IRISH GROCERY MARKET REVIEW
– Period ending - 25th Dec 2011
© Kantar Worldpanel
OVERVIEW
Market Overview
• The annual market sales are ahead of last year, with
growth of +0.5% year-on-year. The food market is
showing stronger growth (0.9% year on year) than
the non-food market.
• Over the shorter term, market value has increased by
+1% as shoppers buy more volume despite price
inflation, and compensate by purchasing on offer and
trading down to cheaper lines.
• Consumers are making more shopping trips, but
reducing their average spend per trip.
© Kantar Worldpanel
Key themes in the marketplace
Stability
Store Choice
Smaller Trips
Inflation
Trading Down
© Kantar Worldpanel
Annual value of take home grocery (€b)
The period 2001 to 2008 saw average growth of 7%
per annum and overall +58% over the whole period
€9.3
€5.9
€6.3
+8%
€6.7
+6%
€7.1
+6%
€7.5
+6%
€8.0
+6%
€8.6
+7%
+8%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Data to 52 week ending August
© Kantar Worldpanel
Annual value of take home grocery (€b)
The market value declined in 2010 by 6% but has now
stabilised
€5.9
€6.3
+8%
€6.7
+6%
€7.1
+6%
€7.5
+6%
€8.0
+6%
€9.3
€9.3
+8%
+1%
€8.6
+7%
€8.8
€8.9
-6%
+1%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Data to 52 week ending August
© Kantar Worldpanel
Total Grocery Market Value Sales and YOY Growth
The Irish grocery market remains in growth this period with 12w sales up
+1% on this period last year
€8,867,536
€8,910,759
€000s
€9,120,707
€2,147,698
52 w/e 27
Dec 09
-2.8%
+0.5%
52 w/e 26
Dec 10
52 w/e 25
Dec 11
12 w/e 27
Dec 09
€2,188,173
€2,208,986
+1.9%
+1.0%
12 w/e 26
Dec 10
12 w/e 25
Dec 11
© Kantar Worldpanel
ROI Total Grocery Market Volume Sales and YOY Growth
Volume sales are in decline on a yearly basis while growth remains flat
over the shorter term
5,218,577
5,165,940
-1%
5,148,694
-0.3%
1,233,687
1,225,030
-0.7%
52 w/e 27
Dec 09
52 w/e 26
Dec 10
52 we packs
52 w/e 25
Dec 11
12 w/e 27
Dec 09
12 w/e 26
-1.7%
Dec 10
1,228,673
0.3%
12 w/e 25
+0%
Dec 11
12 we packs
w/e 25 Dec 2011
© Kantar Worldpanel
12w Total Grocery – Sectors Value Shares & YoY % Change
Fresh Food, Ambient Food, and Toiletries sectors have driven 12w
growth
Share of total trolley
Total
Grocery
Alcohol*
Ambient Food
31%
Household 7%
Fresh & Chilled
Produce
Healthcare
Household
1
-4.2
-3.2
-2.2
44%
Frozen 5%
Toiletries
Toiletries 4%
Healthcare 1%
Ambient
Food
Fresh &
Chilled
Frozen
Food
Total Trolley
+1.0% value
Alcohol 9%
1.4
1
2.7
-0.2
© Kantar Worldpanel
Ch
d B illed
Sw a ker Drin
yP
eet
ks
Fro Hom r odu
zen
e C cts
Fre Conf ookin
e
sh
g
Po ction
ult
r y+ er y
Ga
me
B
isc
Ho
ui
tB
Oth ever ts
a
er
Toi g es
Can
le
ne tr ies
Pic
F
d
r
kle
uit
Go
+
+
Ta k Tbl S Veg+ ods
ce
S
eH
om +Con alads
eC
dim
on
fec ent
tio
n
Ora ery
D
l
-C
a
Ch
ille iry P ar e
r
d
o
Ta k
e H Conv ducts
e
om
n
e S ienc
e
oft
Dr i
nk
Fre
s
To sh M
eat
tal
Gro
ce
Pe ry
tC
a
Pac Fres r e
h
ket
Ba
Fi s
t
Fro hroo Br ea h
kfa
m
zen
Pr e To ile st
t
pa
Ho
red ries
use
Foo
ho
ld &
Ha ds
Sav
-0.7
ir
C
l
e
ou
ani car e
ry
ng
Ho
-1
me Pr d
Am
s
C
o
-3
bie
He oking
nt
a
B
-3
Ta k aker lthc a
y
re
eH
P
om rod
-3.2
u
eS
avo cts
-3.7
Fro ur ie
ze n s
-4
F
Fi s
Sav roze
h
nP
Alc
ou
-4
o
ry
Ca r ultr y ohol
bo
-4.2
hyd +Gam
e
rts
-6.1
Fro +S nc
ks
zen
-8.7
Me
at -10.1
Ch
ille
10
8.6
8.4
7.7
7.7
5.8
3.6
3.5
3.4
3
2
1.7
1.5
1.3
1.2
1
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
14.2
21.3
Which categories are performing well?
Chilled Drinks has performed best YoY, shoppers also spending more
on Sweet Home Cooking, Frozen Confectionary and Fresh Poultry
12w Total Grocery - value %chg by category
© Kantar Worldpanel
To
il
et r
ie
Ta k
Ho Alco s
e H t Be
ho
l
o
Ta k m e verag
S
Ta k
e
e
o
e H Hom ft Dr s
in
om
eS
avo ks
eC
on
fec ur ies
tio
ne
ry
B
i
s
C
c
h
u
Ho
ille
use
d D its
ho
rin
ld &
Ha ks
C
Fro
ir
zen leani car e
n
Co
nfe g Pr d
ctio s
Fre
ner
Fr
Fro sh Po ozen y
ul
Fi s
zen
Pr e tr y+G h
a
pa
red me
Fo
Pic
Ora ods
kle
+Tb To ta l-Ca
l G re
lS
Ch c e+C roce
ille
ry
on
Fro d Co dime
zen nve
n
nie t
Po
nce
ult
ry
Ch
O
ille ther +Gam
dB
a ke Toile e
ry P tr ies
r od
uct
Fru Fre
s
s
it+
Ve h Fish
Can g+Sa
la
ne
d G ds
oo
Pac
Pe ds
ket t Ca
Br e r e
Sav
ou
Sav
Fre a kfas
r
t
sh
yH
ou
Me
ry
o
m
Ca r
at
e
Sw bohy Cook
eet
in
d
Ho rts+S g
me
nck
Am
s
C
o
D
bie
oki
a
i
r
nt
B a y Pr o ng
ker
d
y P ucts
rod
u
He
alt cts
Fro hc ar
e
zen
Me
at
Ba
thr
oo
m
34.2
32.8
31.3
29.1
29.1
28.6
26.7
25.3
23.3
21.5
20.7
20.4
19.4
19.4
19.3
17.8
17.5
17.4
16.8
15.1
14.8
13.4
13.3
13.3
12.6
12.5
11.5
10.9
10.6
9.2
8.9
8.9
8.4
6.8
Categories with a lot of perceived promotional activity
Toiletries, Alcohol and Drinks have the highest proportion of packs sold
on deal. Staples such as Dairy and Bakery have low promotional levels
12w Total Grocery - pack % sold on deal by category
© Kantar Worldpanel
Change in value sales – Total grocery sectors
Ambient and Fresh performing well over shorter periods
% Value Change
2.2
0.5 1
-4.6-4.2
TOTAL
GROCERY
1.6
0.2
TOTAL
ALCOHOL
0.4
-3.2
-4.6
-4.8
-2.2
TOTAL
HEALTHCARE
TOTAL
HOUSEHOLD
(inc Petcare)
52 w/e Change
1.3 1.4
3.1
1.0 1 2.2
1.0
2.7 3.6
0.2 -0.2
-1
TOTAL
TOILETRIES
12 w/e Change
AMBIENT
GROCERIES
TOTAL FRESH
& CHILLED
FROZEN
4 w/e Change
w/e 25 Dec 2011
11
© Kantar Worldpanel
What is the size of the total food market?
The total food market shows stronger growth than non food this
period
7,271,991
7,099,092
-2.4%
7,165,029
+0.9%
1,673,455
1,720,741
+2.8%
52 w/e 27
Dec 09
52 w/e 26
52 w/e 25
Dec 10
Dec 11
52 we €000’s
12 w/e 27
Dec 09
12 w/e 26
Dec 10
12 we €000’s
1,753,271
+1.9%
12 w/e 25
Dec 11
w/e 25 Dec 2011
© Kantar Worldpanel
Growth for the Food market – Quarterly
The food market has shown growth on the same period last year
Total food
3
2.8
2.8
3
2
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.6
2
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.0
1
1.1
0.8
0.5
1
0.5
0.4
0
12 w/e
28 Nov
10
12 w/e
26 Dec
10
12 w/e
26 Dec
10
12 w/e
23 Jan
11
12 w/e
20 Feb
11
12 w/e
20 Mar
11
12 w/e
17 Apr
11
12 w/e
15 May
11
12 w/e 12 w/e
12 w/e
12 Jun 10 Jul 11 07 Aug
11
11
12 w/e
04 Sep
11
12 w/e
02 Oct
11
0.1
12 w/e
30 Oct
11
12 w/e
27 Nov
11
12 w/e
25 Dec
11
12 w/e 25 Dec 2011
© Kantar Worldpanel
Change in Household Spend (%) and Inflation Rate
Household Spend change is holding behind inflation, though both are
now in positive growth year on year
% change year on year – 12 weekly period
Inflation % chg
HH Spend % chg
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
May-11
Apr-11
Mar-11
Feb-11
Jan-11
Dec-10
Nov-10
Oct-10
Sep-10
Aug-10
Jul-10
Jun-10
May-10
Apr-10
Mar-10
Feb-10
Jan-10
Dec-09
Nov-09
Oct-09
Sep-09
Aug-09
Jul-09
Jun-09
May-09
Apr-09
Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-09
-12
Dec-08
-10
© Kantar Worldpanel
100%
12 w/e 24 Feb 08
12 w/e Mar 08
12 w/e 20 Apr 08
12 w/e 18 May 08
12 w/e 15 Jun 08
12 w/e 13 Jun 08
12 w/e 10 Aug 08
12 w/e 07 Sep 08
12 w/e 05 Oct 08
12 w/e 02 Nov 08
12 w/e 30 Nov 08
12 w/e 28 Dec 08
12 w/e 25 Jan 09
12 w/e 22 Feb 09
12 w/e 22 Mar 09
12 w/e 19 Apr 09
12 w/e 17 May 09
12 w/e 14 Jun 09
12 w/e 12 Jul 09
12 w/e 09 Aug 09
12 w/e 6 Sep 09
12 w/e 4 Oct 09
12 w/e 01 Nov 09
12 w/e 29 Nov 09
12 w/e 27 Dec 09
12 w/e 25 Jan 10
12 w/e 21 Feb 10
12 w/e 21 Mar 10
12 w/e 18 April 10
12 w/e 16 May 10
12 w/e 13 Jun 10
12w/e 11 July 10
12w/e 08 Aug 10
12 w/e 05 Sept 10
12 w/e 03 Oct 10
12 w/e 31 Oct 10
12 w/e 28 Nov 10
12 w/e 26 Dec 10
12 w/e 23 Jan 11
12 w/e 20 Feb 11
12 w/e 20 Mar 11
12 w/e 17 Apr 11
12 w/e 15 May 11
12 w/e 12 Jun 11
12 w/e 10 Jul 11
12 w/e 07 Aug 11
12 w/e 04 Sep 11
12 w/e 02 Oct 11
12 w/e 30 Oct 11
12 w/e 27 Nov 11
12 w/e 25 Dec 11
Inflation is evident in over 70% of the markets
% of Markets with like-for-like Price Inflation
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
© Kantar Worldpanel
15
12w Total Grocery - changes in consumer shopping behaviour
Irish households are shopping more often this year, but spending less
per trip
Trips per Household
55.3
53.6
56.3
12 w/e 27 Dec 09
12 w/e 26 Dec 10
12 w/e 25 Dec 11
Average frequency
increased by
+5.0%
Avg Spend per Household
€1,360
12 w/e 27 Dec 09
€1,341
€1,353
12 w/e 26 Dec 10
12 w/e 25 Dec 11
€12 increase in
12w spend per HH
(+0.9%)
Avg Spend per Trip
€24.60
€25.00
€24.10
12 w/e 27 Dec 09
12 w/e 26 Dec 10
12 w/e 25 Dec 11
Average basket
spend reduced by 3.9%
© Kantar Worldpanel
-15.0%
25thDec11
30thOct 11
04th Sep 11
Promotion/Product Change
10th Jul 11
15th May 11
20th Mar 11
23rd Jan 11
28th Nov 10
03rd Oct 10
08th Aug 10
Store Choice
13th June 10
18th Apr 10
21st Feb 10
27th Dec 09
01st Nov 09
Inflation
06th Sep 09
12th Jul 09
17th May 09
22nd Mar 09
25th Jan 09
Volume per buyer
30th Nov 08
05th Oct 08
10th Aug 08
15th Jun 08
20th Apr 08
24th Feb 08
30th Dec 07
12w Total Grocery - Consumer Coping Strategies Trended
Trading down and buying on offer has been a key theme for shoppers
since the start of 2008
HH Spend Change
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
© Kantar Worldpanel
Shoppers are increasingly turning to Non Branded
Products – (Private Label and No Brand Name*)
46%
45%
44%
43%
Christmas 2011:
42%
Branded Sales:
Private Label:
2007
2008
2009
2010
-1%
+6%
2011
*No brand name includes loose fruit & Veg, loose meat etc.
18
© Kantar Worldpanel
Grocery Packs Growth by branded, no brand name* and
Private label tier.
Standard and value PL in growth and also non branded products
Growth in Grocery sales (Packs)
Share of sales
5
Standard PL
4.0
4
31
3
2
2
2
1
Value PL
2.4
0.8
Premium
0.3
25
0
No Brand
Name
-1
-2
Branded
-3
40
-2.8
-3.3
-4
Total
Market
Branded
No Brand
Name
Premium
PL
Value PL
Standard
PL
12 w/e 25 Dec 11
*No brand name includes loose fruit & Veg, loose meat etc.
© Kantar Worldpanel
w/
e2
7D
12
ec
09
w/
e2
4J
12
an
w/
10
e2
1
Feb
12
w/
10
e2
1M
12
ar
w/
10
e1
8A
12
pr
w/
10
e1
6M
ay
12
10
w/
e1
3J
un
12
10
w/
e1
1J
12
ul 1
w/
0
e0
8A
12
ug
w/
10
e0
5S
12
ep
w/
10
e0
3O
12
ct 1
w/
0
e3
1O
12
ct 1
w/
0
e2
8N
12
ov
w/
10
e2
6D
12
ec
w/
10
e2
3J
12
an
w/
11
e2
0
Feb
12
w/
11
e2
0M
12
ar
w/
11
e1
7
A
12
pr
w/
11
e1
5M
12
ay
w/
11
e1
2J
un
12
11
w/
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12
ul 1
w/
1
e0
7A
12
ug
w/
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4S
12
ep
w/
11
e0
2O
12
ct 1
w/
1
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0O
12
ct 1
w/
1
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7N
12
ov
w/
11
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5D
ec
11
12
32.7
33.2
32.9
32.6
34.5
34.6
34.5
34.5
34.5
34.5
34.6
34.7
34.1
34.3
33.8
33.7
33.2
32.8
33.1
32.9
32.8
32.6
32.6
32.4
32.5
32.3
31.9
12w Private Label Value Share of Total Grocery Market
Private label value share has dropped back in the run up to
Christmas when consumers tend to prefer brands
Private Label Value Share of Grocery
% Value share
© Kantar Worldpanel
14.3
12 w/e 25 Dec 11
14.1
12 w/e 27 Nov 11
14.7
12 w/e 30 Oct 11
14.5
12 w/e 02 Oct 11
14.3
12 w/e 04 Sep 11
14.1
12 w/e 07 Aug 11
12 w/e 10 Jul 11
14.4 14.4
12 w/e 12 Jun 11
14.3
12 w/e 15 May 11
14.5
12 w/e 17 Apr 11
12 w/e 20 Mar 11
14.5
12 w/e 20 Feb 11
14.4
12 w/e 23 Jan 11
14.6
12 w/e 26 Dec 10
14.0 14.0
12 w/e 28 Nov 10
14.2
12 w/e 31 Oct 10
12 w/e 03 Oct 10
12 w/e 05 Sep 10
12 w/e 08 Aug 10
15.1 15.1
12 w/e 11 Jul 10
14.9
12 w/e 13 Jun 10
12 w/e 16 May 10
12 w/e 18 Apr 10
12 w/e 21 Mar 10
12 w/e 21 Feb 10
12 w/e 24 Jan 10
12 w/e 27 Dec 09
PROMOTIONAL ACTIVITY IN THE TOTAL GROCERY SECTOR
Promotions still remain an important part of the grocery sector –
however compared to 2009 Promotions are back
% Packs Sold on Deal in Total
Grocery,
15.9
15.7
15.3
15.0
14.5
14.7
14.2
14.0
© Kantar Worldpanel
21
5
,6
6
28
€8
,4
2
72
€6
0
,8
9
€6
8
4
2,
50
38
40
0,
33
6
44
2
0,
45
39
38
6,
29
9
8
0,
00
40
6
6,
01
39
6,
40
4
1,
96
44
4
4,
15
39
7
2,
21
39
8
,3
9
86
43
€6
€6
,9
6
72
1
,9
3
1
€6
€6
52
57
,4
4
2
,1
4
€6
€6
69
72
,1
4
2
6
6
€8
04
,7
6
7
SHOPPING BEHAVIOUR THROUGH CHRISTMAS: SALES (4 week sales)
Shoppers cut back spend in Jan as they buy fewer packs, but purchasing
picks up again in Feb
Weighted 000's EUROS
Weighted RPacks / 000
-14.2%
4 w/e 01
Nov 09
4 w/e 29
Nov 09
4 w/e 27
Dec 09
4 w/e 24
Jan 10
+5.8%
4 w/e 21
Feb 10
4 w/e 31
Oct 10
4 w/e 28
Nov 10
4 w/e 26
Dec 10
4 w/e 23
Jan 11
4 w/e 20
Feb 11
© Kantar Worldpanel
SHOPPING BEHAVIOUR THROUGH CHRISTMAS: BASKET SIZE
4w share of purchase occasions by trip type
Increase in big shops in Dec, but normal habits are quickly resumed after
Christmas
1.4
1.5
3
3
11
11
13
3
4
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.5
3
3
3
3
11
10
10
11
13
13
13
13
14
15
1
3
3
11
10
14
15
14
15
Over €150
€101 - €150
13
13
14
15
14
16
14
5
1
13
13
14
3.3
€51 - €100
15
€31 - €50
57
57
51
56
59
58
57
58
58
€21 - €30
49
Less Than €20
4 w/e 01
Nov 09
4 w/e 29
Nov 09
4 w/e 27
Dec 09
4 w/e 24
Jan 10
4 w/e 21
Feb 10
4 w/e 31
Oct 10
4 w/e 28
Nov 10
4 w/e 26
Dec 10
4 w/e 23
Jan 11
4 w/e 20
Feb 11
© Kantar Worldpanel
SHOPPING BEHAVIOUR THROUGH CHRISTMAS: BRANDED
4w value sales
Branded goods have a higher share at Christmas, but this drops back in the new
year as shoppers look to reduce expenditure
Branded
No Brand Name
59.9
57.2
59.1
57.8
54.5
34.2
32.2
32.2
10.6
10.0
57.1
55.7
56.4
33.3
33.2
33.2
11.0
10.4
9.7
31.5
11.3
8.6
4 w/e 29
Nov 09
4 w/e 27
Dec 09
4 w/e 24
Jan 10
54.1
54.3
34.8
34.9
11.1
10.9
32.1
8.8
-14.2%
4 w/e 01
Nov 09
Private Label
+5.8%
4 w/e 21
Feb 10
4 w/e 31
Oct 10
4 w/e 28
Nov 10
4 w/e 26
Dec 10
4 w/e 23
Jan 11
4 w/e 20
Feb 11
© Kantar Worldpanel
UK OVERVIEW
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: DATA TO 25TH DEC 2011
© Kantar Worldpanel
UK Grocery Update to 25 Dec 2011 – Market Trends Summary
• Inflation rate has started to fall this period. Although prices are still rising, the
annual rate at which they are rising has fallen for the first time since late 2010.
• The level of trading down has reduced to 1.8% due to the fall in inflation and less
promotional discount on offer.
• Retailers have changed their focus to concentrate their efforts on price
competitiveness and away from pushing promotions this period.
• With fewer promotions to turn to, consumers are seeking other ways to trade
down. The marked increase in frequency & decline in basket size is indicative of
consumer shopping around for the best deals. We have also seen the rise in
private label sales and decline in branded and also the continued growth in
Budget sales.
• Conversely we see a different tranche of consumers wanting to indulge, possibly
at the expense of eating out, as demonstrated by the Premium growth, both in
brands and retailers.
© Kantar Worldpanel
Grocery Market Sales Performance
10 yrs
3 yrs
1 yr
+51%
-4%
+1%
+58%
+15%
+4%
27
© Kantar Worldpanel
UK Total Grocery - Value & Household Spend % Change Year on Year
Shoppers in the UK also manage to keep spend below rising inflation
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
Inflation
2
HH Spend change
1
0
© Kantar Worldpanel
Trading–Up and Trading–Down Strategies
Shoppers no longer able to save through buying promotions but
use trading down product as the main way to save money
contribution to change %pts
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
Volume change
Store Choice
Promotions
25 Dec 11
27 Nov 11
30 Oct 11
02 Oct 11
04 Sep 11
07 Aug 11
10 Jul 11
12 Jun 11
15 May 11
17 Apr 11
20 Mar 11
20 Feb 11
23 Jan 11
26 Dec 10
28 Nov 10
31 Oct 10
03 Oct 10
05 Sep 10
08 Aug 10
11 Jul 10
13 Jun 10
16 May 10
18 Apr 10
21 Mar 10
21 Feb 10
24 Jan 10
27 Dec 09
-4%
Product Choice
Grocery (RST) 12we 25 Dec 2011 (KWP P1)
29
© Kantar Worldpanel
UK Grocery Volume (Packs) Growth by Price Band
Consumers in the UK continue to trade down to cheaper products.
We see an increase in budget products this year which accounts for
over a quarter of UK grocery sales
Growth in Grocery sales (Packs)
Change in sales
Share of sales
6.0
9
4.5
3.6
4.0
12
Super
Premium
2.4
2.0
1.0
0.6
Premium
32
0.0
Good
-2.0
22
Standard
-4.0
-4.9
-6.0
All
Purchases
Budget
Standard
Good
26
Premium
Budget
Super
Premium
Share
12 W/e 25 Dec 11
© Kantar Worldpanel
Grocery Volume (Packs) Growth by Private Label Tier
Budget Private label also shows growth while branded products fall
back
Growth in Grocery sales (Packs)
Change in sales
Share of sales
7.00E+00
5.8
6.00E+00
6.35
Budget PL
5.00E+00
41.8
3.6
4.00E+00
Standard PL
3.00E+00
2
2.00E+00
1.00E+00
0.6
Premium PL
0.4
0.00E+00
43.5
-1.00E+00
Branded
-0.7
-2.00E+00
All
Purchases
Branded
Premium
PL
Standard
PL
Budget PL
Share
12 W/e 25 Dec 11
© Kantar Worldpanel