Warm-Up Exercise 1
Write down at least three sets of three numbers that fit this
rule: “Counting by fives”
Warm-Up Exercise 2
Imagine these four cards are sitting on a table:
A
K
8
5
Each card has a letter on one side and a number on the other.
Two cards are letter-side up, and two of the cards are numberside up. The rule to be tested is this: for these four cards, if a
card has a vowel on its letter side, it has an even number on its
number side. Your task is to decide which card or cards must
be turned over to find out whether the rule is true or false.
Which cards must be turned over?
Scientific Method Game
 I have made a rule for choosing three numbers. Your
job is to use the scientific method to do a series of
experiments to determine what my rule is until you are
100% sure you are correct.
 You should make a hypothesis about what my number
rule is, and how sure you are. Then, choose three
new numbers to test your hypothesis.
 I will come around after each guess and mark whether
your numbers fit the rule
Expecting the Unexpected:
Adventures in Scientific
Thinking
Amanda Charbonneau and Emily Dittmar
Hypothesis testing
1. The importance of ruling out alternative explanations
2. Testing predictions- a case study
3. Faulty science- a case study
Hypothesis testing
1. The importance of ruling out alternative explanations
2. Testing predictions- a case study
3. Faulty science- a case study
A
K
8
5
As seen above, four cards are sitting on a table. Each card has
a letter on one side and a number on the other. Two cards are
letter-side up, and two of the cards are number-side up. The
rule to be tested is this: for these four cards, if a card has a
vowel on its letter side, it has an even number on its number
side. Your task is to decide which card or cards must be turned
over to find out whether the rule is true or false. Which cards
must be turned over?
Hypothesis testing
1. The importance of ruling out alternative explanations
2. Testing predictions- a case study
3. Faulty science- a case study
Hypothesis testing
1. The importance of ruling out alternative explanations
2. Testing predictions- a case study
3. Faulty science- a case study
Hypothesis: Land animals
evolved from fish
Hypotheses are based on prior knowledge
What would the transition
have looked like?
Eusthenopteron-strictly aquatic, lobe-finned fish
-teeth similar to tetrapods
-two-part skull that hinged
-fin skeletal structure more similar to
tetrapods
?
Predict what features
you would expect in a
transitional organismbody features as well
as habitat? Where do
you expect it to live?
What might have been
the selection
pressures promoting a
transition?
Ichthyostega-robust limbs that could support its
body weight;
-fishlike tail and gills
-lungs
-amphibian-like skull (neck)
What, if anything, would change your mind?
“We would need just
one piece of evidence…
…We would need the
fossil that swam from
one layer to another…
Bring on any of those
things and you would
change me
immediately.”
Educational Resources
http://tiktaalik.uchicago.edu/index.html
Educational Resources
http://www.pbs.org/your-inner-fish/home/
Hypothesis testing
1. The importance of ruling out alternative explanations
2. Testing predictions- a case study
3. Faulty science- a case study
Hypothesis testing
1. The importance of ruling out alternative explanations
2. Testing predictions- a case study
3. Faulty science- a case study
Number of Enrolled Persons with Autism
Distribution of Birth Rates of Regional Center –
Eligible Persons with Autism
Wakefield 1999
1998 Lancet paper (Wakefield)
 Study
 12 children referred to the Royal Free Hospital in London
due to developmental disorders
 Parents or physician of 8 linked start of behavioral
symptoms with MMR vaccination
 It was later found that author had conflicts of interest ($)
 Author had applied for patents on a rival vaccine
 Author knew of test results that contradicted his claims
 Compiled data from five cohort studies totaling over 1
million children and five case control studies with over
9,000 children
 No relationship between vaccination and autism
 Components of vaccine (thimerosal or mercury) or
multiple vaccinations (MMR) were also not associated
with development of autism
Published in Vaccine,
2014
Bottom line Students should learn to think critically
 NGS
 Important as citizens of our society
 Better to not take “our” word for it (experts), but
evaluate the evidence – let the science speak for itself