Velkommen til Executive Master of Management-programmet PROSJEKTLEDELSE Jonas Söderlund • Professor, BI Norwegian School of Management • Professor, KITE, Linköping University • Education: Harvard Business School, MIT, and LiU • Visiting professor/scholar: Cranfield School of Management, Ecole Polytechnique, MIT • Core faculty/director: Advanced Project Management, PMEX Executive MBA, MM PM • Research on: Project-based organizations, project management, Human Resource Management, technical consultants. • Research in collaboration with: Astra Zeneca, Saab, Volvo Cars, Volvo Aero, Tetra Pak, ABB, Skanska, Scania, and Ericsson. “90 percent of all projects fail…” “70 % of all projects exceed time and budget.” “Projects are plagued with failures…” ”We need to rethink our current way of managing projects” ”Projects deliver disappointing value.” “There is something wrong with our theory of project management…” PROJECT Cost overrun (%) Boston’s artery/tunnel project Humber bridge, UK Boston-Washington-New York rail, USA Great Belt rail tunnel, Denmark A6 Motorway Chapel-en-le-Frith/Whaley bypass, UK 196 175 130 110 100 Shinkansen Joetsu rail line, Japan Washington metro, USA Channel tunnel, UK, France Karlsruhe-Bretten light rail, Germany Öresund access links, Denmark Mexico City metro line Paris-Auber-Nanterre rail line Tyne and Wear metro, UK Great Belt link, Denmark Öresund coast-to-coast link, Denmark/Sweden 100 85 80 80 70 60 60 55 54 26 Nature and success of projects 6 • Biased Decision Making “We believe it is true!” Optimism bias and Delusions of success Lovallo & Kahneman (2003) • Strategic Misrepresentation “We know what we are doing, we do it anyway” Inaccurate forecasts and Reference class forecasting Flyvbjerg (2006) Uncertainty – poorly understood or poorly managed? And the No.1 rule of project management is….. 1. Embrace uncertainty. Expect the unexpected. There is far more that we don't know and can't know than what we can anticipate. Be resilient to what life throws at you. Anticipate that your team will learn something along the way that can and should change what you have promised and how you can deliver on your promises. Type of uncertainty Variation Cost, time and performance levels vary randomly, but in a predictable range. Foreseen uncertainty A few known factors will influence, but in unpredictable ways. Unforeseen uncertainty One or more major influence factors cannot be predicted. Chaos Unforeseen events completely invalidate the project’s target, planning and approach. Project manager’s role Managing tasks Managing relationships Troubleshooter and expeditor. Managers must plan with buffers and use disciplined execution. Planning: simulate scenarios, insert buffers at strategic points in critical path, set control limits at which to take corrective action. Planning: identify and communicate expected performance criteria. Consolidator of project achievements. Managers must identify risks, prevent threats and develop contingency plans. Planning: anticipate alternative paths to project goal by using decision-tree technique, use risk lists, contingency planning and decision analysis. Execution: identify occurrences of foreseen risks and trigger contingencies. Planning: increase awareness for changes in environment relative to known criteria or dimensions. Flexible orchestrator and networker and ambassador. Must solve new problems and modify both targets and methods. Planning: build in the ability to add a set of new tasks to the decision tree, plan iteratively. Planning: mobilize new partners in the network to help solve new challenges. Execution: scan the horizon for early signs of unanticipated influences. Execution: maintain flexible relationships, communicate with stakeholders, develop beneficial dependencies. Entrepreneur and knowledge manager. Managers must repeatedly and completely redefine the project. Planning: iterate continually and gradually select final approach, use parallel development. Execution: verify goals on the basis of learning; plan only to next verification, prototype rapidly, make go/no-go decisions ruthlessly. Planning: build long-term relationships with aligned interests, seek partnerships. Execution: link closely with users. leaders in the field, solicit direct and constant feedback from markets. technology providers. Execution: monitor deviation from intermediate targets. Execution: monitor performance against criteria, establish some flexibility with key stakeholders. Execution: inform and motivate stakeholders to cope with switches in project execution. Project Success and Value Creation Project Success Efficiency •Meeting schedule •Meeting budget •Meeting requirements and specifications •Other efficiencies Impact on customer •Customer satisfaction and loyalty •Benefit to customer •Extent of use •Brand name recognition Impact on team •Team satisfaction •Skill development •Team member growth •Team member retention Business and direct success •ROI, ROE •Sales •Profits •Market share •Cash flow •Service quality Preparation for future •New technology •New market •New product line •New core competency •New organizational capability •No burnout 13 Success dimensions Project Success Preparation for future Business and direct success Impact on team Impact on customer Efficiency Short Medium Long Time frame 14 Velkommen til Executive Master of Management-programmet PROSJEKTLEDELSE MM-programmet: 6 samlinger 1. Prosjektifisering og prosjektets fundament 2. Planlegging og håndtering av usikkerhet 3. Organisering, relasjoner og interessenthåndtering 4. Oppfølging, læring og gevinstrealisering 5. Lederskap og teamarbeid i prosjektet 6. Den prosjektorienterte virksomheten Prosjektoppgaven Del 1 Del 2 Del 3 Innsendinger Nr 1 Nr 2 Nr 3 Selvstudium Bolk 1 Bolk 2 Bolk 3 Del 4 Bolk 4 P R O S J E K T O P P G A V E & Nettaktivitet Samling i Nydalen Periode 1 Periode 2 1 2 Periode 3 3 Periode 4 4 E K S A M E N 4 Intensivsamlinger • Samling 1 Prosjektets fundament • Samling 2 Planlegging av prosjekter • Samling 3 Organisering, oppfølging og styring • Samling 4 Lederskap og ledelse i prosjekter og prosjektvirksomheter Prosjektoppgaven ordinært program • Beskrive et virkelig prosjekt, som er i virksomhet i hele eller deler av studieperioden • Analysere en eller flere problemstillinger i tilknytning til prosjektet Prosjektoppgaven avsluttende program • Et lite forskningsprosjekt med ambisjon å bidra til den samlede kunnskapen på området • Sentralt å gjøre seg kjent med forskningslitteraturen på området • Fritt valg av tema, men temaet ska ha tydelig koppling og relevans for prosjektledelsesfaget • Empirisk eller rent teoretisk, kvalitativ eller empirisk • Innledningsvis veiledning i gruppe. Siden mer fokusert individuell veiledning Prosjektledelsegruppen på BI • Anne Live Vaagaasar • Jonas Söderlund • Erling S. Andersen • Jan Terje Karlsen • Ralf Müller • Kim van Oorschot • Donatella de Paoli • Jon Lereim • Morten Juel Hansen • Therese Dille • Anne Berit Swanberg • Andrew Davies • Hans Solli Saether • Katrine Sveen Fjellestad, adm.