A Summary Update of the Irish Grocery Market to 26 December 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
Grocery Performance Summary
• The Grocery market continues to show value growth, the latest quarter shows market value
growth of +2.1% year on year.
• Price inflation continues to be the key driver of this return to growth, standing at just under
+4%.
• Branded vs. Private Label: Private label performance has dropped back this period as compared
to the 12 weeks to November as consumers move back to branded for the holidays. Overall the
trend continues to be upwards as the private label value share of the Irish grocery market is up
almost one point compared to same period last year.
© Kantar Worldpanel
How has the grocery market performed this year?
We continue to see growth for the grocery market over shorter periods.
4 weekly trended YoY Growth
2.5
2.1 2.1
3.4
0.1
-0.5
-1.0
-1.2
-4.8 -4.6
-3.6
-4.0
-4.9
-5.3
-5.6
-6.3
-6.9
-7.6 -7.5
-6.4
-7.5
17
-M
14 ay-J 09
u
12 n-0
-J 9
09 ul
-A -09
06 ug-S 09
e
04 p-0
-O 9
01 ct-N 09
29 ov-N 09
27 ov-D 09
e
24 c-J 09
21 an-F 10
e
21 b-M 10
18 ar-A 10
16 pr-M 10
13 ay-J 10
u
11 n-1
-J 0
08 ul
-A -10
05 ug-S 10
e
03 p-1
-O 0
31 ct-O 10
28 ct-N 10
26 ov-D 10
ec
-1
0
-8.4
Source: Kantar Worldpanel
KANTARData
WORLDPANEL:
to 4w/e 26th Dec
4 W/E
2010
26TH DEC 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
HOW IS THE TOTAL GROCERY MARKET PERFORMING?
52 & 12 w/e 26th Dec 2010
Annual Performance
9,436,973
9,108,004
8,894,702
Quarterly Performance
-3.5%
52 w/e 28
Dec 08
52 w/e 27
Dec 09
52 we €000’s
-2.3%
52 w/e 26
Dec 10
2,301,266
12 w/e 28
Dec 08
2,145,830
2,190,358
-6.8%
+2.1%
12 w/e 27
Dec 09
12 w/e 26
Dec 10
12 we €000’s
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 52 & 12 w/e 26th Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
HOW IS THE TOTAL GROCERY MARKET PERFORMING? 4 W/E
4 w/e 26th Dec 2010 - The total grocery market has improved performance on last
year in the 4 week run up to Christmas.
4 we €000’s
868,778
830,400
803,329
-7.5
+3.4%
4 w/e 28 Dec 08
4 w/e 27 Dec 09
4 w/e 26 Dec 10
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 4w/e 26th Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
WHICH SECTOR IS DRIVING QUARTERLY MARKET GROWTH?
12 w/e 26th December 2010 – The food categories continue to see strong value
growth while healthcare suffers
Value share
4.7
% Value change
4.8
3
Frozen Food
1
Fresh & Chilled Food
44.7
44.3
6
Ambient Food
-1
Toiletries
28.3
29.3
Household & Petcare
3.9
6.9
1.5
10
3.8
7.2
1.3
9
Healthcare
12 w/e 27 Dec 09
12 w/e 26 Dec 10
Alcohol
Total Grocery
8
-12
-6
2
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 12 w/e 26th Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
HOW IS TOTAL FOOD PERFORMING?
52 & 12 w/e 26th Dec 2010
Food continues to see growth over the shorter term, driven by Ambient.
7,390,057
7,240,472
-2.0%
7,097,630
- 2.0%
1,774,245
1,667,193
1,717,863
-6.0%
3.0%
52 w/e 28 Dec 52 w/e 27 Dec 52 w/e 26 Dec 12 w/e 28 Dec 12 w/e 27 Dec 12 w/e 26 Dec
08
09
10
08
09
10
52 we €000’s
12 we €000’s
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 52 & 12 w/e 26th Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
HOW IS THE FOOD MARKET PERFORMING ON TRENDED BASIS?
% VALUE GROWTH VS LAST YEAR, 12 WEEKLY TRENDED
4
TOTAL FOOD
1.7
2
3.0
1.9
2.3
0.5
0
-0.8
-2
-3.0
-4
-5.1
-6
-6.0
-8
-7.2
-7.3
-7.3
-7.4
-7.0
12 w/e 27 12 w/e 24 12 w/e 21 12 w/e 21 12 w/e 18 12 w/e 16 12 w/e 13 12 w/e 11 12 w/e 08 12 w/e 05 12 w/e 03 12 w/e 31 12 w/e 28 12 w/e 26
Dec 09
Jan 10
Feb 10
Mar 10
Apr 10
May 10
Jun 10
Jul 10
Aug 10
Sep 10
Oct 10
Oct 10
Nov 10
Dec 10
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 12w/e 26th Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
WHICH SECTOR IS DRIVING MARKET VOLUME (PACK) GROWTH?
12 w/e 26th December 2010 – We are seeing some growth for ambient and
frozen as they recover slightly in pack sales over the Christmas period
Volume share (Pack)
3.6
Volume (Pack) change
3.7
0.5
Frozen Food
-0.8
Fresh & Chilled Food
54.6
54.3
1.9
Ambient Food
Toiletries
-6.0
-1.2
Household & Petcare
28.7
29.3
Healthcare
2.5
7.1
0.6
2.8
2.4
7.0
0.5
2.8
12 w/e 27 Dec 09
12 w/e 26 Dec 10
Alcohol
Total Grocery
-9.3
-1.6
-0.2
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 12 w/e 26th Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 12w/e 26th Dec 2010
12 w/e 26 Dec 10
12 w/e 28 Nov 10
12 w/e 31 Oct 10
12 w/e 03 Oct 10
18.1 18.3 18.3 18.1 17.9
17.6
12 w/e 05 Sep 10
12 w/e 08 Aug 10
12 w/e 11 Jul 10
12 w/e 13 Jun 10
12 w/e 16 May 10
18
12 w/e 18 Apr 10
18.4
12 w/e 21 Mar 10
12 w/e 21 Feb 10
19.7 19.5
12 w/e 24 Jan 10
12 w/e 27 Dec 09
19.0 19.1
12 w/e 29 Nov 09
12 w/e 01 Nov 09
18.5
12 w/e 04 Oct 09
19.1 19.0
12 w/e 06 Sep 09
12 w/e 09 Aug 09
19.5
12 w/e 12 Jul 09
20.2 20.0
12 w/e 14 Jun 09
12 w/e 17 May 09
19.7 19.5 19.8
12 w/e 19 Apr 09
12 w/e 22 Mar 09
12 w/e 22 Feb 09
20
12 w/e 25 Jan 09
Promotional activity is beginning to pick up again but remains behind the
Christmas period last year.
% Value Sold on Deal in Total
Grocery, €
22
19.1
17.0 17.0 17.1
17.8 17.9
16
14
12
10
© Kantar Worldpanel
12
12 w/e 26 Dec 10
12 w/e 28 Nov 10
12 w/e 31 Oct 10
12 w/e 03 Oct 10
12 w/e 05 Sep 10
12 w/e 08 Aug 10
12 w/e 11 Jul 10
12 w/e 13 Jun 10
12 w/e 16 May 10
12 w/e 18 Apr 10
12 w/e 21 Mar 10
12 w/e 21 Feb 10
12 w/e 24 Jan 10
12 w/e 27 Dec 09
12 w/e 29 Nov 09
12 w/e 01 Nov 09
12 w/e 04 Oct 09
12 w/e 06 Sep 09
12 w/e 09 Aug 09
12 w/e 12 Jul 09
12 w/e 14 Jun 09
12 w/e 17 May 09
12 w/e 19 Apr 09
12 w/e 22 Mar 09
12 w/e 22 Feb 09
12 w/e 25 Jan 09
12 w/e 28 Dec 08
33.1
31.1
32
34.3
33
34.2
32.9
33.3
33.1
32.9
35.3
35.1
34.6
34.2
32.8 34
32.9
34.5
34.9
33
32.9
35.1
35
32.9
33.2
33.5 34.7
34.2
32.6
34
34.2
34.3
32.9
32.4
34.5
33.1
34.8
34.7
33
33.3
34.5
33.8
33.5
32.8
32.4
32.2
32.2 33.2
32.333.1
33.3
34.1
30.9
30.4
Private label value share declining in latest 12 week period, while pack
share continues to rise to its highest point in two years
Private Label Share of Grocery
% Value share
% Packs share
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 12 w/e 26th Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
13
6
4
3
Shampoo
4
Toothpaste
Mouthwashes
6
Cider
2
Wash Additives
8
Beer+Lager
8
Bath/Shower Gels
8
Air Fresheners
9
Furniture Polish
15 14 14
13 13 12 12
11
Sauces
Confectionery
Antiseptics
Hot Beverages
Healthcare
Liquid Soap
Sanpro
61
Fabric Conditioners
17 17 17
Wine
Breakfast Cereals
Bread
23 21
20 20
Biscuits
Skincare
Soft Drinks
Savoury Home Cooking
Hand Wash Products
34 33 33 32
31
Bleaches&WC Clnrs
Frozen Prepared Foods
Petfood
Fruit+Veg+Salads
Total Grocery
Frozen Fish
39 39 39
Dairy Products
Toilet Tissues
Sweet Home Cooking
41
Chilled Drinks
Facial Tissues
Kitchen Towels
Frozen Meat
Chilled Convenience
63
Frozen Poultry
Food Wraps
70 69
Fresh Meat
Chilled Bakery
Fresh Fish
Poultry+Game
WHERE IS PRIVATE LABEL STRONG?
81
67
46.5%
Private Label Spend % 12 w/e 26 Dec 10
54
48 47
37
29
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 12 w/e 26th Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
0
Inflation
12 w/e 26 Dec 10
12 w/e 28 Nov 10
12 w/e 31 Oct 10
12 w/e 03 Oct 10
12 w/e 05 Sep 10
12 w/e 08 Aug 10
12 w/e 11 Jul 10
12 w/e 13 Jun 10
12 w/e 16 May 10
12 w/e 18 Apr 10
12 w/e 21 Mar 10
12 w/e 21 Feb 10
12 w/e 24 Jan 10
12 w/e 27 Dec 09
12 w/e 29 Nov 09
12 w/e 01 Nov 09
12 w/e 04 Oct 09
12 w/e 06 Sep 09
12 w/e 09 Aug 09
12 w/e 12 Jul 09
12 w/e 14 Jun 09
12 w/e 17 May 09
12 w/e 19 Apr 09
12 w/e 22 Mar 09
12 w/e 22 Feb 09
12 w/e 25 Jan 09
12 w/e 28 Dec 08
12 W/e 02 Nov 08
12 W/e 05 Oct 08
12 W/e 07 Sep 08
12 W/e 10 Aug 08
12 W/e 13 Jul 08
12 W/e 15 Jun 08
12 W/e 18 May 08
12 W/e 20 Apr 08
12 W/e 23 Mar 08
12 W/e 24 Feb 08
12 W/e 27 Jan 08
12 W/e 30 Dec 07
12 W/e 02 Dec 07
% change
Market Growth & Inflation
Inflation has come down slightly this period, but value growth continues to
improve.
0
0
0
3.92%
2.10%
0
0
Value
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 12 w/e 26th Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
12 w/e 24 Feb 08
12 w/e Mar 08
12 w/e 20 Apr 08
12 w/e 18 May 08
12 w/e 15 Jun 08
12 w/e 13 Jun 08
12 w/e 10 Aug 08
12 w/e 07 Sep 08
12 w/e 05 Oct 08
12 w/e 02 Nov 08
12 w/e 30 Nov 08
12 w/e 28 Dec 08
12 w/e 25 Jan 09
12 w/e 22 Feb 09
12 w/e 22 Mar 09
12 w/e 19 Apr 09
12 w/e 17 May 09
12 w/e 14 Jun 09
12 w/e 12 Jul 09
12 w/e 09 Aug 09
12 w/e 6 Sep 09
12 w/e 4 Oct 09
12 w/e 01 Nov 09
12 w/e 29 Nov 09
12 w/e 27 Dec 09
12 w/e 25 Jan 10
12 w/e 21 Feb 10
12 w/e 21 Mar 10
12 w/e 18 April 10
12 w/e 16 May 10
12 w/e 13 Jun 10
12w/e 11 July 10
12w/e 08 Aug 10
12 w/e 05 Sept 10
12 w/e 03 Oct 10
12 w/e 31 Oct 10
12 w/e 28 Nov 10
12 w/e 26 Dec 10
The number of markets seeing inflation remains high at around 80%
% of Markets with like-for-like Price Inflation
92 92 95 92 90 90
86
74 75 74 73 75 78 72
81 79 80
66
48
40 35 35
34 33
38 40
27 25
50
58
68
25
18 16 20 18 20 20
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 12 w/e 26th Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
16
Grocery Volume (Packs) Growth by Price Brand
The budget tier continues to see growth as shoppers seek cheaper packs
Growth in Grocery sales (Packs)
Change in sales
Share of sales
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 12 w/e 26th Dec 2010
17
© Kantar Worldpanel
What has been the Effect on Shopper Behaviour?
No of Trips per Household
Average Spend per Household
56.7
55.9
€1,359
€1,342
12 w/e 27 Dec 09
12 w/e 26 Dec 10
12 w/e 27 Dec 09
12 w/e 26 Dec 10
Spend per Trip
€23.98
€24.00
SHOPPERS CUT BACK THIS PERIOD:
SHOPPING LESS OFTEN, BUT
MAINTAINING SPEND AT €24 PER TRIP
12 w/e 27 Dec 09
12 w/e 26 Dec 10
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 12 w/e 26th Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
More emphasis on Trolley shops
In the latest period, shoppers are looking to plan ahead more, instead of
smaller top-up shops.
3.4
% change in spend
% change in packs
1.2
0.8
-0.5
-5.5
-8.3
% of spend Destination
1 item
4.2%
Baskets
2-9 items
35.4%
Trolley
60.4%
10+ items
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 12 w/e 26th Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
Brief Overview of the UK
Market
© Kantar Worldpanel
UK Grocery Volume (Packs) Growth by Price Brand
UK are also seeing an increase in budget products, but we are also seeing an increase in the
amount of super premium products bought.
Growth in Grocery sales (Packs)
Change in sales
Share of sales
20
15.9
9
15
11.2
Super
Premium
32.6
Premium
10
5
2.4
1.1
Good
0
-1.3
-5
-0.6
20
Standard
-4.4
-10
All
Budget Standard
Purchasing (Median - (Median 75%)
25%)
Good
(Median
price)
Premium Super Prem
(Median
(Median
+25%)
+75%)
27
Budget
% Packs
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 12 w/e 26th Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
Inflation
7
HH Spend change
12 w/e 26 Dec 10
8
12 w/e 28 Nov 10
12 w/e 31 Oct 10
12 w/e 03 Oct 10
12 w/e 05 Sep 10
12 w/e 08 Aug 10
12 w/e 11 Jul 10
12 w/e 13 Jun 10
12 w/e 16 May 10
12 w/e 18 Apr 10
12 w/e 21 Mar 10
12 w/e 21 Feb 10
12 w/e 24 Jan 10
12 w/e 27 Dec 09
12 w/e 29 Nov 09
12 w/e 01 Nov 09
12 w/e 04 Oct 09
12 w/e 06 Sep 09
12 w/e 09 Aug 09
12 w/e 12 Jul 09
12 w/e 14 Jun 09
12 w/e 17 May 09
12 w/e 19 Apr 09
12 w/e 22 Mar 09
12 w/e 22 Feb 09
12 w/e 25 Jan 09
12 w/e 28 Dec 08
12 W/e 02 Nov 08
12 W/e 05 Oct 08
12 W/e 07 Sep 08
12 W/e 10 Aug 08
12 W/e 13 Jul 08
12 W/e 15 Jun 08
12 W/e 18 May 08
12 W/e 20 Apr 08
12 W/e 23 Mar 08
12 W/e 24 Feb 08
12 W/e 27 Jan 08
UK Grocery evolution – Inflation and shopper reaction
10
9
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
12 w/e 26 Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
UK Grocery update to 26 Dec 2010
– Inflation rate has risen to 3.0 this period and we expect this to continue in the
coming periods.
– 70% of markets are in growth (volume) in the 12 weeks leading up to Christmas.
– The average discount is higher in many stores compared to the same time last
year.
– Households are taking advantage of the increase in promotional activity in the run
up to the festive period.
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 12 w/e 26th Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel