Perils of Perception
FOURTEEN COUNTRY STUDY
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
© Ipsos
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
1
• This study is based on a survey run on
Ipsos Global @dvisor, between 12-26
August 2014
• The research is based on an international
sample of 11,527 adults aged 18-64 in
the US and Canada, and age 16-64 in all
other countries. Sample size is
• Global @dvisor is conducted monthly in
approximately 1,000 per country, with the
24 countries around the world via the
exception of Belgium, Hungary, Poland,
Ipsos Online Panel.
South Korea and Sweden where each
have a sample of approximately 500
• For this study, 14 countries with high
internet penetration were included:
• Data are weighted to ensure that the
Australia, Belgium, Canada, France,
sample's composition reflects that of the
Great Britain, Germany, Hungary, Italy,
adult population according to the most
Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain,
recent Census data in each country
Sweden and the United States of America
• The “point difference” figures that show
differences between the “actual” and
“average guesses” may not match a
straight subtraction. This is due to
rounding, as the calculation is
conducted using decimal places
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
© Ipsos
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
2
Comparing our
misperceptions
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
© Ipsos
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
3
INDEX OF
IGNORANCE
(Least accurate at top)
1st
Italy
2nd
US
3rd
South Korea
4th
Poland
5th
Hungary
6th
France
7th
Canada
8th
Belgium
9th
Australia
10th
Great Britain
11th
Japan
13th
Germany
Sweden
13th
Sweden
Spain
12th
14th
14th
11th
Spain
10th
GB
7th
6th
Canada
9th
8th
Belgium
4th
France
Poland
2nd
US
12th
Germany
5th
Hungary
Japan
Australia
3rd
South Korea
1st
Italy
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
© Ipsos
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
4
IN YOUR
OPINION WHAT
PERCENTAGE OF
GIRLS AGED
BETWEEN 15
AND 19
GIVE BIRTH
EACH YEAR?
% POINT DIFFERENCE
TOO HIGH
US
+21
AVG.
GUESS
ACTUAL
24
3
Poland
+17
18
1
Italy
+17
17
0.5
Hungary
+14
16
2
Canada
+14
15
1
Great Britain
+14
16
3
Australia
+14
15
2
Germany
+14
14
0.4
South Korea
+13
13
0.2
Spain
+13
14
1
12
0.6
+11
11
0.7
+10
11
0.5
8
0.7
France
Belgium
Japan
Sweden
+12
+7
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
© Ipsos
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
5
IN YOUR
OPINION WHAT
% OF THE
POPULATION
% POINT DIFFERENCE
TOO HIGH
Italy
+23
AVG.
GUESS
ACTUAL
30
7
US
+19
32
13
Belgium
+19
29
10
28
10
France
+18
DO YOU THINK
ARE
Hungary
+14
16
2
Poland
+14
14
0.4
IMMIGRANTS
TO THIS
COUNTRY?
Canada
+14
35
21
Great Britain
+11
24
13
Spain
+11
23
12
Germany
+10
23
13
Japan
+8
10
2
South Korea
+8
10
2
+7
23
16
35
28
Sweden
Australia
+7
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
© Ipsos
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
6
OUT OF EVERY
100 PEOPLE
ABOUT HOW
MANY DO YOU
THINK ARE
MUSLIM?
% POINT DIFFERENCE
TOO HIGH
AVG.
GUESS
ACTUAL
France
+23
31
8
Belgium
+23
29
6
20
2
Canada
+18
Australia
+16
18
2
Great Britain
+16
21
5
Italy
+16
20
4
US
+14
15
1
Spain
+14
16
2
19
6
17
5
7
0.4
Germany
+13
Sweden
Hungary
+12
+7
South Korea
+5
5
0.4
Poland
+5
5
0.4
Japan
+4
4
0.4
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
© Ipsos
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
7
OUT OF EVERY
100 PEOPLE
ABOUT HOW
MANY DO YOU
THINK ARE
CHRISTIAN?
% POINT DIFFERENCE
TOO LOW
TOO HIGH
+13
South Korea
AVG.
GUESS
ACTUAL
42
29
Japan
+10
11
2
Hungary
+9
62
53
58
58
Germany
Italy
-14
69
83
France
-14
49
63
Spain
-15
62
77
Poland
-15
79
94
Australia
-16
67
85
Belgium
-18
46
64
Sweden
-19
48
67
Great Britain
-20
39
59
Canada
-21
49
69
US
-22
56
78
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
© Ipsos
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
8
OUT OF EVERY
100 PEOPLE
ABOUT HOW
MANY DO YOU
THINK ARE
OVER 65?
% POINT DIFFERENCE
TOO HIGH
Italy
+27
Poland
+27
AVG.
GUESS
ACTUAL
48
21
42
15
Canada
+25
39
14
Spain
+25
43
18
37
14
Australia
+23
US
+22
36
14
Hungary
+22
40
18
Belgium
+22
41
19
France
+20
38
18
Great Britain
+20
37
17
40
21
Germany
+19
Japan
+16
41
25
South Korea
+16
32
16
33
19
Sweden
+14
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
© Ipsos
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
9
OUT OF EVERY
100 ELIGIBLE
VOTERS
% POINT DIFFERENCE
France
Italy
TOO LOW
-23
-21
AVG.
GUESS
ACTUAL
57
80
54
75
Great Britain
-17
49
66
ABOUT HOW
MANY DO YOU
THINK
Hungary
-17
47
64
60
76
43
59
VOTED IN THE
LAST
ELECTION?
Spain
-14
55
69
Germany
-14
58
72
72
85
South Korea
Japan
Sweden
-16
-16
-13
Canada
-10
51
61
US
-10
57
67
-9
84
93
42
49
85
89
Australia
Poland
Belgium
-7
-4
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
© Ipsos
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
10
OUT OF EVERY
100 PEOPLE
OF WORKING
AGE
% POINT DIFFERENCE
TOO HIGH
Italy
+37
South Korea
+32
Hungary
+28
AVG.
GUESS
ACTUAL
49
12
32
8
39
11
US
+26
32
6
ABOUT HOW
MANY DO YOU
THINK ARE
Poland
+25
34
9
31
8
46
25
UNEMPLOYED
AND
LOOKING
FOR WORK?
France
29
9
Belgium
+23
Spain
+21
+20
Australia
+17
23
6
Great Britain
+17
24
7
Sweden
+16
24
8
Canada
+16
23
7
Japan
+15
19
4
20
6
Germany
+14
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
© Ipsos
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
11
WHAT DO YOU
THINK THE
% POINT DIFFERENCE
TOO LOW
TOO HIGH
South Korea
+9
AVG.
GUESS
ACTUAL
89
80
Great Britain
+3
83
80
France
+3
85
82
Sweden
+3
85
82
WILL BE OF A
Germany
+2
82
80
BORN IN
2014?
Belgium
+1
81
80
Spain
+1
82
81
LIFE
EXPECTANCY
Australia
+0
82
82
Canada
-+2
80
82
US
-+2
78
80
Japan
-+3
81
84
-4
78
82
72
77
68
75
Italy
Poland
Hungary
-5
-7
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
© Ipsos
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
12
Looking at
the data
in
National
a different
Perceptions
way
• By plotting the data on a chart
of average guess versus the
actual figure we can see the
scale of misperception and the
real figures in each country.
• The dashed line on each chart
is a 45 degree line. Countries
above the line show where
people have, on average,
guessed too high while flags
below show where people are
too low compared with the
actual figure.
• In very few cases the flag is on
the dashed line, indicating a
correct average guess by the
population of a country.Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
© Ipsos
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
13
IN YOUR OPINION, WHAT
PERCENTAGE OF GIRLS AGED
People across the world hugely
overestimate the proportion of
teenagers aged 15-19 who give
birth each year..
BETWEEN 15 AND 19 YRS
GIVE BIRTH EACH YEAR?
25
Average guess %
20
15
10
5
0
0
1
2
3
4
% Girls aged between 15 and 19 years that give birth each year
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
© Ipsos
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
14
Across the 14 countries, the public
think immigration is over twice the
actual level – the average guess is
that 24% of the population was born
abroad, when the actual figure is
11%.
WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THE
POPULATION DO YOU THINK ARE
IMMIGRANTS TO THIS
COUNTRY?
40
35
Average guess %
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
% Immigrants to this country
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
© Ipsos
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
15
OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE
ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK
ARE MUSLIM?
People massively overestimated the
proportion of Muslims in every
country. In France people guessed
31% of the population are Muslim,
when the actual figure is only 8%.
35
Average guess %
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
% Muslims
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
© Ipsos
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
16
OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE
ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK
ARE CHRISTIAN?
In contrast to the Muslim question,
majority-Christian countries tend to
underestimate how many people
count themselves as Christian.
100
90
Average guess %
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
% Christians
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
© Ipsos
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
17
The issue of an ageing population is
overestimated across the study. In
Italy people think nearly half the
population (48%) are 65+, when it
is actually 21%.
OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE
ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK
ARE OVER 65?
50
45
Average guess %
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
% Over 65
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
© Ipsos
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
18
Across the study people are
pessimistic about democratic
engagement. On average people
guess that 58% voted in their last
major election, when in fact 72%
did.
OUT OF EVERY 100 ELIGIBLE
VOTERS ABOUT HOW MANY DO
YOU THINK ARE VOTED IN THE
LAST ELECTION?
90
80
Average guess %
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
% Voted in last election
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
© Ipsos
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
19
OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE OF
WORKING AGE ABOUT HOW
MANY DO YOU THINK ARE
Unemployment is greatly
overestimated without exception. In
Italy, this is particularly apparent
where the average guess is that
49% are unemployed, compared
with an actual rate of 12%.
UNEMPLOYED AND LOOKING
FOR WORK?
Average guess %
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
% Unemployed and looking for work
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
© Ipsos
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
20
People across the study were much
more perceptive about lifeexpectancy than most other areas.
However some nations such as
South Korea are too optimistic while
Hungarians are too pessimistic.
WHAT DO YOU THINK THE LIFE
EXPECTANCY WILL BE OF A
CHILD BORN IN 2014?
90
88
Average guess
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
Average life expectancy
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
© Ipsos
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
21
National
National
Perceptions
Perceptions
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
© Ipsos
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
22
Australia
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
© Ipsos
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
23
PERILS OF
PERCEPTION
IN
Aussies tend to be wrong when asked
about the basic make-up of their
population and the scale of key social
issues such as immigration and
unemployment.
AUSTRALIA
Actual
%
15-19 girls that
gave birth
Average guess
%
Muslim
%
Unemployed
%
Immigrants
%
Over 65
%
Christian
%
Voted
93
84
%
Life expectancy
82
82
61
15
2
23
18
2
6
28
37
35
45
14
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
© Ipsos
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
24
According to official statistics the percentage of
the Australian population that was born in
another country is actually 28%. Why do you
think the percentage is much higher?
PERILS OF
PERCEPTION
IN
AUSTRALIAIMMIGRATION
Respondents who thought immigration was
more than double the actual figure said the
main reason they over-estimated is because
they believe illegal immigrants enter the
country without being counted
People come into the country
illegally so aren’t counted
42%
I still think the proportion is
much higher
42%
What I see in my local area
39%
What I see when I visit other
towns/cities
38%
I was just guessing
32%
Information seen on TV
33%
% who thought
immigration is
56% or more
Information seen in
newspapers
15%
The experiences of friends and
family
Other
Base: Asked of all who said 56%
17%
11%
5%
I misunderstood the question
1%
Don’t know
1%
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
© Ipsos
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
25
PERILS OF
PERCEPTION
IN
AUSTRALIA
CRIME
Please tell me whether you think the following statement is true or false:
The murder rate is rising in Australia
60%
50%
40%
55%
30%
20%
19%
10%
%
TRUE
FALSE (Correct)
26%
Don't Know
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
© Ipsos
PERILS OF PERCEPTION
26