Class Business Upcoming Homework Investment Banking Main intermediary in security issuance Terms – Primary vs Secondary market – Underwritten vs. “Best Efforts” offering – Negotiated vs. Competitive Bid – Red herring vs. Tombstone Security Offerings Public offerings: registered with the SEC and sale is made to the investing public – Shelf registration (Rule 415, since 1982) Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) Two IPO pricing puzzles – IPO stocks experience on average large returns on the first day of trading. – IPO stocks under-perform comparable publicly traded companies over the next five years. 700 80 600 70 60 50 400 40 300 30 200 20 100 10 0 0 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 Number of IOPS 500 Source: Ritter (2004) Average First-Day Returns Number of IPOs (Bars) Average First-Day Returns (Diamonds) 40 80 35 70 30 60 25 50 20 40 15 30 10 20 5 10 0 0 Average First-Day Returns Money Left on Table (billions) Money Left on Table (Bars) Average First-Day Returns (Diamonds) 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 MLOT = (Closing Price – IPO Price) (Number of Shares Sold at IPO Price) Source: Ritter (2004) Long-Term Performance of IPOs (1970-2002) First Year Second Year Third Year Fourth Year Fifth Year Mean IPO Firms 6.8% 6.1% 9.3% 14.3% 9.9% 9.3% SizeMatched Firms 11.4% 14.7% 14.1% 14.5% 12.4% 13.4% Difference -4.6% -8.6% -4.8% -0.20% -2.5% -4.14% Source: Ritter (2004) IPO Puzzles: Bookbuilding Bookbuilding – Preliminary price set – Road show – Those who show a willingness to pay a higher price get more shares – Money “left on table” is compensation for revealing price information Trading Types of orders Locations Margin buying Short selling Order Types Market buy: buy at best going price Market sell: sell at best going price Price below the limit Price above the limit Sell Stop-loss (Stop-sell) Limit sell Buy Limit Buy Stop Buy Bid-Ask Prices The ask price is the price at which someone stands willing to sell. The bid price is the price at which someone stands willing to buy. Ask>Bid (always) Bid-Ask and Over-the Counter Markets On Over-the-Counter markets: – Only dealers post bid-ask prices. – All buy orders buy at ask (the higher price) • • • – Market buy Limit buy Stop buy All sell orders sell at bid (the lower price) • • • Market sell Limit sell Stop Sell Trading on OTC Market Investor places an order with broker. Broker tries to locate the dealer offering the best deal. Trades are negotiated through dealers who maintain an inventory of securities. Trading on Exchanges Investor places an order with broker. Brokerage firm contacts its commission broker or independent floor broker to execute order. The specialist “makes a market” in the shares of one or more firms. – Can act as both a broker and a dealer – Maintains a limit order book. – Maintains a “fair and orderly market” by dealing personally in the stock. Bid-Ask and Exchanges Any limit order is a bid-ask price – Any broker can post a limit order – These are arranged at specialist desk Last Trade = $50.00 market buy & stop buy orders executed at lowest ask market sell & stop-loss orders executed at highest bid Example of Limit Order Book Last trade: $50 If a market buy for 100 shares comes in, what price will it get? At what price will the next market buy be filled? If you were the specialist, would you want to increase or decrease your inventory? Costs of Trading Commission – Fee paid to broker Bid-Ask Spread – Bid: Price dealer will buy from you – Ask: Price dealer will sell to you Market Impact – Larger orders impact the market price Taxes – Government taxes realized capital gains for taxable investors. Exchange vs. Nasdaq Lower direct costs to list and trade on Nasdaq – No physical location to maintain Indirect costs of Trading on Nasdaq – Price Discovery – Collusion (Paul Schultz, Notre Dame) – Trading through (next slide) Trading Through Dealer posts: bid $20, ask $20.15 for 1000 shares Customer order #1: – limit order buy 1000 shares at $20.10 Customer order #2: – Market sell 1000 Dealer can – Buy 1000 shares at $20 (at her bid price) – Immediately sell for 20.10 – Pocket $100 – instant no risk Margin and Short Sales Buying on Margin – Use borrowed funds to invest in securities. – Bullish strategy. Short Sales – Sell securities without owning them. – Bearish strategy. Buying on Margin Suppose you have $10,000 and you are very bullish in Microsoft. You can borrow $10,000 from your broker at a 10% interest rate. Buy $20,000 worth of MSFT stock. What are the returns of this trading strategy if Microsoft stock increases or falls by 25% during the next year? Return of Buying on Margin MSFT increases 25% MSFT decreases 25% Value of Stock Position Pay Back Loan Net Value of Account Return 25,000 15,000 -11,000 -11,000 14,000 4,000 40% -60% Buying on Margin Federal securities law mandate limitations on borrowing. Limit is defined in terms of “the margin”. Equity in "Margin Account" Margin Value of Asset – – – A=L+E implies E=A-L = Price*Shares - Loan Initial margin must exceed 50% Maintenance margin set by broker Value of shares in previous example initially=$20,000 Value of loan = $10,000 Initially, margin is (20,000-10,000)/20,000 = 50% Example of Margin Calls Suppose now, that MSFT dropped within a year by 30%. Broker has set maintenance margin at 25%. The securities are then worth just $14,000. Your margin equals: $14,000 - $11,000 Margin 21.43%. $14,000 Your current margin is lower than the maintenance margin and you will receive a margin call from your broker. Three Possible Options to Satisfy Margin Call Close out position Reduce your loan Increase your equity position Risks of Margin Purchases Broker gives you a margin call if the maintenance margin is not met. Broker can sell your securities without asking for your permission The potential losses can exceed your initial investment. For example: MSFT: Loan: Equity: Initial Position 20,000 10,000 10,000 In One Year 10,000 11,000 - 1,000 Short Selling Securities are sold by someone who does not own them. How does this work? – Borrow the securities from somebody, – Sell the securities at the current market price, – Pay dividends to the original owner, – Eventually, buy back the securities and return them to the owner along with fee for borrowing Short Selling The broker keeps the proceeds Broker requires a margin account as collateral. Equity Margin Value of Stock Owed A=L+E Total assets = cash from selling stock + equity Cash from selling stock cannot be invested elsewhere Equity can be cash or some kind of security The value of the stock is a liability (varies over time) Always true E = A – L As value of asset shorted increases, equity drops Short Selling Suppose the current price of GM is $50. You expect the price to fall. You decide to short sell 2000 shares If initial margin must be 50%, how much equity do you need to post in your margin account? Value of asset shorted = 2000*50 = 100,000 .50 Equity Equity=50,000 100,000 Short Selling Suppose the price of GM suddenly jumps to $55. What is your margin? What is your total gain/loss? Assets have not changed: A = $150,000 But liabilities have: L=2000*55=110,000 E=A-L implies E=150,000-110,000=40,000 Value of asset owed = 2000*55 =110,000 40,000 Margin 36% 110,000 You have lost $10,000 of equity. Three Possible Options to Satisfy Margin Call on Short Position Close out position Reduce liabilities – Buy back shares Add more equity to your account Risks of Short Sales Broker can force you to cover short position – If borrowed stocks are called back from lender and broker cannot borrow different shares. – If margin call is not satisfied. What is the limit on losses due to short selling? Returns and Short-sales You have $100 of equity Current price of Intel = $50 Current price of Microsoft = $25 You are bearish on Intel and bullish on MSFT Short 1 share of Intel (get $50 now) – This money cannot be invested elsewhere – Assume return is zero. Buy 4 shares of MSFT – Assume these shares satisfy margin requirement 100(1 rMSFT ) 50 - 50(1 rINTEL ) GR 100 1 1 1(1 rMSFT ) (1 0) (1 rINTEL ) 2 2 NR 1* rMSFT 1 1 *0 * rINTEL 2 2 Returns and Buying on Margin You have $100 of equity Current price of Intel = $50 Current price of Microsoft = $25 You are very bullish on MSFT Invest 100% of your investment equity in MSFT Borrow $50 and also invest that in MSFT – Rate on loan is rF 150(1 rMSFT ) - 50(1 rF ) GR 100 1 1.5(1 rMSFT ) (1 rF ) 2 1 NR 1.5(rMSFT ) * rF 2 Example You have $1000. – Short sell $500 of Nike – Buy $600 of Oracle – Buy $900 of Intel Returns: – Nike: 5% – Oracle: -6% – Intel: 3% What is the return on your portfolio? Example Weight in Nike: -50% Weight in Oracle: 60% Weight in Intel: 90% Return = -.5(.05) + .6(-.06) +.9(.03)= -.034%