Energy Technology Perspectives
Scenarios and Strategies to 2050
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2006
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
Dolf Gielen
Senior Energy Analyst
International Energy Agency
Energy & Materials Efficiency Conference, Seoul, September 21-22, 2006 © OECD/IEA - 2006
This Presentation
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2006
 ETP background
 Results from the Scenario Analysis
 Policy Consequences
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
 Next Steps
Energy Technology Perspectives
Presents
 ETP 2006 provides part of IEA’s “advice on scenarios
and strategies” at the G8 summit in St. Petersburg
 Status and perspectives for key energy
technologies in:




Power Generation
Transport
Buildings and Appliances
Industry
 Global scenarios to illustrate potentials for different
technologies under accelerated policies
 Strategies for helping key technologies make a
difference
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Key Findings
 Current policies will not bring us on a path towards
a sustainable energy future
 A more sustainable energy future is possible with a
portfolio of clean and efficient technologies
 Using technologies that have an additional cost of
less than 25 $/tonne CO2 avoided:


Global CO2 emissions can be returned to today's level by 2050
Expected growth in both oil and electricity demand can be
halved
 Requires urgent action to promote, develop and
deploy a full mix of energy technologies
 Collaboration between developing and developed
nations will be essential
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Results from the Scenario Analysis
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Scenario Analysis
 Scenarios analysed:
Baseline Scenario
 Accelerated Technology Scenarios (ACT)
 TECH Plus scenario
 ACT and TECH Plus scenarios:
 Analyse the impact from R&D, Demonstration and
Deployment measures
 Incentives equivalent to 25 $/tonne CO2 for lowcarbon technologies implemented world-wide from
2030 and on
 Individual scenarios differ in terms of assumptions
for key technology areas

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
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Technology Assumptions
Scenario
Renewables
ACT Map
ACT
Low Renewables
Nuclear
CCS
H2 fuel cells
Advanced
biofuels
2.0 % p.a.
global
improvement
Relatively optimistic across all technology areas
Slower cost
reductions
ACT
Low Nuclear
Lower public
acceptance
ACT
No CCS
No CCS
1.7 % p.a.
global
improvement
ACT
Low Efficiency
TECH Plus
End-use
efficienc
y
Stronger cost
reductions
Stronger cost
reductions &
technology
improvements
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Breakthrough for
FC
Stronger cost
reductions &
improved
feedstock
availability
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Global CO2 Emissions 2003-2050
60 000
Baseline, ACT and TECH plus Scenarios
Mt CO2
+137%
ACT Scenarios 2050
50 000
Other
Buildings
40 000
Transport
+21%
30 000
Industry
+27%
Transformation
+6%
-16%
20 000
Power
Generation
10 000
0
2003
Baseline
2030
Baseline
2050
Map
No CCS
Low
TECH Plus
Efficiency
2050
TECH Plus: More optimistic on progress for certain key technologies
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Emission Reduction by Technology Area
ACT Map Scenario
MAP Scenario – 2050
32 Gt CO2 Reduction
Industry 10%
Energy & feedstock efficiency 6%
Materials & products efficiency 1%
Pocess innovation 1%
Cogeneration & steam 2%
Buildings 18%
Space heating 3%
Air conditioning 3%
Lighting, misc. 3.5%
Water heat. cooking 1%
Coal to gas 5%
End-use
efficiency
45%
Appliances 7.5%
Transport 17%
Nuclear 6%
Fossil fuel gen eff 1%
Power Gen
34%
CCS 12%
Hydro 2%
Biomass 2%
Other renewables 6%
Fuel economy
in transport 17%
Biofuels in transport 6%
CCS in fuel transformation 3%
CCS in industry 5%
Fuel mix in building 5% and industry 2%
Improved energy efficiency most important contributor
to reduced emissions
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Energy Efficiency - A top Priority
 Improved energy efficiency saves about 15 Gt
CO2 by 2050 - equivalent to 60% of current
emissions
 Improved efficiency halves expected growth
in electricity demand and reduces the need
for generation capacity by a third
 In a scenario with less progress in efficiency,
CO2 emissions increase more than 20%
 Lower efficiency progress increases supplyside investments and costs of reducing CO2
emissions
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Global Electricity Generation by Fuel
100%
2%
17%
80%
6%
9%
7%
2%
15%
4%
15%
Shares
16%
15%
14%
18%
21%
25%
26%
2%
2%
14%
15%
16%
12%
14%
13%
16%
ACT Map
ACT Low
Nuclear
ACT Low
Renewables
ACT No CCS
6%
39%
15%
22%
2%
46%
27%
18%
2%
2%
14%
5%
0%
2003
Coal
Coal-CCS
Baseline 2050
Oil
Gas
6%
9%
16%
3%
20%
19%
5%
14%
17%
19%
40%
17%
3%
4%
27%
60%
9%
16%
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass
TECH Plus 2050
Other renewables
ACT Scenarios: Important role for CCS and strong
growth in the shares for renewables and nuclear
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Electricity Generation
CO2 Capture and Storage a Key Option
 CCS is crucial for the role coal can play in a CO2
constrained world – without CCS coal-fired
generation in 2050 drops below today’s level
 By 2050 more than 5 000 TWh electricity globally
can be produced by coal-plants equipped with CCS
 There is an urgent need for more R&D and for fullscale CCS demonstration plants
 Generation from renewables can quadruple by 2050
 Nuclear can gain a much more important role in
countries where it is acceptable
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CCS also in Industry and for Other
Parts of the Energy Supply
Gas
Ammonia production
5%
Biomass
Power plants/CHP
5%
Coal
Power plants
53%
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Gas
DRI production
3%
Gas
Gas processing
3%
Gas
GTL
5%
Gas/oil
Industrial Furnaces
8%
Gas/oil
Refineries
9%
Coal
Blast furnaces
Process 4%
Cement
5%
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
World Liquid Fuel Supply by Scenario
2003-2050
8 000
7 000
6 000
Hydrogen
M toe
5 000
Biofuels
4 000
Synfuels
3 000
Oil
2 000
1 000
0
2003
Baseline
2030 (WEO
2005)
Baseline
2050
AC T Map
2050
AC T Low
Efficiency
2050
TEC H Plus
2050
Primary oil demand is below 2030 baseline level, and is
returned to about today’s level in TECH Plus
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Transport CO2 Emissions by Scenario
14 000
Mt CO2
10 000
8 000
Savings
2050 Baseline Emission Level
Savings
12 000
Hydrogen
(including fuel
cell efficiency)
Biofuels
6 000
Fuel efficiency
4 000
2 000
CO2
emissions
0
2003
Baseline 2030
(WEO 2005)
Baseline 2050 ACT Map 2050
TECH Plus
2050
Map Scenario: Two-thirds of CO2 emissions reduction is
from improved fuel efficiency and one-third from biofuels
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Transport
Key to Reduce Growth in Oil Demand
 Share of biofuels by 2050 is 13% and average
2050 vehicle is almost 50% more efficient than
today

Reduce expected growth in transport oil demand
by almost 50%
 Transport accounts for 62% of the 42 mbpd total
oil savings by 2050, which more than halves the
expected growth in total oil demand
 Hydrogen and Fuel Cells can reduce transport oil
demand and CO2 emissions even further and can
be crucial for long-term sustainability
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CO2 Emissions
Baseline and Map Scenarios
OECD
35 000
Developing Countries
+250%
30 000
Mt CO2
25 000
+70%
20 000
+65%
15 000
-32%
10 000
5 000
0
2003
Baseline
2050
ACT Map
2050
2003
Baseline
2050
ACT Map
2050
Map: OECD Emissions 32% below 2003 level, while
emissions in Developing Countries are 65% higher
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Scenario Analysis
Key Findings
 Most energy still comes from fossil fuels in 2050
 CO2 emissions can be returned towards today’s
level by 2050
 Growth in oil and electricity demand can be
halved
 Power generation can be substantially decarbonised by 2050
 De-carbonising transport will take longer but
must be achieved in the second half of the
century
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Policy Consequences
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Technology is the Key
 A technology portfolio will be needed
 Improving energy efficiency is top priority
 CCS is key for a sustainable energy future
 Other important technologies:
 Renewables, including biofuels
 Nuclear
 Efficient use of natural gas
 In time and with effort, hydrogen and fuel cells
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Costs
 25 $/tonne CO2 incentive is upper limit for the
incremental costs of technologies included
 Significant transitional costs for RD&D and
deployment programs
 Progress in efficiency and CCS key to keep
mitigation costs down
 Investment costs in the energy system may
increase by half
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Investment Needs 2005-2050
This is a Big Challenge
CCS (20%)
1000 500 MW coal fired power plants w CCS. 100
ammonia plants, 300 blast furnaces, 500 cement
kilns w CCS
Renewables (14%)
New plantations the size of South Africa
200,000 3 MW wind turbines
175 X growth solar-PV/CSP
22X growth geothermal
Nuclear (6%)
An additional 250 1 GW nuclear plants
Industrial energy
efficiency (10%)
All motor systems 25% more efficient
Maximum coal injection in blast furnaces
Transport efficiency Fuel efficiency cars improves by 40%
(17%)
13% biofuels worldwide
20-40% hybrids
Efficiency built
environment (18%)
80% fluorescent lighting and CFL
Electric appliances 50% more efficient
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RD&D Trends
Public Funds in IEA Countries
mil USD, 2004 prices and exchange rates
25,000
Other
20,000
Power & Storage
technologies
Nuclear Fusion
15,000
Nuclear Fission
10,000
Renewable
Energy
Fossil Fuels
5,000
Conservation
1974
1979
1984
1989
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
1994
1999
2004
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RD&D Needs
 2050 stabilisation does not require more basic
R&D (but longer term emission reductions will)
 More funding needed for applied R&D
(technology development)
 Unclear if increased funding alone will be
sufficient
 Unclear if reallocation of funding is needed
 More international collaboration could enhance
the efficiency, e.g. extension of the IEA
Implementing Agreements
 Deployment cost matter, e.g.:


720 billion learning investments for renewables 20052050
0.5 billion/year for CCS demonstrations
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Policy Needs
 Urgent action is needed in public and private
sectors:
Overcome barriers for adoption of energy
efficient demand-side technologies
 Enhance R&D
 Accelerate demonstration and deployment
 Provide clear and predictable incentives

 Collaboration between developed and
developing countries essential
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Next Steps
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Current Thinking regarding
ETP2008
 ETP will become a bi-annual IEA
publication, complementing the World
Energy Outlook
 Elaboration of ACT scenario policy
consequences
Develop a transition plan/timeline
 More attention for RD&D
 More attention for technology learning

 Special Interest Chapters
Second generation biofuels
 CO2 Capture and Storage

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Thank You
dolf.gielen@iea.org
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