Egg Market Evolution in the
Mediterranean Basin
Dr. Thomas Elam, President, FarmEcon LLC
Data sources:
• Egg production statistics are from FAO ProdStat database
• Population data to 2050 are from UN population studies
• GDP statistics are from World Bank, World Development Indicators
database
• U.S. egg feed costs are from USDA feed ingredient prices, FarmEcon
costing formula
• All data projections except population are from FarmEcon LLC
70
160
60
140
120
50
100
40
80
30
60
20
40
10
20
0
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Eggs
Meat + Poultry
Milk
MIlk Kg/Capita
Meat - Eggs Kg/Capita
Projected Per Capita Production, Total Meat/Poultry, Milk and Eggs
Meeting Growing Global Food Demand
• Most significant long run challenge facing food producers
• World’s population projected to hit about 9 billion by 2050
• Increasing incomes: demand for animal-based products increases faster than
population.
• Recent global egg production growth averaged about 2.2% per annum
• 2014-2050 conservative 2% average per annum egg demand growth
• Need about 100 million tons of egg production to meet potential 2050 demand
• Meeting potential demand, while producing a safe, environmentally responsible,
welfare friendly egg supply is going to be a major challenge
• Up to the people in this room, and others like you around the world, to make it
possible.
• Opportunities to bring hen productivity up in middle income areas of the world
• Doing so would go a long way toward meeting increasing food demand with
minimal environmental impact.
2013-2050
CAGR
1.13%
0.81%
0.93%
Element (UOM)
Production (per cap)
Production (per cap)
Production (per cap)
Agricultural Item (UOM)
Eggs
Total Meat
Milk
Population
Population
0.81%
Production (tonnes) Eggs
Production (tonnes) Total Meat
Production (tonnes) Milk
1.95%
1.63%
1.75%
Coarse Grains
Coarse Grains
Coarse Grains
Area harvested (Mill Ha)
Yield (MT/Ha)
Production (Mill MT)
-0.25%
1.09%
0.83%
Oilcrops
Oilcrops
Oilcrops
Area harvested (Mill Ha)
Yield (MT/Ha)
Production (Mill MT)
1.08%
1.34%
2.43%
Total Feed Crops
Area harvested (Mill Ha)
0.45%
Mediterranean Egg Industry
Prospects
The Global Scenario
Today $0.38
Meeting Growing Global Food Demand
• Global egg sector is a dynamic, growing, food source
• Per capita consumption benefiting from income growth, especially in Asia
and Africa.
• The Mediterranean Basin region is sharing in this growth
• But compared to the global industry not fully benefiting from income
growth
• Within the region a very wide range of economic and political situations,
production systems, demand growth, and regulatory regimes
• Yet, many common issues facing egg producers across the entire area
• Hen productivity in many low productivity countries are a major
opportunity to meet 2050 potential demand with minimal increase in hen
numbers
• Increased hen productivity would also effectively address many of the
other major issues identified above.