A Perspective on NASA Ames
Air Traffic Management Research
Jeffery A. Schroeder
Federal Aviation Administration*
* Formerly NASA Ames
2
Take-away
• Accurate trajectory prediction sustained key past
contributions
• Present research has wide coverage, with separation
assurance and traffic flow management being the top
two thrusts
• We need to enable more first-look operational
evaluations to meet the NextGen objectives
3
Plan
• Past key contributions:
– Traffic Management Advisor
– Continuous descent arrivals in traffic
– Direct-To
• Present research:
– Separation assurance
– Broad sketches of the other research
• Suggested future modifications:
– Need more first-look operational evaluations
– Need to resolve the vertical trajectory prediction conundrum
4
Past Key Contributions
Traffic Management Advisor
SEA
Seattle
Minneapolis
Boston
PDX
MSP
Salt Lake
BOS
DTW
Chicago
Oakland
Denver
SLC
MDW
PHL
SFO
Indy
DEN
STL
Los Angeles
LAX
IAD
CLT
MEM
PHX
Albuquerque
Memphis
Atlanta
ATL
Jacksonville
MCO
Houston
Adjacentcentermetering
sites
JFK
Washington
DFW
Fort Worth**
ZNY LGA
CVG
Kansas City
LAS
EWR
Cleveland
ORD
TMA
installed,
metering
achieved
IAH
FLL
NASA
version
Miami
MIA
Throughput increased by 3-5%
5
Past Key Contributions
Continuous Descent Arrivals in Traffic
6
Past Key Contributions
Direct-To
900 flying minutes saved a day at Ft. Worth Center*
7
Present Research
Separation Assurance
Emerging Cockpit Technologies + Traffic Alert & Collision Avoidance System (TCAS)
TCAS
Voice Link
Data Link
Safety Assurance
Trajectory Automation
(2-20 min time horizon)
Controller
Interface
(0-3 min time horizon)
8
Present Research
Separation Assurance
Emerging Cockpit Technologies + Traffic Alert & Collision Avoidance System (TCAS)
TCAS
Voice Link
Data Link
Safety Assurance
Trajectory Automation
(2-20 min time horizon)
Controller
Interface
(0-3 min time horizon)
9
Present Research
Separation Assurance
Cleveland Center
New York Center
Fort Worth Center
10
Present Research
Aircraft pairs
Unique aircraft pairs
Separation Assurance
Today’s operations
Time (min)
11
Aircraft pairs
Unique aircraft pairs
Unique aircraft pairs
Aircraft pairs
Present Research
Separation Assurance
Automation detects, human resolves
Time (min)
Today’s operations
Time (min)
One controller doing work of 5 to 10 people. No loss of separation.
12
Present Research
Separation Assurance
Emerging Cockpit Technologies + Traffic Alert & Collision Avoidance System (TCAS)
TCAS
Voice Link
Data Link
Safety Assurance
Trajectory Automation
(2-20 min time horizon)
Controller
Interface
(0-3 min time horizon)
13
Present Research
Separation Assurance
69 Operational Errors
Alerts, %
NASA’s
tactical safety
assurance
Today’s conflict
alerting
14
Broad Sketches of the Other Research
• Traffic flow management
–
–
–
–
–
Improving sector demand predictions
Translating weather for effective re-routing
Developed structure for deciding on proper controls
Investigating aircraft-by-aircraft and aggregate optimization
Developed framework for collaboration
• Terminal area
– Capacity increases with improved time-based scheduling
– Alternatives for conflict detection and resolution in terminal
area
– Simulations of very closely spaced parallel approaches
15
Broad Sketches of the Other Research
• Configuring airspace dynamically
– Multiple algorithms used to draw geometries with a recent
bakeoff showing Voronoi-genetic showing most promise
– Examined combining under-utilized sectors in Cleveland
showing a potential reduction of 40% in sector-hours
• Airport surface
– Optimizing surface flow showing 50% reductions in total taxi
time
– Real-time simulation investigated controller acceptability of
precision-taxi operations
16
Broad Sketches of the Other Research
• Trajectory prediction uncertainty
– Developed framework for requirements, comparisons, and
communication of trajectory engines
• System-level analysis
– Completed broad studies and have been integrating sets of
two technologies (i.e., surface/terminal, TFM/separation)
17
How Long for Deployment in the Airspace?*
18
How Long for Deployment in the Airspace?*
20
ConOps
To
Commisioning
(years)
10
ASDE-X
STARS
CPDLC
WAAS
LAAS
(GBAS)
19
*2004 GAO report
How Long for Deployment in the Airspace?*
20
ConOps
To
Commisioning
(years)
10
TMA
ASDE-X
STARS
CPDLC
WAAS
LAAS
(GBAS)
20
*2004 GAO report
Vertical Trajectory Prediction Errors
Mean = 240 ft
σ
= 2100 ft
n
= 1636
Flights
Altitude prediction error, ft
21
Vertical Trajectory Prediction Errors
Mean = 240 ft
σ
= 2100 ft
n
= 1636
Flights
Altitude prediction error, ft
22
Trajectory Prediction Errors
Current uncertainty in 5 mins
46,000 ft
8400 ft
43,000 ft
23
Trajectory Prediction Errors
Current uncertainty in 5 mins
Likely required uncertainty in 5 mins
30,000 ft
1000 ft
8400 ft
46,000 ft
30,000 ft
43,000 ft
24
Summary
• Accurate trajectory prediction sustained key past
contributions
• Present research has wide coverage, with separation
assurance and traffic flow management being the top
two thrusts
• We need to enable more first-look operational
evaluations to meet the NextGen objectives
25