Chart 1: Share of households with recurrent payment problems and
number of forced sales. 1989-2013
35000
14
Number of forced sales (l.h.s.)
30000
12
Recurrent payment problems (r.h.s.)
25000
10
20000
8
15000
6
10000
4
5000
2
0
1989
1993
Sources: Grindaker (2013) and SIFO
1997
2001
2005
2009
0
2013
Chart 2: Estimated average loss ratio1) for consumption-sensitive2) and
other industries. All banks except branches and subsidiaries of foreign
banks in Norway. 1997-2013
0.6
0.6
Consumption-sensitive industries
0.5
Others
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0
0
1) Loss as a percentage of lending to each industry.
2) Consumption-sensitive industries comprise the following: consumer goods, the furniture industry, retail trade, other
transport, construction excl. building project development and hotels and restaurants.
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 3: Estimated share of lending to industries. All banks except
branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks in Norway. 1997-2013
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Consumption-sensitive industries
Extraction of crude oil and natural gas
Power and water supply
Services
1) Adjusted for consumer goods and the furniture industry.
2) Incl. building project development.
Source: Norges Bank
2007
2009
2011
Primary industries
Manufacturing and mining¹
Foreign shipping
Commercial property²
2013
Chart 4: Estimated share of lending to industries. All banks and mortgage
companies in Norway except branches of foreign banks in Norway. 1997-2013
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Consumption-sensitive industries
Extraction of crude oil and natural gas
Power and water supply
Services
1) Adjusted for consumer goods and the furniture industry.
2) Incl. building project development.
Source: Norges Bank
2007
2009
2011
Primary industries
Manufacturing and mining¹
Foreign shipping
Commercial property²
2013
Chart 5: Risk-weighted lending to non-financial enterprises. All banks except
branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks in Norway. 1997–2013
60
60
Consumption-sensitive industries
Others
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
1997
Source: Norges Bank
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Chart 6: Risk-weighted lending to non-financial enterprises. All banks and
mortgage companies in Norway except branches of foreign banks in Norway.
1997–2013
60
60
Consumption-sensitive industries
Others
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
1997
Source: Norges Bank
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Chart 7: Risk-weighted lending to non-financial enterprises. Based on DNB’s
risk weights. Lending for all banks and mortgage companies in Norway
except branches of foreign banks in Norway. 1997–2013
60
60
Consumption-sensitive industries
Others
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
1997
1999
2001
2003
Sources: DNB Pillar 3 report 2012 and Norges Bank
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Chart 8: Banks’ annual loss ratios by industry. All banks except branches
and subsidiaries of foreign banks in Norway. 1997–2013
1.6
1.6
Consumption-sensitive industries
Others
1.4
1.2
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
1
0.6
0.8
0.4
0.6
0.2
0.4
0
-0.2
0.2
-0.4
0
1997
Source: Norges Bank
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Chart 9: Annual percentage rise in house prices and commercial property
prices. 2000-2013
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-20
-30
Jan-00
-10
Return on capital, IPD, all buildings
OPAK commercial property selling prices
House prices
Jan-02
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
-20
-30
Jan-10
Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Eiendom Norge,
Eiendomsmeglerforetakenes forening (EFF), Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi, IPD and Norges Bank
Jan-12
Chart 10: Correlation between house and commercial property prices (IPD),
annual percentage change. For negative values, house prices lead commercial
property prices. Annual lags. 2000-2013
1
1
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.2
Correlation between house prices and different lags for the IPD series
P-value
P-value = 0.05
-0.8
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Eiendom Norge,
Eiendomsmeglerforetakenes forening (EFF), Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi, IPD and Norges Bank
3
Chart 11: Correlation between between house and commercial property
prices (OPAK), annual percentage change. For negative values, house prices
lead commercial property prices. Annual lags. 2000-2013
1
0.8
Correlation between house prices and different lags for the OPAK series
P-value
P-value = 0.05
1
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0
0
-0.2
-0.2
-0.4
-0.4
-0.6
-0.6
-0.8
-0.8
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Eiendom Norge,
Eiendomsmeglerforetakenes forening (EFF), Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi, IPD and Norges Bank
3
Chart 12: Percentage change in consumption and housing investment during
episodes of declining house prices1). Median values
Housing market crash
All
house price declines
Other
house price declines
Housing investment
Consumption
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
1) Total of 114 episodes of declining house prices and 28 housing market crashes. Percentage change in housing
investment and consumption is measured from peak to trough of house price cycle.
Sources: Claessens, Kose and Terrones (2008 and 2009)
6