5-1 CHAPTER 5 Bonds and Their Valuation Bonds: Facts and Motivations Bond valuation Finding price and yield Yield-to-maturity: Details A relationship between price and yield Premium, discount, and par bonds Assessing risk Default risk, interest rate risk, and reinvestment rate risk Bond ratings Types of bonds Bond contract terms and bankruptcy process 5-2 Top Five Largest U.S. Corporate Bond Financings, as of July 1999 Issuer Ford Motor Co. AT&T RJR Holdings WorldCom Sprint Date July 1999 Mar 1999 May 1989 Aug 1998 Nov 1998 Amount $8.6 billion $8.0 billion $6.1 billion $6.1 billion $5.0 billion 5-3 Advantage of Debt over Equity Interest expense is tax-deductible but dividend is not. Avoid earning/ownership dilution Avoid a high flotation cost for issuing stock. Flotation cost = Underwriting fee, Fee to investment banker 5-4 Example of Tax Saving with Debt Income Statement Revenue −COGS Profit Margin − Op. Cost Firm w/o Debt EBIT $5 −Int. Exp 0 EBT 5 −Tax (30%) 1.5 Net Income 3.5 Firm w/ Debt $5 1 4 1.2 2.8 30 cents savings for every dollar of interest expense 5-5 Who Issue a Bond? Domestically, Treasury bill, note, or bond: Issued by federal government, Called “risk-free” securities, about $4 trillion market Municipal bond: “munis” Corporate bond: our focus, about $5 trillion market Internationally, Euro bond (Dollar-denominated bonds sold in Germany by GM) Foreign bond: “Yankee” bond (dollar-denominated bond sold in U.S. by non-U.S. issuer), “Samurai” bond (Yen bonds sold in Japan by a non-Japanese borrower), etc 5-6 5-7 Bond Pricing: Cash Flow AMD (Issuer, Seller, or Borrower) Coupons at t=1,2, …. T Investor (Buyer, Lender) Face Value at T Price? Main Question: How much would be the fair price a buyer is willing to pay for this bond? 5-8 Elements of Bond Pricing 1. Par value (par): Face amount. paid at maturity. Assume $1,000. 2. Coupon interest rate (C or INT): Stated interest rate on the bond certificate. Multiply by par value to get dollars of interest to be paid. Generally fixed. 3. Maturity (N): Years until bond must be repaid. Declines over time. 4. Yield-to-Maturity (YTM, rd): The current market interest rate that is used to discount the future coupon payments and face amount. Or, the required rate of return to be earned from other bonds with same level of risk. 5-9 Financial Asset Valuation 0 1 2 r ... Value PV = n CF1 CF1 1+ r 1 + CF2 CF2 1+ r 2 + ... + CFn CFn 1+ r n . The value of any financial asset (e.g., a bond, a stock, a loan, etc) is simply the present value of the cash flows the asset is expected to produce. 5 - 10 An AMD Bond AMD Bond 10% Coupon $1,000 Par 5-year Maturity Suppose AMD issues a bond with a par value of $1,000 at a coupon rate of 10% for five years. That is, AMD promises to pay you $100 at the end of each of 5 years and $1,000 at the end of 5th year. Suppose the current market interest rate is 10%. How much would you pay for a bond now? 5 - 11 The Value of AMD bonds 0 1 2 r=10% Present Value 5 ... 100 100 1,100 =$1,000*10% 100 100 100 1, 000 PV ...... 1 2 5 (1 10%) (1 10%) (1 10%) (1 10%)5 90.91 + 82.64 + ...... + 62.09 + 620.92 $1000 5 - 12 The bond consists of a 10-year, 10% annuity of $100/year plus a $1,000 lump sum at t = 10: PV annuity = $ 614.46 PV maturity value = 385.54 Value of bond = $1,000.00 INPUTS OUTPUT 10 N 10 I/YR PV -1,000 100 PMT 1000 FV 5 - 13 What if a price is given?: What’s the YTM on a 10-year, 9% annual coupon, $1,000 par value bond that sells for $887? 0 rd=? 1 887 10 ... 90 PV1 . . . PV10 PVM 9 90 90 1,000 Find rd that “works”! 5 - 14 Find rd VB INT ... + 1 + 1 + r d 90 887 1 + 1 + r d INPUTS OUTPUT 10 N ... + I/YR 10.91 INT 1 + r d N + M 1 + r d N 90 1,000 10 + 10 1+ r d 1 + r d −887 PV 90 PMT Watch out a negative sign on PV. 1000 FV 5 - 15 Semiannual Bonds 1. Multiply years by 2 to get periods = 2n. 2. Divide nominal rate by 2 to get periodic rate = rd/2. 3. Divide annual INT by 2 to get PMT = INT/2. INPUTS OUTPUT 2n N rd/2 I/YR OK PV INT/2 PMT OK FV 5 - 16 Find the value of 10-year, 10% coupon, semiannual bond if rd = 13%. 2(10) INPUTS 20 N OUTPUT 13/2 6.5 I/YR PV -834.72 N Multiply by 2 YTM Divide by 2 INT Divide by 2 100/2 50 PMT 1000 FV 5 - 17 What if a price is given with semiannual coupons?: What’s the YTM on a 10-year, 9% semiannual coupon, $1,000 par value bond that sells for $887? 0 rd=? 1 ... 45 PV1 . . . PV10 PVM 887 9 45 20 In 6 mth periods 45 1,000 Find rd that “works”! 5 - 18 Find rd for Semiannual Bonds 45 887 1 + 1 + r d INPUTS OUTPUT 20 N ... + 45 1,000 20 + 20 1+ r d 1 + r d -887 45 I/YR PV PMT 5.44 x2 =10.88 Watch out a negative sign on PV. Don’t forget multiplying 5.44 by 2. 1000 FV 5 - 19 We are dealing with two rates: Coupon rate and YTM Coupon rate = A stated interest rate on the bond at the time of issuance, Usually fixed. Can be used to compute periodic cash flows to investors. Easier to understand. 5 - 20 We are dealing with two rates: Coupon rate and YTM Yield-to-maturity The compounded rate of return earned on a bond held to maturity if an investor re-invests all the coupon payments until maturity. Usually, same as the current market interest rate for a similar investment. Also known as the opportunity cost of capital, i.e., the rate that could be earned on alternative investments of equal risk. The discount rate that equates a bond’s price with the present value of its future cash flows. 5 - 21 YTM: Example 2−year @ 10% annual coupon bonds, YTM = 15% Price = $918.71 Now, assume that an investor re-invest first coupon income (t = 1) at 15% for one year. Then, total cash inflows upon maturity in year 2 is equal to 100*1.15 = 115 plus 100 plus 1,000 = 1215 Find I that makes a PV of 918.75 equal to FV of 1215 when N = 2 N = 2, PV = −918.75 , PMT = 0, FV= 1,215 I = 15% 5 - 22 YTM is a function of many factors! rd = (r* + DRP) + IP + Others. rd = Required rate of return on a debt security. r* = Real risk-free rate. T-bond rate if no inflation; 1% to 4%. DRP = Default risk premium. IP = Inflation premium. Others = Liquidity premium and/or Maturity risk premium. 5 - 23 Graphical Relationship Between Price and Yield-to-Maturity 1500 1400 1300 Price 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Yield Price and Yield move in an opposite direction! 5 - 24 Any explanation? 5 - 25 5 - 26 5 - 27 What would happen if expected inflation rose by 3%, causing rd = 13%? INPUTS OUTPUT 10 N 13 I/YR PV -837.21 100 PMT 1000 FV When rd rises, above the coupon rate, the bond’s value falls below par, so it sells at a discount. 5 - 28 What would happen if inflation fell, and rd declined to 7%? INPUTS OUTPUT 10 N 7 I/YR PV -1,210.71 100 PMT 1000 FV If coupon rate > rd, price rises above par, and bond sells at a premium. 5 - 29 Premium, Discount, Par Bonds If coupon rate < rd, bond sells at a discount. (Price < Par) If coupon rate = rd, bond sells at its par value. (Price = Par) If coupon rate > rd, bond sells at a premium. (Price > Par) If rd rises, price falls - very important. Price = par at maturity. 5 - 30 Examples: Premium, Discount, and Par Bond Example 1: Find the value of 10%, 10-year, $1,000 par value annual bond. Assume YTM = 10%. Example 2: Find the value of 10%, 10-year, $1,000 par value annual bond. Assume YTM = 13%. Example 3: Find the value of 10%, 10-year, $1,000 par value annual bond. Assume YTM = 7%. Now plot three bonds. Put price on the y-axis and yield on the x-axis. 5 - 31 Definitions Annual coupon pmt Current yield = Current price Change in price Capital gains yield = Beginning price Exp total Exp Exp cap = YTM = + return Curr yld gains yld 5 - 32 Find current yield and capital gains yield for a 8%, 10-year bond when the bond sells for $827.97 and YTM = 10.91%. $80 Current yield =$827.97 = 0.0966 = 9.66%. 5 - 33 YTM = Current yield + Capital gains yield. Cap gains yield = YTM - Current yield = 10.91% - 9.66% = 1.25%. Could also find values in Years 0 and 1, get difference, and divide by value in Year 1. Same answer. 5 - 34 Premium and Discount Bonds All 10-year Bonds Premium C = 15% YTM = 10.91% Discount C = 8% YTM = 10.91% Current Yield 12.08% 9.66% Capital Gain ─1.17% or Loss Yield 1.25% 5 - 35 Change in price of a bond over time: Suppose the bond was issued 20 years ago and now has 10 years to maturity. What would happen to its value over time if the required rate of return remained at 10%, or at 13%, or at 7%? 5 - 36 Bond Value ($) 1,372 1,211 rd = 7%. rd = 10%. 1,000 M 837 rd = 13%. 775 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Years remaining to Maturity 5 - 37 The value of a premium bond would decrease to $1,000. The value of a discount bond would increase to $1,000. A par bond stays at $1,000 if rd remains constant. At maturity, the value of any bond must equal its par value. Any economic rationale? 5 - 38 Changes in Bond Price over Time: Reality 5 - 39 Three Risks in the Bond Market Default risk: A seller may not pay me coupons and principal. Interest rate risk: A volatile interest movement may depress the value of my bonds. (also called price risk) Reinvestment risk: I may be forced to re-invest my coupon payments at a lower interest rate. 5 - 40 Bond Ratings Provide One Measure of Default Risk Investment Grade Junk Bonds Moody’s Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B S&P AA A BBB BB B CCC D AAA Caa C 5 - 41 Importance of Bond Ratings A rating is an indicator of default risk A lower rating means difficulty in selling new bonds as the company needs new financing. A lower rating means a higher interest expense in the future funding. A downgrades may have negative impact on equity prices. 5 - 42 Bond Rating and Market Interest Rates Rating Interest Rate Spread over Long Bond Rate AAA 7.20% 0.20% AA 7.50 0.50 A 8.00 1.00 BBB 8.50 1.50 BB 9.00 2.00 B 10.25 3.25 CCC 12.00 5.00 CC 13.00 6.00 C 14.50 7.50 Source: Applied Corporate Finance by Aswath Damodaran, 1997 5 - 43 What’s interest rate (or price) risk? Does a 1-year or 10-year 10% bond have more risk? Interest rate risk: Rising rd causes bond’s price to fall. rd 1-year Change 10-year Change 5% $1,048 $1,386 10% 1,000 4.8% 15% 956 4.4% 1,000 38.6% 749 25.1% 5 - 44 Value 1,500 10-year 1-year 1,000 500 kd 0 0% 5% 10% 15% 5 - 45 What is reinvestment rate risk? The risk that CFs will have to be reinvested in the future at lower rates, reducing income. 5 - 46 Buying a short-term bond and rolling over 9 years in a declining interest rate environment 0 1 0 r=10% 1100 1 r=7% 9 ... 1070 70 Or, Buying a long-term, 10-year bond in a declining interest rate environment 0 1 2 r=7% r=10% 100 =$1,000*10% 10 ... 100 1,100 5 - 47 Long-term bonds: High interest rate risk, low reinvestment rate risk. Short-term bonds: Low interest rate risk, high reinvestment rate risk. Nothing is riskless! 5 - 48 True or False: “All 10-year bonds have the same price and reinvestment rate risk.” False! Low coupon bonds have less reinvestment rate risk but more price risk than high coupon bonds. If two bonds with different coupon rates have the same maturity, then the value of the one with the lower coupon is proportionately more dependent on the value amount to be received at maturity. 5 - 49 Summary: Risks in Bond Trading LongTerm Bond ShortTerm Bond HighLowCoupon Coupon Bond Bond Interest Higher Rate Risk Lower Lower Higher Reinves Lower tment Risk Higher Higher Lower 5 - 50 Other Types of Bonds Treasury Bond: Issued by the federal government Callable bond: The seller has an option to buy back their bonds from bond investors. Convertible bond: The seller grant bondholders the right to exchange each bond for a designated number of common stock shares of the issuing firm. Zero-coupon bonds: “zeros” or “deep discount” bonds Floating-rate bonds 5 - 51 Callable Bond Callable bond: A 10-year, 10% annual coupon,$1,000 par value bond is selling for $1,134.20 with an 8% yield to maturity. It can be called after 5 years at $1,050. What’s the bond’s nominal yield to call (YTC)? INPUTS OUTPUT 5 N I/YR 7.54% -1134.2 100 PV PMT 1050 FV 5 - 52 Yield to Call A callable bond allows the issuer to buy back the bond at a specified call price anytime after an initial call protection period, until the bond matures. 5 - 53 How does adding a call provision affect a bond? Issuer can refund if rates decline. That helps the issuer but hurts the investor. Therefore, borrowers are willing to pay more, and lenders require more, on callable bonds. 5 - 54 If you bought bonds, would you be more likely to earn YTM or YTC? Coupon rate = 10% vs. YTC = rd = 7.54%. Could raise money by selling new bonds which pay 7.54%. Could thus replace bonds which pay $100/year with bonds that pay only $75.40/year. Investors should expect a call, hence YTC = 7.54%, not YTM = 8%. 5 - 55 In general, if a bond sells at a premium, then (1) coupon > rd, so (2) a call is likely. So, expect to earn: YTC on premium bonds. YTM on par & discount bonds. 5 - 56 Bond Indentures or Provisions Secured versus unsecured debt Debenture: Unsecured bond Senior versus subordinated debt Guarantee provisions Sinking fund provisions Restrictive covenants 5 - 57 Bankruptcy Two main chapters of Federal Bankruptcy Act: Chapter 11, Reorganization Chapter 7, Liquidation Typically, company wants Chapter 11, creditors may prefer Chapter 7. 5 - 58 5 - 59 Summary A bond is a debt security. YTM = Rate of return to be earned if holding until maturity YTM = Current yield + Capital gains (loss) yield Price and yield are negatively correlated. At maturity, price = par value A premium bond is not necessary “better” investment opportunity than a discount bond. Default risk, reinvestment risk, and price risk are three most important risk factors in trading bonds. Reinvestment risk and price risk can move in opposite direction for a given bond. Callable bond carries a higher reinvestment risk than a straight bond, from the buyer’s perspective. 5 - 60 Bonds Quotation at www.bondpage.com 5 - 61 Quiz You could buy, for $1,000, either a 10%, 10-year, annual payment bond or an equally risky 10%, 10year semiannual bond. Which would you prefer? The semiannual bond’s EFF% is: m iNom EFF% 1 1 m 2 1 0.10 1 10.25% 2