Proceedings of 7th Asia-Pacific Business Research Conference 25 - 26 August 2014, Bayview Hotel, Singapore ISBN: 978-1-922069-58-0 Analyzing Determinants of Bank Performance in Indonesia (Case Study: 19 Big Banks Period 2008-2013) Nita Nofita R1 and Achmad Herlanto Anggono2 Bank takes big role toward economic growth in a country. The operation of a bank can determine the decision of investment. In order to evaluate bank performance, this research will use efficiency perspective. Thus, this issue becomes important since bank inefficiency can lead to bankruptcy. This study aims to analyze determinants affecting bank performance through efficiency perspective.Case study for this research are 19 big banks in Indonesia within period of 2008-2013. The result from this study will provide the affecting determinants and representation of bank performance in Indonesia. Keywords: Performance, Bank Efficiency, Banking, Intermediation . Field of Research: Finance, Banking 1. Introduction As the intermediaries institution, bank takes big role in the circulation of money in a country. The operation of a bank relates to country’s economic. This phenomenon is expected can lead to a better investment decision. With that consideration, the issue of bank efficiency becomes very important since the inefficiency can lead to bankruptcy (Rozzani & Rahman, 2013). According to Indonesian Banking Statistics (2013), there was an indication of performance depression in banking industry, in first quarter 2013. It caused by uncertainty of global crisis completion that affected the decrement of commodity demand. On the other hand, this occurrence has weakened the credit growth. It was proven by declining of Return On Asset to 3.08% in December 2013. Moreover, Net Interest Margin was also decreasing from 5.49% in December 2012 to 4.89% in December 2013 (Otoritas Jasa Keuangan, 2013). The decrement of Return On Asset and Net Interest Margin was not a good sign for financial performance. In accordance with that, this phenomenon could be indicating a decrement of bank efficiency if Like Return On Asset, Return On Equity is one of financial ratio that represent bank performance. Both of them attempt to figure out the ability of a bank in generating profit. 1 Nita Nofita R, School of Business and Management, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia Email : nita.nofita@sbm-itb.ac.id 2 Ir. Achmad Herlanto Anggono, MBA. , School of Business and Management, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia. Email : achmad.herlanto@sbm-itb.ac.id 1 Proceedings of 7th Asia-Pacific Business Research Conference 25 - 26 August 2014, Bayview Hotel, Singapore ISBN: 978-1-922069-58-0 Figure 1. Trends in ROA and ROE during 2008-2013 Source : Quarterly financial report, Bank Indonesia (calculated) The statistical data above shows the average of ROA and ROE of big banks in Indonesia during 2008-2013. The ROE tends to be inconsistent, in December 2009 ROE is 16.76% and goes up gradually to 19.89% in March 2010. However, it decreases to 17.89% in June 2011 and goes up again to 19.10% in December 2012. This trend motivates the author to analyze bank performance in Indonesia through efficiency perspective. The objective of this research is to figure out how are big banks performance in Indonesia and examine the determinants that significantly influence bank performance in Indonesia through efficiency perspective. This paper will have four sections while the first one is the introduction then section 2 is the literature review and empirical theory that relate to the topic of the research as the framework of the analysis. Section 3 will provide brief explanation about the steps to perform this research and data formulation. Last section provides the result of data calculation that will be discussed in comprehensive analysis and interpretation. 2. Literature Review 2.1 Bank According to Apostolik et.al (2009), bank has three main activities that consist of deposit collection, payment service, and loan underwriting. Deposit collection could be interpreted as the activity of bank to collect fund from society as demand deposit, saving deposit, and time deposit. Payment service focus on transfer process while loan underwriting focus on circulate the fund that has been gathered to society as credit or loan. Saunders (2008) classified bank into four function as the intermediary, which are as broker, as asset transformer, as delegated monitor, and as information producer. 2 Proceedings of 7th Asia-Pacific Business Research Conference 25 - 26 August 2014, Bayview Hotel, Singapore ISBN: 978-1-922069-58-0 BANK Collect Fund Circulate Fund Other Services id il Fee Spread Based Fee Based Figure.2 Financial Management of Bank Source: Adopted from Dasar-dasar Perbankan Edisi Revisi (Kasmir, 2012) Chart above can give better illustration of bank intermediary function. Kasmir (2012) illustrate that profit of a bank can be obtained from the interest differences, called as spread based. This profit system only valid for conventional banks, otherwise sharia bank has different illustration of intermediary function. In addition, bank also receive another profit from service activities, called as fee based. Based on Bank Indonesia Regulation number 14/26/PBI/2012, in conducting the business activity, bank should operate in accordance with bank’s capacity. Hence, bank is expected to have better resilience and be more efficient. According to the core capital, bank activities are classified into 4 namely, Business Activity Commercial Bank or BUKU (Bank Indonesia, 2012). BUKU 1 : Basic banking services with core capital at min. IDR 100billion-below 1 trillion BUKU 2 : Wider business activity and limited equity with core capital at min. IDR 1trillion-below 5 trillion BUKU 3 : Having full of business activity and equity with core capital at min. IDR 5 trillion-below 30 trillion BUKU 4 : Having full of business activity and wider equity with core capital at min. IDR 30trillion This research will focus on big commercial banks in Indonesia that classified in BUKU 3 and 4. 2.1.1 Bank Performance The activity of a bank is unpredictable, there would be so many factors that affect bank activity. From time to time, bank is not always show the same performance. Hence, in periodically bank do the analysis toward bank performance. It is intended to evaluate bank condition at that time and ease the management to make business strategy decision in the future. 3 Proceedings of 7th Asia-Pacific Business Research Conference 25 - 26 August 2014, Bayview Hotel, Singapore ISBN: 978-1-922069-58-0 2.1.1.1 Financial Ratio As mentioned before, bank periodically make financial report to evaluate bank performance, since there are too many informations, financial ratio becomes an indicator that help management in evaluating for the whole performance. Beside, it is very useful for external party who attempt to figure out bank performance, such as investor and government. The following financial ratios are the choosen ratio that will be used in this research: ROA ROA stands for Return On Asset. It is the ratio that represent the ability of a bank to generate profit by utilizing total asset. ROA is net income divided by assets. ROE ROE stands for Return On Equity. It indicates the ability of a bank to return the income as shareholder equity. ROE is net income divided by commonstock equity. CAR CAR stands for Capital Adequacy Ratio. (Bank Indonesia, 2010) CAR is the ratio of capital to risk weighted asset as set forth in the regulation on capital adequacy ratio for commercial banks. DER DER stands for Debt Equity Ratio. It is the proportion of a bank in financing the assets whether using liabilities, shareholders equity, or both. This ratio is long-term debt divided by equity. LDR LDR stands for Loan to Deposit Ratio. (Bank Indonesia, 2010) LDR is the ratio of loan extended to third parties in Rupiah and foreign currencies, excluding loan to other banks, to third party funds covering demand deposits, savings, and time deposits in Rupiah and foreign currencies, excluding interbank funds. NPL NPL stands for Non-Performing Loan. This ratio represent amount of credit that can not be paid by the borrower, called as default credit. There are five classification for credit which are liquid, in special attention, substandard, doubtful, and loss. NPL is the calculation of substandard, doubtful, and loss credit divided by total credit. NIM NIM stands for Net Interest Margin, considered as a fee for bank that obtained by circulating fund to society. NIM is Net Interest Income divided by Average Earning Asset. BOPO BOPO defines whether a bank has already efficiently optimize all production factors or not. BOPO is operating expense divided by operating income. MSTAR MSTAR is the ratio of market securities to total asset ratio. Securities include the amount of measured at fair value through profit and loss, available for sale, hold to maturity, and securities 4 Proceedings of 7th Asia-Pacific Business Research Conference 25 - 26 August 2014, Bayview Hotel, Singapore ISBN: 978-1-922069-58-0 loan and receivable. The securities include amount in rupiah and foreign currencies. LTAR LTAR is the ratio of total loan to total asset. The credit include loan in rupiah and foreign currencies. ITAR ITAR is impairment on financial asset to total asset ratio. The impairment include allowance for interbank placement at other banks, for securities held, securities purchased under age agreement to ressel, derivative asset, credit extended, acceptance asset, equity participation. 2.1.1.2 Bank Efficiency According to Mlima & Hjalmarsson (2002), there are two approaches to measure efficiency. First, production approach that use physical perspective such as labor and capital to produce financial services. Second, intermediation approach that use financial fund as the input factors. Intermediation approach is classified into two sub-group, which are profit by evaluating all types of cost and income generated in production process, and risk management by evaluating risk in various bank’s asset. Regarding to previous study, this research will use intermediation approach. Therefore, this research will use five inputs and four outputs to examine bank performance through efficiency perspective. Those variables will be examined through ROA and ROE as dependent variables that indicate the ability of bank in generating profi. Input factors will include CAR, DER, LDR,LTAR, and ITAR. Otherwise, output factors will include NPL, NIM, BOPO, and MSTAR. 3. Methodology 3.1 Data Collection This research use secondary quantitative data that obtained from Bank Indonesia. Those data include quarterly financial report, income statement, and balance sheet. Sampe for this research involve 19 commercial banks in Indonesia that classified in BUKU 3 and 4 in period of 2008-2013. 3.2 Data Analysis In investigating bank performance, the author will use regression analysis to examine all variables. Due to using regression analysis, first, the author should do classical linear assumption test in order to make sure this research has good assumption. Classical linear assumption test for this research involve normality test, heteroscedasticity test, autocorrelation test, and multicollinearity test. Those test will be examined through Eviews 8 Program. Second, after analyze the assumption of the research then all variables will be examined. The following figure is the proposed model to analyze bank performance through efficiency perspective: 5 Proceedings of 7th Asia-Pacific Business Research Conference 25 - 26 August 2014, Bayview Hotel, Singapore ISBN: 978-1-922069-58-0 Figure 3. Proposed Model For Determinants Analysis There are two dependent variables that will be used in this research. So that, the regression will be examined for two times. First, using ROA as dependent variable and second is using ROE as dependent variables. Through the following equations, the author attempt to examine the influence of those variables toward ROA and ROE, as the representation of bank performance. (1) Hypothesis through ROA : ROA (Y1) is dependent variable CAR (X1) is independent variable H0 : β = 0, X1 has no significant positive effect toward Y1 H1 : β ≠ 0, X1 has significant positive effect toward Y1 DER (X2) is independent variable H0 : β = 0, X2 has no significant negative effect toward Y1 H1 : β ≠ 0, X2 has significant negative effect toward Y1 LDR (X3) is independent variable H0 : β = 0, X3 has no significant negative effect toward Y1 H1 : β ≠ 0, X3 has significant negative effect toward Y1 NPL (X4) is independent variable H0 : β = 0, X4 has no significant positive effect toward Y1 H1 : β ≠ 0, X4 has significant positive effect toward Y1 6 Proceedings of 7th Asia-Pacific Business Research Conference 25 - 26 August 2014, Bayview Hotel, Singapore ISBN: 978-1-922069-58-0 NIM (X5) is independent variable H0 : β = 0, X5 has no significant positive effect toward Y1 H1 : β ≠ 0, X5 has significant positive effect toward Y1 BOPO (X6) is independent variable H0 : β = 0, X6 has no significant negative effect toward Y1 H1 : β ≠ 0, X6 has significant negative effect toward Y1 MSTAR (X7) is independent variable H0 : β = 0, X7 has no significant positive effect toward Y1 H1 : β ≠ 0, X7 has significant positive effect toward Y1 LTAR (X8) is independent variable H0 : β = 0, X8 has no significant positive effect toward Y1 H1 : β ≠ 0, X8 has significant positive effect toward Y1 ITAR (X9) is independent variable H0 : β = 0, X9 has no significant negative effect toward Y1 H1 : β ≠ 0, X9 has significant negative effect toward Y1 (2) Hypothesis through ROE : ROE (Y2) is dependent variable CAR (X1) is independent variable H0 : β = 0, X1 has no significant negative effect toward Y2 H1 : β ≠ 0, X1 has significant negative effect toward Y2 DER (X2) is independent variable H0 : β = 0, X2 has no significant positive effect toward Y2 H1 : β ≠ 0, X2 has significant positive effect toward Y2 LDR (X3) is independent variable H0 : β = 0, X3 has no significant negative effect toward Y2 H1 : β ≠ 0, X3 has significant negative effect toward Y2 NPL (X4) is independent variable H0 : β = 0, X4 has no significant negative effect toward Y2 H1 : β ≠ 0, X4 has significant negative effect toward Y2 NIM (X5) is independent variable H0 : β = 0, X5 has no significant positive effect toward Y2 H1 : β ≠ 0, X5 has significant positive effect toward Y2 BOPO (X6) is independent variable 7 Proceedings of 7th Asia-Pacific Business Research Conference 25 - 26 August 2014, Bayview Hotel, Singapore ISBN: 978-1-922069-58-0 H0 : β = 0, X6 has no significant negative effect toward Y2 H1 : β ≠ 0, X6 has significant negative effect toward Y2 MSTAR (X7) is independent variable H0 : β = 0, X7 has no significant positive effect toward Y2 H1 : β ≠ 0, X7 has significant positive effect toward Y2 LTAR (X8) is independent variable H0 : β = 0, X8 has no significant positive effect toward Y2 H1 : β ≠ 0, X8 has significant positive effect toward Y2 ITAR (X9) is independent variable H0 : β = 0, X9 has no significant positive effect toward Y2 H1 : β ≠ 0, X9 has significant positive effect toward Y2 4. The Findings 4.1 Bank Performance Through ROA In this research, the procedure to examine bank performance through ROA consist of two steps. First procedure define whether the assumption of the research can be accepted or not. If the assumption is rejected, the assumption should be changed before continuing to the next procedure. The result of assumption analysis is as follow: Normality Test 90 Series: Residuals Sample 1 456 Observations 456 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Mean Median Maximum Minimum Std. Dev. Skewness Kurtosis -1.10e-15 -0.032188 2.870754 -2.413984 0.663202 0.557385 5.467973 Jarque-Bera Probability 139.3384 0.000000 0 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 Figure 4.1 Normality Test through ROA The histogram graph above form a bell-shaped that indicate the data is normally distributed. Normality test is one of prerequisite before doing regression analysis. Normality also can be known by comparing Jarque-bera value with Chi-square. Heteroscedasticity Test This research use white-test to analyze the indication of heteroscedasticity. The data will meet the requirement if only has constant var (ui), called homoscedasticity. By comparing Obs*R-squared value with significant level at 8 Proceedings of 7th Asia-Pacific Business Research Conference 25 - 26 August 2014, Bayview Hotel, Singapore ISBN: 978-1-922069-58-0 0.05, there is no heteroscedasticity in this research. The value of Obs*Rsquared for this research through ROA as dependent variable is 82.17777. Autocorrelation Test This research use Breusch-Godfrey Test to in order to detect the autocorrelation among variables. By comparing Obs*R-squared value with significant level at 0.05, there is no indication of autocorrelation among variables. The value of Obs*R-squared for this research through ROA as dependent variable is 202.7182. Multicollinearity Test By using Pair-wise Test, this research indicates no multicollinearity.If the result of Pair-wise test exceeds 0.8 then it indicates multicollinearity and the variable should be omitted to have good result in regression analysis. After following those procedures, the data is qualify to be continued in regression analysis as the second procedure. The result of coefficient determination indicates 82.189% of ROA has been defined by those independent variables. By using t-Test, known that NIM and MSTAR has positively significant influence toward ROA while BOPO and DER has negatively significant significant influence. Otherwise, CAR, NPL, and LTAR has positive but no significant influence, also LDR and ITAR has negative but no significant influence toward ROA. As the result of F-test in regression analysis, all independent variables have jointly significant influence toward ROA. 4.2 Bank Performance Through ROE The author will follow the same procedures to analyze bank performance through ROE. Normality Test 90 Series: Residuals Sample 1 456 Observations 456 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Mean Median Maximum Minimum Std. Dev. Skewness Kurtosis -4.09e-15 0.573343 17.56161 -24.86145 5.460987 -0.527446 4.328956 Jarque-Bera Probability 54.69954 0.000000 0 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Figure 4.2 Normality Test through ROE Graph above indicates that the data is normally distributed. Chi-square value at 496.236 is also prove the occurence of normal distribution. 9 Proceedings of 7th Asia-Pacific Business Research Conference 25 - 26 August 2014, Bayview Hotel, Singapore ISBN: 978-1-922069-58-0 Heteroscedasticity Test Obs*R-squared for this test is 44.06208 with significant level at 0.05. This result indicates homoscedasticity for the research. Autocorrelation-Test The value of Obs*R-squared for this research through ROA as dependent variable is 243.9980 Multicollinearity-Test For the research through ROE has no indication of multicollinearity due to the results of pair-wise test are smaller than 0.8. To sump up the regression analysis, ROE has been defined about 80.4904% by independent variables. Known that, NIM and MSTAR has positively significant influence toward ROE while CAR, LDR, and BOPO has negatively significant significant influence. Otherwise, DER, LTAR, and ITAR have positive but no significant influence, and NPL has negative but no significant influence toward ROE. As the result of F-test in regression analysis, all independent variables have jointly significant influence toward ROE. 5. Summary and Conclusions With This research found that NIM and MSTAR are positive significant toward ROA, but BOPO and DER are negative significant. On the other hand, CAR, NPL, and LTAR are positive but no significant toward ROA. Also, LDR and ITAR are negative but no significant toward ROA. ROA is constant at 3.341707 without any influence from independent variables. Among of 9 independent variables, NIM is the most significant with 0.229436 increasing ROA. This research also found that NIM and MSTAR are positive significant toward ROE, but CAR, LDR, and BOPO are negative significant. On the other hand, DER, LTAR, and ITAR are positive but no significant toward ROE. Moreover, NPL is negative but no significant toward ROE. ROE is constant at 19.66291 without any influence from independent variables. Surprisingly, NIM is also the most significant variable with 1.695646 increasing ROE. In short, bank should maintain interest margin carefully. According to this research, Net Interest Margin Ratio become the most significant variable that influence bank performance. 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