In-Depth ASEAN 2015
Presented by
Monsinee Keeratikrainon, Ph.D.
February 26, 2015
About Author
Positions held:
Executive Advisor, McKansys (Thailand)
Partner, Deloitte (Thailand and Southeast Asia)
Country Director, Frost & Sullivan (Thailand)
Delivery Head, Wipro Technologies
Senior Consultant, True Corporation
Product Manager, British Telecom
Academic works:
Guest Lecturer, Mahidol University College of Management (International MBA)
P/T Lecturer, Assumption Univeristy, Faculty of Science and Technology
Publication:
“Development of Telecommunications Infrastructure and Policy in Thailand: A Case Study
in Political Economic View of Telecommunications” (2010, Lambert Publishing House)
“Strategy Cookbook” (2013, McKansys ‘s Copyrighted Handbook)
Education:
Master’s and Ph.D., majoring in Telecommunications , Temple University (USA) 1997-2001
Agenda
Understanding AEC
Opportunities in ASEAN Market
AEC Readiness Preparation
What will happen after AEC?
Establishing
ASEAN Trade
Repositary
(แหล่งเก็บรักษาข้ อมูล
การค้ าอาเซียน)
Integration of
logistics and
transportation
systems
0% import
& export
tax
No custom
barriers
ASEAN will become a single market and production hub
Regional hub
of production
and sourcing
Free
movement of
labors in 8
MRA
categories
ASEAN
investors are
free to invest
in service
sector (70%)
Integration of
capital
markets
Opportunity for Thailand
Country Highlights
Lao
• Long-term risk from 1) corruption 2) relying on
Hydropower 3) poverty and ethnic gaps
•
Agriculture accounts for 27.98% of GDP and
employing 85% of the population
•
Besides trading and consumer business as the
second largest GDP contributor, garment is
heavily promoted
Vietnam
• Start 2013, inflation stabilized, real GDP growth recognized
• Biggest sectors are food and beverage (many export to
Cambodia and Lao) and also textiles (2.2 illion workers)
• High growth in ICT & electronics, followed by automotive
Phillipines
• Electronics sector used to dominate
($21 billion value) but in 2016 BPO is
expected to exceed at $26 billion.
• World’s largest BPO center
• Biggest export of education
professionals
Myanmar
• Lowest BMI’s Business Envionroment Rating in ASEAN,
second lowest in Asia after N. Korea
•
•
•
•
•
Prone to economic mismanagement due to leapfrogging
(like Vietnam). No proper protocol to control is in place.
Basic infrastructure, i.e. ICT and utilities are still limited
and not stable.
Gas and mineral are highest exported goods (56% of total)
Initiated excitement from awarding offshore exploration
licenses in oil & gas and building 3 major seaports with
support from Japan, China, Thailand
Big benefit to tourism sector, from 1million tourists in 2012
to 3 million in 2015.
Indonesia
• Manufacturing sector has been the largest contributor,
followed by argriculture and consumer businesses
• In 2013, Indonesia hits the highest growth record in the
tourism industry. It contributed 8.4 percent to the
economy.
Malaysia
• Electronics and electrical - more than half
of industrial exports
• Biggest palm oil exporter, second largest
producer in ASEAN (about 6% of GDP)
Cambodia
• The next Vietnam, driven by agri, 38% GDP
• Biggest manufacturing is garment, 16% GDP and
45% of manufacturing workers
• Construction sector growth at 30% per annum
• Tourists rise to hit 5 million in 2015, almost 20%
growth for the past 5 years.
• High short-term political risk, until CPP reform
• Big income gap, need strong population control
Singapore
•
•
•
72% of GDP in service sector, i.e. financial, ICT
Regional hub of MNCs, leading AEC initiatives
6
Remaining industrial sector is high-tech
CLMV trade-off between politicalrisks and economic growth
•
•
•
CLMV is emerged as major “new export destination” for Thailand.
Growth especially noted in Myanmar, Lao, and Cambodia (Average 7-7.5% GDP growth accordingly).
Consumer goods, especially commodity products (rubber, refined oil, chemicals and materials) are increasingly exported with
support from removal of tariff from AEC and more development of transport links.
7
ASEAN Growth Accelerators
•
•
•
Strong growth in consumption in almost all sectors, especially in emerging SEA countries, i.e. Indonesia and Vietnam.
Promising opportunity in consumer business and imported goods
Licensing and more investments in infrastructure driving economic growth
Foreign
Investment
More
Imported
Goods
Rise of Middle
Class
ASEAN Growth
Accelerators
Urbanization
Young
Workers
8
AEC Readiness
Preparation
ขั้นตอนการตรวจสุ ขภาพธุรกิจ (AEC CHECK3-UP
STEPS
)
pillars
of dianogsis
Step 1
Step 2
Step 3
3-Pillar
Business
Environment
Diagnosis
AEC-ready
Organization
Alignment
AEC Disruptors
Assessment
Step 1
การวิเคราะห์ ความผันผวน (DISRUPTORS)3จาก
AEC
pillars
of dianogsis
เปิ ดเสรี การค้ าสินค้ า
• ลดภาษีเหลือร้อยละ 0 ในปี 2553
• ยกเว้น CLMV ปี 2558
เปิ ดเสรี การค้ าบริ การ
• เปิ ดเสรี บริ การเร่ งรัด 4 สาขา ได้แก่
ICT (e-ASEAN), สุ ขภาพ, ท่องที่ยว, โลจิสติกส์
เคลื่อนย้ ายแรงงานฝี มืออย่างเสรี
เปิ ดเสรี เคลื่อนย้ ายเงินทุน
เปิ ดเสรี การลงทุน
• ลงนาม MRA วิชาชีพ 8 สาขา ได้แก่ วิศวกร พยาบาล
สถาปนิก นักสารวจ แพทย์ ทันตแพทย์ นักบัญชี มัคคุเทศน์
• เชื่อมโยงตลาดทุน และพัฒนาตลาดพันธบัตร
พร้อมมาตรการเปิ ดเสรี บญั ชีทุน
• ส่ งเสริ มและคุม้ ครองการลงทุนระหว่างประเทศในอาเซียน
ด้วยหลักการ National Treatment เพื่อสนับสนุน
3 pilliars of analysis
Industry Factors
Risk
Opportunity
Readiness
Step 2
วิเคราะห์ สภาพแวดล้อมธุรกิจ BUSINESS ENVIORONMENT DIANOGSIS
3 pillars of dianogsis
High
Blue Ocean
Red Ocean
รุ ก 100%
รุ กรับ 50:50
Opportunity
Readiness
Strike Zone
Monitor
Guarding
รอจังหวะ
รับ 100%
High
Low
Risk
Step 2
ความพร้ อม คือ จุดเปลีย่ นสู่ ความสาเร็จ
Step 3
พัฒนาแผนธุรกิจให้ รองรับ AEC (AEC-READY ORGANIZATION)
Step 3
COMMON ORGANIZATION ROADBLOCKS
Step 3
ALIGNING ORGANIZATION WITH AEC ROADMAP
The new quality management approach
Sales/Marketing
Customer
Support
Sales/Marketing
PR/CSR
HR
VM
Product R&D
IT
Operation
Step 3
ALIGNING ORGANIZATION WITH AEC ROADMAP
Brainstroming Exercise
How does your industry impact from AEC disruptors?
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Email: monsinee.kee@gmail.com