External triggers External triggers to the internationalization process Meta-level development in the world economy PEST analysis Internationalization of industries: globalisation vs. localisation (4C) Bi-polarisation External triggers to the internationalization process Driving forces toward globalization - opposite forces => tensions Current phase => Triggers may create conditions => Discontinuity => Next phase Movement: bidirectional increasing int’l exposure decreasing 3-Externel triggers-a 34 / 2 External triggers INTERNATIONALISATION Market penetration Product extension Meta trends Intern’l business development Restricted national market scope Geographical expansion Industry competition Product development Organizational dynamics Vision mindset RETRENCHMENT* Internal triggers Figure 2.1. Developing an triggers-a international business strategy 3-Externel 34 / 3 External triggers Discontinuity Current phase New international strategic thrust Next phase Internal triggers Figure 3.1. External and internal triggers to a stage change 3-Externel triggers-a 34 / 4 Three levels: –meta level –industry level –Firm-specific level Interrelatedness!!! Meta level: broad trends, collectively help to shape competitive environment Question: how they relate to individual industries and competititors 3-Externel triggers-a 34 / 5 External triggers TRINITY Meta level World trade PEST analysis Industry level Firm level Globalisation v localisation Bipolarisation Figure 3.2. External triggers at the meta, industry and firm-specific levels 3-Externel triggers-a 34 / 6 External triggers External triggers to the internationalization process Meta-level development in the world economy PEST analysis Internationalization of industries: globalisation vs. localisation Bi-polarisation Meta-level development in the world economy the “Triad” interblock trade direct investment dynamic adjustment 3-Externel triggers-a 34 / 8 3-Externel triggers-a 34 / 9 Triad 1/5 of global population, 4/5 of world output (GNP) more manufacturing/service divisions nationality of companies: outdated national government can not obstruct or impede raising import penetration: interlinked nature USA import: – 1970: 4.1% GNP – 1980: 9.1 % GNP – 1990: over 18% Main competitors for indigenous firms are increasingly to be foreign! 3-Externel triggers-a 34 / 10 Capitol market Global marktes Conflicts of national policies Goods, services Regionals markets Regionals markets National markets Regionals markets Integration, harmonization and protectionist regional policies Labor markets National employment, training and fiscal policies 3-Externel triggers-a 34 / 11 35% 740 m Western Europe 28% 350 m Central & Eastern Europe 7%; 390m 34% 760m NAFTA 30% 370 m South & Central America 4%; 390m 6% The ‘Triad’ 25% 2300m Japan, Australia & ‘Tigers’ 20% 400m China, other Asian-Pacific developing 5%; 1900 m 1700m Africa, Middle East, Indian subcontinent Figure 3.3. The ‘Triad’ and the world economy, 1991: percentage of world GNP; population in 3-Externel triggers-a 34 / 12 millions NAFTA 28% South & Central America 40% Western Europe 34% Central & Eastern Europe 22% Japan and ‘Tiger’ economies 68% 26% China & Asia Pacific Africa, Middle East & India 2001 1991 47% 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10,000 Figure 3.4. Forecast growth of world ‘Triad’ markets, 1991-2001: levels of GNP (billion 3-Externel triggers-a 34 / 13 USD) and estimated percentage changes over the period {World Bank] 1995: Uruguay Round of the GATT: significant reduction in the trade barriers cuts in tarifs bringing in farm products, textiles, services intellectual property rights conditions: when a state allowed imposing trade barriers World trade growth > world outcome=> XXI. Century: interlinked economy is likely grow faster => international competition is increasing more quickly than output grows EU, NAFTA: large unified regional trading area Liberalization promoted inter- and intra-block trade! 3-Externel triggers-a 34 / 14 Intra-Europe 1214.0 $bn (35,4%) Europe 129.3 $bn (3.7%) 174,7 $bn (4.9%) 152.7 $bn (4.4%) 184.8 $bn (5.3%) Asia America 153.6 $bn (4.4%) 236.4 $bn (6.7%) Intra-Americas 270.4 $bn (7.7%) Key: = Exports to Intra-Asia 413.5 $bn (11.8%) Others: 14.9% Figure 3.5. Projected merchandise trade in US$ billion and as a percentage of world 3-Externel 34 / 15 trade for the year triggers-a 2005 [GATT Report] 1987 1988 1989 1995 87 100 80 63 63 54 60 40 20 0 -7 -20 -40 -22 -5 -25 -8 -24 -33 -18 -18 -21 -34 -60 -51 Europe USA Japan Rest of world Figure 3.6. Trade balance of world electronics industry: surplus/deficit in US$ billion 3-Externel triggers-a 34 / 16 Direct investments raising exchange rates (Japan, Germany) hard to raise productivity Foreign assets: Japan $514 bl, Germany $300bl (1992) World trade flows increasingly reflect the locational decisions of international competitors and not just the competitive position of indigenous nationally owned companies! …never has an economy passed so quickly as Japan from nonindustrialised backwater, through industrial giant, and now towards threatened industrial3-Externel dinosaur all triggers-a-34 / in one generation.* 17 Dynamic adjustment success eventually brings attendant difficulties (Japan, Germany) facing structural challenges: raising affluence erroding cost bases home manufacturing base: less and less competitive loss of export sales and employment adjustments (time leg) Undermines the success of the previously rapidly growing economies => Enables new countries to become preferred production base! Trade protection: only a temporary solution Protection removes the competitive pressure Protection removed: adjustment more dramatic!!* 3-Externel triggers-a 34 / 18 The dynamics of the TRIAD world economy create instability and change, but there can be no such thing as absolute winners or losers. •Winning becomes increasingly expensive as wages and currencies are adjusted upwards. •Loser economies, by contrast, are able to rejuvenate in the long term since an unemployed workforce is available at reasonable cost and backed by a week currency. Time legs to this process ensure that the adjustment process is slow, with changes in political, technological and social factors •either reinforcing the economic adjustment process •or retarding it.* 3-Externel triggers-a 34 / 19 External triggers External triggers to the internationalization process Meta-level development in the world economy PEST analysis Internationalization of industries: globalisation vs. localisation Bi-polarisation PEST analysis – Political-Economic drivers – Social (lifestyle) changes – Technological development –Linking PEST and meta-level changes 3-Externel triggers-a 34 / 21 Political-Economic drivers-1 Indian car component industry Indian companies: equipment suppliers Main advantages: low cost, lax environment controls long engineering tradition Cost effective country for hot and dirty operations: forging of heavy components manual assembly 3-Externel triggers-a 34 / 22 Political-Economic drivers-2 Disadvantage: adequate infrastructure reputation for poor quality Rejected as original equipment manufacturers => only spare parts => low cost, low quality spares (half price) => undermines to supply original equipment LOW COST IS AN INSUFFICIENT COMPETITIVE BASE! 3-Externel triggers-a 34 / 23 political forces: brought liberalization economic forces: responsible for many of underlying dynamics – cost differencials – exchange rates – must recognise all inputs – customers: not looking for low cost at the expense of quality worldwide shift in economic location: attributed to labor cost competitiveness; but: – productivity – quality 3-Externel triggers-a 34 / 24 Germany 25.10 Japan 24.89 USA 16.98 16.32 Italy France 15.30 seats exhausts UK 13.74 Spain 12.66 brakes 2.10 Mexico 0.00 Figure 3.7. World 10.00 20.00 Labour costs per hour/US$ 30.00 component supplies, labour costs per hour (US$) 3-Externel triggers-a 34 / 25 Germany 100 UK 60 Italy 51 50 USA Japan 47 France Germany: 100% 40 Spain 27 12 Mexico 0 20 Figure 3.8. Index 40 60 80 labour 3-Externel cost per unit of output (US$) triggers-a 34 / 100 26 Home based production => continuing appreciation in the country’s exchange rate –drive down costs –locate production cross-border –increase cross-border production Otherwise: squeezed out of international markets The location of low cost economic facilities is constantly changing! 3-Externel triggers-a 34 / 27 SANRITSU ELECTRIC (Tokushima plant, appreciation Shikoku island – currently: Reason: yen’s sharp idle) Plus:product prices fell for 26 years (CD, Sanyo Electric’ supplier - intensified competition radio, casette player) 1993 August: nohigher longercost ordering Japanese firms with => increasingly source products oversees! New source: Singapur! October: Tokushima run out of orders! 3-Externel triggers-a 34 / 28 Entry of KIA Motors into the US car market 1994: replicate Japanese entry strategy in a high competitive market - under-price products - similar quality KIA-strategy: models in the low superiorreplace levels ofJapanese standard equipments price segments Japanese producers: increase price (response to $/yen rate) => gap appeared at the bottom end Japanese Toyotamanufacturers: Corolla, Honda Civic: from $12.000 •unable to match the lower cost base of new Kia Sephia: $8.495 entrants •unable to give premium price at luxory cars •increasingly caught in the middle 3-Externel triggers-a 34 / 29 Social (lifestyle) changes Powerful influence on customer choice World is becoming a smaller place –reduced costs of int’l travel –enhanced communication: information on products –worldwide homogeneity of consumers preference –convergence of customer requirements (cameras, jeans, soft drinks) Lifestyle trends: critical external trigger Continuing opposite directions may operatediversity: either –cultural andthe language identities •to accelerate convergence of the global –national economy states, separate groups: differences orbe recognized •continue to promote diversity 3-Externel triggers-a 34 / 30 NISSAN Manufacturing: Japan,Europe, North America Strategy: need to penetrate successfully Triad markets •customers in each Triad markets: vastly different needs No averaging across markets to reach a compromise •sub-markets: also design! - looks at Triad region by region Nissan’s believe: no universal world car! - identifies each market’s dominant •Basic models: meet some of the needs of each => to halve requirements •3/4 of sales: designed for specific markets ‘lead country’ model => tailored to distinct needs of the dominant national markets 3-Externel triggers-a 34 / 31 Technological development information technology data collation, analysis, transfer Promotescoordinate changes, adoption to changes activities from satellitediffuse technology location more e-trade, quickly, cheaply e-finance pan-country media, communication pan-continent media => linking stock markets => linking financial systems => finance company operations travel and transport 3-Externel triggers-a 34 / 32 Developing technologies Gene splicing biotechnology (USA 70’s), pharmaceutical industry Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) body scanners showing images + biochemical reactions, medical equipment industry High-temperature superconductivity 80’s, new ceramic materials lose electrical resistance at workable temperature Personal computers continuing advances: portable PCs rapid growth (Atari => Psion) 3-Externel triggers-a 34 / 33 Neutral networks military applications (Internet), industrial and financial sector: recognition, forecasting Communication satellites continuing growth and advancement (Berlin Olimpic Games => Telstar => moon “landing’ => Sidney Olympic Games) 3-Externel triggers-a 34 / 34