The Irish Shopper Landscape
David Berry
Commercial Director
david.berry@kantarworldpanel.com
0035314808910
© Kantar Worldpanel
-€600
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–World leader in understanding Consumer & Shopper Behaviour
–What people buy, how they use it & why
–Expertise base on hard, quantitative evidence
–40 years experience in 50+ countries
–Our aim is to help our clients to identify & capture growth
2008
Shop 241 Times
2010
+4%
Shop 250 Times
Within 6.5 Different Stores
+7%
Within 6.9 Different Stores
Full Store Trolley Missions
-9%
Top Up Baskets
Spend €25.6 Each Time
-13%
Spend €22.3 Each Time
Adding to €6,172 on Groceries
-10%
Adding to €5,572 on Groceries
© Kantar Worldpanel
how have shoppers cut back to save this
€600?
Vol Per
Shopper
N/C
Trading
Down Shop
Deflation
-€58
-€248
Trading
Down -€294
Product
© Kantar Worldpanel
Peak share of
9.6% latest
quarter
Dec 09 =
20% HH’s
Discounter
growth
Shopper promiscuity has
put more focus on offers
All stores have
pushed Own Brand
© Kantar Worldpanel
The recessionary environment has been tough for
suppliers & retailers
We have had to fight short-term promiscuity to hold
on to our shoppers
Longer-term brand building has taken a back seat
© Kantar Worldpanel
GROWTH
© Kantar Worldpanel
September 9th 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
-S
05 ep- 0
02 Oc 8
-N t-0
30 ov 8
-N -0
28 ov 8
-D -0
25 ec 8
-J -0
22 an 8
-F -0
22 eb 9
-M -0
19 ar 9
- -0
17 Apr 9
-M -0
14 ay 9
-J -0
u 9
12 n0
09 -Ju 9
-A l-0
06 ug 9
-S -0
04 ep- 9
- 0
01 Oc 9
-N t-0
29 ov 9
-N -0
27 ov 9
-D -0
24 ec 9
-J -0
21 an 9
-F -1
21 eb 0
-M -1
18 ar 0
- -1
16 Apr 0
-M -1
13 ay 0
-J -1
u 0
11 n1
08 -Ju 0
-A l-1
ug 0
-1
0
07
HOW HAS THIS IMPACTED THE GROCERY MARKET?
4 weekly trended YoY Growth
4.7
4.5
3.3
2.3
2.6 2.2
3.1
-1.0
-1.9-1.8
-0.5
-1.2
-4.0
-4.6
-4.8
-5.3 -4.9
-6.3
-3.6
-5.6
-6.4
-6.9
-7.5
-7.6-7.5
-8.4
© Kantar Worldpanel
WE NOW HAVE MORE CATEGORIES WITH PRICES GOING UP
Number of Markets in each Inflation Band
121 Categories With Deflation
125 Categories With Inflation
70
60
33
31
14
10
5
<- 20
7
5
-20 -> - -15 -> - -10 -> 15
10
5
6
2
-5 -> 0
0 -> 5
3
5 -> 10 10 -> 15 15 -> 20 20 -> 25 25 -> 30 30 ->
Inflation Bands
12 w/e 08 Aug 2010
11
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VALUE GROWTH IS NOW A REALISTIC TARGET
12 w/e 08 Aug 2010
12
© Kantar Worldpanel
SOME OF THE CATEGORIES DRIVING A RETURN TO GROWTH
In home
treats
More ethnic
occasions
‘Value’
convenience
Family
enjoyment
© Kantar Worldpanel
FROZEN FOOD IS THE FIRST MACRO GROWTH AREA
Growth
0.5
Frozen Food
Fresh & Chilled
-0.9
Ambient
-1
Total
-1.8
Household
-1.8
-3.3
Healthcare
-7
Alcohol
Toiletries
-7.7
Decline
© Kantar Worldpanel
RETAILER WINNERS & LOSERS
27.4
25.3
23.6
22.6
VALUE SHARE
20.5 20.1
7.0
6.6
5.6
6.0
3.2
Tesco Group
Dunnes Stores
Supervalu
12 w/e 09 Aug 09
Superquinn
Lidl
3.6
Aldi
12 w/e 08 Aug 10
© Kantar Worldpanel
12 w/e 08 Aug 10
12 w/e 11 Jul 10
12 w/e 13 Jun 10
12 w/e 16 May 10
12 w/e 18 Apr 10
12 w/e 21 Mar 10
12 w/e 21 Feb 10
12 w/e 24 Jan 10
12 w/e 27 Dec 09
12 w/e 29 Nov 09
12 w/e 01 Nov 09
12 w/e 04 Oct 09
12 w/e 06 Sep 09
12 w/e 09 Aug 09
12 w/e 12 Jul 09
12 w/e 14 Jun 09
12 w/e 17 May 09
12 w/e 19 Apr 09
12 w/e 22 Mar 09
12 w/e 22 Feb 09
12 w/e 25 Jan 09
12 w/e 28 Dec 08
23
12 w/e 30 Nov 08
24
12 w/e 02 Nov 08
12 w/e 05 Oct 08
12 w/e 07 Sep 08
12 w/e 10 Aug 08
% share of grocery spend
Tesco have really hit the accelerator pedal since late 2009
28
27.4
27
26
25
Loyalty card
promotion
22.6
22
© Kantar Worldpanel
16
WHAT’S DRIVING TESCO GROWTH?
€2.5M €6.3M €2.6M
© Kantar Worldpanel
This is Lassie
This lassie is
less loyal...
Lassie is loyal
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THREE OF THE MAIN 5 RETAILERS INCREASE LOYALTY
33.4
34.8
35.5
34.5
35.5
35.3
27.9
VALUE LOYALTY
25.3
12.0
Tesco Group
Dunnes Stores
Supervalu
12 w/e 09 Aug 09
Superquinn
13.1
Discounters
12 w/e 08 Aug 10
© Kantar Worldpanel
Metro , 15th July 2010
Tesco to create
750 jobs with
€113 million
investment across
7 new stores
Winning regionally is also strategically important
Headlines from August to October 2009 in Ireland.
20
© Kantar Worldpanel
Increasing 12 w/e loyalty by 1% back
to 35.5%...
+€13.2m
21
© Kantar Worldpanel
Where is this likely to come from?
Size of loyalty opportunity by trading area
€6.1m
Fresh & Chilled
€3.4m
Ambient Food
Alcohol
Household
€1.3m
€0.9m
Frozen Food
€0.6m
Toiletries
€0.5m
Healthcare
Total Loyalty
Opportunity
for Dunnes
€13.2m
€0.2m
Value of +1% loyalty to Dunnes by area
© Kantar Worldpanel
© Kantar Worldpanel
Value erosion has halted with signs now of a
slow road to recovery
The agenda will
now turn to the
building blocks
within store to fuel
this momentum
24
© Kantar Worldpanel
Back to black in Ireland as we progress
through 2010
12 w/e 8th August 2010
25
© Kantar Worldpanel
Shopper loyalty now increasing for the larger
multiples as shopping around stagnates
Building blocks
will naturally
differ by retailer
How can your
brands generate
loyalty within the
category, as a
building block for
the store overall
26
© Kantar Worldpanel
Basket size now growing again in 2010 as
shoppers favour bigger baskets
More focus on
planned, versus
spontaneous
grocery shopping.
More favourable
environment for
larger pack sizes.
27
© Kantar Worldpanel
+€600
-€600
© Kantar Worldpanel