26/03/2014
The Dutch transport sector
Menno Menist, Managing Director of Panteia
The Dutch transport sector as it used
to be
An old saying:
Let them produce it in Germany,
The Dutch will transport it
2
1
26/03/2014
Number of enterprises (2012)
Road
IWW
Rail
11.500 enterprises
5.750 ships/2000
enterprises
7 Railway undertakings
3
Bankruptcies per modality
Modality
2012
2013
Source
Road
127
131
NIWO
IWW
21
11
Faillisementen.com
Rail
0
0
Faillisementen.com
4
2
26/03/2014
Composition
Road
IWW
Rail
82% 10 or less
licenses
23% - 1 person
48% - 2 persons
16% - 3 to 5 persons
9% 5 to 10 persons
3% 10+ persons
14% > 200 employees
1% more than 100
licenses
86% < 200 employees
Employment
Road
IWW
Rail
120.000
14.000
2.100
5
Transport volume 2012
Road
IWW
Rail
620 million tonnes
278 million tonnes
42 million tonnes
Maritime transport volume 598 mln tonnes
6
3
26/03/2014
Volumes – total based on KTV
Development of transport volumes in the Netherlands
(in million tons per year)
IMPACT of the crisis in 2009, volumes are still lower than
before crisis!!
1200
1100
1000
900
m ln tons
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
year
Road
Rail
IWW
7 / 15
Volumes (2) - road
Development of transport volumes in the Netherlands
(in million tons per year)
900
800
700
mln tons
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
year
Domestic
Export
Import
8
4
26/03/2014
Volumes (3) - inland waterways
Development of transport volumes in the Netherlands
(in million tons per year)
350
300
m ln tons
250
200
150
100
50
0
year
Domestic
Export
Import
9
Volumes (4) – rail
Development of transport volumes in the Netherlands
(in million tons per year)
50
45
40
35
mln tons
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
year
Domestic
Export
Import
10
5
26/03/2014
Transportindex
Measuring daily performance in NL for freight road, rail,
IWT, maritime, from 1st June 2011 (=100)
Good start 2014 in the Netherlands
Long term forecasts
rail transport
Recalibration of forecasts
Scenarioberekeningen spoorgoederenvervoer
Scenarios:
oorspronkelijke scenario's en herijking
Blue before crisis
Red after
crisis
oorspronkelijk
herijking
180
Change after crisis:
- 2010: - 16 %
- 2020: - 14 %
- 2030: - 16 %
- 2040: - 19 %
160
Volume in miljoen ton
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2010
LG 2020
GG 2020
HV 2020
LG 2030
GG 2030
HV 2030
LG 2040
GG 2040
HV 2040
Scenario
12
6
26/03/2014
Long term forecasts, container
Recalibration of forecasts,
container transport still grow but at lower
pace
Volumes containervervoer HV/GG scenario
100,00
90,00
80,00
60,00
50,00
40,00
Miljoen ton
70,00
30,00
20,00
10,00
0,00
2007
2008
2009
2010
containers HV prognose TNO studie
2014
2020
2030
containers HV prognose TNO studie, herzien door NEA
2040
GG- prognose containers TNO studie
Jaar
13
Forecasts
road and inland waterway
No official long term scenarios and Forecasts do exist for road
and IWT
Rail necessary for infrastructure and capacity measures
Due to crisis refrained from official forecasts, only short/medium
term forecasts till 2015 for attaining policy goals
See table below, in billion tkm on national territory
2005
2008
2009
2010
2011
2015
Road
54
56
49
50
51
56
IWT
43
45
37
38
40
44
Rail
6
7
6
6
6
7
Totaal
103
108
92
95
97
107
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7
26/03/2014
Transport performance
Tonkilometers
Road
IWW
Rail
75 billion tonkm
46 billion tonkm (on
Dutch territory)
6 billion tonkm (on
Dutch territory)
15
Profitability
Road
IWW
Rail
Domestic: -3.3%
International: -5.9%
-1%
+/- low profitability
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8
26/03/2014
Profitability Dutch transport
companies under pressure
3,0
2,0
1,0
0,4
-0,1
0,0
-0,3
-0,5
-0,8
-1,0
-0,4
-1,1
-1,2
-1,2
-1,4
-1,9
%
1,0
0,9
0,8
-2,0
-2,0
-2,5
-2,4
-2,4
-2,1
-1,9
-2,6
-2,8
-3,3
-3,0
-4,2
-4,0
-5,0
-5,1
-5,0
-5,6
-5,7
-6,0
-7,0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Domestic
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013*
International
Bron: Panteia/NEA i.o.v. NIWO
Marcel Bus
March 25, 2014
Growing differences between freight
price and cost price Dutch haulier
155
145
135
125
115
105
95
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Development freight price domestic transport
Development freight price international transport
Cost development full truck load
Cost development NL-Germany 500km
Marcel Bus
March 25, 2014
9
26/03/2014
Available fleet in the Netherlands
5,0
4,5
4,0
million tons
3,5
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
year
Small vessels (< 1000 ton)
Medium vessels (1000 - 2000 ton)
Large vessels (> 2000 ton)
19
Available fleet in the Netherlands (2)
7,0
Dry (barges)
6,0
Liquid (tankers)
million tons
5,0
4,0
3,0
2,0
1,0
0,0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
year
20
10
26/03/2014
Inland waterway
DRY CARGO
Cost index
Price index
325
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
Index (1998 - 1st quarter = 100)
21
Inland waterway
LIQUID CARGO
Cost index
Price index
325
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
Index (1998 - 1st quarter = 100)
22
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26/03/2014
Cost structure in the Netherlands
Cost structure
Road
IWW
Rail
48% wage
21% fuel
16% capital
8% other
35% wage
29% fuel
30% capital
6% other
13% wage
25% energy
41% capital
11% network
and overhead
Energy costs component increases over time
In road transport wage component still dominant
In rail transport capital costs dominant
23
Cost structure road transport,
2007 vs 2012
Shares per cost type
Q1 2012
Shares per cost type
Q1 2007
tires
banden (1,4%)
verzekering (2,3%)
insurance
banden (1,5%)
tires
verzekering (2,0%)
insurance
brandstof
fuel (17,4%)
brandstof
fuel (21,0%)
repair and
Personnel
maintenance
reparatie
en onderhoud
(5,0%)
costs
personeelskosten
(48,1%)
repair and
reparatie
maintenance
en onderhoud
Personnel
costs
personeelskosten
(49,2%)
(4,4%)
depreciation
afschrijvingen (9,7%)
afschrijvingen (10,2%)
depreciation
road tax
motorrijtuigenbelasting
road tax
motorrijtuigenbelasting
(1,3%)
(1,0%)
other operating
costs
overige bedrijfskosten
(8,7%)
rente (3,1%)
other operating
costs
overige bedrijfskosten
(10,0%)
rente (3,7%)
interest
interest
Bron: Panteia/NEA
Marcel Bus
March 25, 2014
24
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26/03/2014
Difference especially in labor costs
Comparison of labor costs for drivers in Eastern European countries
1 January 2012 (NL = 100)
100
(index,NL
NL=
= 100)
laborLoonkosten
costs (index,
100)
90
83,0
80
70
60
55,0
53,4
47,8
50
45,8
40
29,6
30
26,2
21,7
20
10
0
BG
CZ
HU
PL
RO
SI
SK
TR
Nationaliteit
vervoerder
nationality
haulier
Bron: Panteia/NEA
Marcel Bus
March 25, 2014 25
The Dutch transport sector, now and
then, and in the FUTURE
Now and even more in the future:
Let them produce it in Germany,
The Dutch will organise the transport
26
13