Energy for a Shared Development
Agenda
Charles Heaps, Ph. D.
Director, SEI U.S. Center
charlie.heaps@sei-us.org
www.sei-international.org
Where are We Headed?
Excerpts from Latest World Bank Report
Turn Down the Heat (November 2012)
•
•
•
•
•
•
Present emission trends put the world plausibly
on a path toward 4°C warming within century.
Even with current mitigation commitments and
pledges fully implemented, there is roughly a
20% likelihood of exceeding 4°C by 2100.
If not met, a warming of 4°C could occur as
early as the 2060s.
Further warming to levels over 6°C, with
several meters of sea-level rise, would likely
occur over the following centuries.
A 4°C world would be one of unprecedented
heat waves, severe drought, and major floods
in many regions, with serious impacts on
human systems, ecosystems, and associated
services.`
Given that uncertainty remains about the full
nature and scale of impacts, there is no
certainty that adaptation to a 4°C world is
possible.
Reasons for Concern
Source: PNAS, Feb 2009
Energy for a Shared Development Agenda:
Global Scenarios and Governance Implications
•
•
•
•
•
Examines how energy needs for
development can be met in a way that is
compatible with meaningful development.
Includes new global energy scenarios, case
studies of transformation, and a review of
policy governance frameworks.
Developed for the Rio +20 Conference on
Sustainable Development, organized by the
U.N. Commission on Sustainable
Development.
An SEI report developed in partnership with
ACPC (Africa), FBDS and COPPE (Brazil),
IIASA (Austria) PBL (Netherlands), TERI
(India) and WRI (USA).
Full report available here:
www.sei-international.org/rio20
Objectives
• Explores how global energy systems might be
reconfigured to address sustainability whilst
also providing meaningful development.
• Goes beyond basic energy access to explore
sustainable energy for all at levels that can
underpin economic activity consistent with at
least middle income levels in all countries.
Study Methodology
• Builds upon the Global Energy
Assessment (IIASA, PBL, SEI
etc.).
• Detailed sectoral modeling of 20
global regions using SEI’s LEAP
software (shown right).
• A key subsidiary goal was to
create a transparent, open
source, global data set, freely
available to all.
• Available here:
www.energycommunity.org
• Web-based interactive scenario
explorer also coming soon.
Three Scenarios
• Baseline (BAS)
Historical trends and likely regional futures, assuming no major new
efforts to tackle climate change or poverty.
• Basic Energy Access (BEA)
Similar economic trends to BAS but with major efforts to mitigate
climate change, and basic energy access for all by 2050.
• Shared Development Agenda (SDA)
Builds upon BEA. Faster growth in the poorest regions so that
average per capita GDP reaches at least $10,000 PPP by 2050.
Balanced by slightly slower growth in richest regions for same
overall global GDP and similar emissions constraints.
More Equitable Income Distribution
(2005 Dollars PPP per Capita)
Growth in Average Incomes in
West Africa
More Equitable Income Distribution
(‘000 2005 Dollars PPP per Capita)
2010
2050 Baseline
2050 Shared Development
Improved Income Distribution in SDA
Gini coefficients improve in each region as levels of democratic participation improve
and countries become better governed.
GINI analysis: Eric Kemp-Benedict
Poverty Levels in Baseline vs. SDA
Cumulative CO2 Emissions
Cumulative CO2 Emissions: 2000-2050
Baseline (97% chance exceeding 2°C)
50% Chance of 2°C
SDA (60% Chance of 2°C)
67% Chance of 2°C
Already Emitted (2000-2012): ~406 GT CO2
Gt CO2
2,436
1,440
1,300
1,169
CO2 Emissions Reductions: BEA vs. BAS
SDA Primary Energy Requirements
SDA: Primary Energy Requirements vs.
Best Guesses of Sustainable Resource Base
Sources: SEI, GEA
SDA: Evolution of
Energy Demand in 3 Regions
EJ
Global Energy Sector CO2 Emissions:
Selected Scenarios
80
GEA Baseline
SEI Baseline
70
IEA ETP 2010 Baseline
60
IEA WEO 2011 Current Policies
GT CO2/year
50
Greenpeace Baseline
40
GEA Efficiency
30
IEA WEO 2011 450
IEA ETP 2010 BlueMap
20
Greenpeace Energy [Re]volution
10
SEI Shared Develpoment
Agenda
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Required Energy Intensity Declines:
Selected Scenarios
SEI Baseline
1.2
GEA Baseline
Final Energy Intensity (2010=1)
IEA ETP 2010 Baseline
1.0
Greenpeace Baseline
IEA WEO 2011 Current
Policies
IEA WEO 2011 450
0.8
IEA ETP 2010 Blue Map
0.6
GEA Efficiency
Greenpeace Energy
[Re]volution
SEI Shared Development
Agenda
SEI Basic Energy Access
0.4
0.2
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Energy Intensity (GJ/$ of GDP)
Key Strategies & Measures
Energy Efficiency:
Very high levels of insulation of buildings, lighting,
heating, cooling, industrial processes, road
vehicles, shipping and airplanes.
Electrification and Renewables
Helps achieve efficiency goals and eliminate CO2 in
end-use sectors. Requires that electricity
production has close to zero emissions of CO2
(renewables and some nuclear and CCS).
Switching to Low Carbon Fuels
Switching from coal and oil to sustainably grown
biomass and limited use of natural gas w/CCS.
May also require expansion of nuclear.
Sufficiency
Loosen tight link between economic growth and
consumption of goods and services.
Conclusions
• SDA entails significant risks (40% chance of exceeding 2°C, while
even 2°C likely to be insufficient for climate protection).
• Mitigation goals extremely challenging, but still be technically
feasible if political will emerges almost immediately.
– Requires significant climate action in all regions.
– Dramatic improvements in energy intensities (-2.8%/year) required:
requires technical and sufficiency measures.
– Up to 8900 GW of wind may be required by 2050. Requires building
248 GW per year (2015-2050 ) - 25 times recent global build rate!
• Minimal additional impacts on energy use and CO2 emissions vs.
BEA scenarios. CO2 increases by 4.3% in 2050 vs. BEA.
• Need to weigh increased emissions against huge social benefits and
likelihood that greater equity is a precondition for concerted global
climate action.