Population
Sources:
The World Food Problem
Leathers and Foster, 2004
World Hunger 12 Myths
Lappe Collins and Rossett, 1998
Hesketh et al.,
New England J. Med 353: 1171-1176
Wikipedia
http://www.lastfirst.net/images/product/R004548.jpg
Thomas Malthus
• 1798:
Essay on the Principle
of Population as it Affects the
Future Improvement of Society
– Population growth tends
to outstrip the means of
subsistence
– Food increases
arithmetically while
population increases
geometrically
– The poor can be kept alive
by charity, but since they
would then propagate,
this is cruelty in disguise.
Paul Ehrlich
• 1968: The Population
Bomb
• “The battle to feed all of
humanity is over.
• In the 1970s the world
will undergo famines—
• Hundreds of millions of
people are going to starve
to death”
World Population
World Population
http://www.theglobaleducationproject.org/earth/images/final-images/g-pop-growth-chart-map-sm.gif
Human Population Density
http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.theglobaleducationproject.org/earth/images/final-images/life-expectancymap.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.theglobaleducationproject.org/earth/humanconditions.php%3Fformat%3Dprint&h=279&w=600&sz=15&hl=en&start=3&tbnid=s2UwthIUrW89qM:&tbnh=63&tbnw=135&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dl
ife%2Bexpectancy%2Bmap%26gbv%3D2%26hl%3Den
Demographic Transition
• First, high birth
rates and high
death rates
• Then, improved
living standards,
health cause death
rates to drop
• Finally, low birth
rates match low
death rates
Demographic Transition
• 1750-1950: Occurred in
developed countries
• 1950: Began to see death
rates drop in developing
countries
• 2050: Projected
completion of transition
Demographic Transition
• Example: U.S.
History
– When agrarian
society, people
had many kids
• Source of
security, labor
Demographic Transition
• Example: U.S.
History
– When became
industrial, fewer
kids/family
• Lowered infant
mortality
• No need to rely on
children’s labor
• More opportunities
for women
• Happened without
birth control
Global Fertility
• 1950’s:
5
children/woman
• 1970’s: 4
children/woman
• 1990’s: 2.8
children/woman
• Replacement: 2.1
children/woman
Global Population
• Population growth rate is
slowing down and will
eventually stop
• Dip in 1960 due to 30
million deaths in China
– Great Leap Forward
Famine
World Population Projection
• Estimated to peak at 11 billion in 2200
World Population Growth
AIDS
• 40 million people infected
with HIV
– Many will die of AIDS
• Will not greatly impact global
population growth
• Will Impact some countries
• Losses by 2020:
– Uganda 45%
– Rwanda 35%
– Malawi 30%
Malawi AIDS orphans
Global HIV
Food Production per Capita
• Food Production per
capita is rising
worldwide
– But falling in Africa
• Food production is
keeping up with
population
– Otherwise food prices
would have risen
– Food prices have dropped
Food Production in Sub-Saharan
Africa
• Food Production in
Sub Saharan Africa
not keeping up with
population
Per Capita Production of
Calories, Fat, Protein
Progressivist View
• Things are good and getting
better:
–
–
–
–
Worldwide standard of living
Education
Health
Trade
• People are an asset.
• Population causes shortages
which raise prices,
– stimulating entrepreneurs to
satisfy the shortages.
• We end up better off as a
Julian Simon
result.
Progressivist View
• Two important
indicators of progress
and improvement in
life are
– Decreased Infant
Mortality
– Increased Life
Expectancy
Life Expectancy
http://www.theglobaleducationproject.org/earth/images/final-images/life-expectancy-map.gif
Revisionist View
• Adoption and spread of agriculture
have trapped humanity in a spiral of
– Population growth
– Ecological destruction
– Social tyranny.
• The problem stems from the
anti-ecological culture (religion)
of agricultural societies
– humans are above and not part of
nature (global ecosystem)
– and therefore can destroy it at will.
Civilization is based on
Agriculture
Daniel Quinn
• 1992: Ishmael
– Although population is 5.5 billion, we
produce enough food for 6.0 billion even
though millions are starving
– Because we produce enough food for 6
billion, in 3 or 4 years there will be 6
billion people.
– Then, even though millions are starving,
we will produce enough for 6.5 billion.
– Thus in another 3-4 years there will be 6.5
billion
– To halt this process, must face the fact
that increasing food production doesn’t
feed the hungry, it only fuels the
population explosion.
Social Equity View
• Problems of
– poverty
– overpopulation
– ecological destruction
• Are due to
– inequity of wealth
– unfairness of economic
and social systems
Frances Moore
Lappe, Food First
http://www.mediathatmattersfest.org/mtm05/img/frances_moore_lappe.jpg
If the world were 100 people
(2005)
• 51 male
– 49 female
• 60 Asians,
–
–
–
–
–
14 Africans,
12 Europeans,
8 Latin Americans,
5 from USA and Canada
1 from the South Pacific
• 82 nonwhite
– 18 white
• 67 non-Christian
– 33 be Christian
(Source: Family Care Foundation)
If the world were 100 people
(2005)
• 80 live in substandard
housing
• 67 unable to read
• 50 malnourished
– 1 dying of starvation
• 33 without access to safe
water supply
• 39 lack access to improved
sanitation
• 24 have no electricity
– Most of the 76 with electricity
use it only for light at night
(Source: Family Care Foundation)
If the world were 100 people
(2005)
•
•
•
•
7 have access to the internet
1 has a college education
1 has HIV
2 near birth
– 1 near death
• 5 control 32% of the entire
world’s wealth
– All 5 U.S. citizens
• 33 attempt to live on 3% of
global income
(Source: Family Care Foundation)
Both hunger and high fertility
occur when:
• Poverty is extreme and
•
•
•
•
Bangladesh mother
widespread
Society denies security and
opportunity to people
Infant mortality is high
Most people can’t get land,
jobs, education, health care, old
age security
Few opportunities for women
outside of home
Children
• Labor force
• Chance for a job in city
• Security
– major investment
– rational choice
Women’s Education
• Powerful predictor of
lower fertility
• Reflects opportunity in
society
Male Poverty
• Low self-esteem
• Dominate women and
children
• Thus more children
Examples
• Sri Lanka:
– lower price rice
• led to population decline
• Cuba:
– low prices for food and health care
• reduced population rate from 4.7 to 1.6
• Kerala, India:
– lower price rice, kerosene
• 1/3 birth rate of average in India
• Literacy for women is 2.5 times
average in India
Kerala, India
Family Planning
• Birth Control is responsible for only 1520% total fertility decline
– Thus population growth cannot be
brought down simply by family planning
or contraception
– but it can speed the decline
• Contraceptive use in Developing World
has increased
– 9% in 1960
– 60% in late 1990s
IUD: Intra Uterine
Device
• Demographic Transition requires
improved
– Health
– Social Security
– Education
Sterilization
• Encouraged by Western
donors for developing
countries
– Quotas are set
– Incentives are used
• Cash, roads, transportation,
latrines
• For hungry, choices are
limited
• 1/3 of married women in
India and China are sterilized
Indian woman
Puerto Rico: La Operacion
• U. S. seized in 1898
• Sugar companies set up vast
•
•
•
•
plantations
Small farmers evicted
By 1925, 2% of population
owned 80% of land, 70% of
population landless’
Unemployment termed
“overpopulation” by U.S.
By 1940’s light
manufacturing moved in
attracted to cheap labor, low
taxes
Puerto Rico: La Operacion
•
•
•
•
Young women were key to labor force
Problem was pregnancy
Result: massive sterilization program
Women coerced into sterilization
without being told it was irreversible
• By 1968, 1/3 of women childbearing
age were sterilized.
• Emigration and sterilization resulted in
population drop with no increase in
standard of living.
Bangladesh
• Intensive Family Planning in
Matlab region
• Contraceptive use doubled
• Resulted in reduced birth rate
• Cost was very high:
$120/birth averted
– This is 120% of per capita
gross domestic product
– Not replicable on a national
scale
China
• 1950s, 60s Under Mao
– children encouraged
– Fertility rate: 5.9 children/woman
• 1970-1979 new policy to cope
with overpopulation
– “one is good, 2 is ok, 3 is too many”
– “late, long, few”
• Have fewer children later
• greater spacing between
• Fertility dropped steeply to 2.9
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/asia_pac/02/china_party_con
gress/china_ruling_party/key_people_events/html/default.stm
Fertility decline in China
China One Child Policy
• 1979 “one child” policy enacted
– For urban areas
• Material benefits
– if have 1 child
• Social & official pressure
– If have more than 1 child
• 71% Chinese are rural
– Multiple children are common
• Fertility rate has declined
– But also declined in other Asian
countries without coersion
• Human rights violation?
Birth Control Methods in China
Skewed sex ratio
• Sex ratio at birth (2000)
– 117:100 male:female
• Maternal Hepatitus B may
account for much of the skewing
• Boys preferred
– Men care for parents in old age
– Women join husband’s family
• Care for husband’s parents
• Selective abortion of girls
– Use ultrasound to determine sex
– If first child is a girl, want second
to be a boy
– Illegal but suspected
• Female infanticide suspected
– before ultrasound