Cities as Systems
Dr. Colin Harrison
IBM Distinguished Engineer Emeritus
colinh@us.ibm.com
2013 European Forum Alpbach
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Cities, Systems, and Systems Science*
• City
– “....Cities generally have complex systems for sanitation, utilities, land
usage, housing, and transportation. The concentration of development
greatly facilitates interaction between people and businesses,
benefiting both parties in the process. “
• System
– “A set of connected things or parts forming a complex whole.”
– “A set of things working together as parts of a mechanism or an
interconnecting network.”
• System Science
– “An interdisciplinary field of science that studies the nature of complex
systems in nature, society, and science. “
*See
www.wikipedia.org
2
Example: The Urban Water Cycle
Locate
Consume
 Demand reduction
 On premise leaks & waste
 Discharge to sewers
Capture
and Store
Deliver
 Asset management
 Flow management
 Leaks and overflows
 Interactions with
traffic
 Recovery of treated
water
 Hydrological
modeling
 Weather modeling
 Water Rights
Clean/
Desalinate
 Quality monitoring
 Weather modeling
 Energy for pumping
 Quality monitoring
 Filtration membranes
 Energy for filtration or
desalination
3
MASDAR – A Net-Zero City (2008)
Water
Desalination
Solar Energy
Generation
District
Cooling
PHEV
Transportation
Resource
Supplies
Public Safety
Residential &
Industrial
Consumers
Question: How to allocate resources during a sandstorm?
© 2008 Foster & Partners
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Systems Effects and Resources Constraints
•
•
•
•
“Slack” or excess capacity produces weak interactions
Interactions become stronger when resources are constrained
Under severe constraints – tipping points
Examples:
–
–
–
–
–
Energy: MASDAR, Malta, Canary Wharf/London, Lower Manhattan….
Water: Middle East, US Western States, China (2030)
Transportation: Mexico City, Stockholm, China, India
Finance: <pretty much everywhere>
Economic Development: <pretty much everywhere>
• Conclusion: In the future, we need to take a systems view of
the development and management of cities and regions
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Scaling Laws for Cities
How do cities work as complex systems?
•
Super-linear and sub-linear effects of
scale
– C.f. Biological systems
•
Network Effects
–
–
–
–
•
Density of connections
Infrastructure
Social
Economic
Physical models for how cities grow
– The Hamiltonian of a City
– Kirchoff’s Law
•
Researchers
–
–
–
–
Arizona State University
University of Chicago
NYU CUSP
Santa Fe Institute
1. The Origins of Scaling in Cities, Luis Bettencourt, Science June 21, 2013, Vol. 340, no. 6139, pp. 1438-1441
2. A Theory of City Size, Michael Batty, Science June 21, 2013, Vol. 340, no. 6139, pp. 1418-1419
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Input-Output Models of Urban Systems
How do cities work at the street level?
•
Model cities as providers and consumers of services
–
–
–
–
•
Generate understanding
–
–
–
–
–
•
“service” means any public, private, or individual capability that can be invoked
Agent-based models (individuals, exemplars, organizations…)
Consumption of inputs and production of outputs and by-products
Boundary problems
Resource consumption flows and contributions to local GDP
Environmental impacts
Resilience dependencies
Policy options
Individual decision-making
Researchers
–
–
–
–
EUNOIA
Imperial College, London
U. Chicago
EC CORDIS
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Many Stakeholders in Cities
Citizens
Political Leaders
Engineers
Typology
Policy Makers
Taxonomy
Transportation
Planners
Urbanists
Capture Store
Architects
Urban
Systems
Analysts
Scaling
Networks
Urban
Systems
Information
Economics
Social
Scientists
Civic Groups /
Open Data
Flows &
Connections
Economic
Development
Leaders
Integrated
Simulations
Structure Integrate
Built
Environment
Transportation
Managers
Basic
Resources
Natural
Environment
Industrial
Networks
Energy/Utility
Managers
Public Safety
Managers
Public Health
Managers
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Environmental Managers
The Need for an Urban Science
• Many professions and disciplines study cities
– Independent and un-integrated views, metrics, insights
• Metaphor of 19th century medicine
–
–
–
–
Treatment of symptoms rather than causes
Multiple specialties with isolated diagnoses & treatments
No systemic view of the body
No abstract principles and patterns
• Movement emerging for an Urban Science
– New instrumentation drives new science – Smart Cities, Internet of
Things
– New techniques for understanding complex, interacting systems – Big
Data
• Hence, we have motivation and ability
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Many Sources of Knowledge in Cities
Citizens
Political Leaders
Engineers
Typology
Policy Makers
Taxonomy
Transportation
Planners
Urbanists
Capture Store
Architects
Urban
Systems
Analysts
Scaling
Networks
Social
Scientists
Civic Groups /
Open Data
Flows &
Connections
Structure Integrate
Built
Environment
Economic
Development
Leaders
Integrated
Simulations
Urban
Systems
Economics
Transportation
Managers
Basic
Resources
Natural
Environment
Industrial
Networks
Energy/Utility
Managers
Public Safety
Managers
Public Health
Managers
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Environmental Managers
Global Systems Science* Challenges for Urban Systems
1.
2.
3.
4.
Formal representation of Urban Systems
Flower Collecting & Modeling -> Patterns & Principles
What is the City trying to do?
What real-world questions do we intend to answer?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Healthcare
Education
Crime
“Quality of Life”
Resource consumption & production
Innovation & economic growth
5. Transformation for the future
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Global Research Community Emerging
•
EC CORDIS / Global Systems Science -> Horizons 2020
–
–
–
–
–
–
•
USA
–
–
–
–
–
•
•
U. Barcelona
U. London
Imperial College London
ETH Zurich & Singapore
CNRS, Paris
….?
Santa Fe Institute
Arizona State University / School of Sustainability
U. Chicago
New York University / Center for Urban Science and Progress
Portland State University
China?
Smart Cities Industry
– Arup, IBM, Cisco, Google, Microsoft, Siemens, Veolia…
– US Dept. of Energy / Smart Cities consortium
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Thanks for your attention!
13
Backup
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The Urban Water Cycle
Locate
Consume
 Demand reduction
 On premise leaks & waste
 Discharge to sewers
Capture
and Store
Deliver
 Asset management
 Flow management
 Leaks and overflows
 Interactions with
traffic
 Recovery of treated
water
 Hydrological
modeling
 Weather modeling
 Water Rights
Clean/
Desalinate
 Quality monitoring
 Filtration membranes
 Energy for filtration or
desalination
 Quality monitoring
 Weather modeling
 Energy for pumping
16
The Urban Water Cycle
Recycled/Treated
Natural
Water
Sources
Raw
Water
Transport
Clean
Water
Supply
Consumers
Sewage
Treatment
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MASDAR – A Net-Zero City (2008)
Solar Energy
Generation
District
Cooling
PHEV
Transportation
Water
Desalination
Resource
Supplies
Public Safety
Residential &
Industrial
Consumers
Question: How to allocate resources during a sandstorm?
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Systems Dynamics for Urban Systems
How do cities evolve?
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© 2009 IBM Corporation
People Systems
People to People
People to Services
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Urban Systems are the composition of services derived from
the natural and built environments that we model as a large
number of GIS layers
Social Systems
People
Commerce
Culture
Policy
Services
Energy
Water
Building
Services
Transport
Information
Resources
Water
Air
Oil
Minerals
Infrastructure
Land Use
Roads
Buildings
Utilities
Natural Environment
Topography
Environment
Resources
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Global Systems Science* Challenges for Urban Systems
1.
Formal representation of Urban Systems
•
•
•
2.
Spatial, Temporal, and Domain Integration
•
•
3.
Natural and Man-Made resources
By-products, waste
Economic outcomes
View of “what is the City trying to do?”
•
•
•
7.
Understanding and insight
Support for decision-making
Rule of one hand – tipping points
Resource consumption & production
•
•
•
6.
Patterns & Principles to simplify model building
Scientific Modeling and Practical Modeling
•
•
•
5.
“Single View of the Truth”
What real-world problems are we trying to solve?
The Need for Flower Collecting
•
4.
Structures of components
Interactions (P2P, P2S, S2P, S2S)
Inter-dependencies (P<-S, S<-S)
“Real-time” sensing of interactions, resource consumption & production
Match between intention and capabilities
City as a Design Problem – How well does it work?
Transformation of how the city works
•
•
Transition from Industrial Age to Information Age
Planning for One
*See: http://blog.global-systems-science.eu/
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