Calculating emissions from road
transport in Macedonia using the
COPERT 4 model
Igor Trpevski
University of St. Cyril and Methodius Skopje,
Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts
itrpevski@manu.edu.mk
Structure
•
•
•
•
•
Motivation
Copert 4 background
Compiled input data
Results
Summary
2
Motivation
• Air pollution in several cities in the country
• No significant study for air pollution from
road transport
• Significant increase in second-hand
vehicles since 2010 due to policy shift
• Diesel cars number in 2012 triples from
2000
3
Motivation
Imported vehicles
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015*
New
11927
8074
6739
5156
4101
4188
2284
Used
4224
(27%)
54445
(87%)
35788
(84%)
30127
(85%)
31056
(88%)
30919
(88%)
10996
(82%)
Total
16151
62519
42527
35283
35157
35107
13280
Source: National Customs office
* First 6 months
4
Copert 4
• Calculates emissions of pollutants from
road transport
• major air pollutants (CO, NOx, VOC, PM, NH3, SO2, heavy metals)
• greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, N2O, CH4)
• Covers all vehicle categories
• passenger cars, Light duty vehicles (LDV), Heavy
duty vehicles (HDV), two-wheelers (mopeds and
motorcycles
• Subcategory by engine class, or weight of HDV
5
Copert 4
• Also covers a lot of vehicle emissions
technologies from PRE ECE to EURO 6
• Can be used to calculate emissions from
1970 - 2030
• Can be applied in all European countries
6
Copert 4
• Compliant with the EMEP/EEA air pollutant
emission inventory guidebook
• Tier 3 methodology - exhaust emissions
are calculated using a combination of firm
technical data (e.g. emission factors) and
activity data (e.g. total vehicle km)
• Total emmissions = cold start + hot
emmisions
7
Copert 4 - Input data
• Activity data for fleet
• Number of vehicles per vehicle category (very important)
• Number of vehicles per sub-category
• Distribution of the vehicle fleet into different exhaust emission
legislation classes (very important)
• Mileage per vehicle class (very important)
• Driving conditions
• Average speed and share in different driving modes – urban, rural
highway
• Other variables
• Climatic conditions
• Mean trip distance
8
Fleet data
We started with …
• Number of vehicles in 2012 per category and
fuel type (gasoline, diesel, LPG)
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•
•
•
•
Passenger cars
Busses
Two-wheelers
Light duty vehicles
Heavy duty vehicles
• Road tractors
• Agricultural vehicles
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Fleet data
• No emission technology data
Used age distribution as a proxy
for estimating emission
technology in the vehicles
pre ECE
vehicles
up to 1971
ECE 15 00
& 01
1972 to 1977
ECE 15 02
1978 to 1980
ECE 15 03
1981 to 1985
ECE 15 04
1985 to 1992
Euro 1
1992 to 1996
Euro 2
1996 to 2000
Euro 3
2000 to 2004
Euro 4
2005 to 2010
Euro 5
2010- 2012
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Fleet data
• For each vehicle category we have the number of
vehicles produced dating back to 2000.
… before 2000 we know only the total sum
• Most cars imported since 2010 were Euro 1 and Euro 2
i.e. production year before 2000
• Higher uncertainty in these vehicles
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Fleet data
• Other gaps in the data included:
• No engine capacity data
• No weight categorization for HDV
• Had to rely on homologation statistics which are
10~20% sample of the whole fleet
• Mileage data was used from the FLEETS project
12
Input data
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•
•
•
Trip length - 12km
Trip duration - 12 minutes
Average monthly temperatures from WMO
Fuel effect year - 2005
13
Fuel balance
• After the first run Gasoline and LPG mileage were
lowered to achieve fuel balance
Statistical (t)
Calculated (t)
Deviation (%)
Gasoline (fossil)
111708
112854.3
1.03
Diesel (fossil & bio)
296975
275510.75
-7.23
33082
33499.1
1.26
LPG
Data for statistical fuel consumption http://www.stat.gov.mk/pdf/2013/6.1.13.82.pdf
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Results PM10
Total 365.33 [t]
15
Results PM10
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Results PM 2.5
Total 304.1 [t]
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Results PM 2.5
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Results CO2
Total - 1,382,793 [t]
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Results CO2 per vehicle type
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2012 vs 2030 diesel PC
2012
Type
Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l
Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l
Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l
Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l
Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l
Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l
Diesel >2,0 l
Diesel >2,0 l
Diesel >2,0 l
Diesel >2,0 l
Diesel >2,0 l
Diesel >2,0 l
Emission technology
Conventional
PC Euro 1
PC Euro 2
PC Euro 3
PC Euro 4
PC Euro 5
Conventional
PC Euro 1
PC Euro 2
PC Euro 3
PC Euro 4
PC Euro 5
Number
6579
17543
19736
12976
10876
5274
731
1949
2193
1442
1208
587
2030
Type
Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l
Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l
Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l
Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l
Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l
Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l
Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l
Diesel >2,0 l
Diesel >2,0 l
Diesel >2,0 l
Diesel >2,0 l
Diesel >2,0 l
Diesel >2,0 l
Diesel >2,0 l
Hybrid
Electric
Emission technology
Conventional
PC Euro 1
PC Euro 2
PC Euro 3
PC Euro 4
PC Euro 5
PC Euro 6
Conventional
PC Euro 1
PC Euro 2
PC Euro 3
PC Euro 4
PC Euro 5
PC Euro 6
Number
0
0
0
17886
15876
10184
18584
0
0
0
1987
1753
1132
1618
10542
1621
21
2012 vs 2030 CO2 reduction
CO2
Type
Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l
Diesel > 2.0
Hybrid 1,4 - 2,0 l
Hybrid > 2,0 l
2012 CO2[t]
303247
41199
0
0
2030 CO2[t]
267,200
37,397
18594
2065
% difference
-12 %
-9 %
PM10
Type
Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l
Diesel > 2.0
2012 PM10 [t]
117.48
13.71
2030 PM10 [t]
51.01
5.42
% difference
-56 %
-61%
PM2.5
Type
Diesel 1,4 - 2,0 l
Diesel > 2.0
2012 PM2.5 [t]
102.3
11.9
2030 PM2.5 [t]
36.25
3.88
-64%
-67%
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Source of electricity
Carbon intensity for Macedonia ~ 1300 gCO2/KWh
Region
Carbon Intensity
gCO2/KWh
BMW i3 EV
gCO2/km
BMW 116i
Petrol gCO2/km
EU28
430
55
135
France
71
9.2
135
Poland
1100
142
135
Macedonia
1300
166
135
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Summary
• Major source of pollution are recently
imported Euro 1 and Euro 2 vehicles
• The trend of importing them continued
through 2013 and 2014
• Shift in policy to stimulate replacement of
older vehicles
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Thank you for your attention
Igor Trpevski,
itrpevski@manu.edu.mk
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