Renewables-Intensive Energy
Scenarios for the UK
Presentation to Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, 20th Sep 2013
Godfrey Boyle, Professor of Renewable Energy, The Open University, UK
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Intro: UK Renewables: Current Status & EU 2020 Targets
DECC Renewable Energy Roadmap to 2020
UK Climate Change Committee Scenarios to 2030
WWF/GLGH High Renewable Electricity Scenarios 2030
Poyry ‘Max’ Electricity Scenario for 2050
DECC High Renewables Pathway to 2050
UK Pugwash Very High Renewables Pathway to 2050
CAT Zero Carbon Britain: 100% Renewables by 2030
Comparison of Scenarios: Deployment Rates, Costs
UK c.f. Germany’s Energiewende
Conclusion: UK Renewables Policy Could be Much More
Ambitious!
falling short by 275 ktoe (or 3,200 GWh) of Directive compliant renewable en
EU & UK 2020 Targets
UK Renewable Energy in 2012
The methodology for the derivation of interim targets was specified in the D
resulted in a target of 4.04 per cent. DECC's normal practise in re
renewables is to calculate rates to 1 decimal place, which recognises the
of both renewables and final energy consumption; methodology notes
website give further details. As such whilst the estimate of 3.94 per cent is
should be aware that the uncertainty attached to this estimate would cove
between this figure and the target.
EU 20:20:20 Target for 2020: Renewables to supply 20% of Final (delivered) energy
amount of electricity generated from renewables sources in 2012 was
Within EU Target, UK Target: RenewablesThe
to
Supplyon15%
final energy
cent increase
2011. of
Generation
from solar by
photovoltaics was almost
2011, and plant biomass generation more than doubled. Wind generation a
2020 (c.234TWh)
– offshore wind up 46 per cent, and onshore wind up 17 per cent, taking
Progress to Date: By 2012 UK Renewables
Supplied:
4%of of
Energywith
(c.60TWh),
19,584
GWh (47 perc.cent
the Final
total), compared
37 per cent for bio
hydro and 3 per cent for solar photovoltaics. The increases in wind gen
c. 12% of Electricity, c. 2% Heat/Cool Energy,
3% Transport
Energy
growth c.
in installed
capacity rather
than from increased operation from ex
significant changes in load factors). Hydro generation fell by 7 per cen
Deployment Rate Must Increase to c.22 from
TWh/yr
to Hit 2020 Target (see Fig 1 below)
Chart 1: Progress against Renewable Energy Directive
DECC Renewable Energy
Roadmap View to 2020
UK Commitment: Renewables to Provide c. 15%
of Delivered Energy by 2020
Deployment
Target:
234 TWh by
2020 (- 60 TWh
from RE in 2012)
= 174 TWh
in c.8 yrs
Deployment
Rate = c. 22
TWh/yr
UK Climate Change
Committee Scenarios to 2030
Renewables to Supply 30-65% of Electricity, 35-50% of Heat &
11-25% of Transport (all delivered energy)
In High (46%)
Scenario
RE Delivers c.800
TWh in 2030
RE Deployment
Rate: 800-60 TWh
= 740 TWh in 17 yrs
= 44 TWh/yr.
Of which:
65% is Elec.
50% is Heat
25% Transport
Main Source: Wind
WWF/GLGH Positive Energy Report 2011:
‘Stretch’ Scenario for 2030
By 2030, 130 GW of Renewable Capacity Supplies 295
TWh (87% of Reduced Electricity Demand)
Renewable Electricity
Deployment Rate:
295-35= c.260 TWh in
c.19 yrs
= c.14 TWh/yr
Report Stresses that
2015-20 Ren. Elec.
Deploy Rate must be
maintained in 2020-30
Poyry 2011: Scenarios for UK
Electricity in 2050
In V.Hi. Scenario: c.490TWh (c.80%) of Elec. from RE by 2050
ANALYSING TECHNICAL CONSTRAINTS ON RENEW ABLE GENERATION T
In Max Scenario: c.700 TWh (c.94%) of Elec. from RE by 2050
Figure 7 – Annual generation by scenario (TWh)
In Max Scenario
Wind (Offshore &
Onshore) is Main
RE Contributor
(c.80%)
Renew. Elec.
Deployment Rate:
700-60
=640 TWh over
37yrs
= c.17 TWh/yr
UK Supply Mixes 1960-2010 & in DECC
Pathways to 2050: ‘Spread’ & ‘Non Nuclear’
In DECC ‘NonNuclear’ 2050
Scenario,
Renewables
Supply c.60% of
8EJ Primary
Energy, i.e.
c.1350TWh
RE Deployment
Rate: c.1350-60
= 1290 TWh in c.
37 yrs
=c.35 TWh/yr
Electricity imports
Total
182.8
70
669.5
8.0
77
UK Pugwash 2013
Very
High
Renewables
As can be seen, some fossil fuel use was retained. This was forced on us by
which would not let us replace all the fossil fuel. It simply export
Scenario 2050,software,
Using
DECC
Pathways
electricity generation.
We did however
limit the use of CCS to just the 1.7
planned, the minimum allowed by the spreadsheet. On the demand
Authors Elliott & Finneyalready
@
selected high levels of energy saving in most sectors, in most cases at DEC
resulting in an overall primary energy saving of around 40% by 2050. W e
Open University
this was ambitious but felt it was realistic given that Germany is aiming fo
primary energy reduction by 2050. In addition, DECC has suggested that 4
By 2050 Renewables c.80%
are possible in key UK sectors by 2030, including industry.
of UK Electricity & c 80% of
Figures 1, 2 and 3 below present our results for primary energy supply and
Delivered Energy
electricity generation, as produced by the DECC Calculator. By 2050 emis
High Renewables
the 80% reduction target (compared with 1990 levels) by 2%, with the tota
Ren. Elec. Deploy. Rate
=
capita per year put at £4378 , based on DECC costing calculator, with the lo
estimate range being £3257-6588.
(550-60)/37 = 13 TWh/yr
2
Zero Carbon Britain - Zero GHGs by
2030, via ‘Powerdown’ & ‘Power-up’
Powerdown: Demand
reduced by 60%
Power-up: Supply inc. to
100% Renewable by 2030
ZCB 2030 Energy Flow Diagram
Total Deliv. Energy: c.750 TWh/yr
Zero Carbon Britain 2030: Hourly
Model of Demand & RE Supply
10 Year Hourly
Model (87600
data points) of
UK Renewable
Electricity
Supply &
Demand
Seven Day
Example >>>
Shows
surpluses &
Shortfalls>>
ZCB: Supply & Demand Matched via
Synthetic Methane & Liquid Fuels from
Renewable Electricity & CO2
Renewable Elec. &
CO2 from Biomass,
via Sabatier
Process, gives
Synthetic Methane
for backup Elec.
Gen. (in CCGTs)
& Industrial Use.
Fischer-Tropsch
(FT) Process gives
Liquid fuels for
Transport &
Industry
Fraunhofer & Audi: Renewable
Electricity + CO2 to Synthetic
Methane
Audi Release June 13:
“Audi has opened the
doors to its new power-togas facility, which will
make …E-gas.
“The plant produces
hydrogen and synthetic
methane … from
renewable energy, water
and carbon dioxide. (…)
“Major German energy
utilities have since taken
up the idea of power-togas cogeneration and are
following Audi with initial
projects of their own.”
UK High-Renewable Scenarios:
Comparison of Deployment Rates
DECC Roadmap Deliv. En. Deploy Rate 2013-2020: 22 TWh/yr
Deployment
Rates
Electricity:
13-17
TWh/yr
Delivered
Energy: 2244TWh/yr
Primary
Energy:
35TWh/yr
Scenario
(Target Date)
Target (TWh)
(Year)
Deployment
Rate
(TWh/year)
Notes
DECC
Roadmap
(2020)
234 (2020)
22
Delivered Energy
UK CCC
(2030)
800 (2030)
44
Delivered Energy
WWF/GLGH
(2030)
295 (2030)
14
Electricity only
Poyry Max
(2050)
700 (2050)
17
Electricity only
DECC Hi
Renewables
(2050)
1500 (2050)
35
Primary energy
Pugwash Very
High
Renewables
(2050)
600 (2050)
13 (Electricity)
80% of Electricity
(& Delivered Energy)
CAT ZCB
(2030)
670 (2030)
35
Delivered Energy
total capital costs for the three Pathways are surprisingly similar: this is perhaps because the selected
technology has been strongly influenced by market forces in each case, and in all three Pathways, the
will within a few years be starting almost from scratch – the existing nuclear cohort, and much of the
conventional energy infrastructure, will have been retired, and whatever new system replaces them w
rather similar investment profiles.
Cost Comparison of Hi-Renewable,
Hi-Nuclear & Intermed. Scenarios to
2050, from Pugwash Report
Given the importance of these figures in influencing decisions on public and private investment polic
perhaps surprising that they have not yet been the subject of much published expert scrutiny or media
comment.
Total Costs/capita/yr,
2010-2050, from DECC
Pathways calculator:
• Hi Renewables:
£4378- £6588
• Hi Nuclear:
£3404-£7178
• Intermediate:
£4485-£6554
Costs approx. equal
in all three
Table 7.6 Average Cost per capita per year in £ for the three Pathways 2010-2050
Cost/capita/year av 2010-2050
Thermal (incl CCS)
Nuclear
Wind
Wave, Tidal, Hydro, Geothermal
Solar
Biomatter to fuel, imports
UK bioenergy
Electricity imports
Electricity Exports
Grid, storage,backup
H2 production
Domestic Heat & Insulation
Commercial heat & cooling
Lighting, appl, cooking
Industrial processes
Transport
Fossil fuel prod & imports
District heating
Storage of captured CO2
Total point estimate
For information:
Total low estimate
Total high estimate
High Nuclear
Point
51.9
120.0
47.4
3.5
34.5
97.1
179.6
0.0
-14.5
52.2
7.6
644.1
110
49.2
131.7
2467.6
611
2.9
16.1
4612.0
High Renewables
Point
18.5
3.9
201.1
52.1
95.4
47.0
175.0
13.3
-77.9
69.9
0.0
864.1
46.9
54.0
131.7
2171.9
506.4
1.9
4.8
4378
Intermediate
Point
73.1
62.7
72.8
3.8
34.5
66.0
179.6
5.7
-4.1
61.2
0.0
644.1
109.8
49.2
131.7
2331.1
634
2.2
27.4
4485
3404
7178
3257
6588
3286
6554
UK vs. Germany’s High Renewable
Future via Energiewende
By 2030:
>50% of Elec.
& c.30% of Deliv.
Energy
By 2050:
Primary Energy 50%
Renewables
>80% of Elec.
& c.60% of Deliv.
Energy
Summary & Conclusions
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UK has probably the best Renewable resources in Europe
Current UK Government plans for Renewable Energy
Deployment to 2020 are very un-ambitious – and no targets after
2020
Many Studies show great potential for further Renewable
deployment to 2030 & 2050
Scenarios suggest Renewables could be providing >80% of UK
Electricity, or nearly all Delivered Energy, by 2030-2050
Delivered Energy Deployment Rates feasible by 2050 -- but
maybe not by 2030 unless Government makes much stronger
commitment!
High-Renewable Scenario’s Total Costs are no more than in
other Scenarios (e.g. High Nuclear)
Germany’s Energiewende shows the way towards a Very HighRenewable Future for a large country like UK
UK Government could & should adopt a much more ambitious
approach to deployment of renewable energy!