures more than off-sets the increased
electricity supply-side cost of small-scale
embedded solar PV generation.
Energy efficient technologies that reduce
electricity use during peak usage times
(mornings and evenings) will also decrease
electricity supply-side costs and the costs of
expanding grid infrastructure to cope with the
maximum demand load.
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Key Issues 5: A high renewable energy and energy
efficient future results in an increase in local jobs
created
Strong engagement is required from
eThekwini Municipality to ensure that a
thriving local industry is promoted and
incentivised, rather than importing goods
made elsewhere.
Key issues regarding sustainable energy
implementation
Key Issues 6: Energy costs on the poor are decreased
The installation of solar water heaters in lowincome households will reduce energy costs to
poor households by R 1.5 billion by 2020.
Key Issues 7: Historically transport interventions have Transport efficiency interventions have a
been difficult to implement, yet efficient mobility is
bigger impact on overall energy demand than
essential to a sustainable city
the energy efficiency interventions in all other
sectors combined.
Key Issues 8: Electricity tariff design will need to
Energy efficiency and, in particular, embedded
change in future to promote sustainable energy and
solar renewable energy can raise concerns
at the same time preserve the municipality's revenue around revenue reductions, since currently
base
electricity revenue is directly linked to
consumption.
Key Issues 9: Durban is currently a "taker" of the
Renewables will contribute 9% to total
national electricity mix, but it may be advisable for
electricity production by 2030 according to the
the city to move to a low-carbon mix more proactively IRP. The DCCRS sets a 40% target.
to reduce the risk of having an energy system
incompatible with a carbon constrained future
Key issues that need to be considered in future
planning exercises
Key Issues 10: Peak Oil has potentially huge financial
implications for the economy and a radical modal
shift from private to public transport is needed to
change this
Key Issues 11: Densification of the city makes public
transport more feasible and therefore has a key role
to play in moving to a low-carbon city
Key Issues 12: Significant installation of renewable
energy or use of electric vehicles introduces the issue
of supply variability into planning. Balancing the grid
needs to be considered carefully in this regard.
Key Issues 13: Biofuels have the potential to decrease
carbon emissions greatly, but this is dependent on
biofuel production methods and types of plant
feedstock used
6.2.
The Peak Oil Scenario adds a cost of almost R
200 billion by 2020.
Low-density urban sprawl results in increased
dependence on private vehicles and a less
energy efficient city. Strong intervention is
required by eThekwini Municipality to avoid
this.
Both embedded solar PV and electric vehicles
introduces variability into the local grid.
Careful consideration needs to be given to the
impacts of land-use change, potential
competition with land used for food crops and
overall emissions created from the biofuel
production process.
Motivating for a sustainable energy future
KEY ISSUES 1: PROCEEDING ALONG A BUSINESS AS USUAL SCENARIO HAS SIGNIFICANT RISK
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EThekwini is highly dependent on external national and international energy sources. The current
predominant electricity source is from coal power stations,10 and most liquid fuels are imported,
although some is produced at Sasol plants from coal. The dependence of the country and cities
such as Durban on fossil-fuel based energy sources results in a very high carbon footprint and
vulnerability to external price shocks and taxes.
South Africa will likely face a “step-change” in the price of coal, as Eskom has indicated that there
is not enough investment in new coal mines to supply its coal needs from 2017/18 onwards. This
would require Eskom to buy coal from short-term suppliers at export prices.11 Investment in new
mines will also push up the price of coal. Nuclear should also be approached with caution.
International experience indicates that the chances of cost overruns are high, resulting in the
situation where, to date, all operating nuclear power plants were developed by state-owned or
regulated utility monopolies where many of the risks associated with construction costs, operating
performance, fuel price, and other factors were borne by consumers rather than suppliers. In the
UK and the US cost overruns on nuclear plants contributed to the bankruptcies of several utility
companies. 12
Energy consumption in eThekwini is dominated by four main sectors, namely transport, the
commercial sector, the industrial sector and the residential sector. The transport sector remains
dominant into 2040, using 55% of total energy; 27% in aviation and international marine, with the
rest (28%) for road-based transport. The high use of energy by road-based transport is mainly due
to the city’s sprawling nature and high use of inefficient private vehicles.
If eThekwini follows current energy-use patterns and growth paths, energy demand will more than
double (127% increase) by 2040, with the largest growth taking place in the commerce and
transport sectors. GHG emissions will increase by 97%. The dip in the rate of emissions growth
after 2020 is due to the projection that a sizeable amount of nuclear and some renewable energy
will be coming online and increasing after that year, in line with the IRP Policy-Adjusted Scenario.13
10
Despite the great strides eThekwini has made towards renewable energy through the implementation of its landfillgas-to-electricity plants, these plants only represent 0.4% of all electricity consumed within the metro area.
11
Source: http://www.miningmx.com/page/special_reports/mining-yearbook/mining-yearbook-2013/1634289Eskom-coal-costs-outweigh-project-risk#.VD_EHyLLehU
12
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics_of_nuclear_power_plants
13
It should be noted that the latest revision of the IRP indicates that this is now unlikely, as nuclear build lead-in times
are long and deadlines have been missed. It also included a new, lower electricity demand prediction, which was used
to motivate for the delay of nuclear build.
18 | P a g e
Figure 12: Energy demand by sector for Business As Usual Scenario
Figure 13: Greenhouse gas emissions for Business As Usual Scenario
There are significant risks associated with this future energy path, including:

Vulnerability to a carbon-constrained future: Having high carbon emissions levels in the
future is likely to impact on economic competitiveness. A carbon tax could have serious
direct financial implications to a fossil fuel based energy mix (figure 14).

Vulnerability to peak oil: The growth in the transport sector, in particular, is of concern
when looking at the implications of a post-peak oil economy. The implications of peak oil
19 | P a g e
will substantially increase the costs associated with transport fuels, in particular private
passenger transport, but also freight transport, which is predominantly road-based. This
will be discussed in more detail under Key Issue 10.

High energy expenditure for the metro’s occupants: An unconstrained growth in
electricity demand (as opposed to widespread implementation of energy efficiency) will
result in the overall city system paying more for energy services than necessary (figure 16).
This is particularly significant in the light of the steep electricity price increases experienced
recently.

Inefficient economy: Without a concerted application of energy efficiency, the economy
will need to spend more on energy for the same output. This becomes increasingly
significant as energy prices increase. South Africa is ranked amongst the world’s least
efficient economies (figure 15).

Reduced jobs in the energy sector: Large coal-fired and nuclear generation plants result in
fewer jobs per unit energy produced than for renewable energy or energy efficiency. In
contrast, a strong sustainable energy industry can boost local employment significantly.
This is discussed in more detail under Key Issue 5.

Losing any marketing advantage around being a green city: Durban is a leading African
city in the way it is innovating in both climate change adaptation and mitigation projects.
The latest iteration of eThekwini Municipality’s Climate Change Strategy has a vision
statement “to transform Durban’s governance, social, development and economic systems
in order to effectively respond to climate change.” Any marketing advantage is, however,
at risk if unconstrained energy demand continues and the city is seen to be carbon ‘dirty’ in
the future.
Figure 14: Increased costs of a carbon tax on Business as Usual compared with a scenario that includes
energy efficiency and embedded solar PV14
14
A carbon tax of R160/MWh in 2010 was modelled, escalating to R320/MWh by 2020 and stabilising thereafter until
2030, after which it increases to R995/MWh in 2040, as set out in the IRP 2010 scenario parameters. Carbon tax
20 | P a g e
Figure 15: Energy efficiency by country15
KEY ISSUES 2: THE OVERALL COST TO DURBAN'S INHABITANTS OF A LOW-CARBON WAY FORWARD IS LOWER THAN THE
BUSINESS AS USUAL SCENARIO
The Energy and Transport Efficiency with Embedded PV (ETPV) Scenario’s suite of low-carbon
implementation measures covers both strong demand-side measures (energy efficiency) as well as
a degree of supply-side interventions – through the implementation of embedded solar PV in the
residential sector. While the renewable energy options increase supply costs to some degree (see
Key Issue 3), the electricity efficiency measures reduce total costs to the extent that overall costs
to the city’s inhabitants for the same level of electricity service delivery is reduced. It is far cheaper
to save electricity than to include new electricity generation plants or devices, no matter if they
are renewable or not.
However, one of the key demand side measures is a modal shift towards public transport, which
will require a significant investment in public transport infrastructure. Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)
infrastructure costs were not included in the ETPV scenario, as there was limited data on the
infrastructure costs for private transport modes (e.g. road maintenance, parking, etc.). For
comparative purposes, infrastructure costs cannot be applied to one transport mode (public) and
not the other (private).
implementation has been delayed, but so, potentially, has the build of the nuclear plants, which is one of the reasons,
along with a tax stabilisation, for a relatively flat cost line after 2020 despite the increase in energy use over that same
time.
15
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_intensity: Peter Corless 30 Sep 2005 Analysis of top 40 largest national
economies (GDP) by plotting GDP per capita vs. energy efficiency (GDP per million Btus consumed); an inverse
examination of energy intensity. BTU = British thermal unit = 1055 Joules
21 | P a g e
Figure 16: Demand-side costs of Business as Usual compared with a scenario that includes energy efficiency
and embedded solar PV
KEY ISSUES 3: THE COST OF AN ELECTRICITY SUPPLY MIX THAT INCLUDES RENEWABLE ENERGY IS HIGHER, BUT THE
OVERALL DEMAND-SIDE COSTS ARE LOWER IF COMBINED WITH ENERGY EFFICIENCY INTERVENTIONS
The Energy and Transport Efficiency with Embedded PV (ETPV) Scenario includes the
implementation of embedded solar PV in the residential sector. The Embedded Solar PV Scenario
took the supply-side interventions slightly farther. The Embedded Solar PV Scenario included a
greater degree of embedded solar PV implementation in the residential sector, as well as in the
industrial and commercial sectors.
All scenarios include a shift in the national supply mix in accordance with the IRP 2010 PolicyAdjusted Scenario, which indicates a system capacity (MW) of 21% renewables, with 9% of
electricity supply (MWh) from renewables. All scenarios also include Durban’s landfill-gas-toelectricity plants (Bisasar and Mariannhill). Any renewables included in scenario modelling is
modelled on top of this national electricity supply mix.
The supply-side costs of the Embedded Solar PV Scenario are higher than the Business As Usual
Scenario due to the higher costs of solar PV when compared to conventional electricity generation
sources (figure 17). Electricity supply costs increase at a higher rate between 2020 and 2030 due
to the increase in the share of nuclear power in the national supply mix during this time period, in
line with the 2010 IRP Policy-Adjusted Scenario.
22 | P a g e
Figure 17: Supply-side (electricity generation) costs of Embedded Solar PV Scenario
The demand-side costs (i.e. costs to the eThekwini society for all their energy needs), on the other
hand, are lower in the Embedded Solar PV Scenario when compared to Business as Usual (figure
18). The savings from demand-side efficiency measures more than off-sets the increased
electricity supply-side cost of solar PV. It must be noted, though, that LEAP does not consider who
pays, only the total cost to society. The installation of solar PV may be borne by certain users while
the cost of the energy efficiency savings considered in the scenario (e.g. efficient lighting, etc.)
might be realised by someone else.
23 | P a g e
Figure 18: Demand-side costs of Embedded Solar PV Scenario
Next steps:
 Detailed electricity sector analyses, including:
- Promotion of renewable energy supply, including engaging with national
government, NERSA and Eskom around the city’s role in this regard
- Potential for demand-side (efficiency) measures to reduce infrastructure upgrading
or development costs, and the resulting impact on cost-benefit of efficiency
measures
KEY ISSUES 4: ALMOST ALL ELECTRICITY EFFICIENCY INTERVENTIONS ARE FINANCIALLY SENSIBLE AND PAY THEMSELVES
BACK, LEADING TO A MORE EFFICIENT ECONOMY
A number of energy efficiency interventions were analysed to determine their financial and energy
impact, and in particular to assess their financial feasibility.16 Interventions that form part of the
“low-hanging fruits” (i.e. least cost and easy to implement) are included as short-term options in
the scenario modelling, whilst interventions that have higher capital costs and/or require longterm planning interventions have a longer lead-in time. In the latter case, the assumption is that
over the life of the programme the targets can be predominantly met by replacement of current
technologies as they fail coupled with the growth in the various sectors, therefore there will be
relatively few retrofits necessary. A full list of interventions considered is in Annexure A, including
a rationale for why this group of interventions were chosen.
Energy efficient technologies that reduce electricity use during peak usage times (mornings and
evenings) will also decrease electricity supply-side costs and the costs of expanding grid
infrastructure to cope with the maximum demand load.
16
This statement draws from work that formed part of an earlier LEAP future scenario exercise undertaken for the City
of Cape Town.
24 | P a g e
KEY ISSUES 5: A HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENT FUTURE RESULTS IN AN INCREASE IN LOCAL JOBS
CREATED
One of the key benefits of implementing renewable energy (solar, wind, etc.) and energy efficiency
(solar water heaters, etc.) interventions is that the jobs it creates tend to have higher local content
than traditional fossil-fuel-based economic activities. Energy-efficient investments such as
retrofitting buildings tend to be location specific and require local labour. Most clean energy
industries are also more labour intensive than carbon-intensive ones.17
However, it should be noted that capturing these benefits locally, specifically in the renewable
energy industry, may require strong engagement from eThekwini Municipality to ensure that a
thriving local industry is promoted and incentivised, rather than importing good made elsewhere.
It is important that a more detailed analysis is undertaken to understand how to maximise local
jobs.
Next steps:
 Undertake detailed analysis on job creation potential of different energy supply options
and how to provide incentives or other measures to maximise local job creation
 Exploration of financing needs for local renewable energy industry development
6.3.
Key issues regarding sustainable energy implementation
KEY ISSUES 6: ENERGY COSTS ON THE POOR ARE DECREASED
The installation of SWHs in low-income households does not have as great an effect on
greenhouse gas emissions as the installation of SWHs in mid- to high-income households,18
because low-income households only consume 39% of the electricity consumed in the residential
sector, despite accounting for 59% of all households.19 Electricity savings and, therefore,
greenhouse gas emissions reduction will not be as large as for the high-income sector.
However, the installation of SWHs in low-income households is still very important from a socioeconomic perspective. Figure 19 indicates the decrease in energy costs to the low-income
electrified households sector through the installation of efficient lighting (as shown by the
Efficiency and PV Scenario) and SWHs (SWH Scenario). It should be noted that the SWH Scenario
includes the cost of low-pressure SWHs, but that the savings outweigh the costs, which is why
there is an overall energy cost saving. These cost savings ensure that the financial burden of
energy costs on the poor are decreased. A note must be made that LEAP does not allow for the
analysis of who carries the costs or benefits from energy savings. In this case, SWH
implementation funding may come from Eskom or government, but the savings would be realised
by the low-income residential sector.
17
Borel-Saladin JM, Turok IN. The impact of the green economy on jobs in South Africa. S Afr J Sci. 2013;109(9/10), Art.
#a0033, 4 pages. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/sajs.2013/a0033
18
Graphs relating to this can be found in the Energy Scenarios for eThekwini technical report.
19
2010 baseline data
25 | P a g e
Figure 19: Demand-side costs to low-income households of ETPV Scenario (includes efficient lighting in all
electrified low-income households) and Solar Water Heater Scenario (includes efficient lighting and SWHs
in all electrified low-income households)
KEY ISSUES 7: HISTORICALLY
TRANSPORT INTERVENTIONS HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT TO IMPLEMENT, YET EFFICIENT
MOBILITY IS ESSENTIAL TO A SUSTAINABLE CITY
Transport efficiency interventions have a bigger impact on overall energy demand than the energy
efficiency interventions in all other sectors combined (figure 20). Yet, the transport efficiency
interventions are generally more difficult to implement. They require behaviour change (for
people to shift to public transport), regulation (vehicle efficiencies) and substantial investment
(e.g. BRT infrastructure).
26 | P a g e
Figure 20: Cumulative impact of electricity efficiency and transport efficiency on total energy demand
Reliance on the private vehicle remains eThekwini’s biggest mobility challenge. To improve access
and mobility in the city, there is a need to transform and restructure the current transport system,
and to improve public transport. An effective and affordable public transport system is essential to
reducing the dependence of the city on fossil fuels and lowering the carbon footprint, in addition
to having important social benefits. However, the cost of an upgraded public transport system is
high and sourcing funding remains a challenge.
Currently there is limited data on infrastructure costs for private transport modes (e.g. road
maintenance, parking facilities, increased road width to deal with congestion, etc.). There tends to
be a hidden bias towards the private car user (generally wealthy) over the public transport user
(generally poor) by considering public transport investment on its own, without comparison with
the amount spent on maintaining roads infrastructure used largely by private vehicle users. For
comparative purposes, infrastructure costs should be applied to both public and private modes.
A detailed look at the energy savings impact of individual transport interventions (figure 21)
highlights that behaviour change (moving from an average occupancy of 1.4 in 2010 to 2 people
per private vehicle in 2025, staying stable afterwards) has the biggest impact. Considering the
inefficiency inherent in single-occupancy vehicles, any increase in vehicle occupancy has a
considerable impact. Private vehicles consume such a large proportion of eThekwini’s energy that,
similarly, any increase in vehicle efficiency also has a large impact. Both behaviour change and
vehicle efficiency may be influenced by the municipality through behaviour change campaigns or
vehicle licensing requirements. Another large impact intervention is a modal shift from private to
public transport. The scenario modelled includes a 10% shift from private to public. EThekwini
Municipality may have influence here through development planning; promoting mobility-centred
densification.
27 | P a g e
The largest emissions and costs savings are, similarly, realised by the Transport Behaviour, Modal
Shift and Efficient Vehicles Scenarios (figures 22 and 23). EThekwini Municipality is in the position
where it may directly impact various aspects of all three, through behaviour campaigns, vehicle
licensing requirements and public transport infrastructure investment. It also has a far-reaching
influence through its development plans approval process, which can emphasise development
along transit corridors.
Figure 21: Non-cumulative energy demand savings of various transport efficiency interventions
Millions
Greenhouse gas emissions reduction of transport interventions
0.0
-0.5
Bus Rapid Transit
-1.0
tCO2e
Business As Usual
Efficient Vehicles
-1.5
Freight
Modal Shift
-2.0
Transport Behaviour
2040
2038
2036
2034
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
-2.5
Figure 22: Non-cumulative greenhouse gas emissions savings of various transport efficiency interventions
28 | P a g e
Figure 23: Non-cumulative cost savings of various transport efficiency interventions
Next steps:
 Research on the comparative costs of public vs. private transport infrastructure
 Exploration of financing needs for an effective public transport system and how such
financing may be sourced
KEY ISSUES 8: ELECTRICITY TARIFF DESIGN WILL NEED TO CHANGE IN FUTURE TO PROMOTE SUSTAINABLE ENERGY AND
AT THE SAME TIME PRESERVE THE MUNICIPALITY'S REVENUE BASE
Electricity revenue not only supports the electricity department’s operations and infrastructure
maintenance activities, but generates a large surplus which is a significant contributor to overall
municipal coffers. While in the long-term a redesign of the municipality’s revenue system might be
pursued so that electricity does not cross-subsidise other municipal functions, this is unlikely in the
near future. Preserving the revenue contribution from electricity is therefore important.
Energy efficiency and, in particular, embedded solar renewable energy can raise concerns around
revenue reductions,20 since currently electricity revenue is directly linked to consumption. It is
therefore important that tariffs are designed such that they support electricity efficiency, yet at
the same time preserve the municipality’s revenue base and ability to operate and maintain its
electricity distribution infrastructure in a manner that ensures access for all.
Next steps:
 Explore the design of electricity tariffs that will preserve municipal revenue in the face of
energy efficiency and embedded renewable energy
20
The scale of these losses is outlined in the study “Impact of Localised Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy on
Municipal Finances over the next 10 years – Summary Report” by Sustainable Energy Africa, 2014. This study is
available on the Urban Energy Support website at www.cityenergy.org.za
29 | P a g e
KEY ISSUES 9: DURBAN IS CURRENTLY A "TAKER" OF THE NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MIX, BUT IT MAY BE ADVISABLE FOR
THE CITY TO MOVE TO A LOW-CARBON MIX MORE PROACTIVELY TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HAVING AN ENERGY SYSTEM
INCOMPATIBLE WITH A CARBON CONSTRAINED FUTURE
The IRP sets out the national electricity build plan until 2030. Renewables will contribute 9% to
total electricity production by 2030. Applications to NERSA for generation licences for larger-scale
(>100kW) electricity power plants are considered in light on the IRP. Smaller renewable
installations, such as rooftop solar PV, do not require NERSA licencing. In order to increase the
percentage share of renewables as part of the local electricity mix, eThekwini Municipality may
position itself to encourage the installation of local, small-scale renewable energy and the creation
of a local renewables industry.
EThekwini Municipality has already taken steps to facilitate the implementation of small-scale
embedded renewable energy technologies by creating the EThekwini Embedded Generator
Legislation Navigation Tool (a spreadsheet stepping through the legal requirements relevant to
prospective embedded generators in municipal networks) and a Technical Specifications for Solar
PV Installation document (a guideline providing service providers, municipalities, and interested
parties with minimum technical specifications and performance requirements for grid and nongrid connected small-scale solar PV systems).
6.4.
Key issues that need to be considered in future planning exercises
KEY ISSUES 10: PEAK OIL
HAS POTENTIALLY HUGE FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ECONOMY AND A RADICAL
MODAL SHIFT FROM PRIVATE TO PUBLIC TRANSPORT IS NEEDED TO CHANGE THIS
Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of petroleum extraction is reached, after
which the rate of production is expected to enter terminal decline, causing price volatility and
above-inflation price escalation. The Peak Oil scenarios include price escalation of liquid fuels at
5% above current real (excludes inflation) increase rates.21
Optimistic estimations of peak production forecast the global decline will begin after 2020, and
assume major investments in alternatives will occur before a crisis. These models show the price
of oil at first escalating and then retreating as other types of fuel and energy sources are used.
Pessimistic predictions of future oil production made after 2007 stated either that the peak had
already occurred, that oil production was on the cusp of the peak, or that it would occur shortly.22
21
22
The average annual real liquid fuel price increase between 2005 and 2012 is 4.8%.
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
30 | P a g e
Figure 24: Effect of peak oil on demand-side costs of Business As Usual (BAU), Energy Efficiency (ETPV) and
Densification scenarios23
Figure 25: Additional cost of peak oil on demand-side costs of Business As Usual, Energy Efficiency (ETPV)
and Densification scenarios
It is clear that following a Business As Usual path would leave eThekwini vulnerable to the severe
financial and socio-economic impacts of peak oil. Implementing energy efficiency in the transport
23
Note that the densification scenario appears to have a small impact, but this only because the Efficiency and PV
Scenario includes a raft of efficiency interventions (not just transport, but cross-sectoral) whilst the Densification
Scenario includes all these interventions PLUS densification, i.e. it only shows the impact of one extra intervention vs.
the Efficiency and PV Scenario, which includes many interventions vs. Business as Usual.
31 | P a g e
sector, as well as densification of the metro, will mitigate the effects to some extent, but the
situation is still untenable.
Next steps:
 Tackling peak oil would require a paradigm shift in how cities work – local government
authorities need to start considering this
KEY ISSUES 11: DENSIFICATION OF THE CITY MAKES PUBLIC TRANSPORT MORE FEASIBLE AND THEREFORE HAS A KEY
ROLE TO PLAY IN MOVING TO A LOW-CARBON CITY
Low-density urban sprawl results in increased dependence on private vehicles and a less energy
efficient city (in addition to other impacts such as a loss of valuable agricultural land, increasing
commuting times, increasing pollution and the loss of some natural resource areas and cultural
landscapes). Public transport is an essential component of a sustainable, low-carbon city, yet
providing such services is unviable in low-density cities. Experience in South American cities
indicates that costs of public transport are double per passenger-km in sprawling cities compared
with dense cities.
A doubling of the occupancy to 60% from 30%, as a result of the creation of a denser city, will
decrease the cost per passenger-km for public transport, reducing the capital requirements for an
effective public transport system to manageable levels. Encouraging a denser city through spatial
and urban development planning (e.g. through a Spatial Development Framework) has the effect
of increasing the viability and decreasing the costs of public transport. Overall, this makes for a
more energy efficient city.
Figure 26: Transport sector demand-side costs of Densification Scenario
Note that the Efficiency and PV Scenario includes a raft of energy efficiency and renewable energy
interventions across all sectors, which is why it has a big impact vs. BAU. The Densification
32 | P a g e
Scenario includes densification on top of all these interventions, which is why it does not bring
down the costs as much as the Efficiency and PV Scenario (it only includes one extra intervention).
KEY ISSUES 12: SIGNIFICANT INSTALLATION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY OR USE OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES INTRODUCES THE
ISSUE OF SUPPLY VARIABILITY INTO PLANNING. BALANCING THE GRID NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED CAREFULLY IN THIS
REGARD.
Both embedded solar PV and electric vehicles introduces variability into the local grid. The amount
of variability depends on the scale of rollout/use of these options. EThekwini Municipality is well
aware of these potential risks and has already commissioned a study as to the potential impact on
the grid of various uptake rates of electric vehicles in the municipal area.24
Next steps:
 Research on the potential embedded solar PV uptake and its potential impact on the local
grid
KEY ISSUES 13: BIOFUELS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DECREASE CARBON EMISSIONS GREATLY, BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT
ON BIOFUEL PRODUCTION METHODS AND TYPES OF PLANT FEEDSTOCK USED
The Biofuels Scenario (modelled on top of the ETPV Scenario) results in slightly higher overall
demand-side costs (figure 27), due to the higher cost of biofuels when compared to conventional
liquid fuels and the lower calorific value of the fuel (discussed below).
The Biofuels Scenario consumes more energy than a similar scenario that excludes biofuels (figure
28). This is due to the lower energy content per litre of biofuel when compared to conventional
liquid fuel. Yet the greenhouse gas emissions are greatly reduced (figure 29), because the fuel is
assigned as carbon neutral in LEAP: burning of biofuels creates emissions, but the plant stock used
to create biofuel removes carbon. It should be noted that this may not be the case, as overall
biofuel emissions are highly dependent on biofuel production methods and the type of plant
feedstock used.
Biofuels have the potential to decrease the overall emissions pathway, but careful consideration
needs to be given to the impacts of land-use change, potential competition with land used for
food crops and overall emissions created from the biofuel production process.
A 2007 study on renewable energy sources suitable for eThekwini recommended two bio-fuel
sources that do not compete with the food industry: bio-ethanol production from sugar cane
waste and bio-diesel production from algae. An industry update at the end of the report mentions
the failure of the first company to enter the bio-diesel from algae market. It was recommended
that a more detailed assessment of biodiesel options should be made before proceeding with any
specific technology.25
24
“The Impact of Plug-In Electric Vehicles on Long-Range Demand Forecast of Distribution Networks - eThekwini Case
Study,” G. Brand, J. Roesch, NETGroup S.A
25
"A Catalogue of Renewable Energy Sources fit for eThekwini" by Marbek Resource Consultants Ltd. For eThekwini
Municipality, Jun 2007
33 | P a g e
Figure 27: Demand-side costs of Biofuels Scenario
Figure 28: Energy demand of Biofuels Scenario
34 | P a g e
Millions
Greenhouse gas emissions
60
55
tCO2e
50
45
40
35
30
Business As Usual
Efficiency and PV
2040
2039
2038
2037
2036
2035
2034
2033
2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
25
Biofuels
Figure 29: Greenhouse gas emissions of Biofuels Scenario
Next steps:
 Detailed assessment of biodiesel options and their environmental and social impacts
should be made before proceeding with any specific technology
7. Way Forward
Recommended energy efficiency and electricity supply interventions:

Efficient lighting in residential, commercial, industrial and local government sectors

High-pressure solar water heating in mid- to high-income households, low-pressure
systems in low-income households

Efficient HVAC systems in commercial, industrial and local government sectors

Efficient motors in the industrial sector

Efficient street and traffic lighting in local government

Efficient water heating in local government

Efficient local government vehicles

Efficient local government pumps (e.g. sewerage system)

Road to rail freight modal shift

Private to public transport modal shift

Efficient driver behaviour campaign (e.g. to increase car occupancy)

Efficient private vehicles
Next steps:
35 | P a g e

Align actions with existing municipal policies and priorities, and engage with key municipal
departments and other players to ensure buy-in

Development of business plans for key projects, including definition of responsibilities,
financing sources, timeframes and key players to be involved

Exploration of financing needs for local renewable energy industry development and an
effective public transport system and how such financing may be sourced

Research on the comparative costs of public vs. private transport infrastructure

Detailed assessment of biodiesel options and their environmental and social impacts
should be made before proceeding with any specific technology

Tackling peak oil would require a paradigm shift in how cities work – local government
authorities need to start considering this

Undertake detailed analysis on job creation potential of different energy supply options
and how to provide incentives or other measures to maximise local job creation

Explore the design of electricity tariffs that will preserve municipal revenue in the face of
energy efficiency and embedded renewable energy

Research on the potential embedded solar PV uptake and its potential impact on the local
grid

Detailed electricity sector analyses, including:
-
Promotion of renewable energy supply, including engaging with national government,
NERSA and Eskom around the city’s role in this regard
-
Potential for demand-side (efficiency) measures to reduce infrastructure upgrading or
development costs, and the resulting impact on cost-benefit of efficiency measures
8. Annexures
8.1.
Annexure A: Rationale for selection of demand-side interventions
Intervention
Impact potential*
Used?
Notes
Replacement of
incandescent bulbs
with CFLs
Replace CFLs and
incandescent with LEDs
Replacement of geyser
with SWH or heat
pumps
Efficient showerheads
Significant
Yes
Technology available and cost effective
Significant
Yes
Technology available and costs are reducing
Significant
Yes
Technology available and cost effective
Medium / low
Yes
Ceilings (low income)
Low
No
Unclear impact in conjunction with efficient water
heating interventions. Was modelled separately, i.e.
households would either install efficient water heating
or efficient showerheads.
Likely to improve comfort levels on houses but energy
saving uncertain
Residential
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Smart meters
Unclear
No
Time of Use tariffs /
ripple control
Geyser blankets
Low
No
Medium / Low
Yes
Geyser pipe insulation
Low
No
Cooking to gas
Low
No
Hotboxes
Low
No
Efficient fridges
Potential for
significant
improvement in
fridge efficiency
Potentially
significant if
effective awareness
campaign launched
Yes
Efficient HVAC system
Significant
Yes
Efficient water heating
Medium/low
Yes
Efficient lighting
Significant
Yes
Although conflicting info around impact exists, this is
such a high component of building energy use it needs
to be addressed. Behavioural impact alone is often
big.
Data on water heating in sector is available and the
sector is a target for SWHs and efficient water heating
programmes. Most water heating in the commercial
sector is already through LPG; not electricity.
Technology readily available and cost effective.
Efficient refrigeration
Low
Yes
Data on impact available
Efficient motors
Low
No
Impact not easily quantifiable for sector.
Variable speed drives
Medium
No
Impact not easily quantifiable for sector. Consider for
future.
Efficient HVAC system
Medium
Yes
Data on impact available
Efficient lighting
Medium
Yes
Compressed air
Medium
Yes
Data available and a focus of the national EEDSM
programme
Data on impact available
Efficient motors
Significant
Yes
Data on impact available.
Variable speed drives
Significant
Yes
Data on impact available
Mechanical equipment
Medium
Yes
Data on impact available
Process heating
Low
Yes
Data on impact available
Process steam
Low
Yes
Data on impact available
Pumps and valves
Low
Yes
Data on impact available
Efficient refrigeration
Low
Yes
Data on impact available
Efficient HVAC system
Medium
Yes
Efficient water heating
Significant
Yes
Although conflicting info around impact exists, this is
such a high component of building energy use it needs
to be addressed. Behavioural impact alone is often
big.
Data on impact available
Behaviour
No
Mainly demand (rather than energy) intervention, and
impact and rollout practicalities and costs not clear.
Just demand, not energy intervention
Data on impact, penetration and geyser stock existing
efficiency not easily available. Modelled in conjunction
with installation of efficient showerheads.
Not significant, and savings unclear. Implementation
can be included with geyser pipe insulation program.
Medium/hi impact on electricity, but less so on energy
– fuel switching. Consider for future modelling.
Very effective for household but small overall impact
in sector and uptake rate uncertain.
Introduction rate and cost implications not clear.
Modelled using long lead-in times, i.e. assume shift to
more efficient options as older fridges break (not
retrofit of existing)
Difficult to quantify. Consider for future model
revisions.
Commercial
Industrial
Local Government
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Efficient lighting
Significant
Yes
Technology readily available and cost effective
Efficient motors
Medium
Yes
Data on impact available
Efficient street lights
Significant
Yes
Data available
Efficient traffic lights
Medium
Yes
Efficient vehicle fleet
Medium
No
Data available and complete retrofit has been
completed
Data unavailable
Modal shift (road to
rail)
Transport: Passenger
Medium
Yes
Broad data available and this option is a focus
nationally and locally
Modal shift (private to
public)
Efficiency in private
vehicles (diesel and
petrol): includes
electric vehicles, hybrid
vehicles, more fuel
efficient cars
Efficiency in public
vehicles: shift from
petrol to diesel
minibus taxis, and from
conventional bus to
BRT
Behaviour change
(increase in occupancy)
Significant
Yes
Significant
Yes
Modelled as shift from private vehicles to bus and
train
In model reflects as overall improvement in private
vehicle fuel efficiency
Medium
Yes
BRT is a more efficient option than conventional
buses, but should be seen in conjunction with a drive
towards a modal shift from private to public transport.
Very significant
Yes
NMT
Low
No
Due to the huge amount of energy consumed by
private passenger transport, any increase in vehicle
occupancy has a large impact.
Uncertain impact
Transport: Freight
* References: Eskom DSM municipal briefing v7 (23/05/2008); Sustainable Energy Africa Energy Efficiency Spreadsheet
for Cape Town Energy Efficiency Awareness Programme; City Energy Support Unity (CESU) Energy Efficiency Tool
8.2.
Annexure B: Technical report
A technical report is available on request. It includes details of the data collection, assumptions,
modelling and analysis undertaken.
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