A Summary Update of the Irish
Grocery Market to 13 June
2010 – A Presentation to the
National Consumer Agency
© Kantar Worldpanel
Headlines
– The value of the total grocery market has declined by 5.7% in the year to 13
June 2010, dropping to under €9 billion for the last 52 weeks
– However the decline in the market is slowing, with a 2.9% decrease for the 4
week period ending 13 June 2010 compared with same period in 2009.
– Overall the market is likely to move into growth during August driven by 2
factors
– This time last year was particularly tough, so this is now annualising
– Evidence of some price increases beginning to come through
– Overall shoppers are maintaining the number of trips but are spending 4.4%
less per trip, spending €21.91 per trip.
– Budget products are the only products tier showing volume growth.
© Kantar Worldpanel
The total grocery market has lost over €527 million this year, declining by 5.7%
52 we €000’s
+1.2%
12 we €000’s
-5.7%
-1.5%
-4.4%
3
© Kantar Worldpanel
How is the total grocery market performing?
The decline in the market is slowing which is particularly evident in a 4
w/e period.
4 we €000’s
720,969
683,340
-5.2%
663,855
-2.9%
4 w/e 15 JUN 08
4 w/e 14 JUN 09
4 w/e 13 JUN 10
© Kantar Worldpanel
While the market is still underperforming on shorter term, the rate of value
decline is slowing down since the start of the year.
% Value Growth in Total Grocery
5
© Kantar Worldpanel
Private label maintains share at a third of total market value and 35% of volume
Private Label Share of Grocery
6
© Kantar Worldpanel
Inflation is beginning to come back into the grocery sector as 10% more
markets are experiencing inflation compared with the Christmas 2009-10
period
7
© Kantar Worldpanel
The overall level of deflation within the total Grocery market has eased to 2.5% in 12 w/e June 2010
CSO Food & Beverage Inflation
CSO data based on monthly survey
KWP data based on 12-weekly rolling trend
8
© Kantar Worldpanel
So what is the effect on shopper behaviour?
Shoppers maintained the
number of trips but spent 4.4%
less each time
9
© Kantar Worldpanel
The number of markets where shoppers are choosing more expensive or nonpromoted products is on the increase – however, this is largely a result of
‘extreme’ trading down this time last year
10
© Kantar Worldpanel
Budget products are still the only product tier that shows volume growth,
suggesting that trading down still is important in driving volume, but does not
affect value to the same extent as last year
Change in Volume sales
Share of Volume Sales
11
11
© Kantar Worldpanel
Which sector is driving market growth annually? Total Outlets
52 w/e 13 June 2010… All categories are declining over the past year – toiletries have shown
the most decline while ambient groceries decline slower than the market average.
Value growth
Value share
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
5.1
-14
5
-12
-10
-8
47.7
TOTAL ALCOHOL
-7.9
TOTAL HEALTHCARE
-7.7
TOTAL HOUSEHOLD (inc Petcare)
25.7
26.7
4.4
7.4
1.4
8.1
4.2
7.1
1.4
8
52 w/e 14
Jun 09
52 w/e 13
Jun 10
TOTAL TOILETRIES
-2
0
-8.9
-11.5
AMBIENT GROCERIES
-2.1
-5.9
TOTAL FRESH & CHILLED
FROZEN
-4
-5.7
TOTAL RST
47.8
-6
-7.4
© Kantar Worldpanel
Which sector is driving market growth quarterly? Total Outlets
12 w/e 13 June 2010… Like on an annual basis all categories are showing decline, however the
decline among frozen, and fresh and chilled slows on a 12 w/e basis. The total RST decline is
also slowing from -5.7% to -4.4% 12 w/e 13 June 10
Value growth
Value share
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
5.1
-10
5.2
-5
-4.4
TOTAL RST
48.8
48.6
TOTAL ALCOHOL
TOTAL HEALTHCARE
TOTAL HOUSEHOLD (inc Petcare)
25.9
26.4
4.4
7
1.4
7.3
4.3
6.9
1.4
7.2
12 w/e 14
Jun 09
12 w/e 13
Jun 10
TOTAL TOILETRIES
-5.6
-6.8
-6.5
-7
AMBIENT GROCERIES
TOTAL FRESH & CHILLED
FROZEN
0
-2.5
-4.9
-3
© Kantar Worldpanel
Brief Overview of
UK Market
© Kantar Worldpanel
Grocery (RST) 12we 13 June 2010 (KWP P07)
12 we growth
13 Jun 10
16 May 10
18 Apr 10
21 Mar 10
21 Feb 10
24 Jan 10
27 Dec 09
29 Nov 09
01 Nov 09
04 Oct 09
06 Sep 09
09 Aug 09
12 Jul 09
14 Jun 09
17 May 09
19 Apr 09
22 Mar 09
22 Feb 09
25 Jan 09
28 Dec 08
30 Nov 08
02 Nov 08
05 Oct 08
07 Sep 08
10 Aug 08
13 Jul 08
% change
Market Growth & Inflation
Small upturn in market growth as inflation remains at 1.5%
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
12 we inflation
© Kantar Worldpanel
Grocery Coping Strategies
Increased volume is the key contributor to the gap
contribution to change %pts
-0.1
-1.3
1.9
-
0.0
2.3
1.5
Inflation
HH Volume
Change
Store Choice
Promotion
Choice
Product Choice
HH Spend
Change
Grocery (RST) 12we 13 June 2010 (KWP P07)
© Kantar Worldpanel
Volume change
Store Choice
Promotions
.13 Jun 10
16 May 10
18 Apr 10
21 Mar 10
21 Feb 10
24 Jan 10
27 Dec 09
29 Nov 09
01 Nov 09
04 Oct 09
06 Sep 09
09 Aug 09
12 Jul 09
14 Jun 09
17 May 09
19 Apr 09
22 Mar 09
22 Feb 09
25 Jan 09
28 Dec 08
30 Nov 08
02 Nov 08
05 Oct 08
07 Sep 08
10 Aug 08
13 Jul 08
15 Jun 08
18 May 08
contribution to change %pts
Grocery Coping Strategies
The trend continues to be driven by volume but falls back on last period
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
-6%
Product Choice
Grocery (RST) 12we 13 June 2010 (KWP P07)
© Kantar Worldpanel