Biophysical variability and pastoral resource rights revisited Leif V. Brottem, Ph.D Department of Political Science Global Development Studies Program Grinnell College World Bank Conference on Land and Poverty March 24, 2014 Livestock mobility and resource access will be essential to climate resilient development in rural West Africa Historic grazing area for Sahelian herds The Fuladougou agro-pastoral zone in western Mali Seasonal well dug in a dry stream bed ± 0 12.5 25 50 Kilometers Brottem, March 24, 2014 Pastoral resources at risk Agricultural expansion in historically ‘vacant’ areas used for grazing Land cleared for agriculture between 2000 and 2010. 1. The ‘pastoral paradox’: herds in drylands need flexibility and mobility but also protection from agricultural encroachment (Fernandez-Gimenez 2002). • Not just in West Africa but all over the continent 2. Policymakers tended to emphasize the variability of resource patches in such environments but this has not necessarily done herders much good. Moving beyond the paradox: measuring variability in Mali 1. This project aimed empirically measure resource variability at key times during the pastoral calendar in order to test whether there is some predictability from year to year. 2. Predictability would suggest that some territorial measures could be implemented to protect areas containing pastoral resources. Study area: Mali’s agro-pastoral zone Brottem, March 24, 2014 Critical periods in the West African agro-pastoral calendar: vegetation green up and brown down (senescence) 1. A previous stage in the project had calculated temporal change in seasonal vegetation patterns based on MODIS image-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values. 2. For this stage, we needed to add spatial changes in vegetation during the most critical periods of the pastoral calendar: green up and brown down (senescence). From: Butt, B., M. D. Turner, A. Singh, and L. Brottem. 2011. "Use of MODIS NDVI to evaluate changing latitudinal gradients of rangeland phenology in Sudano-Sahelian West Africa." Remote Sensing of Environment no. 115 (12): 3367-3376 To create a measurement of spatio-temporal change in vegetation, we used a landscape metric for land cover patch arrangement: 1. Mean proximity index (MPI, McGarigal and Marks 1995) measures the level of fragmentation of discrete land covers (e.g. ‘greened up’ areas) 2. We used MPI to measure green up and brown down changes in 4 important agro-pastoral zones of Mali thth th June 919 14 2005 2005 24 Pastoral zone green up over 5-day intervals By calculating changes in MPI for pixels that had ‘greened up’ or ‘browned down’ at the beginning and end of a given rainy season, respectively, we established a viable measure of spatio-temporal change in vegetation. Example: Mopti green up period: increase in MPI reflects less fragmentation of ‘green’ patches 7000 Mean Proximity Index 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 Calendar Julian Date (June 4th to July 9th) 190 Brottem, March 24, 2014 Inter-annual variability of green up: June 22, 2003 and 2005 2003 2005 Mopti agro-pastoral zone Brottem, March 24, 2014 Key question: Despite some inter-annual variability, do some areas display longer-term predictability of green up and brown down patterns? • Calculating longer-term (2000-2010) green up and brown down periods for each of the four zones, we found that certain places green up earlier and senesce later than average. • We defined these places as ‘key pastoral resources areas’. Cattle drinking in an seasonal water source at the end of the rainy season. Brottem, March 24, 2014 Results: Each of the four agro-pastoral zones had places of early green up and late brown down. Two of the sheds— Mopti and Gourma— are shown on the right. Early green up (top) and brown down (bottom) areas are darkened. This is a serious matter! 1. Despite efforts to protect livestock mobility through measures such as livestock corridors, pastoral resource areas are often left out due to highly contentious land tenure issues. 2. Mali’s pastoral code calls on local governments to identify and protect such areas but the country’s land tenure law makes this difficult by codifying the customary rights of farmers. 3. Empirical evidence of pastoral resources will lend weight to efforts to provide them with stronger territorial protection. Malian citizens deliberating over livestock corridors in their area Thank you! This project was made possible by the generous support of the USAID Mali Livestock and Pastoral Initiative (Grant #688-A-00-10-00131-00). Two publications are thus far available from this research: 1. Brottem, Leif, Matthew D Turner, Bilal Butt, and Aditya Singh. 2014. "Biophysical Variability and Pastoral Rights to Resources: West African Transhumance Revisited." Human Ecology: 1-15. 2. Butt, B., M. D. Turner, A. Singh, and L. Brottem. 2011. "Use of MODIS NDVI to evaluate changing latitudinal gradients of rangeland phenology in Sudano-Sahelian West Africa." Remote Sensing of Environment no. 115 (12): 3367-3376. Other cited works: • Fernandez-Gimenez, M. E. 2002. "Spatial and Social Boundaries and the Paradox of Pastoral Land Tenure: a Case Study from Postsocialist Mongolia." Human Ecology no. 30 (1):49-78. • McGarigal, K., and B. J. Marks. 1995. FRAGSTATS: Spatial pattern analysis program for quantifying landscape structure. In USDA Forest Service General Technical Report.