Bull & Bear Facts*
Average gain in bull market:
+155%
Average length of bull market: 50 months
Average loss in bear market:
-27%
Average length of bear market: 14 months
Bull & Bear Markets
* Based on data since 1956. See page 2 for more details.
S&P 500 Index to February 2015
526%
118 months
520
160%
280%
61 months
% Change (log scale)
280
225%
72 months
110%
108%
104%
48 months
90%
76%
43 months
60%
80
86%
52%
30 months
61 months
87%
72%
27 months 33 months
30 months
26 months
10%0
-15%
-40%
-40
-22%
17 months
-16%
-15%
8 months
14 months
6 months
-29%
-15%
-17%
5 months
20 months
-30%
19 months
3 months
-43%
-45%
21 months
-51%
25 months
-90%
16 months
56
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Source: Mackenzie Investments (Bloomberg: month-end data points as at February 28, 2015; total return, local currency)
95
00
05
10
15
Bull & Bear Markets
S&P 500
The Risks and Rewards of Investing
•
This chart represents the bull and bear markets in the S&P 500 Index since 1956. All bars above the line are bull
markets; all bars below are bear markets.
•
For the purposes of this illustration, a bull (bear) market is defined as a positive (negative) move greater than 15% that
lasts at least 3 months.
•
The first bar represents a bear market which, at its lowest point, dropped to -15% and lasted 17 months.
This was followed by a bull market rising 104% and lasting 48 months.
•
Since 1956 there have been 11 bull markets and 11 bear markets. As can be seen from the chart, bull markets typically
last longer and provide a more significant percentage change.
•
Bear markets during this period have averaged -27% and lasted only 14 months. Bull markets during this period have
averaged 155% and lasted 50 months. This is the reward for accepting the risk of bear markets.
According to the chart, markets spend more time in positive territory (bull) than negative (bear).
•
Bull markets are, on average, longer and more intense, providing a more significant percentage change.
•
On average bear markets are more brief, and yet engender fear. We believe that during these periods there are
significant investment ‘bargains’ to be found.
•
Investor discipline during bear markets is critical.
The information contained in this document has been prepared by Mackenzie Financial Corporation (“Mackenzie Investments”) using information from sources it believes
to be reliable. However Mackenzie Investments makes no representations or guarantees as to the accuracy of any such information.
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Investor Behaviour