Availability Assessment and Analysis
Availability Indicators
Screen 1 of 22
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Identify the most used availability indicators, at both
national and household level.
Identify the criteria for selecting the appropriate
availability indicators.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Availability Indicators
Screen 2 of 22
INTRODUCTION
What are availability indicators?
Availability indicators identify what aspects to analyse
when you assess food availability in a country.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Availability Indicators
Screen 3 of 22
INFORMATION TO UNDERSTAND AVAILABILITY
Key aspects for understanding availability:
• Availability of basic foods, and their
nutritional components.
• Location of households, their
livelihood and agro-ecological zones.
•Seasonality in supplies and consumption and
key factors affecting local production of food.
• Factors affecting other sources of supply.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Availability Indicators
Screen 4 of 22
INFORMATION TO UNDERSTAND AVAILABILITY
KEY COMMODITIES FOR CONSUMPTION
Which foods are really important to basic consumption?
The first place to start is
making a list of the key
staples.
Another key thing to
understand is “substitution
of food”.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Availability Indicators
Screen 5 of 22
INFORMATION TO UNDERSTAND AVAILABILITY
NUTRITIONAL COMPONENTS OF BASIC STAPLES
Looking at the nutritional content of the food staples helps
link food availability to utilization in human consumption.
A common estimate is availability of
kilocalories, based on the staple
foods available.
Since diets may change during
the year, kilocalorie availability
may change as well.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Availability Indicators
Screen 6 of 22
INFORMATION TO UNDERSTAND AVAILABILITY
SEASONALITY IN SUPPLIES AND CONSUMPTION
What and how much people eat will vary, based on price
changes, season and geographic area?
There is an “hungry season”
between harvests, when household
stocks have been eaten or sold,
and the new crop isn’t yet ready.
Create a cropping calendar to see
these periods.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Availability Indicators
Screen 7 of 22
INFORMATION TO UNDERSTAND AVAILABILITY
VULNERABILITY OF HOUSEHOLDS
The vulnerability to a specific supply or availability problem.
If households depend on a
single source of supply
and that source is no
longer available, they may
be vulnerable, and you
need to highlight that key
availability problem.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Availability Indicators
Screen 8 of 22
INFORMATION TO UNDERSTAND AVAILABILITY
FACTORS AFFECTING LOCAL SUPPLY
Think of what is produced and what might negatively
affect production (pests, diseases, lack of rainfall...)
Positive factors could be farmers access
to improved inputs, or farmers deciding to
cultivate more land for food crops.
Government reserves may be used at any given point
in time and must be considered as part of availability.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Availability Indicators
Screen 9 of 22
INFORMATION TO UNDERSTAND AVAILABILITY
FACTORS AFFECTING OTHER SOURCES OF SUPPLY
Trade, food aid and policy aspects are other components
of availability
Availability may be reduced if your government
closes the border to imports or if a neighbour
changes import and export requirements.
Local and sub-regional analysis is needed to
add to the national and household availability
analysis.
It is hard to find an indicator for the policy side, but it should
not be left out of the picture on food availability.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Availability Indicators
Screen 10 of 22
POTENTIAL AVAILABILITY INDICATORS
Some potential indicators which might be used to collect
information on the key aspects of food availability are:
NATIONAL AVAILABILITY INDICATORS
AVAILABILITY INDICATORS FOR DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
MARKET AVAILABILITY INDICATORS
POTENTIAL HOUSEHOLD LEVEL AVAILABILITY INDICATORS
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Availability Indicators
Screen 11 of 22
POTENTIAL AVAILABILITY INDICATORS
If you develop a Food Balance Sheet, you will have the
following national availability indicators:
NATIONAL AVAILABILITY INDICATORS
Total production of
food staples (in
metric tonnes or in
kilocalories)
Estimated imports through usual
commercial channels and
announced imports through public
channels (food aid commitments)
Total Gap: difference between
total production and total
consumption needs, which is the
estimated amount needed from
imports (commercial or food aid)
Uncovered Gap: amount that
remains unmet given using
information on imports during a
typical year or the previous year
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Availability Indicators
Screen 12 of 22
POTENTIAL AVAILABILITY INDICATORS
NATIONAL AVAILABILITY INDICATORS
Strengths
They are useful at a national level for overall planning and
relatively easy to get estimates.
Weaknesses
The estimated food gap can give a false picture of high
imports needed if supply estimated from production or from
trade are inaccurate.
The Food Balance Sheet is not useful for understanding who
is food insecure.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Availability Indicators
Screen 13 of 22
POTENTIAL AVAILABILITY INDICATORS
To predict production, you can use a combination of
indicators for area planted and potential yield.
AVAILABILITY INDICATORS FOR DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
Yield estimates
Total area planted
Current season’s rainfall pattern
compared to 5 year average (graph by
month, week, or 10-day period)
Use of improved inputs
Damage caused by pests and diseases
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Availability Indicators
Screen 14 of 22
POTENTIAL AVAILABILITY INDICATORS
Markets may provide part of the puzzle on availability.
MARKET AVAILABILITY INDICATORS
Prices and price shifts
for main staples
Stocks held by private
and public sector
Road and transport access, road
closures, security problems limiting
transport
Percentage of all weather roads
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Availability Indicators
Screen 15 of 22
POTENTIAL AVAILABILITY INDICATORS
MARKET AVAILABILITY INDICATORS
Strengths
Prices as indicators may be
regularly collected and easily
available, at least for the
main markets.
Data on stock being held by
the government should be
available to you without a high
cost.
Weaknesses
Prices as indicators must be
systematically collected at
identified market levels (wholesale,
retail). They are very rough, as they
combine both supply and demand.
Prices need to be carefully
interpreted.
Data on price of stocks being held by
the private sector may be more
difficult to access, as business people
tend to guard information.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Availability Indicators
Screen 16 of 22
POTENTIAL AVAILABILITY INDICATORS
Household availability may be based strictly on current
stocks of food.
POTENTIAL HOUSEHOLD LEVEL
AVAILABILITY INDICATORS
Months of food availability
from own production and
stocks of food staples
Annual
Seasonal
Total kilocalories
produced of basic
staples compared
to total kilocalorie
needs of
household over
the year
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Availability Indicators
Screen 17 of 22
POTENTIAL AVAILABILITY INDICATORS
POTENTIAL HOUSEHOLD LEVEL
AVAILABILITY INDICATORS
Strengths
Critical to:
• understand availability
within different
regions of your country;
and
• identify households
with severe threats to
food security.
Weaknesses
• May require survey
research, not quick to collect
and requiring resources.
• Must be put into a context
over time to see changes.
• Must be combined with
access indicators to
understand food insecurity at
the household level.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Availability Indicators
Screen 18 of 22
SELECTING AVAILABILITY INDICATORS
How to select the best mix of indicators
to understand a specific situation?
A good availability indicator should...
• Be relevant for decision making
• Reflect the reality
• Use resources efficiently
• Reflect seasonal and geographic differences
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Availability Indicators
Screen 19 of 22
SELECTING AVAILABILITY INDICATORS
Two other valuable qualities of indicators are:
By estimating indicators that are used
by other countries, you can better
understand your own situation and how
availability over a set of countries may
be affected in a crisis.
Indicators are useful for other
purposes. For example, the Food
Balance Sheet is often a multi-agency
effort, with Ministries, agencies and
donors working together.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Availability Indicators
Screen 20 of 22
SUMMARY
The national indicators are good for understanding the overall situation and
possibility for large-scale disruptions due to a production shortfall.
Completing the basic supply and demanding part of an FBS on a sub-national level
and seasonal basis, give greater detail in the picture of availability and what might
affect it.
Production estimates may be simple trend predictions with modifications for shifts in
yield and area. More elaborate models may be used to forecast production, but that
will require more advanced skills and resources.
At the market level, most of the work will be in the access side of things, but simple
price graphing over time can help to identify availability constraints.
At the household level, knowing how long stocks will last and when the next harvest
will come can be critical indicators of possible food insecurity. If many of your farmers
rely heavily on their own production, you will find production shortfalls good predictors
of stress. Reporting on levels of household stocks and their differences with a typical
year will give policy makers a measure of the availability from own production.
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Availability Indicators
Screen 21 of 22
IF YOU WANT TO KNOW MORE...
Online resources:
FAO (2002). Food Balance Sheets and Food Consumption Surveys: A Comparison of Methodologies and
Results. Paper #7 for the Project on Intensified Monitoring of Food Security in CIS Low Income Food-Deficit
Countries Rome: FAO Agricultural and Development Economics Division (ESA). (in PDF)
(http://www.foodsec.org/DL/course/shortcourseFA/en/pdf/7_FBS_FCS.pdf)
FAO (2002). Training in Crop Monitoring and Forecasting. Paper #1 for the Project on Intensified Monitoring
of Food Security in CIS Low Income Food-Deficit Countries, Rome: FAO Agricultural and Development
Economics Division (ESA). (in PDF)
(http://www.foodsec.org/DL/course/shortcourseFA/en/pdf/1_crop.pdf)
Aube, Thierry (2005). Improving the Methodology for Joint FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment
Missions: Estimating Commercial Imports. Rome, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), GIEWS.
Available at (http://www.fao.org/giews/english/tools.htm)
FAO (undated). Nutritive Factors, Rome: FAO Agricultural and Development Economics Division (ESA).
Accessed March 8, 2007. (http://www.fao.org/es/ess/xxx.asp)
FAO (2006). Cassava Assessing Handbook for Improved Integration of Cassava in the FAO/WFP Joint Crop
and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM). Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
(http://www.fao.org/giews/english/tools/Cassava_Guidelines.pdf)
FAO (2006). FAOSTAT website on Supply Utilization Accounts (SUA) and Food Balance Sheets (FBS).
Accessed August 3, 2006. (http://faostat.fao.org/site/354/default.aspx)
FAO Statistics Division. Website on Supply Utilization Accounts and Food Balance Sheets in the Context of
a National Statistical System. (http://www.fao.org/es/ess/suafbs.asp)
Availability Assessment and Analysis
Availability Indicators
Screen 22 of 22
IF YOU WANT TO KNOW MORE...
Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS) (2006). Crop
Prospects and Food Situation. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), GIEWS.
(http://www.fao.org/giews/english/cpfs/index.htm)
FAO. 2007. Crop Prospects and Food Situation, Vol. 1 (February): 2007.
(http://www.fao.org/docrep/009/j9247e/j9247e06.htm#21)
GIEWS Crop Prospects and Food Situation - No. 1 February 2007
(http://www.fao.org/docrep/009/j9247e/j9247e00.htm)
Food Security Analysis Unit – Somalia. 2007. Special Brief: Post-Deyr 06/07 Analysis. Nairobi,
Kenya: Food Security Analysis Unit (FSAU) – Somalia.
(http://www.fsausomali.org/uploads/Other/941.pdf)
Maxwell, S., and T. Frankenberger (1992). Household Food Security Indicators: Concepts,
Indicators, Measurements: A Technical Review. New York and Rome: United Nations Children’s
Fund (UNICEF) and International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).
(http://www.ifad.org/hfs/tools/hfs/hfspub/index.htm)
Riely F, Mock N, Cogill B, Bailey L, Kenefick E. (1999). Food security indicators and framework for
use in the monitoring and evaluation of food aid programs. Washington, D.C.: Food and Nutrition
Technical Assistance (FANTA). (http://www.fantaproject.org/publications/fsind.shtml)
FEWSNET. 2007. Mozambique Food Security Update, January 2007. Washington, DC: FEWSNET.
Available at (http://www.fews.net/centers/files/Mozambique_200612en.pdf)