Economics 2: Spring 2014 J. Bradford DeLong <jbdelong@berkeley.edu>; Maria Constanza Ballesteros <mc.ballesteros@berkeley.edu>; Connie Min <conniemin@berkeley.edu> http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/econ-2-spring-2014/ Economics 2: Spring 2014: Recap: The Importance of the Market http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/econ-1-spring-2012/ January 29, 2014, 4-5:30 101 Barker, U.C. Berkeley To Your i>Clickers… • We had a gigantic “natural experiment” in the twentieth century. It was: – A. Whether technology could be successfully transferred by Europeans colonizing the rest of the globe. – B. Whether breaking up large firms would restore competition. – C. Whether population growth could be controlled by government command. – D. Whether an economy that got rid of markets could thereby be more prosperous and more egalitarian than one that did not. – E. Whether eliminating communist regimes would accelerate prosperity. How Remarkably?: The High Stalinist Experiment How Much Does Market Organization Matter? What Happened? •They threw away a more than five-fold amplification of productivity by eschewing the market And in Long-Run Perspective… • Things start to happen worldwide between 1500-1800… • Straightforward extrapolation of 8000 BC to 1500 gets us to our 7138 million people in 5200—with probably 100 million people in California with workers earning $2/day and 70% of us in the San Joaquin Valley on our small rice plots… • What happens then? More and more of the world starts to shift from old (ancient, feudal, “Asiatic”, petty-bourgeois) to the “bourgeois” mode of production. • Science, yes. Two heads better than one, yes, but also market… Why Do Markets Work So Well? • Ways of Organizing: – Bureaucratic command-and-control – Thick-tie reciprocity – Market • What gives markets their edge? Concept of a “Reservation Price” • For sellers, the price below which you think you got a really bad deal if you sell—you really, after thinking about it, would rather not have sold at all… • For buyers, the price above which you think you got a really bad deal—you really, after thinking about it, would rather not have bought at all… Ten People Who Do Nothing But Drink Espresso and Give (or Take) Individual Yoga Lessons… • Yoga Teachers – Black Widow (25) – Tyrion Lannister (15) – Captain America (10) – Hannah Horvath (5) – Arnold Schwarzenegger (0) • Yoga Students – WyldStyle (20) – Beyoncé (16) – Macklemore (12) – Adam Sackler (8) – Jerry Brown (4) Bureaucratic Command and Control • Pick a random number from 0-5: 2 • Pick two teachers: Tyrion Lannister and Arnold Schwarzenegger • Pick two students: Macklemore and Adam Sackler • What’s the outcome? – Macklemore happy (+12), Adam happy (+8) – Tyrion annoyed (-15), Arnold meh (0) To Your iClickers… • Why is Macklemore happy with this (bureaucratic) outcome? – A. Because WyldStyle didn’t get to take a yoga lesson – B. Because he is being taught by Tyrion, who is a better yoga teacher (15) than he is a student (12) – C. Because he is getting something he values as much as 12 cups of espresso—plus he doesn’t have to give anything up for it, because it’s a command-andcontrol rather than a market-price world. – D. Because Jerry Brown, who doesn’t like yoga, doesn’t have to take a yoga lesson. – E. Because Black Widow, who really does not like teaching yoga, does not have to teach a lesson. A Competitive Market • Tatonnement: – At a price of 21: 4 teachers (everyone except Black Widow), 0 students: excess supply of 4… – At a price of 1: 1 teacher (Arnold), 5 students: excess demand of 4… – At a price of 16: 4 teachers (everyone except Black Widow), 1 student (WyldStyle): excess supply of 3… – At a price of 6: 2 teachers (Hannah and Arnold), 4 students (everyone except Jerry Brown): excess demand of 2… – At a price of 11: 3 teachers (Hannah (5), Arnold (0), and Captain America(10)), 3 students (WyldStyle (20), Beyoncé (16), and Macklemore (12)): excess demand and excess supply of 0! • Net hedonic calculus: +33 Who Teaches and Who Takes… • Yoga Teachers – Black Widow (25) – Tyrion Lannister (15) – Captain America (10) – Hannah Horvath (5) – Arnold Schwarzenegger (0) • Yoga Students – WyldStyle (20) – Beyoncé (16) – Macklemore (12) – Adam Sackler (8) – Jerry Brown (4) Ladies and Gentlemen, to Your i>Clickers • Which of the following is not true of the competitive market equilibrium? – A. Everyone teaching has a reservation price lower than the market equilibrium price. – B. Everyone shares fairly in the surplus from the fact that some people dislike teaching yoga less than other people like taking yoga lessons. – C. Everyone taking lessons has a reservation price higher than the MEP. – D. A higher price would have someone teaching someone with a lower reservation price than they have. – E. A lower price would leave a deal to be made—a potential student would be left with a higher reservation price than a potential teacher. The Competitive Market in Equilibrium Acts as Though It Starts by Making the Highest-Surplus Deal It Can, and Then the Next Highest, and So On… Ladies and Gentlemen, to Your i>Clickers • Who is happiest as a result of opening-up a competitive market for yoga lessons? – – – – A. Black Widow and Tyrion Lannister B. Captain America and Macklemore C. WyldStyle and Arnold D. Adam Sackler and Jerry Brown Ladies and Gentlemen, to Your i>Clickers • Who is happiest as a result of opening-up a competitive market for yoga lessons? – – – – A. Black Widow and Tyrion Lannister B. Captain America and Macklemore C. WyldStyle and Arnold D. Adam Sackler and Jerry Brown • Why are they happiest? (This is a real question) Ladies and Gentlemen, to Your i>Clickers • Who is happiest as a result of opening-up a competitive market for yoga lessons? – – – – A. Black Widow and Tyrion Lannister B. Captain America and Macklemore C. WyldStyle and Arnold D. Adam Sackler and Jerry Brown • Why are they happiest? – Because: 20-11, and 11-0. They are in the right place at the right time with the right skills Ladies and Gentlemen, to Your i>Clickers • Who is happiest as a result of opening-up a competitive market for yoga lessons? – – – – A. Black Widow and Tyrion Lannister B. Captain America and Macklemore C. WyldStyle and Arnold D. Adam Sackler and Jerry Brown • Why are they happiest? – Because: 20-11, and 11-0. They are in the right place at the right time with the right skills – Do they deserve their happiness? (That’s a rhetorical question) Ladies and Gentlemen, to Your Emails… • I have been driving this point about what markets do in maximizing money-metric surplus home with a pile driver. • It’s the most important thing for you to remember from this course: what markets in commodities that are rival, excludible, known, and internal are good at. • But: Sometime this evening—not now, but before midnight… – Email me at jbdelong@berkeley.edu – Econ 2—Spring 2014 in the subject line – Write two sentences about what left you unconvinced, or what questions you have, or what leaves you skeptical about this demonstration…