UK’s 2050 Pathways Analysis
and Impact on Policy
Robert T. Watson
Defra
24th April 2012
•
2050 Pathways Analysis in the UK
•
How we used 2050 Pathways Analysis in Policy
•
Next steps
2
We first published the 2050 Calculator
in July 2010. It provides a platform for
an ‘energy literate debate’
3
We have since developed different
formats of the Calculator - appropriate
for different audiences
2050 Analysis
Product
Audience
My2050
• Educational tool
• and initial
engagement for
members of the
public
Web Tool
Excel Spreadsheet
• Technical expert
stakeholders
• and well-informed
public
• Technical expert
stakeholders
• and policy-makers
Complexity
4
The Calculator allows you to pick your own
2050 Pathway and compare it with those
from others
 Over 20 000 people submitted their preferred My2050 worlds to DECC
 My2050 has had over 100 000 unique users (Average engagement time
is 15 minutes).
 Next to the 2050 Pathways from HMG, Pathways from different
organisations are published on the webtool , such as:
o Friends of the Earth
o Campaign to Protect Rural England
o National Grid
o Atkins
o Journalists
 DECC Blog discussion between experts and the public
 Excel spreadsheet used in several academic and research studies to
test different assumptions
5
•
2050 Pathways Analysis in the UK
•
How we used 2050 Pathways Analysis in Policy
•
Next steps
6
Climate Change Act 2008 sets out a
clear legal framework for emissions
reductions in the UK
 Ambitious targets to reduce emissions
 Legally binding carbon budgets and
2050 target
 A clear accountability framework
MRV / CCC reports to Parliament
The Climate Change Act triggered a long term
low carbon strategy; culminating in the
Carbon Plan (December 2011)
Before DECC Government’s approach was
fragmented and didn’t sufficiently recognise the
interdependencies between climate change and
energy policy
December 2011:
Durban
December 2010:
Cancun
November 2009:
Copenhagen
2008:
Climate Change Act introduced
legally binding carbon budgets
and aim to reduce emissions by
80% by 2050
July 2009:
Low Carbon
Transition Plan;
October 1st, 2nd and 3rd
2008:
Carbon
Budgets set
DECC
created
May 2010:
General election
PM announces
intention to be
‘Greenest
Government ever’
December 2011:
2011:
Carbon Plan;
Green Deal
4th Carbon
announced;
Budget set; 2050
Futures
Reform or
published
electricity
generation market
DECC’s strategy works to head off two risks:
• Catastrophic climate change
• Failure of secure, safe and affordable energy
supplies for the UK
8
Carbon Budgets ensure that the UK will
reduce emissions by 34% by 2020 and 50%
by Carbon Budget 4
9
Using the 2050 Calculator, HMG published
four ‘2050 Futures’ in the Carbon Plan
10
The ‘2050 Futures’ give a range for each
technology in 2050. The Carbon Plan sets
out how HMG will deliver this range.
Per capita UK energy demand
has to be reduced by at least a
third.
Electricity demand will increase
around 29% to 60%
At least 65% of UK cars need to
be ultra-low emissions vehicles
in 2050
Bioenergy demand will at
minimum threefold from today,
but could be much higher
11
For each sector the Carbon Plan sets out
ambitions for deployment out to 2027 and the
range to 2050.
12
For some technologies it will be cost
effective to ensure early deployment.
13
The Carbon Plan emphasises the Government’s
desire to build a coalition for change in order to
drive the innovation we need to decarbonise
Industry
Government
Public
The public will need to
Governments will
Industry will need to
develop innovative new support the transition adopt the technologies
business models and by providing the right and lifestyle choices to
save money and carbon
frameworks for
technologies
investment
14
•
2050 Pathways Analysis in the UK
•
How we used 2050 Pathways Analysis in Policy
•
Next steps
15
Domestically we are looking at refining the
Pathways analysis and using it for public
engagement
Refining the 2050 Calculator:
• Call for Evidence on cost and air quality
• Update baseline from 2007 to 2010
• Historical data incorporated
Extending the outreach:
• Publish My2050 schools toolkit
• My2050 simulation rolled out to schools and universities and public
opinion testing
• 2050 Picture competition with National Geographic for Kids
16
Internationally we are beginning to look
at outreach opportunities
Supporting other regions and countries in adopting the 2050 Calculator approach
We received interest from several partners, which are moving the open-sourced
analysis forward:
• Walloon 2050 Pathways study with fully refined and improved Calculator. This will
inform/influence a new project on Low Carbon Pathway analysis for the whole of
Belgium.
• Chinese Government Energy Resource Institute adapting analysis for own
purposes.
• Possible additional 2050 Calculator work in Bangladesh, New Zealand, others
Ideas to develop a global model
• Concept to develop a Global Energy and Emissions Calculator with
international partners in private and public sectors
17
THANK YOU!
www.decc.gov.uk/2050
http://my2050.decc.gov.uk/
Katherine.Randall@decc.gsi.gov.uk
ANNEX
The Calculator allows you to pick your own
pathway – and the Carbon Plan provided
some potential Government scenarios
Electricity
Cost Optimised
Renewables; more efficient
33 GW nuclear
18 GW wind
28 GW CCS
27 GW other
renew
33 GW gas
16 GW nuclear
82 GW wind
13 GW CCS
14 GW solar
10 GW marine
24 GW back-up
gas
Buildings
Heating mix of heat
pumps, resistive
heat, biomass
pellets, district heat
Transport
75% ULEVs,
unclear on
modal shift
Industry
Medium growth,
over half of
emissions
captured by CCS
Medium growth,
48% of emissions
captured by CCS
~350 TWh of
bioenergy, low
ambition on land
mgmt
181 TWh of
bioenergy, low
ambition on land
mgmt
Bioenergy
and land
use
7.7m SWIs, 8.8m
CWIs, 100%
house-level
heating systems
100% ULEVs,
high modal shift
Nuclear; less efficient
75 GW nuclear
20 GW wind
2 GW CCS
2 GW hydro
11 GW back-up gas
5.6m SWIs, 6.9m
CWIs, 90% houselevel heating
systems, 10%
network-level
80% ULEVs, 20%
ICEs, low modal
shift
Medium growth,
0% of emissions
captured by CCS
461 TWh of
bioenergy, high
ambition on land
mgmt
CCS; more bioenergy
20 GW nuclear
34 GW wind
40 GW CCS
2 GW hydro
No back-up gas
5.6m SWIs, 6.9m
CWIs, 50% houselevel heating
systems, 50%
network-level
65% ULEVs,
35% ICEs,
medium modal
shift
Medium
growth, 48% of
emissions
captured by
CCS
471 TWh of
bioenergy,
medium ambition
on land mgmt