Lecture
GEOG 270
Fall 2007
October 8, 2007
Joe Hannah, PhD
Department of Geography
University of Washington
GEOG 270
Geography of Development and Environmental Change
Demographic Transition and
Wealth Flows
Two more Population Theories
Recap Last Lecture
Unchecked population growth always exceeds
the growth of means of subsistence
► Film: Future in the Cradle – the factual and
the rhetorical messages
Population / Food Production
Recap Last Lecture
Population
(geometric)
Food Production
(arithmetic)
Time
Today:
I.
Demographic Transition
II.
Wealth Flows Theory
Demographic Transition Theory
Developed in the 1940s to explain the
historic shifts in birth and death rates that
accompanied shifts from “traditional” to
“modern” society (at least in industrial
countries)
The Demographic Transition Model
► Pre-industrialization:
LOW GROWTH
 high birth rates, high mortality rates
► During
industrialization: HIGH GROWTH
 – declining mortality rates (due to improved
health and living conditions) plus
 Birth rates start to decline after a time lag
► “Modern”
industrial society: LOW GROWTH
 low birth rates and low mortality rates
Death Rate / Birth Rate
The Classic
Demographic Transition Graph
Time
Age Structure Changes
High growth rates
Low growth rates
Applicable to Developing Countries?
► Demographic
Transition Theory was
developed to explain historical phenomena
in the West
► Dem. Transition vs. Malthusian theory:
 Both link population growth with economic
develoment
 Malthus: dev’t requires lower fertility
 Dem. Transition: dev’t results in lower fertility
Ethnocentric Assumptions
(according to Robbins)
► Assumes
historically that fertility rates always and
everywhere have been high, in order to balance
high death rates
► Assume that pre-industrial societies would
not/could not control their own fertility
► Assumes that the only way to control fertility rates
is Western medical & contraceptive model
► Therefore, resistance to adopt contraception is
irrational, religious, traditional or fatalistic.
Contraception is rational and modern.
Chicken or Egg?
► Marxist
theorists maintain that capitalist
expansion causes increased populations, in
part to create a labor surplus enabling
access to a large and cheap labor supply;
► Demographic transition theorists say that
the people themselves are the cause of
overpopulation because they persist in
“traditional” approaches to their own
fertility.
“Traditional” Fertility Management
“… human populations have consistently
adjusted fertility rates to local economic and
social conditions…
That is, high fertility rates are not the result
of ignorance, outmoded religious values, or
lack of education but the result of social or
economic factors that people, largely
women, react to in order to adjust the size
of their families…” (Robbins, p. 147)
Critiques of “Standard” Approaches
to Population and Development
“Traditional demographic theory, and most
public policy and government analysts,
suggest that the rapid rise in population in
poor countries is due to… the importation of
Western medical technology and public
health measures.” (Robbins, p. 147)
The alternative explanation:
Capitalism Causes Overpopulation
► When
the poor work for wages, it makes
sense to have more children
 Increase the number of wage-earners
 Children take on domestic work, freeing adults
(esp. women) to work for wages
► In
fact, population in many parts of the
periphery began growing rapidly under
colonialism, before the introduction of
“modern” health care (e.g., Java 1800s,
Sudan 1920s)
II. Wealth Flows Theory
► Children
can still contribute to economy of
the household (extended family);
► Family security: providing for the elderly;
security in times of need (by increasing the
number of cooperating individuals)
► Increase political allies/clans
 All rational reasons based on the ability of
children to contribute positively to an
extended family household.
Nuclear Family Flows
► Children
in Western nuclear family model
“consume wealth” rather than “produce wealth”:
For 2004, the newest data available, the U.S.
Department of Agriculture estimates that
families making $70,200 a year or more will
spend a whopping $269,520 to raise a child
from birth through age 17. Higher-income
families in urban areas in the West spend the
most, $284,460.
(MSM Money central)
What changes are necessary?
► Are
contraceptive measures enough?
► Do Third World Societies “need” to
restructure the fundamental family unit
along Western lines in order to have the
incentives to reduce fertility?
► What unforeseen effects will changes to
family structure have on the rest of society,
on emotional, social and economic ties?