ROI GROCERY MARKET REVIEW
Data to 5th January 2014
1
© Kantar Worldpanel
OVERVIEW
Market Overview
•
The market is seeing positive growth on an annual basis of +0.8%
but the latest quarter has been more difficult with a -0.2% decline.
•
While there has been price inflation, shoppers continue to
compensate for price increases by purchasing on offer and trading
down to cheaper lines. However increased volume bought over the
Christmas period together with price inflation has resulted in year
on year household spend increasing by +0.7%.
•
Irish households are making more trips this period, with frequency
up by +0.8%.
•
Spend per trip has remained steady, spend per household has
increased.
•
Although the private label share of the grocery market slowed
during the lead up to the Christmas period, it is still well ahead of
last year.
2
© Kantar Worldpanel
Total Irish Grocery Market Value and Growth - 52 and 12 w/e
Irish grocery market sales have grown over the 52 week period by 0.8%,
but are down by 0.2% for the 12 week period
+0.6%
+0.8%
+1.4%
-0.2%
3
© Kantar Worldpanel
Total Irish Grocery Market Volume Sales and Growth - 52 and 12 w/e
Growth of 1.3% in volume sales in the 12 week period
Volume sales flat over the 52 week period
+1.1%
0.0%
-0.2%
+1.3%
4
© Kantar Worldpanel
Total Grocery - Sector Value Share & Growth 52w/e
Fresh Food, Ambient Food and Toiletries driving growth in Grocery over the full year
+1.3%
+1.9%
-3.3%
+0.7%
-3.1%
+1.4%
-7%
© Kantar Worldpanel
Total Grocery - Sector Value Share & Growth 12w/e
The decline in 12 week sales is coming from sales losses year on year in
Healthcare, Frozen Food, Alcohol and Fresh & Chilled Food
Share of total trolley
Ambient Food
30%
Household 7%
Fresh & Chilled
Produce
47%
Frozen 5%
Toiletries 4%
Healthcare 1%
Alcohol 7%
Total Trolley
-0.2% value
6
© Kantar Worldpanel
Analysis by Category – Growth/Decline?
Decline in Frozen Meat, Frozen Poultry & Game, Healthcare and Fruit & Veg & Salad
12w Total Grocery - value % change by category
7
© Kantar Worldpanel
Large Majority of Markets Seeing Price Inflation, in particular Toiletries and Alcohol
% Inflation
14
6.1
5.3
4.6
2.6
1.8
0.1
8
© Kantar Worldpanel
Change in Inflation Rates and Household Spend 12 w/e
Inflation for the Irish grocery market is just under 3%
% change year on year – 12 week period
7%
6%
5%
4%
2.93%
3%
2%
Inflation
0.70%
1%
HH Spend change
0%
-1 %
-2 %
1111 1112 1113 1201 1202 1203 1204 1205 1206 1207 1208 1209 1210 1211 1212 1213 1301 1302 1303 1304 1305 1306 1307 1308 1309 1310 1311 1312 1313
9
© Kantar Worldpanel
How are
shoppers
coping?
Store choice
Spend less
Buy on deal
Trade down
10
© Kantar Worldpanel
Trended View of Consumer Coping Strategies
Trading down product or price tier still remains the key method of dealing with inflation
while shoppers are back to buying more volume
Promotion/Product Change
Store Choice
Inflation
Volume per buyer
HH Spend Change
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
05 Jan 14
08 Dec 13
10 Nov 13
13 Oct 13
15 Sep 13
18 Aug 13
21 Jul 13
23 Jun 13
26 May 13
28 Apr 13
31 Mar 13
03 Mar 13
03 Feb 13
06 Jan 13
09 Dec 12
11 Nov 12
14 Oct 12
16 Sep 12
19 Aug 12
22 Jul 12
27 May 12
29 Apr 12
01 Apr 12
04 Mar 12
05 Feb 12
08 Jan 12
11 Dec 11
13 Nov 11
-8.0%
24 Jun 12
-6.0%
11
© Kantar Worldpanel
Changes in Consumer Shopping Behaviour - 12w/e
Shoppers are buying more often with frequency increasing by +0.8%. While spend per trip has remained
steady, spend per Household has increased by €9.
Average frequency
increased by
+0.8%
Increase in 12w
spend per HH
(+0.7%)
Average basket
spend is at
-0.1%
12
© Kantar Worldpanel
Share of Market - Branded, Private Label and No Brand Name
While Branded share had seen some share growth in the run up to Christmas, branded sales are down
compared to last year.
12w Total Grocery – value %
13
© Kantar Worldpanel
Private Label Value Share of Total Irish Grocery Market
Private Label share of the grocery market slowed as we moved towards Christmas however still
performed well ahead of last year
12w Total Grocery – Private Label value %
Private Label
14
© Kantar Worldpanel
Branded and Private Label Inflation – 12w/e
Inflation in Private Label goods beginning to drop back
8
7
6
5
4
3
Branded
Private Label
2
1
0
15
© Kantar Worldpanel
Private Label % Value Share by Category
Where is Private Label Strong? – Meats and staples are key for Private Label
36.4
36.6
36.8
37.6
39.6
39.7
40.7
43.9
44.1
47.9
48.4
48.5
48.5
50.3
52.9
53.2
55.2
56.1
60.4
62.1
64.9
65.8
67.6
67.7
71.5
76.1
12w Total Grocery - Categories where Private Label overtrade
16
© Kantar Worldpanel
Private Label % Value Share by Category
Where is Private Label weaker? – Categories with multiple strong brands and toiletries perform well
36.4
35.4
32.9
30.9
28.1
25.6
25.4
25.3
24.9
24.7
22.9
20
19.5
19.4
18.8
18
17
16.4
14.7
14.5
12.2
12
11.9
11.3
11.3
11.2
10.3
10.2
10.1
10
9.3
8.4
6.1
12w Total Grocery - Categories where Private Label undertrade
17
© Kantar Worldpanel
Market Share and Growth by Branded and Private Label Tier
Premium Private Label in growth while Value Private Label declines with shoppers most likely to trade up
around Christmas
% Value Share
% Value Growth
Standard PL
32.3
Value PL
-0.2
Total Market
Premium
No Brand Name
1.6
2.4
Branded
-1.4
Branded
9.8
No Brand
Name
-5.4
9.5
Premium
53.8
Value PL
Standard PL
-6.5
3.2
12 w/e 05 Jan 14
18
© Kantar Worldpanel
Average price per pack (€)
€3.09
Premium PL
Shoppers trading up to Premium Private
Label this period while Standard Private
Label still gains from Branded
€1.5m
€2.61
Branded
€203k
€4.8m
€1.75
€1.05
Standard PL
€503k
Value PL
© Kantar Worldpanel
Total Grocery – % Packs Sold On Deal – 52 w/e
Shoppers perceive that the % of packs sold on deal is consistent over time
% Packs Sold on Deal
14.3
14.1
14.2
52 w/e 08 Jan 12
52 w/e 06 Jan 13
52 w/e 05 Jan 14
© Kantar Worldpanel
Total Grocery - Sold on Deal Trended 12 w/e
Promotional activity still hovers around the 14% mark of grocery sales however promotional
activity is higher than this time last year
14.5
14.3
14.6
14.7
14.2
13.7
13.4
12
w/e
31
Mar
13
13.7
12
w/e
03
Mar
13
13.9
14.2
12
w/e
03
Feb
13
14
14
13.8
13.7
14.1
14
14.1
13.9
12 12 12 12 12 12 12
w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e
22 19 16 14 11 09 06
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
12 12 12 12 12 12 13
14.2
12 12 12 12
w/e w/e w/e w/e
01 29 27 24
Apr Apr May Jun
12 12 12 12
14.2
14.5
14.3
12
w/e
04
Mar
12
14.3
12
w/e
05
Feb
12
14.4
14.2
12
w/e
08
Jan
12
14.3
13.9
% Packs sold on deal
12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e
28 26 23 21 18 15 13 10 08 05
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14
© Kantar Worldpanel
Total Grocery - Sector Share Sold on Promotion – % Packs
Promotional activity on Alcohol is behind what we saw last year
12 w/e 06 Jan 13
12 w/e 05 Jan 14
% Packs sold on deal by sector
29.2
26.1
25.3
23.2
21.6 21.3
15.8
17
16.5
15
13.8 14.5
10.6
11.4
6
4.1
Toiletries
Alcohol
Frozen
Ambeint
Household
Total Grocery Fresh & Chilled
Healthcare
© Kantar Worldpanel
Bathroom Toiletries & Take Home Savouries Have the Highest % of Packs Sold On Deal,
While Healthcare and Dairy Products Have the Lowest Percentages.
12w Total Grocery - pack % sold on deal by category
23
© Kantar Worldpanel
Cross Border Grocery Trade Update
© KantarWorldpanel
Worldpanel
© Kantar
Total Cross Border Sales – Share of ROI Grocery Market – 52 w/e
Cross Border Sales continue to decline now making up just under 2% of sales (€173m) down 6%
on last year.
% Pack Share
% Value share
2.3
2.6
2.1
1.9
2.2
2
52 w/e 08 Jan
12
52 w/e 06 Jan
13
52 w/e 05 Jan
14
52 w/e 08 Jan 52 w/e 06 Jan 52 w/e 05 Jan
12
13
14
© Kantar Worldpanel
Total Cross Border Sales – Share of Irish Grocery Market – 12 w/e
Cross border share declined over Christmas despite seeing an increase over the pervious periods.
Cross Border Value % Share of ROI Grocery Market – 12w/e
26
© Kantar Worldpanel
Total Cross Border - % Penetration
16% of ROI shoppers have shopped across the border in the last 12 weeks
17.9 17.7
16.7
15.6
15.4
14.9
14.1
14.6 14.3
13.5 13.4
13.9 14.2
14.7
15.7 15.4 15.8
16.2 16.6 16.4
14.4 14.6
13.2
13.0 13.1
12 12 12 12 12
12 12
w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e
04 01 29 27 24
08 05
Jan Feb Mar Apr Apr May Jun
12 12 12 12 12
12 12
14.5
16.0
12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
12 12
12 12
w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e
11 09 06 03 03 31 28 26 23
16 14
22 19
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun
12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
12 12
12 12
12 12 12
12 12
12 12
w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e
10 08 05
15 13
21 18
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
13 13 14
13 13
13 13
Total Cross Border
27
© KantarWorldpanel
Worldpanel
© Kantar
UK GROCERY
28
© KantarWorldpanel
Worldpanel
© Kantar
UK Grocery – Value Sales
UK market showing growth year on year as inflation plays a part
£25,911,730
52w/e UK Grocery
Value sales
£103,825,000
12w/e UK Grocery
Value sales
£25,226,650
£100,257,400
+2.7%
+3.6%
2013
2014
2013
2014
© Kantar Worldpanel
4%
2%
05-Jan-13
10-Nov-13
Market Growth
13-Oct-13
15 Sep 13
18 Aug 13
07 July 13
09 June
13
12 May 13
14 Apr 13
17 Mar 13
17 Feb 13
20 Jan 13
23 Dec 12
25 Nov 12
28 Oct 12
30 Sep 12
02 Sep 12
05 Aug 12
08 Jul 12
10 Jun 12
13 May 12
15 Apr 12
18 Mar 12
19 Feb 12
22 Jan 12
25 Dec 11
27 Nov 11
30 Oct 11
02 Oct 11
04 Sep 11
07 Aug 11
10 Jul 11
12 Jun 11
15 May 11
% change
UK Market Growth and Inflation
12w/e- UK Market Inflation & Growth
Inflation
7%
6%
5%
2.90%
3%
2.50%
1%
0%
30
© KantarWorldpanel
Worldpanel
© Kantar
How do GB & Ireland grocery markets compare?
– Market Size
– €9b
– £104b
– €5,500
– stg£3,900
– Market Growth
– 0.8%
– +3.7%
– Price Inflation
– 2.9%
– +2.5%
– Grocery Spend per HH
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, data to 5th Jan 2014
© Kantar Worldpanel
47.3
46.8
47.9
47.1
47.5
47.8
47.8
47.3
49.9
49.5
49.2
49.2
49.5
48.7
48.5
48.9
49.3
49.3
49.2
48.8
48.6
48.7
48.9
48.2
47.8
47.1
48.5
48.8
49
48.9
48.6
48.4
48.3
48.3
48
48.2
47.4
46.8
46.4
46
46.6
47.5
Private Label % Market Share
Private label rising in the UK up to 47.9%
32
© Kantar
Worldpanel
© Kantar
Worldpanel